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Post by mbeauch on Nov 15, 2012 8:21:27 GMT -8
I feel for the guy. He has put his neck out there and the market has made him pay dearly. The market is irrational. AZ is trying to make sense of something that can't be rationalized. No sooner did he call the bottom it dropped another couple of bucks just to spite him.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 8:22:02 GMT -8
His credibility is on the line big time here. Ballsy move trying to call the bottom again. he also called for 20$ plus in a single day recently, etc. all short-term prognosis like that is clearly bull. He isn't a sooth-sayer. No one knows what comes next. Everyone makes WAGs, but that's all they are: WAGs.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 8:22:37 GMT -8
I feel for the guy. He has put his neck out there and the market has made him pay dearly. The market is irrational. AZ is trying to make sense of something that can't be rationalized. No sooner did he call the bottom it dropped another couple of bucks just to spite him. +1
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Post by Rupert on Nov 15, 2012 8:25:00 GMT -8
well he did call the bottom around $530 in June before it started coming back... but 5 months later the same bottom? ): ugh what's his rationale? Stock hit a -4.9M on the Chaikin Oscillator which has always indicated an $20 to $30 rebound and a bottom. So that is his thinking.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 15, 2012 8:25:38 GMT -8
Over the last couple of days AAPL has received several upgrades, yet nothing helps. It appears the analyst are trying their best to stop the madness, but the machines are in total control. Who would have ever thought 8 straight weeks of down was possible, not me. Not one single week of relief. There was the bounce to 650 that Wheeles called nicely, but except for that, it is beating after beating. In this environment, the only things that matter are hard numbers and momentum. Hard numbers aren't coming for another two months. So we need upward momentum to break out of this. And what happens if there is a miss in the numbers two months from now: do we descend to $300?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 8:28:40 GMT -8
If 522 comes and we don't hold it, I'm exiting a good chunk of my commons with the plan to spread that cash out in LEAPs from now until after earnings.
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 15, 2012 8:29:13 GMT -8
There has to be a bottom very soon. PPS has got ridiculously low. Apple is still a cash machine par excellence.
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Post by darrenhd on Nov 15, 2012 8:30:12 GMT -8
If 522 comes and we don't hold it, I'm exiting a good chunk of my commons with the plan to spread that cash out in LEAPs from now until after earnings. I'm reading a low of 525.60, but we're up a bit from that now...I bet the EO's will try again to get it down before the day is out.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 15, 2012 8:33:38 GMT -8
This just sucks.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 15, 2012 8:34:18 GMT -8
If 522 comes and we don't hold it, I'm exiting a good chunk of my commons with the plan to spread that cash out in LEAPs from now until after earnings. I thought 517 is the new 522 after div adjustments? by the way - have you all seen this: $1.5 Million of Apple Goods Stolen in iPad Mini Heist
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 15, 2012 8:38:03 GMT -8
This just sucks. hang in there! i imagine the upside will also be that much sweeter. i'm hoping for a 7% 1-day upswing once the real bottom is reached (then steadily climbing from there). for now we just gotta hunker down and let it ride (to a certain extent) *climbs under a rock*
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 15, 2012 8:39:01 GMT -8
In this environment, the only things that matter are hard numbers and momentum. Hard numbers aren't coming for another two months. So we need upward momentum to break out of this. And what happens if there is a miss in the numbers two months from now: do we descend to $300?[/quote Clear message from the politicals that they will avoid the fiscall cliff would result in a makret uptrend reversal, but each side seems stubborn and dogmatic. We need a postive statement from Apple regarding (hopefully) strong sales and/or a China Mobile deal. For what it is worth I saw the change in sentiment and placed all of my put spreads well underneath the 200 SMA, a 13 TTM PE and a 30 RSI. Thought I had rock hard support.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 15, 2012 8:39:24 GMT -8
Tuffet, you can't have it both ways. I for one have been pulling for AZ to be right.
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Post by The Big Toe on Nov 15, 2012 8:39:57 GMT -8
I'm thinking I may make a takeover move to buy Apple and take it private. With about 22% of the value of the company in cash, and if the company keeps growing at about 20% per year... I might be able to do this with no money down.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 15, 2012 8:41:53 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Nov 15, 2012 8:42:31 GMT -8
There comes a point when fundamentals, and to an extent technicals desert you, and you're left standing with your pants around your ankles wondering what the hell happened. Andy Zaky is experiencing that right now as plenty of AAPL shorts have in the past when it relentlessly climbed higher into the stratosphere, and analyst after analyst piled on with higher and higher price targets. As I said before, this move is all about liquidity, or lack thereof, and everything else takes a back seat.
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 15, 2012 8:43:23 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 8:43:33 GMT -8
If 522 comes and we don't hold it, I'm exiting a good chunk of my commons with the plan to spread that cash out in LEAPs from now until after earnings. I like this; however, at this point, IMHO, just wait for confirmation of a reversal. You don't need the absolute bottom. Less stress to enter in the direction of the trend, so you get in and start seeing green versus red.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 8:43:46 GMT -8
If 522 comes and we don't hold it, I'm exiting a good chunk of my commons with the plan to spread that cash out in LEAPs from now until after earnings. I thought 517 is the new 522 after div adjustments? by the way - have you all seen this: $1.5 Million of Apple Goods Stolen in iPad Mini Heist I believe the market prices in dividend payments. I'll only make adjustments to prior prices based on splits.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 15, 2012 8:48:24 GMT -8
Has anyone received the dividend yet ? Just curious when it will show up in my account ....
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Post by tuffett on Nov 15, 2012 8:48:41 GMT -8
Tuffet, you can't have it both ways. I for one have been pulling for AZ to be right. He's always been very quick to hurl insults at people who got AAPL wrong. Admittedly he was usually right in his reasoning, but there is a way to be right and prove your superiority without being a jerk about it (Exhibit A: Horace Dediu). The tables have now turned. He's wrong, $100 wrong, and he deserves every bit of criticism that comes his way because he was quite happy dishing it out when it suited him. As you said yourself - can't have it both ways. In fact, he deserves more criticism because he charges money for his service and gives off the impression that he's always right (which even before this correction was untrue).
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Post by sponge on Nov 15, 2012 8:49:16 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 15, 2012 8:51:06 GMT -8
I thought 517 is the new 522 after div adjustments? by the way - have you all seen this: $1.5 Million of Apple Goods Stolen in iPad Mini Heist I believe the market prices in dividend payments. I'll only make adjustments to prior prices based on splits. Perhaps an extreme hypothetical example of the math involved may help sway you. Suppose the quarterly dividend were $50 instead of $2.65. The share price would be about $95 lower, because the market prices in dividend payments, as you correctly state. So we'd be at $430 or so, well below the non-spilt adjusted $522.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 15, 2012 9:00:28 GMT -8
At these prices, we have broken the 'more than 25% off the highs' level. Still shocked, but this drop is hurting less I feel after the sudden 615-->550 drop.
One good thing assuming we as investors survive this to trade another day: at least we are building up the stomach to handle such irrational action (and hopefully building up the skills to react and protect/de-risk for the options players).
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Post by rob_london on Nov 15, 2012 9:01:10 GMT -8
The madness of crowds.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 9:02:57 GMT -8
This is the only good thing I've heard in the last two months.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 15, 2012 9:04:36 GMT -8
I should have gone with my gut when everyone gets too optimistic: take the consensus target and halve it; that's where we will end up.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 15, 2012 9:05:16 GMT -8
I love watching...going down in flames (Zaky). Not loving the drop though, obviously. Really unnecessary. Think before you post. Or don't post.
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Post by miguelfoogo on Nov 15, 2012 9:05:17 GMT -8
My Jan 14' Calls are so destroyed right now that I can't really go any lower. The way I see it, I have 13 months to either go insignificantly lower or significantly higher.
I guess I could have made some better decisions before, but at this point if I accept the position I am in, i suppose I can have a positive outlook about it.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 9:05:32 GMT -8
I believe the market prices in dividend payments. I'll only make adjustments to prior prices based on splits. Perhaps an extreme hypothetical example of the math involved may help sway you. Suppose the quarterly dividend were $50 instead of $2.65. The share price would be about $95 lower, because the market prices in dividend payments, as you correctly state. So we'd be at $430 or so, well below the non-spilt adjusted $522. My mind is tired. I'm reading what I wrote and don't understand why I wrote it. It makes no sense. Thanks
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