jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 21, 2012 12:12:43 GMT -8
My take is that there is a lot of pent up demand for Apple shares. I am expecting a big move up on Monday. My two local Apple stores are very busy. People are buying products. Here's to the Big Move UP on Monday (probably settling in the 580 region as that seemed to be a big buy in spot on the way down?) And here's to a Happy Turkey Day to all my AFB friends! As long time Apple bulls, most of us have a LOT to be thankful for and here's to more "appreciation." ;D
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Post by wolverine on Nov 21, 2012 12:26:47 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was.
Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products.
Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 21, 2012 12:37:35 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? It's not just about market share, but the number of units. It's okay to have a declining slice of the pie if the pie is getting bigger. But I would like to see some innovation, instead of just bigger and better versions of existing products. No one asks this of AAPL's competitors, just AAPL. It's what you get for being the innovator all these years. Maybe if we relinquished that title to Samesung, then perhaps our PE will go to 25, and we can get by with just beating our own estimates.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 21, 2012 12:39:21 GMT -8
Nobody else innovates. Smart glasses? Please.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 21, 2012 12:50:10 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? It's not just about market share, but the number of units. It's okay to have a declining slice of the pie if the pie is getting bigger. But I would like to see some innovation, instead of just bigger and better versions of existing products. No one asks this of AAPL's competitors, just AAPL. It's what you get for being the innovator all these years. Maybe if we relinquished that title to Samesung, then perhaps our PE will go to 25, and we can get by with just beating our own estimates. +1 You beat me to it but my thoughts exactly
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 21, 2012 13:05:57 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 13:06:28 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? You DO realize that price targets of Wall Street firms average $760 in 12 months. The key point that rebuts your premise is this: Apple doesn't have to dominate the market segments to capture both sales and profit growth, particularly with the iPhone. Nonetheless, with your thinking you should be shorting AAPL. Good luck with that! You are giving too much credit to Wall Street in any event. And if their perception WAS as you describe it, price targets would not scale to the median $760 price target.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 13:09:27 GMT -8
Enterprise is a key growth opportunity for Apple, which needs to upgrade its productivity suite ASAP. The lack of a timely upgrade suggests something very big -- at least I'm hopeful. Or, putting on my conspiratorial hat, did Apple make a deal with the devil (Mr. Softie) and orally agreed to slow walk a more powerful iWork in exchange for continuing to support Office for Mac?
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 21, 2012 13:14:52 GMT -8
Enterprise is a key growth opportunity for Apple, which needs to upgrade its productivity suite ASAP. The lack of a timely upgrade suggests something very big -- at least I'm hopeful. Or, putting on my conspiratorial hat, did Apple make a deal with the devil (Mr. Softie) and orally agreed to slow walk a more powerful iWork in exchange for continuing to support Office for Mac? It was mentioned before - I just don't understand why they aren't putting a big focus on iWork...surely there must be a group that can give it a wow factor.
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Post by prazan on Nov 21, 2012 13:24:12 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? It's not just about market share, but the number of units. It's okay to have a declining slice of the pie if the pie is getting bigger. But I would like to see some innovation, instead of just bigger and better versions of existing products. No one asks this of AAPL's competitors, just AAPL. It's what you get for being the innovator all these years. Maybe if we relinquished that title to Samesung, then perhaps our PE will go to 25, and we can get by with just beating our own estimates. I always thought the most important metric was dollar/profit share. Who's making money? The only legitimate worldwide competitor to the iPad is the Nexus 7. Amazon sells a device limited in function to the U.S. They sold, what, 5 million devices at last counting? Despite what a tech reviewer in Seattle may think, the Surface has not been a highly praised product. The two highest-profile reviewers, Pogue and Mossberg, both gave it middling reviews because of the clunky software. The Nexus 7 is reportedly the best-selling pure Android tablet, and might be the strongest competitor at about a million units a month. Still, it will sell fewer in the year than Apple sells in a quarter, and the arrival of the Mini iPad will compete head to head for the pint-sized tablet market. Will Apple lose unit market share in tablets? Of course. You can't have a 90% share with a premium product and not lose unit share to cheap knock offs. But they'll make most of the money. The iPhone is selling as fast as they can deliver them. What more do you want, except for them to make them faster and with better margins? Horace D talks about the ridiculousness of the claims the Apple has ceased innovating in his most recent podcast, Critical Path 63. Even under the great Steve Jobs during his peak years, Apple released a groundbreaking product every five to seven years. We're now three years into the iPad era. In between revolutionary products, they refine their current products. It's a sound approach.
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Post by rosie on Nov 21, 2012 13:26:15 GMT -8
after a few days of "normal" winter sporadic power outages I ordered an external battery that showed up today. the lightning and original connectors work fine with it. my iPhone charges quickly in the car where I have AC but the retina iPad takes way too long, so now I'm all set. Let the winds blow .... www.newtrent.com/store/iphone-external-battery/icarrier.htmlI think Hillary's truce will have a positive effect on Monday's markets as well as Black Friday results. Rockets going up that don't kill anyone. Always the way to go! have a wonderful Thanksgiving and have fun shopping in the middle of the night at the Apple store.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 21, 2012 13:26:41 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? You DO realize that price targets of Wall Street firms average $760 in 12 months. The key point that rebuts your premise is this: Apple doesn't have to dominate the market segments to capture both sales and profit growth, particularly with the iPhone. Nonetheless, with your thinking you should be shorting AAPL. Good luck with that! You are giving too much credit to Wall Street in any event. And if their perception WAS as you describe it, price targets would not scale to the median $760 price target. Analyst price targets for AAPL have been overly optimistic for several years now, and are rarely approached. The iPhone will continue to grow in sales over the short term, but its market share will continue to erode. Same with iPad. As for shorting AAPL, I don't think this is the time, but thinking long-term I just might do exactly that. This board got a shot across the bow with the last earnings, yet the rah-rah continues. BTW, I am only throwing out ideas to discuss, not necessarily challenging the widespread faith-based belief in AAPL. And, yes, as a Mac user since 1987 and an AAPL owner since 1998, I am starting to lose the faith. The importance of Jobs to the company cannot be understated, and it remains to be seen if anyone inside the company can replace that once-in-a-century icon.
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 21, 2012 13:35:10 GMT -8
It's not just about market share, but the number of units. It's okay to have a declining slice of the pie if the pie is getting bigger. But I would like to see some innovation, instead of just bigger and better versions of existing products. No one asks this of AAPL's competitors, just AAPL. It's what you get for being the innovator all these years. Maybe if we relinquished that title to Samesung, then perhaps our PE will go to 25, and we can get by with just beating our own estimates. I always thought the most important metric was dollar/profit share. Who's making money? The only legitimate worldwide competitor to the iPad is the Nexus 7. Amazon sells a device limited in function to the U.S. They sold, what, 5 million devices at last counting? Despite what a tech reviewer in Seattle may think, the Surface has not been a highly praised product. The two highest-profile reviewers, Pogue and Mossberg, both gave it middling reviews because of the clunky software. The Nexus 7 is reportedly the best-selling pure Android tablet, and might be the strongest competitor at about a million units a month. Still, it will sell fewer in the year than Apple sells in a quarter, and the arrival of the Mini iPad will compete head to head for the pint-sized tablet market. Will Apple lose unit market share in tablets? Of course. You can't have a 90% share with a premium product and not lose unit share to cheap knock offs. But they'll make most of the money. The iPhone is selling as fast as they can deliver them. What more do you want, except for them to make them faster and with better margins? Horace D talks about the ridiculousness of the claims the Apple has ceased innovating in his most recent podcast, Critical Path 63. Even under the great Steve Jobs during his peak years, Apple released a groundbreaking product every five to seven years. We're now three years into the iPad era. In between revolutionary products, they refine their current products. It's a sound approach. Remember that it was not all that long ago the having a "pager" was the big thing. Now we have smart phones and tablets. The coming years will bring termendous innovations in consumer and enterprise communication and entertainment. No company is positioned better strategically than Apple to be the spearhead of coming innovations. I.E, cash and cash generating capability, brand, retail stores, supply chain, patents, and its ecosystem.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 21, 2012 13:59:06 GMT -8
It's not just about market share, but the number of units. It's okay to have a declining slice of the pie if the pie is getting bigger. But I would like to see some innovation, instead of just bigger and better versions of existing products. No one asks this of AAPL's competitors, just AAPL. It's what you get for being the innovator all these years. Maybe if we relinquished that title to Samesung, then perhaps our PE will go to 25, and we can get by with just beating our own estimates. The iPhone is selling as fast as they can deliver them. What more do you want, except for them to make them faster and with better margins? I am looking at the future, not the next few months. As far as I can see, Apple has created exquisite products for the present ...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 21, 2012 13:59:45 GMT -8
"Analyst price targets for AAPL have been overly optimistic for several years now, and are rarely approached."
Accordingly to my memory, AAPL meets Wall St analysts share price targets pretty much every year, at which time they raise them again.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 14:25:34 GMT -8
Surely half day Thursday and all day off Friday would make a lot more sense. Most decent jobs offer both all day Thursday and all day Friday off, making it a 4 day weekend. I'm sure that upsets some people, but they just need to get over it.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 21, 2012 14:30:15 GMT -8
AAPL now has 5 different weeklys open + 1 December monthly.
I weekly opened today.
It appears weeklys will now open 5 weeks from the closing date. The weekly that opened today has 37 days left.
Another peculiar note. The weekly that opened today has 27% volatility compared to the December monthly that closes 7 days earlier that has 32% volatility. That suggests to me that the weekly opened today is a better value than the Monthly. OR, it may also mean sentiment is not positive for AAPL currently.
What do you think?
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Post by rickag on Nov 21, 2012 14:36:50 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? Oh great googly moogly, this so much FUD. The iPhone is on less than 40% of the carriers worlwide notably China Mobile. Low presence in India where demand is high on the gray market. Low in Russia and South America. Our own government is replacing Blackberries with iPhones because Android is one big pile of security holes. The tablet market is in its infancy and Apple will obtain a significant market share in the huge market. As mentioned above Apple's US enterprise market increased drastically as their competitors shrunk. Just with current products Apple will more than double their sales and no one outside of Apple knows what is being developed inside Apple's R&D. You should have called that radio station and corrected them, they are wrong. If you are going to project the demise of Apple's growth at least cite some real information rather than a couple of random radio hosts.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 21, 2012 14:44:42 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? Oh great googly moogly, this so much FUD. The iPhone is on less than 40% of the carriers worlwide notably China Mobile. Low presence in India where demand is high on the gray market. Low in Russia and South America. Our own government is replacing Blackberries with iPhones because Android is one big pile of security holes. The tablet market is in its infancy and Apple will obtain a significant market share in the huge market. As mentioned above Apple's US enterprise market increased drastically as their competitors shrunk. Just with current products Apple will more than double their sales and no one outside of Apple knows what is being developed inside Apple's R&D. You should have called that radio station and corrected them, they are wrong. If you are going to project the demise of Apple's growth at least cite some real information rather than a couple of random radio hosts. You have failed to cite one valid reason for your faith-based belief in Apple's future growth. I was asking for speculation about what industries Apple may enter, and all I see from you is a reiteration of what Apple has already done. Think of the future, not the past. And explain to me why FUD is necessarily wrong.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 15:03:50 GMT -8
I was just listening to a tech reviewer on the radio in Seattle, and he and the host were talking about all the alternative tablets available this year (some of which the reviewed really liked and recommended), as well as next year's forthcoming smart phones branded by Amazon and Microsoft. It struck me that the real reason for the dramatic recent decline in Apple share price is that Apple is increasingly going to have to share the tablet and smart phone spaces with a variety of valid competitors. There is simply no way that Apple can continue to dominate these product categories. Wall Street understands this, and does not have faith that Apple can come up with similar blockbuster new products. Nor do I ... or at least I am less certain than I once was. Apple's incredible value is largely a result of tablets and phones; unless Apple can enter and quickly dominate whole new industries as it has with phones and tablets, there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. We can complain all we want about the unfair P/E assigned to Apple, but perhaps it is a good as it can be for a huge company dependent upon relatively few blockbuster products. Other than television, which has not been an easy industry in which to grab market share, what are the industries that you think Apple could enter? Or are we doomed to a future of market share erosion? Should we all have abandoned Apple at 700? When the margin on a product varies from 0% to 40% market share is a meaningless term unless the price points are specified. You can have a 90% market share, but if you are giving away the product you have zero percent of the profits. You can have a 20% market share and margins that are substantially higher than your competition, and end up with 80% of the profits. Apple targets that portion of the market where substantial margins can be maintained. In other words, Apple defines the market as that portion which can sustain a reasonable profit and doesn't concern itself with gaining market share where little or no margin is possible. This is the fallacy with the market share metric that does not segment the market. ...the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price. Why is that true? Even if sales and profits were to decline the share price should remain unaffected because the current P/E already reflects a share price commensurate with less than 10% earnings growth. Additionally, the early reports on Surface and other also-ran tablets versus those on the iPad line clearly contradict what you were hearing on the radio. The Surface is a flop reminiscent of the Zune music player, and retailers are already discounting the Samsung and HTC offerings with BOGO offers and bonus gift cards. Google will at some point admit that its revenue stream is drying up, and that it can't afford to support Android devices other than its own. Meanwhile, Apple's offerings are sold out and they can't make them fast enough at a 40% profit margin. It would seem that Apple has nearly 100% of the market share that matters. Everyone else is free to fight over the low margin crumbs. As far as Apple's future developments might be concerned, what about smart cars? Apple satellite radio anyone, with an Apple branded car stereo based on the iPod? Smart homes (think ZigBee, or other smart metering interfaces)? And when has anyone been able to predict the next big thing that Apple does? No, it's not over. Apple is doing just fine, thanks.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 21, 2012 15:09:40 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD.
This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company?
Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 21, 2012 15:22:08 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD. This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company? Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward. Thank you for that. Too many among us fail to take Steve Jobs' admonition to heart; we all really do need to "Think Different."
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 15:42:28 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD. This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company? Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward. Apple beat guidance by far better margins expected of lesser companies. And Apple still beat Wall Street expectations for the most recent December and March quarters. What's the third "recent" quarter to which you refer? The fact is, expectations for Apple are unrealistic. It is especially ridiculous that AMZN reports EPS of 7 cents for the most recent 4 quarters and is rewarded to laughable proportions. Those attempting to "explain" Apple's recent drop are doing so in a vacuum. If Apple's stock price (and recent decline) is "reasonable," then one also must accept Wall Street's valuation of Amazon's as "reasonable." It's not.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 21, 2012 15:52:35 GMT -8
But Wolverine, you say "...what they have already done" as if it is finished. It's not. Apple have built a strong mobile platform that has huge share, in a phone market that is projected to treble in 3-4 years, and a tablet market projected to treble in 2-3. That is not "done". It is "doing".
Just in the iPad, one stool leg, they are leading the wave that is transforming computing. The tablet market could be 500m+ units annually within 5 years. Apples share in that could be lower than today? Fine by me!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 21, 2012 15:55:27 GMT -8
Here's what I know:
1. iPhone has about a 15% global market share. Any drops in market share will be more than offset by expansions into untapped markets. 2. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market. And it continues to grow. 3. Demand is hotter than ever. Just go to your local Apple store to see that. 4. Supply chain is improving and will match demand before the quarter is over.
Short term and intermediate term concerns covered IMO. Long term, who knows. Adapt as you see fit.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 21, 2012 15:57:07 GMT -8
Redge?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 16:05:22 GMT -8
How's that Mac doing, btw?
And iPod?
Two case studies in products that have stood the test of time. Apple's Mac business is good for over $20B a year. We've been massively spoiled by Apple's hyper growth, yes. But why doubt Apple's ability to pull an IBM? As in, the company MOST famous for taking their PC monopoly and losing it to competitors the world over, including Apple in no small part?
Recurring revenue? The BASE case - look to moribund, yet stupid-profitable, MS. And this is the cynical case. People will continue to buy the easy to use software with quality hardware and great design. Until you tell me how Apple is failing in this regard there's at least as valid a reason to continue seeing Apple's base of customers - still growing - come back for more Macs, iPhones, iPads, etc. That's the other holy grail no one talks about. BMW sells FREE service with its cars as a loss leader and despite the fact that you need not subscribe to BMW or any other automaker, customers continue to provide that business-critical revenue stream by any other name.
Competition? Remember big brash SJ and his ambition for iPhone? 10M in a year. 1%. On pace for over 10%. Considering the smartphone market was never realistically Apple's to dominate, things still seem on course. Predicting the future can only be done with an anchor in the present. Doing so would have anticipated Blackberry's fall ever since and maybe before the Torch. 60%+ YOY growth for a 40%ish growth market with the transitional iPhone 4S wasn't too shabby. iPhone 5's arc will give vital clues.
Tablets - iPad mini just came out. Give it some time.
"The rest" - car and television, there really isn't an iPhone/iPad-sized opportunity there. Apple typically only jumps into a market with gusto and a solid market strategy (of course, "watch this space" with Apple's perpetual hobby).
All systems green. Profitability excellent. Management solid. I still like Apple's chances and I liked them even before iPad, the only market aside from iPhone Apple has a chance of dominating and extracting obscene profit share. Oh wait...it already does that in every hardware category except Apple TV and accessories...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 16:13:00 GMT -8
Another thing - the World of Hurtâ„¢.
Whatever your politics you can't deny slowing growth in the US and worldwide. The peas and carrots the market seem to hate (QE anyone?) vs. kicking the can down the road - both of which aren't good WS scenarios. That's always an uphill battle for equities and it has to be taken into account.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2012 16:22:07 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD. This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company? Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward. Thank you for that. Too many among us fail to take Steve Jobs' admonition to heart; we all really do need to "Think Different." Disruptions a'coming.....: 1) Television (the center of the home entertainment network, governed by Apple software, integrating your content choice, distribution, scheduling, viewing, annotation. 2) Home security and management. (Hey, see that ipad that runs the television set? It also sets the thermostat (NEST), the lights, the security system, the webcams, the garage door opener, etc. 3) Credit Card utilization (Hey, who has more credit card numbers than just about anyone? Who can leverage the way credit cards - or their doggelgangers, the smartphone app - into new ways of identifying, selecting, buying, returning merchandise? 4) Autos....Looks for Ipad minis to become dashboard control panels. Potentially 20 million a year for this use alone. 5) Energy management - See NEST above and then extrapolate out the myriad ways we can better manage lighting, heating, fuel utilization, determining the fastest and most effective routes to get from A to B..... 6) physic Harmony...(I'm working on this app...it will be awesome).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 16:22:45 GMT -8
Wishing everyone here a happy Turkey/Tofurkey Day tomorrow.
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