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Post by darrenhd on Nov 19, 2012 9:20:58 GMT -8
Just 5-ish dollars per share to go before I'm back to break-even on the FIRST time I thought we hit bottom. I'm still down 10.5% on my common shares. I'll take the +5% today gladly, though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 9:21:49 GMT -8
To watch Colin Gilles on CNBC talking AAPL down was just unreal. I need to step away from this TV. He is saying that AAPL needs to sell 49 million iPhones this qtr at a minimum because that number is baked in already. What numbers is he looking at?! I need to find a pub - I need a drink - this guy drives me to drink! Colin Giles cured me of watching CNBC, at least during the hours he has a chance to sound dumb.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 19, 2012 9:23:46 GMT -8
Looks like I picked the wrong week to sell AAPL. ;D
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 19, 2012 9:27:40 GMT -8
Looks like I picked the wrong week to sell AAPL. ;D lol. same but this wouldn't have happened if we didn't sell.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 9:32:41 GMT -8
Are you SURE this is all machines?
Or have they just gone all bullish?
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 19, 2012 9:33:40 GMT -8
No need to thank me now, but I bought another iPad yesterday. If I knew that one purchase was to result in today's move...
Think I will go buy some more this week.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 9:34:08 GMT -8
Pivoted to Momo Mode - with a little care.
Mar 550 buy-in, unreliable leg-in stop limit @ around AAPL low 550s probably for STO Mar 570s
Thesis: AAPL shockingly close to reclaiming SMA-50 weekly. A reclaim of that level may trigger still more buying since it'll have been a very powerful retaking of the level (compare as far as back as 2006). And if I'm wrong, I take back about 70% of the capital.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 9:36:07 GMT -8
I hardly ever watch CNBC - online Redler's segments are worth it though.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 9:40:13 GMT -8
To watch Colin Gilles on CNBC talking AAPL down was just unreal. I need to step away from this TV. He is saying that AAPL needs to sell 49 million iPhones this qtr at a minimum because that number is baked in already. What numbers is he looking at?! I need to find a pub - I need a drink - this guy drives me to drink! I think the 49MM IPhone # is about right, Phoebes, to get any earnings north of $13.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 9:42:58 GMT -8
Normalize, deliberate margin decision, sandbagging.
Also of note, WS is being immunized against "misses." Hey, if AMZN can sell WS on its twisted version of the long game (not for company survival, in terms of its ridiculous valuation), then I think WS can learn to like Apple's take on "go for share".
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 9:43:18 GMT -8
No need to thank me now, but I bought another iPad yesterday. If I knew that one purchase was to result in today's move... Think I will go buy some more this week. Buy me a mini for Christmas....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 9:44:23 GMT -8
To watch Colin Gilles on CNBC talking AAPL down was just unreal. I need to step away from this TV. He is saying that AAPL needs to sell 49 million iPhones this qtr at a minimum because that number is baked in already. What numbers is he looking at?! I need to find a pub - I need a drink - this guy drives me to drink! I think the 49MM IPhone # is about right, Phoebes, to get any earnings north of $13. I agree. My spreadsheets say the same...so that number is actually pretty reasonable. Now, I expect more sales than that in my models....
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 19, 2012 9:45:38 GMT -8
I just put on some cheap SPY hedges: JAN'13 130/135 bear put spreads.
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Post by wraithyouth on Nov 19, 2012 9:45:59 GMT -8
I think it's a sign of how insane AAPL's recent activity has been that we can have a move like this and not be anywhere close to the upper bollinger band in any of my charts...
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 19, 2012 9:49:05 GMT -8
I just put on some cheap SPY hedges: JAN'13 130/135 bear put spreads. smart move! Note: ~1pm ~19M shares traded today versus ~1pm on Friday ~30M shares traded Volume gonna start drying up towards the close due to the short week.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 19, 2012 9:58:43 GMT -8
I think the 49MM IPhone # is about right, Phoebes, to get any earnings north of $13. I agree. My spreadsheets say the same...so that number is actually pretty reasonable. Now, I expect more sales than that in my models.... Is that your minimum number?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 9:59:48 GMT -8
iPad! You're scaring me!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 10:00:42 GMT -8
I expect Tim Cook will get past 50M iPhones sold if he can do it without overtaxing the supply chain (which, as I just double-checked, should include production/assembly for the consumer).
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 19, 2012 10:01:03 GMT -8
I just put on some cheap SPY hedges: JAN'13 130/135 bear put spreads. What? no Weeeeeee?
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Post by po1nt on Nov 19, 2012 10:03:07 GMT -8
I'm loving the candle on the 2-day chart. Its glorious! ;D
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 10:05:39 GMT -8
I agree. My spreadsheets say the same...so that number is actually pretty reasonable. Now, I expect more sales than that in my models.... Is that your minimum number? We sold something like 37-38MM in 1Q12, so 49MM would be about a 30-31% YOY increase. Keep in mind, we're also rolling out to China in December, which will help 1Q13, albeit at the expense of 2Q13. Revenues will be fine. It's the GM that's killing this Q. The 36% GM guidance for 1Q13 vs. something like 47% GM in 1Q12 is the real hit. Hopefully, we can come in at 39%-40% GM for this Q.
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Post by prazan on Nov 19, 2012 10:08:28 GMT -8
I think the 49MM IPhone # is about right, Phoebes, to get any earnings north of $13. I agree. My spreadsheets say the same...so that number is actually pretty reasonable. Now, I expect more sales than that in my models.... I'm modeling 49 million iPhones, 26 million iPads combined, and 39% GM, which pulls the EPS just north of $15. Don't underestimate how much O I/E screwed us last quarter. If I noted this correctly (always an issue) Oppenheimer guided to $380 million this quarter, which would boost EPS by half a buck over the -51 of last quarter.
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Post by kloot on Nov 19, 2012 10:10:21 GMT -8
This is a bit _too_ much buying to be all machines all the time wheeles. 95% of the trades in AAPL are done by machines. You only need to look at Time and Sales to see that is true. and who programs the machines? people with emotion and sentiment.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 19, 2012 10:11:11 GMT -8
Any GM over 40 is a win. Under 38.0 is a miss, unless Q2 guidance is near $ 11.
Everyone should remember that Q1 last year was 14 weeks and that 37 M iPhones was a statistically anomaly. Use unit sales with some strong hint of unit sales absolute growth with rolling averages to smooth out seasonality.
My reasonable range of iPhone sales is 47-55 M. Currently using 50 M, but that's more of a WAG than a firm estimate.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 19, 2012 10:13:16 GMT -8
Prazan, what are your iPhone ASP, Mac estimates, OpEx and tax rate ?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 10:16:46 GMT -8
Mav, you idiot.
Oh well, that's why there's the stop limit and the pick of Mar 13 vs weeklies.
The day is going all kinds of great. I just bought a top for the moment.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 19, 2012 10:17:23 GMT -8
If WS is expecting 49 million iPhones they are going to be surprised. I think the 4/4s are going to deliver some very strong unit sales with nice GM's. I am looking for 52 million iPhones. I think TC gave us a hint at the qtr when he emphasized the "look at revenue, not Peters ridiculous EPS number". You can't get to 52 million revenue without the iPhone being 49 million.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 10:25:33 GMT -8
I agree. My spreadsheets say the same...so that number is actually pretty reasonable. Now, I expect more sales than that in my models.... Is that your minimum number? I agree with Mav...I think we can beat 50 million. There are a ton of 4 and 4s models that will also be sold this quarter. Demand remains monstrous. How many can be put into the channel is the only question. Remember, we have a China Telecom launch in December too...
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Post by trespif on Nov 19, 2012 10:26:05 GMT -8
How do we usually do the rest of the week after a very strong Monday?
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 19, 2012 10:27:04 GMT -8
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