SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 4, 2017 5:31:51 GMT -8
What a great week for the longs... it seems AAPL and Apple are firing on all cylinders, (as Tim put it in the CC). The tone of Tim in the conference call was as ebullient as i have ever heard, and i think that bodes very well for us all.
My singular concern, iPhone X product availability, is now officially put to bed, as the following should show...
This is the largest iPhone rollout in the number of countries since the beginning of time. Here is the iPhone 7 country list from September 2016.
iPhone 7 availability countries
* Australia * Austria * Belgium * Canada * China * Denmark * Finland * France * Germany * Hong Kong * Ireland * Italy * Japan * Luxembourg * Mexico * Netherlands * New Zealand * Norway * Portugal * Singapore * Spain * Sweden * Switzerland * Taiwan * United Arab Emirates * United Kingdom * United States
And here are the November 3, 2017 iPhone X availability countries...
iPhone X availability countries
* Andorra * Australia * Austria * Bahrain * Belgium * Bulgaria * Canada * China * Croatia * Cyprus * Czech Republic * Denmark * Estonia * Finland * France * Germany * Greece * Greenland * Guernsey * Hong Kong * Hungary * Iceland * India * Indonesia * Ireland * Isle of Man * Italy * Japan * Jersey * Kuwait * Latvia * Liechtenstein * Lithuania * Luxembourg * Malta * Mexico * Monaco * Netherlands * New Zealand * Norway * Poland * Portugal * Qatar * Romania * Russia * Saudi Arabia * Singapore * Slovakia * Slovenia * South Africa * Spain * Sweden * Switzerland * Taiwan * United Arab Emirates * United Kingdom * United States
It is apparent that the Analyst supply checks were dead wrong ( I’m looking 👀 at you Ming ), as not only is it the widest product availability by country, but it appears Apple is building them by the container load on a daily basis. As of yesterday, November 3rd, in the early afternoon, almost all US stores were sold out, yet as of 7:00 AM EST this morning of November 4th, at least three large US cities, Chicago, Houston and New York City show immediate availability of all iterations of the iPhone X, as well as iPhone 8 available to pickup in store on day 2! Incredible usage of R&D expenditures, and once again Tim Cook et al, show their collective supply chain expertise!
It will be a very good Q1 indeed, and Apple’s guidance of 84-87 Billion should easily be topped, especially so, if the new HomePods and iMac Pro’s ship with adequate time for stocking stuffers this Christmas.
Cheers to the longs!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 4, 2017 5:50:08 GMT -8
That Was The Week That Was (one of the all-time great political satire shows; you young'uns could look it up), largest weekly increase since August 4, and a quick look didn't find a greater two week leap since the split. Apple iPhone X Doubters Are Straight Up Dumb predicts a monster holiday season for Apple, bolstering my suspicions about a possible hidden benefit of its release being pushed closer to Christmas (although who really knows whether the excitement would have been any less with an earlier release). I fully expect Chinese New Year to follow the same path. Apple taps $900B after a blowout fourth quarter celebrates one financial milestone, and points the way to the once unthinkable $1T target. Party on, Garth! (yup, all geezer references this morning)
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 4, 2017 5:54:22 GMT -8
chinacat, sorry to have stepped on your toes...
Party on indeed!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 4, 2017 6:07:35 GMT -8
chinacat, sorry to have stepped on your toes... Party on indeed! No problem, always good to see enthusiasm in the group!
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Post by sponge on Nov 4, 2017 7:55:44 GMT -8
Great quarter. Guidance could have been better. Confirmation that despite large x rollout, they still can’t make enough.
I wonder if we correct similar to post 8 launch. It won’t happen right away given we are so close to ER, but it starts with FUD and then for good measures Congress or Trump screw up the tax bill passage and it gets delayed. I am counting on two things. A 5-8% selloff. If we only get 5% then we can still hit my 180-185 target for January. If we get the 8% then it may be harder to reach 185.
Those OI calls between 170-190 look like perfect targets for market manipulation. Run the stock up to 180-183 between now and Dec, then Bam bring it down in January. There will be. Enough time until ER to bring it back up. It worked in June and Oct.
I recall well in Dec 2014 after incredible excitement over the 6 the stock still corrected 11.5%.
Now on the bright side, I think lack of X units bodes well for awesome guidance in January. The momentum of sales in every category, especially Apple Watch and services, will continue to help us expand p/e. So I can see 200-210 a share by April. Was not sure about that until I saw the quarter release.
Apple is on a tear as a company. More and more people are switching. The 51% intention to stay with Samsung, vs 95% with iPhone is a huge gap that is getting bigger. I recall when they were only single digits apart.
I thin the SE upgrade in March or April will bring us more Android converts and provide more fuel for a solid FY18.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 4, 2017 8:04:04 GMT -8
November 4, 2017 Noon 12:00 PM EST update...
Well it was good while it lasted... Miami stores all sold out, all flavors of X 🤨 Manhattan stores sold out of all except Fifth Avenue which has 64 GB only of the X 😐 Houston stores all sold out of all models, though a drive to San Antonio will get you the 64GB iteration 😐 Denver stores all have availability of all models at opening 😄 LA stores all have availability of all models at opening 😄 Honolulu Royal Hawaiin store has all iterations prior to opening, the other two stores have none 😐
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Post by wildguess on Nov 4, 2017 8:11:07 GMT -8
I went to my local Apple store in Sarasota yesterday around 11:00. There were at least 100 people in line. I decided not to wait in line and ordered it online and get delivery December 4-11. I went to the store today and there was a line of about 15. They had my phone in stock so I cancelled online order. Now I wonder. Is there as much demand as it seems or do they have a huge inventory?
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 4, 2017 11:00:16 GMT -8
A midday bit of anecdotal evidence regarding iPhone X availability in the US...
I have been tracking Apple retail store availability in 8 markets, New York City, Miami, Chicago, Houston, Denver, L.A., Seattle and Honolulu since November 3rd early AM. I have been checking only for AT&T and Verizon units in both Silver and Space Grey, at both 64GB and 256GB for a total of 8 sku's, going forward I will just check AT&T sku's to keep research time to a minimum (it appears from 5 data point checks thus far, that the stockouts are fairly equal for both A&T and Verizon). I have been checking stockouts three times a day, 8:00 AM, 12:00 PM and 6:00 PM EST.
Here are some early insights...
iPhone X 256 GB units for both AT&T and Verizon are selling out first. IPhone X 256 GB Silver units sell out first, followed by 256 GB Space Grey units for both providers. iPhone X 64 GB Silver units sell out first, followed by 64 GB Space Grey units for both providers. iPhone X 64 GB in Space Grey appear to be the last to go for both providers.
My initial takeaway as it were... People are buying 256 GB units over the 64 GB units in all markets (this could be skewed by lack of quantity mix each store is receiving of the 64 GB and 256 GB units, but if equal numbers are assumed for both, the 256 appears more desirous). This should bode well in incrementing Apple’s ASP in Q1 2018 for iPhones, and add quite a few basis points in GM for the quarter. iPhone X Silver units are selling out before Space Grey units in both 64 GB and 256 GB for both providers (this again could be skewed by unequal quantity mix of Silver and Space Grey units received by each store, but assuming equal numbers of both, Silver appears to be the preferred color choice). It appears in all 8 markets thus far, that if you get to the store late, you will have little choice but to buy an iPhone X 64 GB in Space Grey or try again another day!
I have way too much time on my hands... 🤔
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Nov 4, 2017 12:29:05 GMT -8
I'm on the Annual Upgrade Plan and was thinking about getting the X, but couldn't justify the $50+ a month for a phone - even the world's best. Next year maybe I'll cough up more $$ for Apple, but this round chose to trade in my 7 for an 8. It arrived in two days. Not knowing how to proceed with my old phone, I took it to my local Berkeley Apple Store, where an attentive young man took it off my hands. He said they still had some Xs in stock, but had been selling them well all day. A genius then helped me with my son's SE which had "stubborn dirt" lodged in the headphone jack. The service was fast and excellent, as usual. Today a box from Apple came: "It's time to return your iPhone 7. Use the enclosed box..."
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 4, 2017 13:00:59 GMT -8
Does anyone recall the name of the independent iPhone US availability tracking website, which shows a Green and Red dots depending on stock? I think you could flip back to see previous day's stock. (If I find it, I'll come back and update post.)
I went to Best Buy to pick something up this afternoon. A department lead had his iPhone X and was walking around the front of the store telling a few walk-in customers that he had his and loved it. He took it out its case to hand to me and show me the navigation gestures. It certainly has a premium look and feel. He ordered through Best Buy's system just as the store opened on order day, originally had a Nov 11th date. He is one very happy owner, loving Face ID. No, as you might expect, he didn't have insight on Best Buy's allocation or orders.
While I hoped for more of a bump up yesterday, I'll take an ATH any day.
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 4, 2017 13:04:37 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 4, 2017 13:07:34 GMT -8
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 4, 2017 13:58:31 GMT -8
Good article. It shines the light on influence pedaling and potential for ethics problems and corruption with technology sales to districts. I recall articles about LAUSD issues rolling out technology (much of it via Apple iPads), but a lot of those questions were of competence and poor implementation and logistics. I see a lot of money, and what should be class learning time, being spent dealing with technology that is, well, I'll just say the program including teacher training is not mature. Mr. Reich of Stanford suggested school districts establish clearer rules governing their relationships with vendors, particularly with tech companies racing to win over the gatekeepers to America’s classrooms. Otherwise, parents could lose trust in the system. “School leaders should be just as concerned about the perception of corruption as actual corruption,” he said.
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Nov 4, 2017 14:11:01 GMT -8
Does anyone recall the name of the independent iPhone US availability tracking website, which shows a Green and Red dots depending on stock? I think you could flip back to see previous day's stock. (If I find it, I'll come back and update post.) I went to Best Buy to pick something up this afternoon. A department lead had his iPhone X and was walking around the front of the store telling a few walk-in customers that he had his and loved it. He took it out its case to hand to me and show me the navigation gestures. It certainly has a premium look and feel. He ordered through Best Buy's system just as the store opened on order day, originally had a Nov 11th date. He is one very happy owner, loving Face ID. No, as you might expect, he didn't have insight on Best Buy's allocation or orders. While I hoped for more of a bump up yesterday, I'll take an ATH any day. Apple has its own availability site... www.macrumors.com/2017/11/04/iphone-x-availability-at-apple-stores/
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 4, 2017 14:12:33 GMT -8
Thank you.
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 4, 2017 17:32:49 GMT -8
I think the SE upgrade in March or April will bring us more Android converts and provide more fuel for a solid FY18. What "SE upgrade" are you referring to?
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Post by sponge on Nov 4, 2017 17:41:12 GMT -8
I think the SE upgrade in March or April will bring us more Android converts and provide more fuel for a solid FY18. What "SE upgrade" are you referring to? The iPhone SE. it will be 2 years from last update. They don’t sell many, but those who buy them do so for low price and small size.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2017 19:23:26 GMT -8
We stopped by Costco in Carson City NV between soccer games today. They are about 30 minutes to the nearest Apple store, in Reno. At a little after 2pm, the rep was selling his "4th to last iPhone X, all 4 were the 256gig version". 2 of the remaining were going to people cued in line, and the guy buying turned to his wife and tried to convince her to get the last one.
While I was tempted to jump in and offer to buy it, just to egg her on, I just continued looking at their offers. $100 gift card with Verizon. Or BOGO with AT&T, but you had to add at least one new line. While tempting to get a new phone, we're not ready to give our nearly 11 year old his own phone, even if we get a free 8 or X out of the deal.
We stopped in at Target too, but couldn't tell if they had any in stock, and the employee was busy with a few people. It looks like that may be a great place for prepaid wireless, as they had 7 or 8 services. They did have both sides of an isle just for Apple and Apple related stuff....a mini store right there. We did walk out with a couple Halloween costumes for next year, at 70% off.
It's interesting to think about the online vs in-store split. In general, people in store might pick something else up, even if it's just a case. And in high-demand times, having more availability of the higher memory config might raise that ASP even more. I have a feeling Apple has thought about this...
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 4, 2017 19:48:55 GMT -8
I went to my local Apple store in Sarasota yesterday around 11:00. There were at least 100 people in line. I decided not to wait in line and ordered it online and get delivery December 4-11. I went to the store today and there was a line of about 15. They had my phone in stock so I cancelled online order. Now I wonder. Is there as much demand as it seems or do they have a huge inventory? My answer.... 🤔
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 4, 2017 21:01:45 GMT -8
What "SE upgrade" are you referring to? The iPhone SE. it will be 2 years from last update. They don’t sell many, but those who buy them do so for low price and small size. The last SE update was earlier this year (April?), they changed the memory sizes to 32/128. The current SE has the innards of a 6S (pretty much) which is still in the product line. Do you really think they will update it again in early 2018? And if so, what innards do you think they will use? 7? 8? And why would they continue to sell the 6S (with 6S innards) and sell the "upgraded SE" (with more modern innards) at a [substantially] lower price? I'm not sure if that makes sense.
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Post by sponge on Nov 4, 2017 21:21:59 GMT -8
The iPhone SE. it will be 2 years from last update. They don’t sell many, but those who buy them do so for low price and small size. The last SE update was earlier this year (April?), they changed the memory sizes to 32/128. The current SE has the innards of a 6S (pretty much) which is still in the product line. Do you really think they will update it again in early 2018? And if so, what innards do you think they will use? 7? 8? And why would they continue to sell the 6S (with 6S innards) and sell the "upgraded SE" (with more modern innards) at a [substantially] lower price? I'm not sure if that makes sense. Well when they introduced it, the processor matched the latest Apple had to offer. I can see them put in the A10 with the latest camera. Those who buy it will do so mostly for size. It would be an incredible value. Then a year later upgrade to A11 and wireless charging.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 5, 2017 4:30:03 GMT -8
Kuo has lost all the credibility that he once had. He nailed the screen size early but that’s about it.
A list of his errors: “Function area” Touch ID Supply
It’s one thing to be wrong, it’s another to put stuff out that makes no sense whatsoever. Reporting in August that Apple was still trying to make TouchID work was comical. No way they are making such major decisions a month before launch. Mark Gurman was also wrong - he broke the FaceID story (quite late) but incorrectly attributed it to not being able to make Touch ID work at the last minute. In fact, FaceID is probably the #1 selling point of iPhone X.
Kuo has the gall to already be talking about h 2018 model. I hope he stops getting as much coverage as does - he doesn’t deserve it.
Apple’s guidance was strong, but given the improving supply and apparent demand, they should be able to knock it out of the park. I’d actually be slightly concerned about demand if the “only” meet guidance, because any production issues seem to be sorted out. It feels like the X has better initial supply than the 6/7 Plus did.
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 5, 2017 8:20:37 GMT -8
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ono
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Post by ono on Nov 5, 2017 8:30:12 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Nov 5, 2017 8:33:06 GMT -8
That would be only about 13+ million. I think Apple is supply restraint and they confirmed in CC that they don’t know when they will reach balance. So rumors about part shortages are true. Tim used interesting words describing this launch. He said sells were strong and referred to the process as getting under way. To me underway describes a train or ship that leaves station or port. It starts slowly before gathering speed. Apple chose to distribute the launch to as many countries as possible for maximum affect. The more people know about the X the more will visit their stores online and physical locations.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 5, 2017 10:31:56 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 5, 2017 10:36:45 GMT -8
*to date
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 5, 2017 15:34:45 GMT -8
In iPhone X: My Week With the Future of the iPhone Ben Bajarin attempts to project from the features introduced by the iPhone X where iPhones will be heading in the future. He has some particularly interesting commentary about both the camera system in the X as well the A11 Bionic, and beats the same drum about the potential of Apple's silicon advantage that I have been boring all of you with.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 5, 2017 16:17:33 GMT -8
Stopped by the same Carson City Costco today, at noon or so. They still had one X for AT&T, and it turned out they had 2 for Verizon.
He didn't think they would be getting any more for quite a while...like December. Personally, I think Apple toes the line better than that, realizing that they need to have it out there in different places, even if they don't get as much profit off of a sale at an outside store, vs a sale at an Apple store, vs a sale at the Online store. I imagine they will trickle in at some rate, but likely more-so in places Apple gets more earnings from....including Apple Stores, since it ups traffic and sales of extra stuff.
He also said there was a partial work-around to AT&T's thing of having to add a line to get a BOGO deal. You'd have to be willing to sacrifice one phone number, by canceling it, and then getting a new one for that user. It's almost tempting...
Good luck all! In a strong but not amazing post-earnings week, we've seen a lot of times where this Friday's closing price ends up matching last Friday's price. I think this earnings and iPhone X timing are special, and that volume and demand could be high enough that such a thing might not happen this time, but it's worth the reminder that it has happened a after a few quarterly reports recently. Thinking that way, I'm guessing Friday will either close near 172.5, or a little off of 180 after a run to it, say 177.5-179.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 5, 2017 17:38:52 GMT -8
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