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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 22, 2012 3:09:07 GMT -8
Thought I would open a thread since many are not from the US and some may just drop in to see what might be going on...if anything.
Happy Thankgiving, all!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 22, 2012 4:42:39 GMT -8
Happy Thanksgiving all.
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Post by flyonthewall on Nov 22, 2012 5:14:33 GMT -8
Happy Thanksgiving to all from Denmark! A very special thanks to <lovemyipad> for finding us a new home and re-invigorating such a valuable and affable forum.
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Post by rezonate on Nov 22, 2012 5:22:50 GMT -8
A very special thanks to <lovemyipad> for finding us a new home and re-invigorating such a valuable and affable forum. Agreed. Has anyone been back to TMO at all? (crickets) Now, time to start plotting the next AFB gathering. Cupertino, anyone?
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Post by tuffett on Nov 22, 2012 6:16:21 GMT -8
Happy Thanksgiving to the Americans! This is rather scary: Seems like his entire strategy rests on buying a huge number of bull call spreads at one or two different strikes. Seems extremely risk concentrated to me. Did he really turn a 400% gain into an 86% loss? And a subscription service too, with many people following him...what a mistake. I can understand letting it run in a personal account but there has to be some level of risk management when people are paying you to perform. To his credit, his "long-term" portfolio is doing quite well in outperforming the indices.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 22, 2012 6:37:38 GMT -8
Tuffet, I won't criticize AZ on his positions at all. They are not out of line or overly aggressive. It is easy to second guess after this meltdown (I know I have to myself), but lets see where things stand in December.The 705 position has no chance, but the 600/650 should at least get back to a break even.
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Post by rickag on Nov 22, 2012 6:49:15 GMT -8
Tuffet, I won't criticize AZ on his positions at all. They are not out of line or overly aggressive. It is easy to second guess after this meltdown (I know I have to myself), but lets see where things stand in December.The 705 position has no chance, but the 600/650 should at least get back to a break even. +1 I wish Andy and anyone following him the best.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 22, 2012 7:01:18 GMT -8
Tuffet, I won't criticize AZ on his positions at all. They are not out of line or overly aggressive. It is easy to second guess after this meltdown (I know I have to myself), but lets see where things stand in December.The 705 position has no chance, but the 600/650 should at least get back to a break even. +1 I wish Andy and anyone following him the best. I wish Andy well, and hope he recovers.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 22, 2012 7:06:26 GMT -8
When did he open those January spreads? Seems utterly insane if he did not get out of those quickly. I know he felt 615 was the bottom, but after that didn't hold he should have made some moves. It's easy to second guess, but he was sitting on some nice profits at one point.
I made the same mistake, but my spreads were DITM. Live and learn.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 22, 2012 7:09:51 GMT -8
Tuffet, I won't criticize AZ on his positions at all. They are not out of line or overly aggressive. It is easy to second guess after this meltdown (I know I have to myself), but lets see where things stand in December.The 705 position has no chance, but the 600/650 should at least get back to a break even. It comes down to risk/reward. When AAPL was in the $700s his positions would be near full value. So he risked millions of profit hoping to make a small fraction of a gain. Don't get me wrong, I've made the same mistake as well on a much smaller scale (I am guessing most of us have). But when millions of dollars of client money is on the line, some precautions need to be taken. I'm just surprised, is all. It's pretty clear I'm not a huge fan of the way he conducts himself, but I do think he is an excellent fundamental analyst. Basically, why put your money with him when risk management is so poor? That should be priority one with client money.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 22, 2012 7:12:31 GMT -8
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Post by amade1974 on Nov 22, 2012 7:15:51 GMT -8
I would not feel sorry for AZ, he is making 150 dollars/month for every subscription, and more for institutional investors. too bad that he sold some of his stuff and got more aggressive and short term...I guess greed got the best of him
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Post by appledoc on Nov 22, 2012 7:28:30 GMT -8
Tuffet, I won't criticize AZ on his positions at all. They are not out of line or overly aggressive. It is easy to second guess after this meltdown (I know I have to myself), but lets see where things stand in December.The 705 position has no chance, but the 600/650 should at least get back to a break even. It comes down to risk/reward. When AAPL was in the $700s his positions would be near full value. So he risked millions of profit hoping to make a small fraction of a gain. Don't get me wrong, I've made the same mistake as well on a much smaller scale (I am guessing most of us have). But when millions of dollars of client money is on the line, some precautions need to be taken. I'm just surprised, is all. It's pretty clear I'm not a huge fan of the way he conducts himself, but I do think he is an excellent fundamental analyst. Basically, why put your money with him when risk management is so poor? That should be priority one with client money. They wouldn't have been close to full value, but my guess is that he would have made a decent profit from both spreads. My Jan 550/560 was >9.00 when we were above 700. Now THAT was a mistake by me not to sell. Spreads may be safer than calls, but they can lose their entire value pretty quickly too.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 22, 2012 7:30:52 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 22, 2012 7:37:36 GMT -8
Missile attacks heading to your home ( really!) There's an app for that...... www.timesofisrael.com/new-app-offers-sderot-experience-for-iphone-users/new iPhone app enables users to keep track of Palestinian rocket fire from Gaza on southern Israel by sending a notification whenever an alert is sounded, Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Monday. The application, which is not an official warning system, is the brainchild of 13-year-old Beersheba resident Liron Bar. Bar provides constant reports on missile attack warnings, known as Color Red alerts, and rocket strikes in the south on his Facebook page as well. Application developer Kobi Snir volunteered to develop the free app, which sends a notification (in Hebrew) to iPhone users every time there is an air raid warning of a rocket attack from Gaza. Another volunteer, Yossi Yifrah, provides the updates.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 22, 2012 7:55:27 GMT -8
Is AAPL trading in Frankfurt? Yes, right? Anyone know where it is this morning?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 22, 2012 7:55:44 GMT -8
It comes down to risk/reward. When AAPL was in the $700s his positions would be near full value. So he risked millions of profit hoping to make a small fraction of a gain. Don't get me wrong, I've made the same mistake as well on a much smaller scale (I am guessing most of us have). But when millions of dollars of client money is on the line, some precautions need to be taken. I'm just surprised, is all. It's pretty clear I'm not a huge fan of the way he conducts himself, but I do think he is an excellent fundamental analyst. Basically, why put your money with him when risk management is so poor? That should be priority one with client money. It is easy to second guess. I had some Jan 680/700's and they were not even close to full value when AAPL was at 705, maybe $11 with $9 still to be made. Again, it is a little early to be gloating about his mistakes. He has had great success and I fully expect him to come out on top in the long run. People let him manage their money because they do not want to watch on a regular basis. I do not understand the animosity toward AZ.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 22, 2012 8:01:06 GMT -8
Happy Thanksgiving!
I have been incredibly blessed in my life, and among those blessings have been finding AFB and the incredible stewardship of Lovemyipad in both its incarnations.
Thanks to all contributors and to those who run our favorite company.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 22, 2012 8:10:22 GMT -8
Is AAPL trading in Frankfurt? Yes, right? Anyone know where it is this morning? Just checked. Flat about 10k shares traded.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 22, 2012 8:12:24 GMT -8
Is AAPL trading in Frankfurt? Yes, right? Anyone know where it is this morning? Just checked. Flat about 10k shares traded. Thanks!
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Post by tuffett on Nov 22, 2012 8:37:45 GMT -8
It comes down to risk/reward. When AAPL was in the $700s his positions would be near full value. So he risked millions of profit hoping to make a small fraction of a gain. Don't get me wrong, I've made the same mistake as well on a much smaller scale (I am guessing most of us have). But when millions of dollars of client money is on the line, some precautions need to be taken. I'm just surprised, is all. It's pretty clear I'm not a huge fan of the way he conducts himself, but I do think he is an excellent fundamental analyst. Basically, why put your money with him when risk management is so poor? That should be priority one with client money. It is easy to second guess. I had some Jan 680/700's and they were not even close to full value when AAPL was at 705, maybe $11 with $9 still to be made. Again, it is a little early to be gloating about his mistakes. He has had great success and I fully expect him to come out on top in the long run. People let him manage their money because they do not want to watch on a regular basis. I do not understand the animosity toward AZ. I only pick on him because he's one of the biggest names in the world of AAPL analysts, and because he runs a hedge fund. An independent guy handling that kind of money should have some basic risk management principles and accountability. I just wonder if the people who trusted their money to him were expecting an overall performance that beat simply buying and holding AAPL stock (which is what Zaky claims to be the goal of the portfolio) or if they were expecting a roller coaster casino-type game where they could either make a ten bagger or lose it all. Those are two very different objectives and it seems the portfolio has traded on the latter but the goal was declared as the former. This is why I will never invest funds with someone until I see how both good and bad times are handled. I'm not gloating, just bringing up something for discussion on a slow day. I am fully aware that the spreads could very well still pay out either partially or fully.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 22, 2012 8:55:07 GMT -8
Andy is one of our few cheerleaders, who rebut the FUDsters and other AAPL bashers in the public domain. He is one of us, and I wish him well, because if he does well, then chances are that we do also.
But he has the "cuilones" to refute a Doug Kass in public, and I thank him for that, because we all wish we could do that but lack the platform and/or the guts.
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Post by roni on Nov 22, 2012 9:05:42 GMT -8
Still one of my favorites It has been a wonderful year in my investing world and I am grateful to all of you who have had a role in that!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 22, 2012 9:58:16 GMT -8
Gobble gobble
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2012 11:12:18 GMT -8
I don't have all the data on Zaky's fund, but the math suggests $12M in redemptions. Just wow.
This is ample warning for those trading short term options.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2012 11:18:16 GMT -8
To his credit, his "long-term" portfolio is doing quite well in outperforming the indices. There is a long term portfolio? If so, my comment re: redemptions would not be correct.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 22, 2012 11:59:20 GMT -8
Andy is one of our few cheerleaders, who rebut the FUDsters and other AAPL bashers in the public domain. He is one of us, and I wish him well, because if he does well, then chances are that we do also. But he has the "cuilones" to refute a Doug Kass in public, and I thank him for that, because we all wish we could do that but lack the platform and/or the guts. The Perma-bull is the opposite FUDs. Maybe AZ would done well to listen to KD. It would have saved him, 100s of percent of performance. Almost $150 of brutual draw down pain. Also, I could guess why he would want to think that think that AAPL going past 650 in Jan. Which IMO might be before a real catalyst. I do like the mix of technicals and negative views and risk managment comments. For those from the 2008 vintage of AFB, remember the perma-bulls in the face of terrible drawdown ruinned many less trading oriented folks. I know quite a few that were wipe and are only just in the green. Happy T-Day!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2012 12:19:14 GMT -8
I just installed Philips HUE lights at home. It is an excellent product. The LEDs last for 15 years, there is very little heat, the software is faultless and the lights produce instant ambience and atmosphere -- all from my iPad mini and iPhone. Highly recommended.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 22, 2012 12:41:18 GMT -8
Shares in RIM (on the Toronto exchange) are up almost 17% today. Its up over 56% in the last month. If this hail marry pass doen't complete, they will be in for a hard landing. I still don't know how many people will be with the Blackberry platform to matter.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 22, 2012 13:02:39 GMT -8
Shares in RIM (on the Toronto exchange) are up almost 17% today. Its up over 56% in the last month. If this hail marry pass doen't complete, they will be in for a hard landing. I still don't know how many people will be with the Blackberry platform to matter. Analysts are predicting something like 34 million units to be shipped in FY13. Big whoop.
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