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Post by sponge on Feb 2, 2018 9:25:45 GMT -8
Every time AAPL tries jumping over 163, there's somebody pulling it down even harder. New LODs will be seen soon. I give it one more hour and then we should work our way up to 164+.
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Post by sponge on Feb 2, 2018 9:32:00 GMT -8
Last time RSI was this low it was in May 2016.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 2, 2018 9:42:31 GMT -8
$1 dividend would be cool Apple tends to be conservative when it comes to dividends. They did not even hint on when they were going to use the 163 billion. I do think they will raise dividend 15% instead of 9%. When it comes to buying stock, I can see them spending $40 billion this quarter given the discount. They’re not authorized to spend $40B this quarter.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 2, 2018 9:44:08 GMT -8
AMZN is doing just "okay" by being up "only" 6% or $85. If the markets were green today it would be up $150. Smart man, tuffett!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 2, 2018 9:47:45 GMT -8
While waiting for the market to regain its senses about AAPL...
One of the features of Face ID that I enjoy the most is the automatic opening of password-protected web sites. It doesn't mean that I will be able to throw away my list of passwords, but it sure will reduce the number of times I have to refer to it. It made me wonder why this was never implemented for Touch ID, or did I just miss it?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 2, 2018 9:54:14 GMT -8
AMZN is doing just "okay" by being up "only" 6% or $85. If the markets were green today it would be up $150. Smart man, tuffett! Apple is the strongest company but they get treated like shit. After the strongest five years of any company in history, it’s barely outperformed the NASDAQ and greatly underperformed against the big names in tech. A lot of concentration risk for what has been almost zero reward. I’m in the markets to make money - nothing else. Diversifying my investments into companies that seemingly do no wrong was an obvious choice after a few painful years. That being said, at this point I’m looking to rotate some money out of AMZN and into AAPL if the two continue to diverge. All the cash potential is now unlocked to be fully utilized - that’s huge.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 2, 2018 9:56:08 GMT -8
Total AAPL puke. This is either the bottom or the start of a true year-Long bear like we’ve had in past down years. Who knows!
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 2, 2018 10:19:35 GMT -8
Every time AAPL tries jumping over 163, there's somebody pulling it down even harder. New LODs will be seen soon. I give it one more hour and then we should work our way up to 164+. Instead, with the Dow at -400, it looks like the flush to 160 is coming.
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Post by sponge on Feb 2, 2018 10:22:14 GMT -8
I give it one more hour and then we should work our way up to 164+. Instead, with the Dow at -400, it looks like the flush to 160 is coming. Sadly you may be correct.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 2, 2018 10:44:24 GMT -8
I encourage all of you to take a look at the Jan 19 weekend thread. Not as an “I told you so” but rather as a warning against perpetuating the groupthink mentality from a few people that seem not to want to hear a word of negative or dissenting thought. Turning a discussion board into an echo-chamber is very dangerous, and really strips out much if its value.
We should be watching out for potential corrections ahead of time, not after a $20 drop, but people seem caught by surprise over and over again.
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Post by sponge on Feb 2, 2018 10:51:32 GMT -8
I encourage all of you to take a look at the Jan 19 weekend thread. Not as an “I told you so” but rather as a warning against perpetuating the groupthink mentality from a few people that seem not to want to hear a word of negative or dissenting thought. Turning a discussion board into an echo-chamber is very dangerous, and really strips out much if its value. We should be watching out for potential corrections ahead of time, not after a $20 drop, but people seem caught by surprise over and over again. From a charting point of view we were in trouble since Nov. When the MACD started moving down. Once we broke the 20 and 50 MA, it should have confirmed we are in real trouble. I see that now more then ever.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 2, 2018 11:58:00 GMT -8
Quite frankly, there's no valid reason today for the Dow to be down 'so' much. It could recover in the last hour like it's done on many down days. If that happens we can expect to see AAPL close at 163+.
Sad but funny that crossing even 170 down the road will feel like a celebration. 175 would be orgasmic!
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 2, 2018 12:32:29 GMT -8
I think everyone needs to take a step back. Markets in general are overdue for a bit of a pullback.
Shit week. Life goes on. Deal with it.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 2, 2018 12:42:23 GMT -8
If the 200MA holds, this is healthy in the longer term. Watch for it to hit Monday. Hopefully it will bounce given how oversold the stock is right now.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 2, 2018 12:45:16 GMT -8
And it was less than a year ago that crossing 150 was orgasmic.
Everything is relative.
Would I like it if Apple proceeded in a nice steady progression? Of course. However nature doesn't work that way. The key is the trend.
I was not surprised to see a pull back. Indeed, pull back's around earnings are so common I would be surprised to see earnings unaccompanied by a pullback.
That said, I was surprised by the pullback before and after earnings. Somewhat surprised by the magnitude, but as Sponge noted, once we passed MA thresholds it was fait accompli. AAPL has a history of 'deep dives' that appear divorced from fundamentals. It also has a history of strong recoveries from the same. I anticipate this time will not be any different. The question now is how far and when will the turn around occur?
At this point, I would love to see the dip hold through the dividend payment. Seems unlikely, but I'd welcome the buying opportunity. Though it wouldn't surprise me if it popped before and dropped after. I'll be watching carefully for entry points.
As to calling turns, IMHO the FUD level remains the best indicator. The piece of FUD that I missed in the last six months was the term "Supercycle" being bandied about by everyone except Apple. It was a setup. Hindsight is 50/50. Got so accustomed to looking for negative FUD that I didn't recognize the positive -- until too late.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 2, 2018 12:49:48 GMT -8
Another thought... It would be foolish to expect the run to $1T to be uninterrupted. AAPL will get there, but not without a few ups and downs along the way. Though it does look close.
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Post by macster on Feb 2, 2018 12:50:39 GMT -8
If you are long none of this matters with the current news cycle of rising interest rates, Govt corruption, massive bubbles in the stock markets, fud etc. War didn’t break out with China yet. I jest. If you are a player it does.
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Post by mrentropy on Feb 2, 2018 13:03:00 GMT -8
I picked a small number of 160 calls for a bounce. RSI is at historic lows and we are at the 200 day. I’ll sell them on any bounce and stop out below the 200 day. Lottery tickets
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 2, 2018 13:07:43 GMT -8
Like Since84 said, it's surprising that there were major pullbacks before AND after ER.
160.37. Ends near LOD. Oh well, it is what it is!
Looking forward to those trademark AAPL days when it flies for no reason while the rest are flat.
Cheers, everybody!!
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Post by jasper303 on Feb 2, 2018 13:34:03 GMT -8
Long time lurker here, but I still remember PED's article from exactly 5 years ago regarding the same issue: 14 week Q1 2012 vs 13 week Q1 2013… check fortune dot com/2013/02/02/apple-analysts-stupid-or-lazy/
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Post by appledoc on Feb 2, 2018 14:04:56 GMT -8
AAPL is almost always going to sell off harder in these bad days for the market. We'll see what kind of follow through we get next week. A 5-10% correction for the S&P would not be a bad thing, and we're already at 4% after this week. I played these earnings wrong and regret not having more cash than I do. Oh well.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 2, 2018 15:21:48 GMT -8
Hum...
The DOW dropped 666. Anyone superstitious?
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 2, 2018 19:05:09 GMT -8
AND NOW: 5,213,840,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of April 21, 2017 32,700,000 reduction Luca Maestri: We returned over $10 billion to investors during the quarter. We paid $3 billion in dividends and equivalents, and we spent $4 billion on repurchases of 31.1 million Apple shares through open market transactions. We also launched a new $3 billion ASR, resulting in initial delivery and retirement of 17.5 million shares. And we retired 6.3 million shares upon the completion of our ninth accelerated share repurchase program in February. All these activities contributed to a net diluted share count reduction of 66.3 million shares in the quarter. We have now completed $211.2 billion of our $250 billion capital return program, including $151 billion in share repurchases. As Tim mentioned, today we're announcing an update to our program, which we are extending by four quarters through March of 2019, and increasing in size to a total of $300 billion. Once again, given our strong confidence in Apple's future and the value we see in our stock, we are allocating the majority of the program expansion to share repurchases. Our board has increased the share repurchase authorization by $35 billion, raising it from the current $175 billion level to $210 billion. We will also continue to net share settle vesting employees' restricted stock units. LUCA: We also returned $11.7 billion to investors during the quarter. We paid $3.4 billion in dividends and equivalents and spent $4.5 billion on repurchases of 30.4 million Apple shares through open market transactions. We launched a new $3 billion ASR program, resulting in initial delivery and retirement of 15.6 million shares, and we retired 3.4 million shares upon the completion of our 10th ASR during the quarter. We have now completed $222.9 billion of our $300 billion capital return program, including $158.5 billion in share repurchases. seekingalpha.com/article/4093437-apple-aapl-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single5,165,228,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of July 21, 2017 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019317000009/a10-qq32017712017.htm5,134,312,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 20, 2017. www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019317000070/a10-k20179302017.htm30,916,000 share reduction. 5,074,013,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 19, 2018 www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019318000007/a10-qq1201812302017.htm60,299,000 share reduction
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 2, 2018 19:18:12 GMT -8
over 86 million shares traded today
CAPITULATION?
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Post by zzmac on Feb 2, 2018 22:30:40 GMT -8
Apple dropped today with the broader market. But IMHO I think iPhone sales were down because of the battery issue. I have a 6 and it has become slow as a pig. I’m waiting 3 weeks now for my battery to be delivered to my store so that I can then go down there and wait 3-4 hours probably while they replace it. I’m all in with Apple and even though A part of me wants to believe they didn’t throttle to get people to buy new phones, I was pissed enough to not upgrade like I had planned. I am a small sample but I know others who felt the same and I know Apple has been inundated with requests for battery replacements. And who knows how many billions they’ll lose in lawsuits to foreign govts etc. Their new iPhone lineup is awesome and I can’t see another reason for the decline in sales and guidance. Shame on Apple for keeping this a secret until they were caught. Not something I ever thought they would do and they (and us) are being punished for it Not a happy camper.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 2, 2018 22:35:56 GMT -8
Apple dropped today with the broader market. But IMHO I think iPhone sales were down because of the battery issue. I have a 6 and it has become slow as a pig. I’m waiting 3 weeks now for my battery to be delivered to my store so that I can then go down there and wait 3-4 hours probably while they replace it. I’m all in with Apple and even though A part of me wants to believe they didn’t throttle to get people to buy new phones, I was pissed enough to not upgrade like I had planned. I am a small sample but I know others who felt the same and I know Apple has been inundated with requests for battery replacements. And who knows how many billions they’ll lose in lawsuits to foreign govts etc. Their new iPhone lineup is awesome and I can’t see another reason for the decline in sales and guidance. Shame on Apple for keeping this a secret until they were caught. Not something I ever thought they would do and they (and us) are being punished for it Not a happy camper. I agree. I’m confident Apple did what they did with good intentions, but a lot of people don’t feel that way, even being long time Apple users. Regardless, a huge number of people are now aware that a simple battery replacement can drastically improve the performance of their phone. I don’t believe Tim for a second when he said they didn’t think about the impact of this. It’s obviously part of the reason for the lower than anticipated guidance.
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Post by pauls on Feb 4, 2018 12:22:52 GMT -8
It’s not a terrible time for Apple to take a hit for the battery fallout (and possible implications on phone upgrade #s). Battery replacement discount is the right move, it is a sticky move, it brings down cost of shares just as the veil is lifting on cash strategy (buyback war chest), and gives them and us a chance at discounted shares.
Soon there will be options for users to choose battery over speed, and these new-life iPhones will just expand user base. In time, more upgrades. It’s a way to hang on to the low end, and even grab share of the low end, through the 2nd hand market. I’ve always thought expansion of user base and retention (while adding services) is a good thing, even at the cost of muted upgrades. That they can do it while breaking records with a $1000 phone, while also beating yoy units on a week by week basis, is impressive.
I’m thinking about adding shares for the first time in a long time. Which is tough to justify after the gains of ‘17, and already being overweight.
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