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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2012 20:04:06 GMT -8
700+, here we come!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 20:06:23 GMT -8
Don't you be trolling me! OTOH, Redler was thinking 704-707. And story, fundamentals, even technicals (daily MACD-h positive crossover) are aligning... I still think this run may need next week to be sustainable because of the ridiculous hurdles WS and other investors place in front of Apple (can Apple sell a decent number of iPhones launch weekend? Will the sun come out tomorrow?! : . But I've cleared my hedges off the board just in case.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 20:38:59 GMT -8
I really think this idea of splitting days is a great idea. (Yay Mav) I have an idea lovey, when you close it for the day, edit the title to include the $ gain or loss. Kind of a reference guide. Just my .04c
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 20:42:38 GMT -8
You mean something like printing the closing price on the topic? Hey, up to iPad!
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 21:11:45 GMT -8
You mean something like printing the closing price on the topic? Hey, up to iPad! Do both closing price and $ gain or lost. I have an excel spreadsheet that I enter all kinds of info every day. Just a suggestion.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 21:46:48 GMT -8
Trying to make life easier on iPad. And wow, MB, you have been utterly Braeburnized. (That's a good thing.) Hope you join whoever among us here still does fundamentals/earnings analysis.
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Post by neno on Sept 17, 2012 22:08:33 GMT -8
Hi,
It's great to see this community live and kicking.
I'm mostly a quiet reader, but having the ability to follow so many smart people here is really awesome.
On to AAPL - Personally I think that short/medium term is a little overbought, and the PE became a little high. Put that together with the overall market rally and I decide to wait for a better entry point for stocks/spreads. I think that there are more chances for a correction of ~10% or a bit more (depending on the entire market). Any thoughts?
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Post by tradermac on Sept 17, 2012 22:45:15 GMT -8
Posting to this forum with the PB iPhone app. Totally worth the $3. Thanks for the suggestion from those on this board. This forum has gotten really lively since the migration. It's great!
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Post by downunder on Sept 18, 2012 0:02:33 GMT -8
The PB iPhone app is fantastic. This will transform my AFB2 reading habits 100%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 18, 2012 0:27:20 GMT -8
Hey, this PB app IS amazing! Just another great thing to come with our new home.
Early PM: $701.00
Edit: PB app works great on the iPad as well.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 18, 2012 1:00:27 GMT -8
On to AAPL - Personally I think that short/medium term is a little overbought, and the PE became a little high. Put that together with the overall market rally and I decide to wait for a better entry point for stocks/spreads. I think that there are more chances for a correction of ~10% or a bit more (depending on the entire market). Any thoughts? I also think that it is a little overbought. However, that does not mean that it could not go higher. For example, ...if we would hit the PE high from April (18.1) we would get a price of around $770. ...if the stock would rise 35% above the 100day MA (as it did in April) we would get a price of around $815. While the stock is definitely not at bargain levels (as in mid May), it could still go significantly higher before a major pullback occurs.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 18, 2012 1:09:16 GMT -8
Thank you for setting this up lovemyipad
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Post by mjuarez on Sept 18, 2012 1:51:46 GMT -8
I was holding 15% cash, kinda hoping for short-term weakness for a few days now... but it doesn't look like it's happening. With next Monday's monster iPhone sales announcement, plus iPad mini + holidays fast approaching, the stock is bound to go insane again. I'll probably just give in and open the positions again (mostly JAN13 700/680s, with a few APR13 750/730s thrown in for good measure). OCT12s sound tempting, but I've been burned before by short-term spreads before.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2012 3:00:18 GMT -8
I am in complete awe of all the activity and the move. Thanks, iPad, really. I guess things do really happen for a reason. This is great.
Still missing a few folks but hopefully they will find their way. I tried to reach out through PM to a few but don't know what has happened to my message and I don't trust that it even reached the recipient.
If anyone knows certain folks who may not be aware of the move, please reach out - here are a few that I can remember - some we haven't heard from in a bit however others were fairly active:
Brazil Nuts jjjz AppleDoc Mace
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Post by Big Al on Sept 18, 2012 3:21:47 GMT -8
By the way, I really like the functionality of this board, especially the home page.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2012 3:39:54 GMT -8
BofA raises PT this morning from $770 to $850
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Post by onemoreanimal on Sept 18, 2012 3:40:14 GMT -8
I still think this run may need next week to be sustainable because of the ridiculous hurdles WS and other investors place in front of Apple (can Apple sell a decent number of iPhones launch weekend? Will the sun come out tomorrow?! : . But I've cleared my hedges off the board just in case. I just re-read Apple's official press release and this line stood out: "Demand for iPhone 5 exceeds the initial supply and while the majority of pre-orders will be delivered to customers on September 21, many are scheduled to be delivered in October." This almost seems as if they're warning analysts and investors that they may not meet the lofty 10-12 million sales estimates that are being thrown around by the end of the quarter. I'm long and hope that's not the case, but it does seem a little odd that they would word it that way in a press release.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 18, 2012 3:48:39 GMT -8
I still think this run may need next week to be sustainable because of the ridiculous hurdles WS and other investors place in front of Apple (can Apple sell a decent number of iPhones launch weekend? Will the sun come out tomorrow?! : . But I've cleared my hedges off the board just in case. I just re-read Apple's official press release and this line stood out: "Demand for iPhone 5 exceeds the initial supply and while the majority of pre-orders will be delivered to customers on September 21, many are scheduled to be delivered in October." This almost seems as if they're warning analysts and investors that they may not meet the lofty 10-12 million sales estimates that are being thrown around by the end of the quarter. I'm long and hope that's not the case, but it does seem a little odd that they would word it that way in a press release. The question then is, how many iPhone 5s will be sold through other channels (e.g., Apple store, resellers, and carriers) in the Sep quarter?
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Post by stevereel on Sept 18, 2012 3:57:55 GMT -8
Spot on, Big Al. I think the Sept numbers will be "acceptable" to WS. And iPhone sales will be full capacity from day 1 of the Dec quarter.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2012 4:10:37 GMT -8
I still think Thursday may be interesting. Judge Koh evidently filed a motion to deny the lift by AAPL on Samsung's tablet. tinyurl.com/9rctrq3
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 4:25:14 GMT -8
Trying to make life easier on iPad. And wow, MB, you have been utterly Braeburnized. (That's a good thing.) Hope you join whoever among us here still does fundamentals/earnings analysis. Mav, I was member number 3 and an administrator over there, I left permanently a couple of months ago. I think your memory might be letting you down as I have estimated earnings for AAPL all the way back to 2007. You have forgotten the infamous bet between myself and Tommo which I hit EPS exactly in Jan 2008 to win. The bad part was, I won. LOL That was a very bad month. Mav, my goal is to continue learning and whenever possible share what I have learned. I do estimates so I can plot strategies going forward. To me, if a person does not have an idea about EPS, there is no way they can realistically have a plan more than a few months out. My plan extends out to Jan 14. (earnings matter)
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 18, 2012 4:44:26 GMT -8
I just re-read Apple's official press release and this line stood out: "Demand for iPhone 5 exceeds the initial supply and while the majority of pre-orders will be delivered to customers on September 21, many are scheduled to be delivered in October." This almost seems as if they're warning analysts and investors that they may not meet the lofty 10-12 million sales estimates that are being thrown around by the end of the quarter. I'm long and hope that's not the case, but it does seem a little odd that they would word it that way in a press release. The question then is, how many iPhone 5s will be sold through other channels (e.g., Apple store, resellers, and carriers) in the Sep quarter? Lots. If the majority of the 2 million plus are going to be delivered Sep. 21, does that mean that 1 million were sold in the first hour after which the pre-orders sold out the allotment for Sep. 21 delivery?
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Post by downunder on Sept 18, 2012 4:54:37 GMT -8
Guys don't forget the second wave Sep 28th 22 more country's have a iPhone5 launch date and haven't opened the pre orders yet... Apple must have some phones put aside for the 28th Well I hope so as I can't order one down here yet!
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Post by Big Al on Sept 18, 2012 5:14:21 GMT -8
Concerning the organization of the intraday-thread.
I have the feeling that a daily thread might get a little confusing over time. Some people posting in the latest thread while others are still answering the thread from the day before (because of whatever reasons) or even two/three days before. Maybe it would make sense to stay with the weekly intraday-thread.
What do you guys think?
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 18, 2012 5:22:36 GMT -8
With the caveat that i'm a mere lurker, I agree, i'm finding i have to check both which feels a little unneccessary.
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Post by Plato on Sept 18, 2012 5:25:59 GMT -8
Concerning the organization of the intraday-thread. I have the feeling that a daily thread might get a little confusing over time. Some people posting in the latest thread while others are still answering the thread from the day before (because of whatever reasons) or even two/three days before. Maybe it would make sense to stay with the weekly intraday-thread. What do you guys think? I agree. Any possibility of archiving old threads, and mark them as such?
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Post by Plato on Sept 18, 2012 5:29:37 GMT -8
For anybody that hasn't read it yet ... 2 new upgrades today. Nothing extra ordinary, but still note worthy. - MW Stern to $840 - BofA to $850
Looks like a fight for the $700 mark at the open.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 18, 2012 5:37:58 GMT -8
Morning to all,
It appears trading is the same volume as yesterday. 1.2 M in the first 5 minutes, which I characterize as active but not high drama.
Trading at 697.5 down from from 699.95
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 18, 2012 5:44:26 GMT -8
I still think this run may need next week to be sustainable because of the ridiculous hurdles WS and other investors place in front of Apple (can Apple sell a decent number of iPhones launch weekend? Will the sun come out tomorrow?! : . But I've cleared my hedges off the board just in case. I just re-read Apple's official press release and this line stood out: "Demand for iPhone 5 exceeds the initial supply and while the majority of pre-orders will be delivered to customers on September 21, many are scheduled to be delivered in October." This almost seems as if they're warning analysts and investors that they may not meet the lofty 10-12 million sales estimates that are being thrown around by the end of the quarter. I'm long and hope that's not the case, but it does seem a little odd that they would word it that way in a press release. I wouldn't be concerned about that at all. Anybody selling as a result of any perceived weakness in iPhone sales this Q will be absolutely steamrolled by everyone trying to get into AAPL to catch the insane holiday Q results.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 18, 2012 5:50:39 GMT -8
Guys don't forget the second wave Sep 28th 22 more country's have a iPhone5 launch date and haven't opened the pre orders yet... Apple must have some phones put aside for the 28th Well I hope so as I can't order one down here yet! Of course they do. Ultimately, Apple would prefer not to completely satisfy all demand in the initial launch countries before adding new countries. They want the phone in as many markets as quickly as possible even if initial countries are still seeing demand outstrip supply. This hits competitors in as many markets as possibly as quickly as possible. Anyone worrying about iPhone sales right now I think is just a nervous nelly. Apple has been doing this for a while now and there is no way on Earth they would launch the iPhone now and announce the most aggressive rollout in history in the most robust global smart phone market ever if production was not up significantly YoY. Apple is likely producing twice as many phones as last year. If that isn't enough to meet demand, so be it. All historical initial launch and annual sales trends suggest a doubling is exactly what we will see going forward. Thankfully, current analyst estimates for the next year seem to be calling for 30-40% unit growth so there is ample room for Apple to "miss" its historical trend and still crush analyst estimates.
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