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Post by podboy on Nov 15, 2012 19:15:55 GMT -8
Selling 100 common shares tomorrow and opening up three Jan 15 390 LEAPS. Wish me luck
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 15, 2012 19:26:43 GMT -8
Here we see why 530 was so hard to hold: Stk Calls Puts 515 684 8,459 520 3,171 11,111 525 4,619 10,101 530 9,099 9,991 535 10,819 7,265 540 13,127 9,514 545 13,552 8,424 550 16,985 10,073 555 12,661 5,492 560 13,908 6,510 Well thank you so much, dumb bunny call buyers for adding ~7000 530 calls in one day! (Yesterday 530's were 1,983, so + 7116 - Wednesday's open interest numbers). Hopefully 525 will hold. I swear, being an AAPL investor having to navigate call buyers is like trying to be in the drug smuggling business. No matter how smart or well-funded you are, some degenerate meth head will still sell you out to the DEA and ruin everything. I had to BTC 10 Nov 17 525 puts today to avoid getting put into 1000 shares tomorrow. I bought them well over $100 OTM. So much for a sure thing! At least I made $11 on them, but today alone cost me $3. And of course my Nov BCS spreads are as dead as the Zune. 2012 is the year I really learned to to take 80% of profits instead of being greedy and holding out for 100%. Hopefully I will survive into 2013 to apply this knowledge. Holy fucking shit man!
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Post by steeler on Nov 15, 2012 19:26:53 GMT -8
At current valuation, AAPL reached the same ex cash PE as the low in 2011. Although the "fiscal cliff" may push AAPL down further, I think the bottom should be close.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2012 19:29:53 GMT -8
I think Apple should cancel the dividend at the next earnings call, which I know they wont and start buying back shares with the dividend money. The dividend IHMO has not benefited the stock at all and is so small in comparison to the daily 20 dollars swings whats the point. What is the point in a 2.65 payout when you are down 200 dollars haha. That isn't a safe value play. AAPL will never be a value stock its earnings are too volatile and dependant on a very small product base. Really AAPL is mainly a two product business iphone and ipad. I love apple and believe the company can be successful for many years, but if the iphone and ipad become unpopular so to does AAPL. This is not what I would consider a value investment it is growth and risk based investment. I am sure a lot people here think the dividend brings a lot of dividend/value investors, but it hasn't provided any stability in the stock price, so why do it? Why not buy back shares on dips? The one thing a dividend allows is ownership by institutions that are prevented from owning non-dividend paying stocks.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 15, 2012 19:32:24 GMT -8
After looking over DELLS miserable quarter it is no wonder AAPL is down in AH. PC sales are slowing down because of tablets and this impacts DELL substantially. Geeee, I wonder who would benefit from this? DELL has crap for a balance sheet compared to Apple, but here is the real killer. DELL had $13billion in revenue, their net profit was under 500 million. 4% net, time for a merger or they will go BK in 3 years. I imagine he money that they have been borrowing just got a little more expensive. Michael Dell is in real trouble now. The only problem with these big boys marching through the tar pits is that as they continue to falter, they drag the market down with them and they layoff employees by the 1000's. iPads will be the death of them. BTW, iPad started with Fidelity when Ike was in office :-)
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 15, 2012 19:39:41 GMT -8
Which would...get you in serious trouble for that one, chas. Unless there was a famous Ike who worked at Fidelity I don't know of, heh.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 19:54:10 GMT -8
(...) BTW, iPad started with Fidelity when Ike was in office :-) Ahem. Clinton.
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Post by lance on Nov 15, 2012 20:13:44 GMT -8
I feel this dip is so epic it will be taught to students years to come studying the stock market about how fragile and dangerous the stock market can be. At least I will be able say I was there for the ride however long it is.
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Post by rickag on Nov 15, 2012 20:19:45 GMT -8
I did a little research. I haven't used Fidelity but might for my retirement account. Why you ask. Because what I read today was that they will not open or manage any Hedge Funds. They had a statement saying that that would be a conflict of interest. Wells Fargo handles Hedge Funds and one of their plans is performance based. Hhhhhmmmm, leverage accounts versus stock or bonds accounts that are fee based.
I will do more investigating tomorrow.
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Post by magictrackpad on Nov 15, 2012 20:23:46 GMT -8
I don't deal in any options, just common, but I was looking at the site called aaplpain.com, and according to their chart, it says that there is a 98% probability range of $535 - $620, as of 11/09/12.
Does this mean that AAPL has to jump up at least $10 tomorrow? If it closes below $535, then isn't there only a 2% probability of that happening, if we are to believe what is claimed on that site and their chart?
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 15, 2012 20:39:09 GMT -8
Represents an educated guess. You should know that AAPL doesn't have to do anything from day to day. It does what it does.
Travis (owner of the site) isn't trying to mislead AFAIK, though he doesn't say how he arrives at his probability ranges.
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Post by magictrackpad on Nov 15, 2012 20:46:46 GMT -8
Represents an educated guess. You should know that AAPL doesn't have to do anything from day to day. It does what it does. Travis (owner of the site) isn't trying to mislead AFAIK, though he doesn't say how he arrives at his probability ranges. I obviously hope that their educated guess is correct. I also read that the amount of weekly options for AAPL is being increased by the CBOE. I wonder what effect, if any, that might have on the stock. www.optionmonster.com/news/article.php?page=cboe_increases_number_of_weeklies_75170.html
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 15, 2012 21:06:07 GMT -8
Here we see why 530 was so hard to hold: Stk Calls Puts 515 684 8,459 520 3,171 11,111 525 4,619 10,101 530 9,099 9,991 535 10,819 7,265 540 13,127 9,514 545 13,552 8,424 550 16,985 10,073 555 12,661 5,492 560 13,908 6,510 Well thank you so much, dumb bunny call buyers for adding ~7000 530 calls in one day! (Yesterday 530's were 1,983, so + 7116 - Wednesday's open interest numbers). Hopefully 525 will hold. I swear, being an AAPL investor having to navigate call buyers is like trying to be in the drug smuggling business. No matter how smart or well-funded you are, some degenerate meth head will still sell you out to the DEA and ruin everything. I had to BTC 10 Nov 17 525 puts today to avoid getting put into 1000 shares tomorrow. I bought them well over $100 OTM. So much for a sure thing! At least I made $11 on them, but today alone cost me $3. And of course my Nov BCS spreads are as dead as the Zune. 2012 is the year I really learned to to take 80% of profits instead of being greedy and holding out for 100%. Hopefully I will survive into 2013 to apply this knowledge. Holy fucking shit man! Yeah, what he said.....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 15, 2012 21:10:28 GMT -8
(...) BTW, iPad started with Fidelity when Ike was in office :-) Ahem. Clinton. George Clinton was vice- president in ....... 4th Vice President of the United States In office March 4, 1805 – April 20, 1812
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 21:13:58 GMT -8
Red thinks I'm a vampire.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 21:15:34 GMT -8
I concur that Nick N's latest blog entry is lovely!
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 15, 2012 22:54:53 GMT -8
I concur that Nick N's latest blog entry is lovely! Yes, and his conclusion deserves repeating/spreading: In the meantime, we all have less money. Spend this time on meditating about who you are as a person. You are not your bank account. Your happiness is not tied up with your net worth. What is your value as a human being? Who loves you and needs you? What do you love to do in your life and how is that related to how much money is in your bank account. I get up every morning and sharpen my blade at the things I love. How will that change if I have less money. Use this down time to find some inner peace that will last. Trust me this state of affairs will change sooner than later.
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