JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 17, 2012 15:47:54 GMT -8
Oh goody. Geopolitical uncertainty ALWAYS helps the market. I _have_ tried to factor that into my trading some though. Fiscal cliff, buncha cliffs. The one certainty of the Mideast is uncertainty. I'm surprised Bibi hasn't bombed Iran yet.
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 16:47:39 GMT -8
Hah! That IS ironic. A classic munchie could disappear.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 17, 2012 17:57:10 GMT -8
Who's drinking? I don't drink; I don't chew; and I don't go with girls who do.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 18:09:13 GMT -8
Tammy has a weakness for some of their products. I had to reassure her that they will still be available. There will be competitors falling over each other to pick up these brands. The only losers are the employees who cut their own head off.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 18:11:14 GMT -8
Watching the Stanford vs. Oregon game and the iPad just got a great plug by the announcers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 19:08:03 GMT -8
Good one JZ. Ahem, I happen to reside in one of the two states that has a weakness for Cheech and Chong movies, among other things....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 19:11:21 GMT -8
Watching the Stanford vs. Oregon game and the iPad just got a great plug by the announcers. A good way to measure demand for the new mini is to try and buy one online for local pickup at the Apple Store. At 10pm, Apple turns on the supply. Shortly thereafter, the various models get sold out soon after Apple makes them available. You can see all the stores in your area for quantity on hand (or missing, in this case).
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2012 19:17:22 GMT -8
Yesterday in the last minutes of his segment, Cramer said that what had happened these last few weeks in AAPL was the following - according to his friends on various trading desks: The hedge funds have been the sellers along with other larger institutions. He said they came in day after day with strips of 100k shares at a time and each time they got done they would come in with waves of more. The brokerage firms seeing all these people selling, went short themselves (which is always interesting since their analysts are reiterating buy ratings to clients). All this downward pressure had the stock plummeting day after day....and when the waves of selling subsided....the brokerage firms saw this first and covered their shorts causing a V-like reversal. He said that at these prices people may think it is too cheap to sell any longer but he did say that if the stock moves higher - and there are no other positive market forces (ie fiscal cliff resolution or hopes thereof) you could see the sellers - what's left of them come out on occasion to sell any little they may have left and to hold the stock back from any meteoric-type rise. His assessment sounds pretty truthful and his conclusion sounds much like what Mercel suggested - fits and starts for the next 6 or so weeks. Just thought it was interesting. Did he say who he thinks they were selling TO?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 19:20:35 GMT -8
Lol great AT&T iPad commercial.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 17, 2012 19:25:17 GMT -8
Tammy has a weakness for some of their products. I had to reassure her that they will still be available. There will be competitors falling over each other to pick up these brands. The only losers are the employees who cut their own head off. 6 CEOs in 8 years and run by private equity firms no? How about raises for the fat cats? "As the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy earlier this year, the then CEO of Hostess was awarded a 300 percent raise (from approximately $750,000 to $2,550,000) and at least nine other top executives of the company received massive pay raises. One such executive received a pay increase from $500,000 to $900,000 and another received one taking his salary from $375,000 to $656,256."
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 19:31:45 GMT -8
I really hate Samsung. Now they are giving $200 off a SS tablet if you buy a SG3
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2012 19:32:22 GMT -8
Oh goody. Geopolitical uncertainty ALWAYS helps the market. I _have_ tried to factor that into my trading some though. Fiscal cliff, buncha cliffs. I think "cliff" is overstating things. I'm of two minds about this one. One thing for sure, the person earning $100k is surely going to pay at least $2k more* in taxes next year. That's a new iPad or a new iPhone, or both. * The 2% discount on social security is almost definitely going away.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 19:35:06 GMT -8
Tammy has a weakness for some of their products. I had to reassure her that they will still be available. There will be competitors falling over each other to pick up these brands. The only losers are the employees who cut their own head off. 6 CEOs in 8 years and run by private equity firms no? How about raises for the fat cats? "As the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy earlier this year, the then CEO of Hostess was awarded a 300 percent raise (from approximately $750,000 to $2,550,000) and at least nine other top executives of the company received massive pay raises. One such executive received a pay increase from $500,000 to $900,000 and another received one taking his salary from $375,000 to $656,256." Had not seen that, those guys should be flogged.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 17, 2012 20:03:20 GMT -8
6 CEOs in 8 years and run by private equity firms no? How about raises for the fat cats? "As the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy earlier this year, the then CEO of Hostess was awarded a 300 percent raise (from approximately $750,000 to $2,550,000) and at least nine other top executives of the company received massive pay raises. One such executive received a pay increase from $500,000 to $900,000 and another received one taking his salary from $375,000 to $656,256." Had not seen that, those guys should be flogged. Agree. Doomed company with an outdated product and a severe logistics problem but people running things didn't help. Close bakeries so you have to put in more preservatives for longer shelf life. Supposedly the guys running the bankruptcy are getting nice bonuses for managing it. Sad.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 20:10:50 GMT -8
Chas, here is a very good non-biased article on the situation. Basically everyone is going to lose. The PE firm is going to lose over 100 million. The bakery union is a shit union. The Teamsters passed it. Bottom line, with a billion dollars in debt they were never going to be profitable. finance.yahoo.com/news/whos-blame-hostess-bankruptcy-wall-230200630.html
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Post by chasmac on Nov 17, 2012 20:35:14 GMT -8
Mark, read that. One question. When they came out of their last bankruptcy, how did they have more debt than when they went in?
Read some not so great stuff on the bakers union fighting with the teamsters as well.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2012 20:54:34 GMT -8
This is pretty much how it's supposed to work. The owners bet their equity. And labor bets it's labor and plays for as good a contract as they can get. When they lose, the owners lose all of or most of their equity, and labor loses their jobs and the contract they had.
Someone will probably buy the brand name and perhaps [some of] the pieces. But they won't buy the union workers or their inefficient contracts. And some of the former employees may be hired by the new company at different terms under a different contract (maybe not even within a union).
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 21:10:31 GMT -8
Mark, read that. One question. When they came out of their last bankruptcy, how did they have more debt than when they went in? Read some not so great stuff on the bakers union fighting with the teamsters as well. You got me. I would have thought things would have been restructured better than that. As for the Bakery union, they were in my factory and I can tell you, they are despicable. They have no sense of responsibilities and way to much self worth. They would get people that pushed a broom a very good wage and then tell them how critical they were to the company. There were constant disruptions with the skilled labor vs the broom pushers. The company would offer percentage raises and the broom pushers would raise hell because the skilled labor was getting a bigger raise $ wise, well duh. I can tell you for certain, that company would never have been profitable with the bakery union. Here is the thing, the Teamsters looked at the books, there was only one option. It really was just a matter of time. The union just sped up the process.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 21:20:31 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 21:22:09 GMT -8
Hostess was sadly in the hands of for too long. (Try the veal.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 17, 2012 21:28:28 GMT -8
Yesterday in the last minutes of his segment, Cramer said that what had happened these last few weeks in AAPL was the following - according to his friends on various trading desks: The hedge funds have been the sellers along with other larger institutions. He said they came in day after day with strips of 100k shares at a time and each time they got done they would come in with waves of more. The brokerage firms seeing all these people selling, went short themselves (which is always interesting since their analysts are reiterating buy ratings to clients). All this downward pressure had the stock plummeting day after day....and when the waves of selling subsided....the brokerage firms saw this first and covered their shorts causing a V-like reversal. He said that at these prices people may think it is too cheap to sell any longer but he did say that if the stock moves higher - and there are no other positive market forces (ie fiscal cliff resolution or hopes thereof) you could see the sellers - what's left of them come out on occasion to sell any little they may have left and to hold the stock back from any meteoric-type rise. His assessment sounds pretty truthful and his conclusion sounds much like what Mercel suggested - fits and starts for the next 6 or so weeks. Just thought it was interesting. Did he say who he thinks they were selling TO? No - interestingly no one ever discusses who the buyers may be . There must have been many but obviously the concentration seemed to be the hedgies and institutions - even as described by the CNN article on rebalancing and sales - as well as the Seeking Alpha one. On a lighter note - Gov Chris Christie on SNL tonight -- pretty funny.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 21:29:42 GMT -8
Oh hey! That reminds me! No NASDAQ rebalancing concerns for now! so hard to find humor in the pain
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 17, 2012 21:31:02 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. Admit it - they are having a helluva year! (Don't cringe)
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 17, 2012 21:39:12 GMT -8
If we could just save Yodels and Devil Dogs I could bare the pain of losing the other products! I think there is blame to go around everywhere on this Hostess thing but for the Teamsters to actually allow their guys to cross the Bakers Union picket line says something. They knew the company was going down for real if the strike was allowed to perpetuate . Feel bad for all the job losses and right after being hit with the Hurricane (NJ). It's tough for sure.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 21:44:36 GMT -8
Someone will pick up the Hostess brand, recipes, etc. at the right price. Twinkies aren't going away just yet I bet. And hey they last 200 years anyway
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 22:03:57 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. Admit it - they are having a helluva year! (Don't cringe) Undefeated, yes. A very good year, but they have won some games they had no business winning. They have made me even more mad by not joining the Big 10. They joined the ACC except for football, Grrrrrrrrrrrr
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 17, 2012 22:23:12 GMT -8
Oh hey! That reminds me! No NASDAQ rebalancing concerns for now! so hard to find humor in the painAnd the dividend yield is higher. It just keeps getting better. I refuse to think negatively while I endure this
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Post by tuffett on Nov 17, 2012 22:30:43 GMT -8
I really hate Samsung. Now they are giving $200 off a SS tablet if you buy a SG3 So what? Let them join the zero profit crowd. Just tried a bunch of tablets today - they all suck. Anyone who wants quality will get an iPad.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 22:46:16 GMT -8
Ya don't do these kinda incentives if tablet sales are good. Samsung has been doing this for a while. BOGO/incentive all you want, it's not Apple's game (at least since Back-to-School turned into an App Store gift card program).
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Post by capablanca on Nov 17, 2012 23:26:08 GMT -8
Saw the same piece - Karabell is usually quite thoughtful but all he had was law of large numbers this evening...weird. So we're going to 500 then? That's the closest large number. Seriously though, I've been using the January 2008 breakdown as an analogy, and if that analogy holds and we are at the point in it that I think we could be, then we might spend the next 6-7 weeks effectively going sideways. It sounds crazy, but I'm not totally convinced by the action today, given that options expiration played a large part in preventing a retracement in the latter half of the day. Despite this bounce, both the daily and weekly charts closed below their respective lower acceleration bands. For the weekly this was the second week below it, which is usually a confirmation signal. What this all boils down to, is that despite an impressive rebound in price, we have fallen to such a level that bounces are still going to get sold as soon as they start to run out of steam. This will continue to happen until a number of key lines are recaptured. Let's not forget that most of the trades in AAPL are being done by machines and they are completely dispassionate when it comes to trading. When people come to appreciate this, then it's far easier to exit a position when things are going well, simply because your rules tell you to. It's that what made me flip short when we had the bounce to 554 and what made me cover at 506. I'm not hanging out the bullish bunting just yet because I can still see a big chunk of this bounce getting retraced. Where that retracement stops will tell me for sure whether I should stop flip-flopping long and short, and solely focus on long positions. I was having very similar thoughts while gazing at my 5 year weekly chart. Along about October '08 we hit a bottom in the low 80s, and then spiked well over 10% in one or two days. Then we traded in a range (granted a pretty big one) for four or five months. Along the way there were two or three more chances to buy at 80 before the big multi-year run up. Back then there were the cancer scares, the claims that iPhone was an over priced toy, the Zune was to kill iPod and Amazon would kill iTunes. Today it is "the law of large numbers", no innovation without SJ, profit margins eroding, Windows 8 tablets, Andorid, Samsung, and Kindle. Big Bird raises a good question. Are there still a lot of weak hands (silicon or otherwise) that are going to sell the the rallies? I don't like it, but we may very well get one or more chances to buy under 500. Of course a great 1Q might have something to say about that. But can 1Q really be great? The "strong" dollar, complete lack of iMacs, short supply of iPhone and iPad, along with ramp up costs could mean that a little over Apple's guidance is all we are going to get.
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