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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 24, 2012 9:59:46 GMT -8
My WAGs:
ATH 2013: 1010 (double the NOV'12 low) Year End 2013: 750
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 24, 2012 12:31:36 GMT -8
750 would be my bottom scraper for post October earnings. I'm more at 820-850, but going higher related to gross margin.
By Dec 4, I expect 820-920 as the holiday season is underway.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 24, 2012 12:39:30 GMT -8
My WAGs: ATH: 1010 (double the NOV'12 low) Year End: 750 Lovey, December 31st of what year? 750 at the end of 2013 would be awful.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 24, 2012 14:32:06 GMT -8
Mark, yep 2013...about as awful as this feels right now, I'm thinking. The same pattern...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 24, 2012 15:52:09 GMT -8
Mark, yep 2013...about as awful as this feels right now, I'm thinking. The same pattern... Yech
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2012 17:26:08 GMT -8
Hey, if I think I can see a pattern, I won't question it - I'll just _go_ with it. AFB collectively gains experience and all that good stuff.
Let's just see how we end up end of 2012 first. Barring macro, the AAPL story looks pretty good right up to fiscal Q2 2013 at least...
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Post by bribery on Nov 24, 2012 18:38:36 GMT -8
ATH 1010 in '13? Don't even say that! - Makes me fantasize with how absurdly rich that scenario would make me.
I see it rocketing by the end of Q1 but that's as far as I see
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Post by bribery on Dec 10, 2012 0:17:23 GMT -8
This is how I'd like it to play out. Q1: blowout earnings > $15. Corrected to 13 weeks instead of 14, that'd be 25% EPS increase. Q2: another YOY great earnings. Apple will not have deployed a lot of its stuff until January for most of the world, while the iPhone/iPad mini is only getting 2/3 weeks in most of the world as well. Q2/Q3: deal with CM Q3: iTV announcement Great holiday season, etc., and we sell the soon-to-be-purchased Jan calls/CBSs before expiry.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 10, 2012 7:53:20 GMT -8
Revenue and EPS for FY 2013
$ 200-218 B $ 54-59
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 8:33:03 GMT -8
Revenue and EPS for FY 2013 $ 200-218 B $ 54-59 But, but, but, that is only 25% growth for a megacap company, that means slash the p/e to 10 because they are only adding $50 billion in cash to the balance sheet and paying a small dividend. (BTW, I still wish they would have done a buy back instead of a dividend) Imagine a company having 170 billion in the bank, no debt and trading at a discount to the overall market. Never happen right?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 10, 2012 14:29:25 GMT -8
50 Billion is about right. I have $ 52 B in net revenue not including effects of dividends or stock buybacks and other sales caveats.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 10, 2012 17:21:55 GMT -8
L, I accounted for dividends, including a 20% increase to $12/yr, but not for BB's, need to refigure.
BTW, I hate the way the iPad spells for me.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 10, 2012 19:10:06 GMT -8
I dialed down on iPhone unit sales for now. That is, my future SuperBird blowout scenario is still in somebody else's garage.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 30, 2012 12:59:04 GMT -8
ATH 880 Year end 780
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 30, 2012 14:31:53 GMT -8
My WAGs: ATH 2013: 1010 (double the NOV'12 low) Year End 2013: 750 I must amend this to... ATH: 1002 (double the DEC'12 low) Year End: 750
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Post by rosie on Dec 30, 2012 15:00:44 GMT -8
that's actually a very optimistic amendment!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 30, 2012 15:20:51 GMT -8
750 minimum. 900 is possible. Target of 800-850.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2012 15:10:53 GMT -8
Here's last years predictions (from the old AFB)
I'm pretty impressed the groups average prediction was only about 6% off the actual.
Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2012 15:17:16 GMT -8
My wager:
ATH 2013: $960.00
Closing price December 31st 2013: $920.00
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 31, 2012 20:43:43 GMT -8
ATH will be in October at 923
Close the year, one year from tonight.......843
Write it down....
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 21:00:26 GMT -8
Here's last years predictions (from the old AFB) I'm pretty impressed the groups average prediction was only about 6% off the actual. Capablanca $405.00 Mstefa $499.00 Incorrigible $509.50 Tantoday $516.00 Lovemyipad $520.00 Afterglow $525.00 Mav $540.00 Macorange $540.00 RedShirtedEnsign $544.00 JohnG $550.00 Burgess $567.00 JJJZ $584.00 Omacvi $625.00 Gregg Thurman $685.00 McharlieM $710.00 2 Cents $770.00 Average $568.09 Congrats to Afterglow on being closest to the mark! A close race, decided by just 33 cents...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2012 21:06:06 GMT -8
iPad, we got a deadline on this "contest"?
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 1, 2013 1:24:04 GMT -8
As long as we're WAGging...
ATH : 873 12/31/13: 782
(/muted optimism)
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Post by rickag on Jan 1, 2013 8:02:02 GMT -8
ATH $910 Close 12/31/13 $710 Jan 14 expiration $780
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macorange
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Post by macorange on Jan 1, 2013 8:29:47 GMT -8
Mav and I lost by 33 cents, so we need to sharpen our pencils this time.
My most likely case this year is also my worst case: ATH 790, 12/31 640
If the economy overall does well and the iPhone continues its outsized growth, then the sky is the limit for the best case.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 1, 2013 10:46:50 GMT -8
750 would be my bottom scraper for post October earnings. I'm more at 820-850, but going higher related to gross margin. By Dec 4, I expect 820-920 as the holiday season is underway. Note: this does not include new products such as Apple television, but it does include improvements to the US economy, Apple gross margin and iPad mini mania.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2013 10:51:08 GMT -8
Not sure if Apple TV is a this year thing. Content over technology...the tech is there IMHO.
Television is quite niche compared to ultraportable and pocketable computing. Halo yes, Apple's long-term future hardly.
Highly doubtful Apple is at any point at a huge content negotiations disadvantage vs. competition. Throw in Eddy Cue and Apple's ease of use DNA, and worst-case, Apple follows the competition into the smart TV space. Huh, same as it did with iPhone and iPad and Mac and iPod.
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Post by moltenfire on Jan 1, 2013 14:37:48 GMT -8
ATH probably in late July to Sept, ~$830-850. Dec 31, 2013: $702 with PE at 12.
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Post by prazan on Jan 1, 2013 19:52:00 GMT -8
Following the idea that as soon as you can see a pattern the pattern changes, I'll forecast an ATH of 797 and an end of year price of 780, all taking place in December.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2013 1:52:13 GMT -8
Not sure if Apple TV is a this year thing. Content over technology...the tech is there IMHO. Television is quite niche compared to ultraportable and pocketable computing. Halo yes, Apple's long-term future hardly. Highly doubtful Apple is at any point at a huge content negotiations disadvantage vs. competition. Throw in Eddy Cue and Apple's ease of use DNA, and worst-case, Apple follows the competition into the smart TV space. Huh, same as it did with iPhone and iPad and Mac and iPod. TVs are definitely not going to be as big a opportunity as iPhones/iPads, but is a bigger opportunity than Macs are. More importantly a TV may be needed as a defense mechanism for the iOS ecosystem.
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