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Post by sponge on Feb 3, 2018 9:58:15 GMT -8
All is far from lost.
This 12% drop reminds me of Dec 2014. The 6 came out. The biggest super cycle in 4 years.
By April 2015 we were at 135. We will be fine and feeling very good by August this year.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Feb 3, 2018 11:14:10 GMT -8
A bit watered down for the unthinking, unwashed masses 😬, but still this is the first article I've seen that goes beyond the "iPhone Miss" theme, that Apple is more than the # of phones it's sold in the last 90 days. mashable.com/2018/02/02/apple-iphone-x-halo-effect/?utm_campaign=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_cid=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial#G5p6HOz0dqq0"There's a common misunderstanding that if a company doesn't sell more of something, it means the product is a failure.
Case in point: iPhone sales fell year-over-year, and because of it, people trotted back out the same old tired narrative that Apple is doomed...again. But for real this time! They claim the iPhone X is a failure because $1,000 is simply too expensive for a phone!
But this narrative couldn't be further from the truth. Apple doesn't need to sell a higher number of iPhones at lower prices in order to continue smashing revenue records and stomp out all the competition.
Fixating on a tiny drop in iPhone sales misses the bigger picture..."
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Ted
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Post by Ted on Feb 3, 2018 13:56:00 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 3, 2018 14:02:34 GMT -8
Perhaps what we are witnessing is the market struggling with what type of stock AAPL is -- Aggressive Growth, Growth or even Income?
While I expect to AAPL to continue having record quarters, I consider growth at past levels unlikely. Why? Because to achieve that, AAPL needs to be growing exponentially. It is not. Further, it is unlikely to do so beyond short spurts around new products which themselves need to grow dramatically.
This is not meant to be contemptuous of AAPL's growth. What AAPL consistently does quarter after quarter, year after year is darn impressive.
However, given that AAPL's yield is not what one would expect from an income stock, less than 1.6%, the market does not value it as an income stock. Instead it continues to judge AAPL against Growth and even Aggressive Growth peers.
AAPL finds itself on the continuum between Growth and Income, where AAPL's performance is not 'exceptional' by either measure.
AAPL needs to recognize its transformation toward an Income stock and significantly increase the dividend. The dividend yield should be no less than 2% (3.20) and a lot closer to 3% (4.80) -- and those numbers are at current values.
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Post by nwjade on Feb 3, 2018 14:58:41 GMT -8
Perhaps what we are witnessing is the market struggling with what type of stock AAPL is -- Aggressive Growth, Growth or even Income? While I expect to AAPL to continue having record quarters, I consider growth at past levels unlikely. Why? Because to achieve that, AAPL needs to be growing exponentially. It is not. Further, it is unlikely to do so beyond short spurts around new products which themselves need to grow dramatically. This is not meant to be contemptuous of AAPL's growth. What AAPL consistently does quarter after quarter, year after year is darn impressive. However, given that AAPL's yield is not what one would expect from an income stock, less than 1.6%, the market does not value it as an income stock. Instead it continues to judge AAPL against Growth and even Aggressive Growth peers. AAPL finds itself on the continuum between Growth and Income, where AAPL's performance is not 'exceptional' by either measure. AAPL needs to recognize its transformation toward an Income stock and significantly increase the dividend. The dividend yield should be no less than 2% (3.20) and a lot closer to 3% (4.80) -- and those numbers are at current values. Lately I've been thinking the same thing regarding the dividend. IMO they would be well served to at least track the 2 year treasury (currently at 2.145%) and now after tax reform have much greater flexibility to do it.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 3, 2018 16:07:54 GMT -8
+1 to the dividend talk ^^.
The way Luca sounded, this dividend hike could likely happen. Matching the treasury or a 2% yield would be great but gauging Apple by their history of giving, a hike to $1 might be the max we will see in April. That and another 100bln buyback to be completed within the year would stabilize the stock quite a bit.
Also, Apple 'needs' to REALLY STEP UP with their original content production. Just acquire some studio(s) or content production companies, God damnit!! How hard can it be? As opposed to having a "Why buy when we could do it ourselves" attitude and being late to the game.
I can't tell you all how much my family is INTO Netflix! It's not an understatement when I say that Netflix is a 'must-have' thing for us. It's a part of our everyday lives. Not saying that we indulge too much into TV-watching but when the TV goes on, it's "Netflix time" because there's so much there for all age groups. My 3-year-old twin boys to my 7-year-old girl to me and my wife - there's a huge variety for each one of us and we're all happy and have hardly ever missed cutting the cord three years ago. Although I have Amazon Prime, we haven't fully explored their shows because Netflix has more than enough for us. But there are shows on Amazon that we know we'll definitely watch someday.
Apple -- with their bullshit Carpool shows, Planet of the Apps, documentaries, and other crap -- never comes to mind when it's time for TV. /end of rant
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Post by tuffett on Feb 3, 2018 17:35:48 GMT -8
I’m down for more dividends too.
While I won’t rule it out, I’m not as worried about a bear period like 2013 or 2015/16. The combination of double digit EPS growth for the foreseeable future, tax reform, and the return of $163 billion (plus $50-60B annually) should set a higher floor than the 9 or 10 P/E that we saw in the past.
I expect Apple to act responsibly and consider using their entire remaining buyback quota this quarter if the stock remains under pressure.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 3, 2018 17:52:04 GMT -8
... I expect Apple to act responsibly and consider using their entire remaining buyback quota this quarter if the stock remains under pressure. THIS is what I'm talking about. Buy sooner than later so the stock recovers quickly and not look like it's so badly broken that investors feel scared to come near it.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2018 3:52:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 4, 2018 10:57:59 GMT -8
Really not sure how to judge the market reaction after earnings. AAPL seemed to be moving up during Tim's call, but then got caught in the downdraft of the Friday market collapse. Yes, I know that the guidance was not quite what Wall Street "predicted," i.e., guessed. Oh well, this is when I am glad to be a long, and I tip my cap to those who trade AAPL because the short term always seems like a guessing game.
Time to get ready for Super Bowl LII (I wonder if the NFL regrets the faux grandiosity of the Roman numerals; Super Bowl C might finally be the breaking point.)
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ono
Member
compensation
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Post by ono on Feb 4, 2018 11:44:14 GMT -8
I wish Apple would provide growth charts in constant week in quarters around those with 14 weeks as well as y/y charts. Sure, Tim and Luca mention the variance in weeks, but they could post the numbers as well as illustrative charts. Sure, they shouldn't have to, but it would do us a service, if it would help avoid some headlines of iPhone sales down 1%, vs. actually up 6% or 7%. They shouldn't have to, but it would be good if they did. Like these, showing Services Minus Q1 2017's extra week and Q4 2017's extra $640 million: www.ped30.com/2018/02/04/apple-services-adjusted-q1-2018From www.patentlyapple.comThey were firing on all cylinders. Apple's 2017 fiscal Q1 had a full week less of iPhone sales than in 2016 accounting for iPhone sales missing their mark by 1% compared to last year. Cook pointed that out in his conference call and it fell on deaf ears.
On an equal number of weeks for the quarter, Apple would have shown growth for iPhones. The press didn't want to explain that important detail in their reporting and stuck with misinformation that Apple "missed" their iPhone sales; that they had "disappointing" iPhone salesUgh.
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Post by sponge on Feb 4, 2018 12:38:34 GMT -8
If I knew my company will do well in the next 5 years given the inside info I am privy to, and I know how much money I have to spend this quarter and the next 16 quarters, then I would welcome and sudden corrections in stock. No need to explain anything more to WS.
5 years ago the stock was at $70 a share. Those who bought then and who buy today, have been well rewarded and will benefit greatly in the future.
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ono
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Post by ono on Feb 4, 2018 13:23:07 GMT -8
Really not sure how to judge the market reaction after earnings. AAPL seemed to be moving up during Tim's call, but then got caught in the downdraft of the Friday market collapse. Yes, I know that the guidance was not quite what Wall Street "predicted," i.e., guessed. Oh well, this is when I am glad to be a long, and I tip my cap to those who trade AAPL because the short term always seems like a guessing game. Time to get ready for Super Bowl LII (I wonder if the NFL regrets the faux grandiosity of the Roman numerals; Super Bowl C might finally be the breaking point.) Perhaps a reason is that people listening to the conference call heard the caveats of the one less week and that on a weekly basis things were good, so AAPL was green. Later, everyone else saw the dismal headlines about iPhone sales being "down", thus the red. The algos measured the negativity in the headlines and traded accordingly. Add that the market was down, and we got what we got.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 4, 2018 13:25:12 GMT -8
While glancing through the comment section after reading an article on Seeking Alpha, I came across what I considered an interesting exchange between commenters and thought I would share it. The exchange deals with the disconnect between Apple's success and the recent pullback in share price, trading Vs investing and limiting the number of companies in one's portfolio. Why Is Apple Down 3% After Crushing Earnings?================================ forrest macgregor - Comments (449)
AAPL and Apple seem to have little to do with each other. It's like asking a teenager why they "love" someone? Who knows? It's sure as hell not reason that is in charge. Amazon, the undisputed king of profit avoidance, is up 5% today on news that surprised even their management... they made an unexpected (and extremely rare) profit? Who knew?
So, the herd rushed over there with their bitcoin profits, hoping Amazon's PE or 400 will go to 4000! Last week, it was litecoin and bitcoin cash and stellar lumens. Amazon is making rockets and selling dishwasher detergent and a hyperloop and flame throwers!
Get. real. Market. Unbelievable. Apple misses a quarterly target by less than most American companies gross in a year and the stock gets a haircut. Right.
02 Feb 2018, 01:58 PM ================================ mikefurman - Comments (86)
Indeed. This herd mentality started to bother me. I have been trading/investing on the stock market for only 3-4 years but I am also involved in crypto currencies/assets and I am more and more convinced that it all does not make much sense. There is no value analysis anymore and everyone is only reacting to the most recent rumour, reversing by a few % withing a few hours. We only care about some "potentially great gains". Very sad.
02 Feb 2018, 02:16 PM ================================ JP24 - Comments (3177)
Mike - there is a stark difference between 'trading' and 'investing'. Trading can be fun and profitable and you can probably learn how to do it in a matter of weeks or months. But unless you're the guy making the rules, it can be very dangerous. You're success always depends on the guy who is making the rules and you often don't know that the rules have changed until it's too late.
There is simply no way that you can fully appreciate the value of investing in a business like Apple in only 3-4 years. I'll bet that no more than 5% of the people who started trading in 2000, 2005, or 2010 and never stopped have been successful. On the other hand, 100% of those who started to invest in Apple at any of those times and never stopped has been incredibly successful.
But it does require some time, work, patience, and thought though.
02 Feb 2018, 09:21 PM ================================ mikefurman - Comments (86)
JP24 - good points. I have been an investor in some stocks but also a trader but I realized recently that I do not have a patience and confidence to be an investor. I cannot accept any "losses" both in life and on the stock market :-) I blame myself for failures and I am short term in anything I do in life.
03 Feb 2018, 08:23 AM ================================ JP24 - Comments (3177)
Mike - I guess it's always good to understand one's limitations. But it depends on how you measure success. It's likely that Tom Brady will be remembered as the best QB in the history of the game. It's not because he won A Super Bowl - a lot of guys have done that. It's because he's won 5 (and counting). During that time, he's also lost 2 SBs and didn't even make it to 10 others.
It's not about the battle, it's about the war. Making money is no different and Apple is like Tom Brady.
03 Feb 2018, 11:41 AM ================================ fendermon - Comments (1112)
@mike- Diversifying helped me greatly to take the emotional edge off. I no longer need to be right all the time since I have about 25 investments. It will sound lame to some, but it has helped me greatly. I can here someone's response saying "yeah, but you just built a mutual fund." That's OK, some mutual funds (including mine) perform great
04 Feb 2018, 04:23 AM ================================ JP24 - Comments (3177)
fendermon - 25 companies is a lot for any individual investor to follow. It's hard to really understand all of those businesses which requires, at a minimum, listening in on all of the con calls and reading all of the 10Ks and 10Qs. The biggest risk is that if you really don't understand the business that you're invested in, there's a good chance you'll end up selling at exactly the wrong moment. I paid a lot for that education.
But here's another argument for some level of diversification and patience. Let's say you had $10K and assume that you had invested $ 1K in 10 different stocks at the absolute height of the dot-com bubble in march of 2000 and Apple was one of those companies and you never sold. Even if ALL 9 of the other stocks went to ZERO, you would still have more than $40K today.
04 Feb 2018, 09:06 AM ================================ mikefurman - Comments (86)
I can barely follow 3-5 stocks when trying to do it well 😀
04 Feb 2018, 09:48 AM ================================ JP24 - Comments (3177)
Mike - no kidding. Somewhere around 6-8 is as much as I can handle and I have quite a bit of senior management experience in tech and at least a basic understanding of what I'm hearing and reading.
Personally, I find the concalls to be most useful. You get a sense of how good the leadership teams are. For example, it saved me a lot of money on GPRO. I bought the stock because I saw so many devices everywhere and I really liked the trajectory of the numbers and the possibilities of the business. I sold when it became obvious that the management team were dopes. I lost some money, but it could have been a lot worse. Apple is the exact opposite. I stuck with them after Steve Jobs passed for one reason - I thought he was one of the best ever and he hand picked Tim Cook to succeed him. Haven't been disappointed. Apple doesn't give a crap about what the analysts or pundits think, they just play their game. Given the fact they they are arguably the best publicly traded business in history, I'd say they've got some game.
Reading the filings is another thing all together. Even my eyes gloss over many times. My advise would be that if you can't (or don't want to) do it, hire a good financial advisor to do it for you. It'll cost you some money, but it will be well worth it in the long run.
04 Feb 2018, 10:26 AM ================================
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ono
Member
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Post by ono on Feb 4, 2018 13:59:50 GMT -8
If I knew my company will do well in the next 5 years given the inside info I am privy to, and I know how much money I have to spend this quarter and the next 16 quarters, then I would welcome and sudden corrections in stock. No need to explain anything more to WS. 5 years ago the stock was at $70 a share. Those who bought then and who buy today, have been well rewarded and will benefit greatly in the future. Interesting viewpoint. I appreciate the conflict between shareholders and the company (and long term holders with balls of steel) wishing to maximize its buybacks. And the opportunities that the volatility creates for traders. Sure AAPL has had a good 5 year run. So have the markets. And a lot of other stocks. Many, without the drama yhoo.it/2GLKv9nApple is a "do the math" stock, and Tesla, Amazon, and others are "listen to our story" stocks. I think the math could use an accompanying story as well, even if it's "here is how the math works, in pretty pictures". (see post above.) Anything to help investors better understand AAPL (the stock, and it's free cash flow) better, yielding a more consistent sentiment and a higher multiple. "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen!" Thats another way I can look at it. yhoo.it/2GLFnSM
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 4, 2018 16:02:18 GMT -8
I wish Apple would provide growth charts in constant week in quarters around those with 14 weeks as well as y/y charts. Sure, Tim and Luca mention the variance in weeks, but they could post the numbers as well as illustrative charts. Sure, they shouldn't have to, but it would do us a service, if it would help avoid some headlines of iPhone sales down 1%, vs. actually up 6% or 7%. They shouldn't have to, but it would be good if they did. ... On an equal number of weeks for the quarter, Apple would have shown growth for iPhones. The press didn't want to explain that important detail in their reporting and stuck with misinformation that Apple "missed" their iPhone sales; that they had "disappointing" iPhone salesUgh. Now that would be great! But it's asking for too much knowing how Apple chooses to be 'classy' and stay mum when it comes to defending its stock.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 4, 2018 16:10:57 GMT -8
How we fare on Monday depends a lot on how the futures open the market. They're already showing red by -160 but it's still too early because even the Asian markets haven't opened yet.
If both Asia and Europe fall out of fear then we're sure to open lower. That wouldn't make a dent on other FAANG stocks which are all still flying high but for AAPL, it'll suck!!
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 4, 2018 16:21:43 GMT -8
If I knew my company will do well in the next 5 years given the inside info I am privy to, and I know how much money I have to spend this quarter and the next 16 quarters, then I would welcome and sudden corrections in stock. No need to explain anything more to WS. 5 years ago the stock was at $70 a share. Those who bought then and who buy today, have been well rewarded and will benefit greatly in the future. Interesting viewpoint. I appreciate the conflict between shareholders and the company (and long term holders with balls of steel) wishing to maximize its buybacks. Now see, I've always believed that it's the folks who *trade* AAPL who have the steel body parts. I have a profound lack of interest in *risking* money that brings with it, the chance to *lose* money. For my wife and I, being long AAPL for 18+ years has meant no risk and no loss of our investment contributions. And the opportunities that the volatility creates for traders. Wait...the opportunities that the volatility creates for traders? Did I get that wrong again? I've always felt that it's the *traders* that contribute to that volatility. When the stock pulls back, our IRA dividends buy more shares with the same amount of dividends that would have bought fewer at a higher share price. So, actually, volatility benefits the AAPL Longs *and* the traders. Sure AAPL has had a good 5 year run. So have the markets. And a lot of other stocks. Many, without the drama yhoo.it/2GLKv9n Certainly many stocks have been more profitable than AAPL over a period of time. It's just a question of what stocks give a person confidence over the long term, and 18+ years ago, for us, that stock was AAPL. The ability of AAPL to weather the volatility since then has only increased our confidence in the company and the stock. Apple is a "do the math" stock, and Tesla, Amazon, and others are "listen to our story" stocks. I think the math could use an accompanying story as well, even if it's "here is how the math works, in pretty pictures". (see post above.) Anything to help investors better understand AAPL (the stock, and it's free cash flow) better, yielding a more consistent sentiment and a higher multiple. "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen!" Thats another way I can look at it. yhoo.it/2GLFnSM I don't disagree that "pretty pictures" can help explain things to folks who don't want to do the math or read the details. I just feel that many people in the market aren't interested in a 5, 10 or 15 years investment payoff but instead want a quick series of big payoffs_they want the Lotto winner stock. But for those with patience, AAPL *is* a Lotto winner stock, IMO.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2018 19:49:03 GMT -8
Apple is like Tom Brady? A cheating sack of shit who gets way more credit than he deserves? Man, I hope not.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 5, 2018 7:52:41 GMT -8
================================ forrest macgregor - Comments (449)
So, the herd rushed over there with their bitcoin profits, hoping Amazon's PE or 400 will go to 4000! Last week, it was litecoin and bitcoin cash and stellar lumens. Amazon is making rockets and selling dishwasher detergent and a hyperloop and flame throwers!
04 Feb 2018, 10:26 AM ================================Hmmm, his comment helps prove the point of the other two, that it's hard to follow many companies with enough detail to spot the turnaround or downturn potential. But come on, you don't know who is making rockets and "flamethrowers"? (side note: that CA lawmaker is fearful of a limited edition $500 torch, but doesn't notice the $20 propane torch you can pick up at home depot. Someone is just trying for some media attention) We saw the amazing Zuma launch on Dec 23rd when driving to SoCal, and I'm looking forward to seeing their test launch of Heavy this week. It helps a little that a friend works at SpaceX, but I think I'd be able to keep Amazon and Elon's companies separate either way. That said, I've had times where just keeping track of one company was more hours than a normal job. I try to be more hands off now, but if you multiply that by 4-10 companies, that adds up quick. More and more, the "lower management time" that looks right to me is a mix of one or more specific stocks, and then a mix of one or more index's or ETF's. It's taken 20 years to get to that point, and it's not right for everyone. But it fits out needs, and is the way I plan to move. ....just not yet. This AAPL thing, short term or long term, is getting to be a little Fun. (EDIT: Looks like I don't know a thing or two either. I thought Bezos was up to some space related fun, but hadn't heard much lately and so it slipped my mind. But apparently it's BlueOrigin, and he just wished Elon luck on tomorrow's launch. money.cnn.com/2018/02/05/news/companies/bezos-musk-falcon-heavy-launch-twitter/index.html Amazon has over 9,000 hits for flamethrower, but the top ones don't look elegant like Musk's. This is just the standard ice melt/weed kill type one I was thinking off at HD, for $40: www.amazon.com/Greenwood-Durable-Nozzle-Propane-Trigger/dp/B00O3AGOYO/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1517870995&sr=8-3&keywords=flamethrower )
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Post by appledoc on Feb 10, 2018 5:52:15 GMT -8
My guess for the S&P, which I think AAPL will trend with, is that we had 5 waves down from the January 26 high to Friday's low. Big red dog reversal off the SMA200 for the SPY, which I fully expect to see good follow through on Monday. Should get a three wave correction here, and I would look for at least 274 on the SPY. But it's a perfect setup for a bear trap, so could push higher, maybe even above the January high.
There's the possibility we're entering a bear market, but I'm of the opinion that the economy is too good for that to be true, and we're just reigning in some unrealistic gains.
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