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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 15, 2012 9:59:16 GMT -8
Here is the biggest issue - we are trying to make sane conclusions out of insane actions....and we keep failing. Why are we shocked? It's not insane though. I'll say this again. 1. Typical quarterly profit-taking sell-off begins when we hit 700. 2. A month later we have blah earnings with poor Q1 guidance. 3. A week and a half later we get an unfavorable election result and new Germany worries on the same day. 4. Now, post-election, all we hear about every day is the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff. Solve the fiscal cliff, keep Europe stable and deliver a badass Q1 performance followed by strong Q2 guidance, and we will recovery QUICKLY. That's a lot to ask though. Just be patient. The 8 weeks of down are insane - at least for me.
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Post by frqntflr on Nov 15, 2012 10:03:07 GMT -8
i won't claim to understand the reason(s) for this drop from $705 ... but unless i see some clear signals that the end-game has started, i'm hangin in there with my shares Anyone with non-margined shares only, unplug and come back in 2013. This will look like a bad dream. 2013 ?? i'm more than willing to wait until Jan 01, 2013 (actually, maybe even a bit longer) and yes, even though i'm spread across 3 accounts, i'm not on margin on any of them
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 10:04:44 GMT -8
iPad, when would you start considering making a play based on volatility going into earnings? My thinking is that volatility is going to skyrocket leading into what may very well be the most anticipated earnings of all time.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 15, 2012 10:05:57 GMT -8
Loeb upped his stake in Apple from 425,000 shares to 710,000 shares.
I assume many of you saw this but just an fyi -- this is off the filings
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 10:06:29 GMT -8
I'm not looking at my accounts until we're back over 600. I set limit orders a while ago (stinkers to add to longs + profit-taking on SPY hedges).
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Post by johng on Nov 15, 2012 10:11:41 GMT -8
I was wrong the other day. I can set up spreads in my RRSP account. Just traded my first ever BCS. A few JAN 14 700/800 at $12. Good test and use of my divvy payment Good job!!! Lovie I nibbled on Jan 14 600/700 at 23.40 Spreads RULE! cheers to the longs JohnG
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 10:12:11 GMT -8
Sold 1/10 of my commons. Cost basis 322.50. Still a win.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 10:14:28 GMT -8
iPad, when would you start considering making a play based on volatility going into earnings? My thinking is that volatility is going to skyrocket leading into what may very well be the most anticipated earnings of all time. I wouldn't. Volatility did nothing before JUL'12 earnings, so there's no guarantee it will do anything. I no longer trade events, especially earnings...with two exceptions (JUL'11 and JAN'12), price rarely behaves as I expect short-term.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 15, 2012 10:15:21 GMT -8
JohnG, well done!!!!!
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Post by mcharliem on Nov 15, 2012 10:16:31 GMT -8
Anyone here familiar with Amara's law? It states: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." It's not just technology, I think it fits Apple to a tee. The media is always disappointed with Apple product launches because they were expecting something more, but they're completely oblivious to the long term implications of what Apple's doing. Likewise, there's a huge story unfolding right now that isn't getting enough attention, and that's the ever increasing likelihood of a Windows 8 flop. I don't know how anyone can look at the Surface launch and the Windows 8 launch as anything other than underwhelming. And if these new products end up flopping, it's the beginning of the end for Microsoft. Here's a piece worth reading: semiaccurate.com/2012/11/14/microsoft-has-failed/If we're seeing the beginning of the end of Microsoft, think of all the revenue that will be up for grabs 5-10 years from now. Microsoft, Intel, Dell, HP, the list goes on and on for companies that rely almost exclusively on Windows. That revenue won't disappear overnight, but once it starts its downward trend it won't be reversing. And I think Apple is the best positioned company of all to benefit from it leaving Windows and moving elsewhere. It's hard for anyone to focus on anything other than AAPL's share price, but I don't think there's anything more important to Apple's long term future than Microsoft's huge make-or-break moment going on right now.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 15, 2012 10:19:59 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm even asking this question. It seemed ridiculous a few weeks ago.
What are the odds we fall below 450 by Jan13 options expiration. slim to none 20% We have no idea so maybe punch out now
Holding a 400/450 BCS that I should have punched out of a long time ago but i was trying to defer taxes on all that gain but now i'm wondering oh crap will I lose all the gain and part or all of my cost.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 15, 2012 10:24:43 GMT -8
throwing the towel in. Its been real its been fun. but it hasn't been real fun.
*selling half of OTM calls to focus on shorter term calls. If we fall to 400s im depleted. if we rise then ill start believing im the MAN like i did 8 weeks ago..
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 10:26:11 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm even asking this question. It seemed ridiculous a few weeks ago. What are the odds we fall below 450 by Jan13 options expiration. slim to none 20% We have no idea so maybe punch out now Holding a 400/450 BCS that I should have punched out of a long time ago but i was trying to defer taxes on all that gain but now i'm wondering oh crap will I lose all the gain and part or all of my cost. Slim to none. I don't see it barring a complete market collapse.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 15, 2012 10:29:44 GMT -8
Kass (who went long at 540ish): "Vague rumors of an accelerated buyback at Apple this afternoon"
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 10:33:57 GMT -8
Just used half my available cash to open JUL 700/710 BCS @ 1.20. Will have lots more cash coming from the sale of my commons next week.
I just have this warm fuzzy feeling right now. Might be because the sun is shining on me though.
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Post by rickag on Nov 15, 2012 10:37:43 GMT -8
Sold 1/10 of my commons. Cost basis 322.50. Still a win. Hope you don't mind my asking why. Will you be reinvesting in other stocks or options? If I were selling some of my common stock, but I'm not, it would be going directly into options at this point. I am actually thinking of closing some mutual funds and buying AAPL. Good luck whatever happens. Never mind I see your next post.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 15, 2012 10:38:10 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm even asking this question. It seemed ridiculous a few weeks ago. What are the odds we fall below 450 by Jan13 options expiration. slim to none 20% We have no idea so maybe punch out now Holding a 400/450 BCS that I should have punched out of a long time ago but i was trying to defer taxes on all that gain but now i'm wondering oh crap will I lose all the gain and part or all of my cost. FWIW, you might think about what percent of the fifty width spread you have captured I.e. say 45 out the potential 50 would be 90%. So you would be risking 90 to make ten I.e. a fair bet is that you think less than 10% chance... I made up the 45 pls check yourself. Also, you could do a macro hedge if believe that the only way you see repeat of the tarp vote in 2008 for the fiscal cliff. You hedge out with QQQ Finally, you set a stop loss say 90% can't drop to more than 75%. Hope it helps
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Post by spoonman on Nov 15, 2012 10:43:04 GMT -8
I can't believe I'm even asking this question. It seemed ridiculous a few weeks ago. What are the odds we fall below 450 by Jan13 options expiration. slim to none 20% We have no idea so maybe punch out now Holding a 400/450 BCS that I should have punched out of a long time ago but i was trying to defer taxes on all that gain but now i'm wondering oh crap will I lose all the gain and part or all of my cost. FWIW, you might think about what percent of the fifty width spread you have captured I.e. say 45 out the potential 50 would be 90%. So you would be risking 90 to make ten I.e. a fair bet is that you think less than 10% chance... I made up the 45 pls check yourself. Also, you could do a macro hedge if believe that the only way you see repeat of the tarp vote in 2008 for the fiscal cliff. You hedge out with QQQ Finally, you set a stop loss say 90% can't drop to more than 75%. Hope it helps That was an excellent answer. I need to check out how much of the max gain i've captured. Hopefully it is around 90% and I can judge accordingly I've gotten slammed on a lot of other riskier positions so i've been holding this position which in my head mitigates a lot of the pain but if i lose this i'm going to get blown out pretty good.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 15, 2012 10:44:00 GMT -8
8 straight weeks down guarantee. What is the longest streak in weekly downs in AAPL's history all time? We must be getting close. There is zero upward strength. So the question is can a stock like AAPL go down every week for an entire quarter ie till January? not a guarantee yet (hoping this is a bounce off those bottom 525s). If Aaplpain means anything down here in the basement, then there is a 98% chance we close above 535 or 540 (not sure which to look at since weekly/monthly data line up this week).
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Post by mstefa on Nov 15, 2012 10:44:52 GMT -8
I was wrong the other day. I can set up spreads in my RRSP account. Just traded my first ever BCS. A few JAN 14 700/800 at $12. Good test and use of my divvy payment Who is your broker? Everything I read says RRSPS can not have any short side. Are you sure it's RRSP? I want your broker!!
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Post by wheeles on Nov 15, 2012 10:46:21 GMT -8
Kass (who went long at 540ish): "Vague rumors of an accelerated buyback at Apple this afternoon" If broadcasting you went long to all and sundry doesn't work, then just start pushing out unsubstantiated bullish rumors.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 15, 2012 10:48:00 GMT -8
Stock widget not showing up on the forum homepage. Data access expired?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 10:53:01 GMT -8
Huberty reiterating her overweight rating based on a healthy supply chain is HUGE.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 15, 2012 11:00:02 GMT -8
Starting today there are 4 new weekly for next Friday to mid Dec, what do folks think this will do to stock movements?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 15, 2012 11:02:14 GMT -8
Kass (who went long at 540ish): "Vague rumors of an accelerated buyback at Apple this afternoon" If broadcasting you went long to all and sundry doesn't work, then just start pushing out unsubstantiated bullish rumors. Not really a rumor Wheeles. I have read over the CC several times and there is a part in there where TC does talk about an accelerated repurchase. I am sure people would get out of the way if the big Apple started buying.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 15, 2012 11:03:45 GMT -8
If broadcasting you went long to all and sundry doesn't work, then just start pushing out unsubstantiated bullish rumors. Not really a rumor Wheeles. I have read over the CC several times and there is a part in there where TC does talk about an accelerated repurchase. I am sure people would get out of the way if the big Apple started buying. We're talking accelerated time frame, not an increase in money that could be used to repurchase shares?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2012 11:07:12 GMT -8
This selloff is irrational.
Buyers aren't buying when the stock continues to sink. Until we either get (1) capitulation on a strong volume day with a $10-$15 drop or (2) a no volume day, buyers are going to hold out for better prices. Sellers are still selling, unfortunately.
Explaining this drop in the context of fundamentals presumes a rational stock market. It isn't.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 15, 2012 11:14:43 GMT -8
I agree with Mercel.
Katy the conservative just rang the gong, telling everyone that the supply chain is roaring and demand is huge......This is Katy who has been the closest ot the pin (no pun intended option players) on the most recent couple of earnings WAGS.
My neighborhood Apple stores are buried in interested buyers, not gawkers. My Ipad mini gets two or three people a day who say, "gotta get one of those by Christmas".
We are beyond irrational here. My dividend just got reinvested and I realized again this company pays me every quarter to own this potential of 58 billion in sales and $15.00 in earnings in a few weeks time....
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Post by lance on Nov 15, 2012 11:17:17 GMT -8
What price would AAPL fall to make it target for Apple the company to begin to purchase shares more rapidly to become private or majority shareholder rather than the standard buyback which was announced to the shareholders. My assessment would be sub 400billion and they would probably cancel the dividend and begin to load up cash and to become the largest shareholder of Apple. Considering by end of 2014 AAPL will likely have 200billion+ in cash. I think this is the biggest reason this stock won't fall too far, because Wall Street doesn't want Apple to take over the stock. Braeburn Capital may become AAPL's biggest owner. You know a stock is stupid cheap when it is possibility that the buying themselves is an actual becomes part of the conversation. We aren't there yet but I would be surprised if the chatter on this topic starts to begin if we approach sub 400billlion in Market cap.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 15, 2012 11:17:42 GMT -8
Not really a rumor Wheeles. I have read over the CC several times and there is a part in there where TC does talk about an accelerated repurchase. I am sure people would get out of the way if the big Apple started buying. OK, so TC talked about it several weeks ago, but my real issue is with Kass who tries to manipulate the stock market to support his own trades. He talks it down when he's short, and talks it up when he's long. Honestly, the guy needs to be in jail with a cellmate called Bubba for his blatant attempts at manipulating the market for his own personal gain.
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