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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 3, 2017 14:51:12 GMT -8
Closed right on an option expiry mark. Not the Max pain, but some pain to someone. I think we go higher form here next week.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 3, 2017 16:17:05 GMT -8
Closed right on an option expiry mark. Not the Max pain, but some pain to someone. I think we go higher form here next week. While I agree, looking mid term, 2-3 months out, I'm thinking we'll be back here at 170 at January Options Expiration, unless things change. There's a lot of open interest in the 170 and a couple higher strikes. Looking at the chart, I'm expecting this to be like 3 years ago, at the end of 2014 into 2015. It went up ~10%, and then came back down, coincidentally right around those LEAP expirations. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90827424556For comparison, my notes show a YOY 20% gain in earnings that FY'14 Q4, vs the 24% we just saw for FY'17 Q4. History doesn't always repeat. I don't recall what else was happening then, with Apple and beyond. And 110k of options (just on 170's) is only 11M stock, a little less than a fifth of what was traded today. Still, my guess right now is that the stock will rise to absorb this enthusiasm, but then shrink again. Maybe. But it looks likely enough that if I was being overly bullish in the short term, I'd at least look at getting out of part of it if things stalled. (but then in 2015, the stock shot up 25% starting at the end of January. I want a piece of that action....again!)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 3, 2017 20:36:49 GMT -8
Received my iPhone X a little while ago but can't activate it. Apparently Apple's activation servers are overwhelmed. I guess that's a good thing. I'll wait until tonight. Bummer, but it beats not having an operating system. (CNBC warning). Cheers all! I'm having a nice Go To IPA.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Nov 3, 2017 21:10:25 GMT -8
Received my iPhone X a little while ago but can't activate it. Apparently Apple's activation servers are overwhelmed. I guess that's a good thing. I'll wait until tonight. Bummer, but it beats not having an operating system. (CNBC warning). Cheers all! I'm having a nice Go To IPA. The article said it gave a message "No Valid OS Installed" so technically it COULD have had Android loaded
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Post by appledoc on Nov 4, 2017 4:41:04 GMT -8
History doesn't always repeat. I don't recall what else was happening then, with Apple and beyond. And 110k of options (just on 170's) is only 11M stock, a little less than a fifth of what was traded today. Still, my guess right now is that the stock will rise to absorb this enthusiasm, but then shrink again. Maybe. But it looks likely enough that if I was being overly bullish in the short term, I'd at least look at getting out of part of it if things stalled. (but then in 2015, the stock shot up 25% starting at the end of January. I want a piece of that action....again!) I can't fathom selling off between now and January in the absence of any broad market meltdown. A record revenue and almost record income in 4Q (2015 income was a touch higher). Utter hysteria over the iPhone X. Guidance range basically above what the market was looking for. The holiday season is going to be huge for the entire product line. Year 2 of AirPods, LTE Apple Watches (everyone seems to have an Apple Watch these days), etc. Can't wait.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2017 7:08:39 GMT -8
History doesn't always repeat. I don't recall what else was happening then, with Apple and beyond. And 110k of options (just on 170's) is only 11M stock, a little less than a fifth of what was traded today. Still, my guess right now is that the stock will rise to absorb this enthusiasm, but then shrink again. Maybe. But it looks likely enough that if I was being overly bullish in the short term, I'd at least look at getting out of part of it if things stalled. (but then in 2015, the stock shot up 25% starting at the end of January. I want a piece of that action....again!) I can't fathom selling off between now and January in the absence of any broad market meltdown. A record revenue and almost record income in 4Q (2015 income was a touch higher). Utter hysteria over the iPhone X. Guidance range basically above what the market was looking for. The holiday season is going to be huge for the entire product line. Year 2 of AirPods, LTE Apple Watches (everyone seems to have an Apple Watch these days), etc. Can't wait. Ah Doc (I forget, is that you Julie?), you've been through this a few times. This isn't the first time there's been great enthusiasm, in the stock and company. I'd love to see AAPL shoot up. We're making great money with every point. But it's happened more than a few times, where the stock sometimes moves in ways that don't make sense, especially when people are euphoric. Twice for me, that was when I was considering new or expensive cars. And then there was the time with the Yahoo group, where they met up at Gregg's in Spokane...just after the high. Was that the start of 2007? And now there's talk of Vegas... Ken Fisher sometimes refers to the market as The Great Humiliator in his books. I'm just suggesting to keep an eye open to try not to be blindsided, and maybe sell some along the way if things seem frothy but lose their momentum, instead of staying all-in. I know in the past I have stayed overly invested when I should have seen some of the signs. But in the case of the start of 2015, right then it really didn't matter unless you were forced out by expiration of options, or a margin call. As the chart shows, the stock came back well in Feb that year. It wasn't until later on that it faltered, on the back of growth faltering. Sometimes there's substance. Other times over the years, there hasn't been. Enjoy the euphoric ride, but keep an eye out for those unexpected dips.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 4, 2017 8:56:10 GMT -8
IMO, prior unsuspected declines have been associated with the lack of “what’s the next iPhone?”. The answer now appears to be that there is no “next iPhone”. It’s the combination of services, other devices, and content that will not only provide stability, but continue to propel the stock forward.
I’m not going to rule out a decline. But after this last report, I feel as comfortable now as ever.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Nov 5, 2017 7:59:19 GMT -8
I'll come to Vegas. Wouldn't it be great if we could round up Gregg and LoveMyIpad as well?
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