4aapl
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Posts: 3,656
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 30, 2017 21:27:43 GMT -8
Thanks for the insight. I have my eye on Jan 2019 200 and Jan 2020 240 leaps. I missed the chance on both last week. They came close to my limit price and now... BOOM! So you were eyeing the other side of the trade. Someone has to, but I'm curious why you would. Let's say you were looking at the Jan '19 200's when the stock was at $155. And maybe you were hoping to get them for $5. That's a 32% gain just to break even, and a 42% rise (32% annualized) to hit $220, which would give a 300% payout. While I like the sound of that, and it's something I would have bought 15 years ago when AAPL was a different beast, to me it seems like while it's possible, it's not very probable. But I switched over to spreads, so I likely would have sold off the top side. Making it a 200-220 spread, I probably could have gotten it for $4, so that would give a 400% potential max gain. Anyways, just curious if you were looking for a lottery ticket that would pay out big if AAPL had another 50% gain year, or what your hope was.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,656
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 30, 2017 22:04:00 GMT -8
Who are these people? It's been close to 20 years since I day traded anything, and maybe 15 since I had both sides of a trade in the same week, so I can't speak for the traders. But an option purchase that works out well, whether it's held over a few days, months, or years....yes, I've definitely felt that it was fun. OTOH, it sounds like both Bud and I are at the point of needing to diversify a bit. For me, over the past 20 years I've held through 6+ AAPL downturns, multiple times losing as much as 85% of my portfolio due to the magic of margin and/or options. I've even had to sell some to cover margin calls, while down considerable. Personally, I'm getting too old for that crap, and never want to be in that position again. I'm retired now, even though I've been eyeing a few business ideas I could start up. Like a director who puts in a plan to sell x number of shares every 6 months, I need to go ahead and sell off some shares, aiming to get my allocation down to 50% from 95% or so. It's tough to be unemotional about it...I've been through a lot with AAPL, and I think it has a lot left in it. But it is different now that it is so big. The truth is that in reading about many of the manias and panics over the years, AAPL has experienced many of those on a shorter timeframe than the market as a whole. And right now, with so much riding on iPhones, even if people continue using them in great numbers, it's likely to continue to cause the tide of the stock to go up and down. But for us, what the upside could bring us isn't as good as what the downside could take away. So while it's not time to sell it all, it is time to work towards shrinking the margin a bit, and diversifying enough that the next downturn in AAPL or the market won't be a major downturn for our accounts. And thus a managed progression in that direction, likely through some sales this year and covered calls that likely result in some sales in future years, is a good way to do that. Don't worry, I'll still own AAPL for a while. And if we don't have a major snowstorm, I'll still plan to take a day off from skiing in February to see everyone at the shareholder's meeting. After all, I went to my first one 20 years ago.
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Post by BillH on Oct 30, 2017 23:15:51 GMT -8
Who are these people? It's been close to 20 years since I day traded anything, and maybe 15 since I had both sides of a trade in the same week, so I can't speak for the traders. But an option purchase that works out well, whether it's held over a few days, months, or years....yes, I've definitely felt that it was fun. OTOH, it sounds like both Bud and I are at the point of needing to diversify a bit. For me, over the past 20 years I've held through 6+ AAPL downturns, multiple times losing as much as 85% of my portfolio due to the magic of margin and/or options. I've even had to sell some to cover margin calls, while down considerable. Personally, I'm getting too old for that crap, and never want to be in that position again. I'm retired now, even though I've been eyeing a few business ideas I could start up. Like a director who puts in a plan to sell x number of shares every 6 months, I need to go ahead and sell off some shares, aiming to get my allocation down to 50% from 95% or so. It's tough to be unemotional about it...I've been through a lot with AAPL, and I think it has a lot left in it. But it is different now that it is so big. The truth is that in reading about many of the manias and panics over the years, AAPL has experienced many of those on a shorter timeframe than the market as a whole. And right now, with so much riding on iPhones, even if people continue using them in great numbers, it's likely to continue to cause the tide of the stock to go up and down. But for us, what the upside could bring us isn't as good as what the downside could take away. So while it's not time to sell it all, it is time to work towards shrinking the margin a bit, and diversifying enough that the next downturn in AAPL or the market won't be a major downturn for out accounts. And thus a managed progression in that direction, likely through some sales this year and covered calls that likely result in some sales in future years, is a good way to do that. Don't worry, I'll still own AAPL for a while. And if we don't have a major snowstorm, I'll still plan to take a day off from skiing in February to see everyone at the shareholder's meeting. After all, I went to my first one 20 years ago. I've been through all the ups and downs myself yet remain all in on AAPL. I'll admit that my view of it has changed quite a bit from the beginning. Early on it was the best idea I had for growth (iPod days) with what I considered to be a limited downside what with oSX and it's built in security as the back stop. Today it's the best idea I have for security of wealth with a limited downside and its combination of OSX, iOS and it's chip development as a backstop. The world may continue to obsess about the device itself if it so chooses but I think it's computing and communication that provides the moat. Whether it's a piece of black glass, a wrist device, an ear bud, an implant doesn't much matter. You still have to write the software that tells it what to do and as of today I'll continue to say they have no viable competition. Doesn't mean they won't. Many of you may already have read this piece by Horace Deidu but it's the kind of thing that keeps me in my now semi-permanent Alfred E. Neuman state of mind. www.asymco.com/2017/10/02/silicon-valley/
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Post by rob_london on Oct 31, 2017 2:36:22 GMT -8
Hopefully a few nice pro reviews of the X come out tomorrow. Also, chatter in the rumor sites is that the lines at Apple stores should be starting tomorrow or the day after. Initial impressions from The Beard
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