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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 16, 2012 18:49:39 GMT -8
IMHO: The best risk reward investment from now until the end of april is long AAPL hedge with short SPY. Lots of alpha and would cushion loses if there were to be macro event that is hard predict. Comments welcome I took 1/2 profits on SPY bear spreads yesterday and 1/2 today. SPY has always been my index/hedge of choice, but I've long thought I'm in the wrong place for hedging AAPL as QQQ should have a better correlation -- and it has for this correction. I'm just not at all familiar with QQQ technicals and levels and the such, which has kept me from making the transition. Need to do homework.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 16, 2012 18:55:44 GMT -8
If anything, OpEx is what saved the day Agreed. Without it, we would have seen a retrace back below 515 into the close, but the pin to 525 for the latter part of the day propped things up. Be interesting to see what happens Monday.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 16, 2012 19:31:48 GMT -8
LOL on both accounts. I was thinking of you Mark. Jeez. Just stop making predictions (iPadMini, Obama, zillions of PPS guesses over the years). For you newbs, Sponge was always my contrarian indicator. Made lots of money. I'm not trying to be mean, just people should know who they're dealing with. Thanks for having my back Chas. BTW, awesome scalp today. That is serious money, $8.70 in one day. I wanted to buy something with the crumbs I have left, but was to scared to log into the account.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 16, 2012 19:56:53 GMT -8
I know the feeling Mark! You've been a great money manager, hopefully we all come through this with all our body parts intact. Still have about 12% cash left, waiting til we get out of this channel.
iPad, not looking at accounts til $600? I think I'd last about a day on that one. I have the willpower of Fenway!
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Post by capablanca on Nov 17, 2012 17:41:32 GMT -8
I hear and concur with the complaints about Fidelity. I use their Active Trader Pro via the web because they don't support Macs. Fidelity's "solution" is to run Windows on a Mac, but due to past security issues I don't use Microsoft. Is any one here trading on a native Mac application? With whom? What has your experience with them been? Think or Swim has supported Macs natively for many years. Powerful, but complicated platform. Reliable. Customer support good during daytime; poor after hours. Now owned by TD Ameritrade, for better or worse; seems better so far.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 17, 2012 17:43:14 GMT -8
Yeah, can we go back to no dividend? I'd rather Apple kept the cash, thanks. +1
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2012 18:27:24 GMT -8
I don't want to short SPY right now. There's all sorts of risks: 1) Solving the fiscal cliff is good for a few hundred Dow points. 2) Another fake Euro-solution is worth another few hundred Dow points. 3) QE-99 may be announced, also worth a lot. And long AAPL against it has other risks involved. What if AAPL really isn't having a good quarter and warns on revenue/profit? (Not very likely, but still within the realm of possible) Thanks for the comment. If AAPL misses the stock is toast. Three strikes in three quarters and it being xmas too. I agree. Of course, "toast" might be "down 25%" and we've already got that I have not yet come up with a reasonable explanation for all the recent selling. So far, the only reasonable one that I've seen is that a bunch of people expect less than stellar results and slowing growth from the company. Personally, I'm a lot more bullish than that!
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 18:41:22 GMT -8
Uncertainty, tax considerations, tree shaking, slingshot priming, there's a bunch of possible reasons.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2012 19:00:22 GMT -8
Uncertainty, tax considerations, tree shaking, slingshot priming, there's a bunch of possible reasons. Dunno. Tax considerations - well, at 650+ almost everyone had gains, so if they sold to realize CG at lower 2012 rates, that's fine. But if they were still bullish on the stock, presumably they bought it right back, so that shouldn't affect the price all that much. And if they didn't buy it back, then they are not bullish anymore (obviously). Tree shaking - the amount of capital necessary to be used, and put at risk, is far more than can be gained by shaking loose a few shares owned by weak hands (margin, etc). The same applies to slingshot priming, the amount of capital necessary is HUGE and the risks are simply too high for the small gains that might be had. In general, for a very liquid stock like this one, the ONLY real reason for a large decline is lower confidence by large holders. It's not holders of 100 or 200 shares causing this large decline, it's the big investors, the institutions, the funds, etc. There is no "cabal" in the background playing games and causing these large moves, if you look at the numbers, it simply isn't possible. It's important to remember that moving around 10M shares of this company requires 5 BILLION dollars of capital, and more than that trades each and every day! It's almost like the institutions all got word from the same internal research department on 9/21 or so saying "stay away for now".
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 18, 2012 10:14:14 GMT -8
Uncertainty, tax considerations, tree shaking, slingshot priming, there's a bunch of possible reasons. Dunno. Tax considerations - well, at 650+ almost everyone had gains, so if they sold to realize CG at lower 2012 rates, that's fine. But if they were still bullish on the stock, presumably they bought it right back, so that shouldn't affect the price all that much. And if they didn't buy it back, then they are not bullish anymore (obviously). Tree shaking - the amount of capital necessary to be used, and put at risk, is far more than can be gained by shaking loose a few shares owned by weak hands (margin, etc). The same applies to slingshot priming, the amount of capital necessary is HUGE and the risks are simply too high for the small gains that might be had. In general, for a very liquid stock like this one, the ONLY real reason for a large decline is lower confidence by large holders. It's not holders of 100 or 200 shares causing this large decline, it's the big investors, the institutions, the funds, etc. There is no "cabal" in the background playing games and causing these large moves, if you look at the numbers, it simply isn't possible. It's important to remember that moving around 10M shares of this company requires 5 BILLION dollars of capital, and more than that trades each and every day! It's almost like the institutions all got word from the same internal research department on 9/21 or so saying "stay away for now". While I'd agree with a lot of your comments don't forget that those who sold in order to avoid any increases in capital gains could buy back but they would be probably be buying back around 20% less in order to pay those taxes for this year. For CA residents we are looking at around 24% in total (Federal and State) so this could very well have lead to a sizable decline in stock price. Maybe the most important factor to consider would simply be psychology ... there is simply no REAL reason to sell this stock especially as they enter what is more than likely the biggest quarter they have ever had .. but when someone yells "fire" most run
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