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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 12:20:55 GMT -8
It's not the _greatest_ of "follow-through" based on the MACD-h (indicator, not predictor) yesterday, but it will do nicely. I'll have to consult the charts to see how some other timeframes look now. I imagine some volatility compression situations on shorter timeframes resolved to the upside. Forgive the repetition but: DUDE!!!!!! (Translation: I am seriously impressed with your vernacular!!)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 12:22:08 GMT -8
iPad, is this is just a "wheee" day?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 12:23:28 GMT -8
iPad, I'm still a little miffed that you didn't tell me my 23.8% Fib retrace level was 0.2% off. I appreciate the encouragement, and also don't hesitate to tell me where I'm sounding like an idiot for talking technicals wrong! Unless of course it's a kind of running joke where it gets funnier and funnier the longer I don't notice how awkward my technicals grammar really is...
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 12:27:25 GMT -8
It's not the _greatest_ of "follow-through" based on the MACD-h (indicator, not predictor) yesterday, but it will do nicely. I'll have to consult the charts to see how some other timeframes look now. I imagine some volatility compression situations on shorter timeframes resolved to the upside. I have to politely disagree Mav. I love the mild ascension on the histogram. My only complaint was the volume and the net negative outflow of money. (It was small though for AAPL) I am surfing this puppy, hopefully I can get to shore before wiping out. Well, I agree with BOTH of you. Daily MACD-h looks promising...4H, 2H, 90 min...not so much... bearish divergence...
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 12:29:28 GMT -8
iPad, I'm still a little miffed that you didn't tell me my 23.8% Fib retrace level was 0.2% off. I appreciate the encouragement, and also don't hesitate to tell me where I'm sounding like an idiot for talking technicals wrong! Unless of course it's a kind of running joke where it gets funnier and funnier the longer I don't notice how awkward my technicals grammar really is... No running joke. I am continually astounded and impressed by how much you have picked up and how well you're applying it!!! P.S. Still catching up on posts, so haven't read where you nailed the retracement -- way to go!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 12:31:26 GMT -8
Before I forget: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We freakin' CLOSED above 700!! 700!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by rickag on Sept 18, 2012 12:32:35 GMT -8
Nice to see, I'm half Swedish, well except for someone named Fife from Ireland, back around the 1590s, probably captured by Vikings.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 12:42:35 GMT -8
I was just looking at the option chain for Jan. Does somebody know something?
Seriously 1040, I am under-invested, where is that mutt? ;D
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Post by mjuarez on Sept 18, 2012 12:44:16 GMT -8
Before I forget: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We freakin' CLOSED above 700!! 700!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The last time we crossed a major threshold (600s back in March/April), the stock kept going until it got to 644. Now we have the iPhone5 sales numbers next week, press all over new ATH and iPhone5, October event with a probable iPad Mini, and freaking holiday season is just around the corner. On top of every analyst falling over themselves to increase their price targets. I'm fully expecting AAPL to be over $720 by October earnings, over $750 by January, and $800 by April. I have placed my bets accordingly: 5% on 710/690 OCT12s, 85% on 700/680 JAN13s and 10% on 750/740 APR13s.
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 18, 2012 12:45:09 GMT -8
My iPhone 5 is in Memphis! Shows a delivery date of 9/21 but says it's shipped standard overnight. Maybe it will get here early?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 12:52:47 GMT -8
P.S. Still catching up on posts, so haven't read where you nailed the retracement -- way to go!! Nono, I mean that I was measuring Fib tracements at 23.8% where it's supposed to be 23.6%.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 12:53:29 GMT -8
My iPhone 5 is in Memphis! Shows a delivery date of 9/21 but says it's shipped standard overnight. Maybe it will get here early? So, it _originated_ from Memphis? Another useful data point. New iPad-esque.
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 18, 2012 13:00:09 GMT -8
My iPhone 5 is in Memphis! Shows a delivery date of 9/21 but says it's shipped standard overnight. Maybe it will get here early? So, it _originated_ from Memphis? Another useful data point. New iPad-esque. It's coming via Fed Ex. I think all their packages go through Memphis at some point.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:00:40 GMT -8
Where's the origin scan is my question.
China or the US?
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angel
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Post by angel on Sept 18, 2012 13:02:04 GMT -8
Mark, here I am I left the last board primarily because it was too easy to get caught up in the crazy exuberance aka drinking too much kool-aid. Hopefully, we have a healthy dose of contrarian thinkers on this board to offset the cheerleaders. I can certainly provide my fair share! I believe we're due for a market sell-off - maybe as early next week with AAPL simultaneously reporting huge pre-orders but significantly lower shipments. We may see $680 or lower. I think they're still struggling with component supplies and this won't be fixed until production yields improve on certain key components. The monster in the room is the December quarter, however, so I always keep that in mind.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 13:02:59 GMT -8
Anyone catch James Altucher being interviewed on CNBC just now? Huge AAPL bull but is insisting that the Kindle Fire HD is going to blow the iPad away and take market share from it especially during this holiday season. He offered to go through feature by feature and how it was so much better. WTF is he talking about?! Yeah, I saw that, and Altucher has always had a warm place in my heart, since he was the first to call AAPL a $1000 stock - when it was at $350 (Blodgettard warning). But yeah, WTF on the Fire HD? I doubt Altucher has held one in his hand yet, and was just spouting off specs, as if that is what matters. From what I have read/seen (see video) the Fire HD is ad-annoy-ware every time you use it (akin to AFB 1?). It is mostly an e-book content portal, and only sold in the US and parts of the UK, i.e., English only. In fairness, Altucher was very bullish on $AAPL, but was prompted by the CNBC talking head about any worries he had about Apple. Nice run today. Let's keep it up!
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 13:03:28 GMT -8
The last time we crossed a major threshold (600s back in March/April), the stock kept going until it got to 644. Now we have the iPhone5 sales numbers next week, press all over new ATH and iPhone5, October event with a probable iPad Mini, and freaking holiday season is just around the corner. On top of every analyst falling over themselves to increase their price targets. I'm fully expecting AAPL to be over $720 by October earnings, over $750 by January, and $800 by April. I have placed my bets accordingly: 5% on 710/690 OCT12s, 85% on 700/680 JAN13s and 10% on 750/740 APR13s. OK, I am confused, which is your short and which is your long?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:04:25 GMT -8
Wouldn't ANYONE struggle with supplies with pre-orders more than double that of the 4S? Which were a "mere" 65% or so higher than pre-orders for the iPhone 4?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 13:05:38 GMT -8
Quick summary: The Bullish Cross model portfolio achieves killer returns by employing: 1) fundamental analysis to estimate price targets; 2) technical analysis to time purchase/sale of bull call spreads.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 13:05:48 GMT -8
My iPhone 5 is in Memphis! Shows a delivery date of 9/21 but says it's shipped standard overnight. Maybe it will get here early? Don't hold your breath, I remember my ipad sitting in Memphis until the launch date. Just staging for the massive deliveries on the 21st.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 13:14:03 GMT -8
Mark, here I am I left the last board primarily because it was too easy to get caught up in the crazy exuberance aka drinking too much kool-aid. Hopefully, we have a healthy dose of contrarian thinkers on this board to offset the cheerleaders. I can certainly provide my fair share! I believe we're due for a market sell-off - maybe as early next week with AAPL simultaneously reporting huge pre-orders but significantly lower shipments. We may see $680 or lower. I think they're still struggling with component supplies and this won't be fixed until production yields improve on certain key components. The monster in the room is the December quarter, however, so I always keep that in mind. Angel, there are plenty of people here who are always looking over their shoulder. I am sticking with the theory that when people are in power they want to stay in power, market stability helps this cause. Just me, but I don't see the S&P going below 1400 any time soon.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 13:20:15 GMT -8
The question for the rest of the week...will the wall of $700 calls expiring this week prevent any further upside movement until next week? Anyone playing this theory? I really don't know, because we've been chewing through the strikes with the highest OI. But this Friday is quad witching -- not sure how that will play out.
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 18, 2012 13:20:36 GMT -8
Where's the origin scan is my question. China or the US? Doesn't say. Just that it was picked up in Memphis.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 13:23:35 GMT -8
Hi, It's great to see this community live and kicking. I'm mostly a quiet reader, but having the ability to follow so many smart people here is really awesome. On to AAPL - Personally I think that short/medium term is a little overbought, and the PE became a little high. Put that together with the overall market rally and I decide to wait for a better entry point for stocks/spreads. I think that there are more chances for a correction of ~10% or a bit more (depending on the entire market). Any thoughts? Waiting for a 10% pullback just ahead of earnings and guidance for the December is like playing Russian roulette with an automatic. Yeah, that was my thinking in April. Didn't work out so great. Bottom line: anything can happen short-term.
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 18, 2012 13:23:41 GMT -8
posted by afterglow in AFB 1 today: The front page of USA Today mentions, "stay tuned for our iPhone 5 review at 9pm tonight", which probably means all of the early reviewers will be posting their thoughts about iPhone 5 tonight.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:31:15 GMT -8
Quick summary: The Bullish Cross model portfolio achieves killer returns by employing: 1) fundamental analysis to estimate price targets; 2) technical analysis to time purchase/sale of bull call spreads. Read: The exact same thing most of us also aspire to do.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 13:33:36 GMT -8
Mark, here I am I left the last board primarily because it was too easy to get caught up in the crazy exuberance aka drinking too much kool-aid. Hopefully, we have a healthy dose of contrarian thinkers on this board to offset the cheerleaders. I can certainly provide my fair share! I believe we're due for a market sell-off - maybe as early next week with AAPL simultaneously reporting huge pre-orders but significantly lower shipments. We may see $680 or lower. I think they're still struggling with component supplies and this won't be fixed until production yields improve on certain key components. The monster in the room is the December quarter, however, so I always keep that in mind. Angel, there are plenty of people here who are always looking over their shoulder. I am sticking with the theory that when people are in power they want to stay in power, market stability helps this cause. Just me, but I don't see the S&P going below 1400 any time soon. I'm not looking over my shoulder, but rather at what happened September through December of last year. Until January, Apple traded in a fairly narrow range. Yes, iPhone 5 looks to be bigger than iPhone 4s, but the fact of the matter is that 4s did not move the stock. Nor did iPad sales. This time round, we have the likelihood that Amazon is going to sell a lot of Kindles (at a profit or not is beside the point), plus I'm not sure what impact an iPad Mini, if it materializes, will have on the stock. Meanwhile, since about mid-January Apple has been on a tear. The exuberance got the rug pulled out a bit in April/May, and I would not be surprised if the stock gets knocked down a peg soon. Maybe as much as 10% to 12%. And if the markets drop generally, due either to exhaustion or macro events, I think that Apple, after a drop, may at best tread water until earnings are reported in January. On the macro side, I am at this point less concerned about Europe than about growing evidence of a general slowdown, and uncertainty about when, and if, the US is going to get its fiscal house in order. For my personal portfolio, what this means for the moment is that I continue to hold my Apple long position. But I am now evaluating that on a daily basis. I certainly don't intend to add shares or ordinary calls right now. P.S. On the upside, a friend just emailed me to say that there are iPhone lineups forming at Apple's New York flagship store.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:35:37 GMT -8
iPhone reviews 2 days in advance of launch? Sounds on schedule. iPad, April was accelerated uptrend clashing against "common sense" (I'd triple quote it if that made sense). That trendline was pointing to something like AAPL 1100 or something by end of year. AAPL hadn't been on that kind of trajectory even since the 2008-09 bottom or whatever That was too far, too fast for AAPL blended with all the usual AAPL doubt and the weight of being the #1 market cap stock (though I've long thought that AAPL is "properly" valued at a 25 multiple). The market just wasn't prepared. Something had to give, but it didn't give up more than 530. Buy-and-holders have been mostly yawning (or cheering) the entire year. Now we have dividends and greater product visibility and the bedrock valuation rising to meet us and a more sustainable uptrend. Anything can happen, but you'll see why 2012...won't be like (April) 2012.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:40:34 GMT -8
Bull or bear, I don't care.
But be consistent and as solid as possible in your analysis.
Counterpoints:
4S and iPad didn't move the stock? Sure it did!
iPad Air could be a very big deal.
Define "exuberance". Is S&P market multiple exuberant?
Why do you think AAPL is going down 10-12%? More importantly, under what theory?
For the record, I trade AAPL puts/put spreads from time to time and I'm an avid hedger. So I'm not all AAPL calls all the time.
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Post by burtonair on Sept 18, 2012 13:45:03 GMT -8
Angel, there are plenty of people here who are always looking over their shoulder. I am sticking with the theory that when people are in power they want to stay in power, market stability helps this cause. Just me, but I don't see the S&P going below 1400 any time soon. I'm not looking over my shoulder, but rather at what happened September through December of last year. Until January, Apple traded in a fairly narrow range. Yes, iPhone 5 looks to be bigger than iPhone 4s, but the fact of the matter is that 4s did not move the stock. Nor did iPad sales. This time round, we have the likelihood that Amazon is going to sell a lot of Kindles (at a profit or not is beside the point), plus I'm not sure what impact an iPad Mini, if it materializes, will have on the stock. Meanwhile, since about mid-January Apple has been on a tear. The exuberance got the rug pulled out a bit in April/May, and I would not be surprised if the stock gets knocked down a peg soon. Maybe as much as 10% to 12%. And if the markets drop generally, due either to exhaustion or macro events, I think that Apple, after a drop, may at best tread water until earnings are reported in January. On the macro side, I am at this point less concerned about Europe than about growing evidence of a general slowdown, and uncertainty about when, and if, the US is going to get its fiscal house in order. For my personal portfolio, what this means for the moment is that I continue to hold my Apple long position. But I am now evaluating that on a daily basis. I certainly don't intend to add shares or ordinary calls right now. P.S. On the upside, a friend just emailed me to say that there are iPhone lineups forming at Apple's New York flagship store. My take on last Sept. - Dec. was that after the "poor" earnings announcement in October, many people thought the good times were over for Apple and so it traded in a range. It wasn't until January earnings that they realized how wrong they were. All things equal this year, I would expect people to swing the other way and come out with expectations that Apple can maybe only meet but certainly not beat (percentage wise) like they did last year. This would mean a huge run up into January. Of course all things being equal doesn't take into account Fiscal Cliff, Israel bombing Iran, Spain going under, Elections and random Middle East uprisings.
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