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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 13:45:56 GMT -8
YAY, Lovey's back.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 13:52:33 GMT -8
YAY, Lovey's back.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 3, 2012 14:10:54 GMT -8
closed green atleast...?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 14:12:05 GMT -8
CNBC doing their best to keep AAPL aloft. 3 separate AAPL-related features today. I really don't like it when they start piping up as it's either to get people in at the top, get them out at the bottom, or trying to catch folk leaning the wrong way. It definitely seems like the big boys are trying to pump the stock for another wild ride back up. However the way it was demolished (thanks in part to the same big boys) from 700 to 500 has likely scared off some AAPL retail investors for the time being.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 14:19:26 GMT -8
I imagine "retail" investors are done with AAPL.
What a crappy day. Up $9 and lose it all.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 14:25:16 GMT -8
CNBC doing their best to keep AAPL aloft. 3 separate AAPL-related features today. I really don't like it when they start piping up as it's either to get people in at the top, get them out at the bottom, or trying to catch folk leaning the wrong way. It definitely seems like the big boys are trying to pump the stock for another wild ride back up. However the way it was demolished (thanks in part to the same big boys) from 700 to 500 has likely scared off some AAPL retail investors for the time being. I imagine retail will get back in around 650...then pile in some more after we make ATHs... Then we'll hit 750 so quickly, we'll expect 800 just as quickly...another influx of latecomers...just in time to get stuck with the bill. Something like that anyway.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 14:41:52 GMT -8
I have been holding out hope for AAPL to get back over the 200 DMA and moving toward the measured move area. The whole market seems to be running out of strength. The ISM carried more weight than China's PMI, construction spending and auto sales. Makes sense to me, 3 good, 1 bad, lets go with the bad. Today was very discouraging. I do not like W's, I hate W's, I want a V dang it. We should know in a few days.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 14:48:41 GMT -8
Makes sense to me, 3 good, 1 bad, lets go with the bad. Don't worry, when the sentiment pendulum swings the other way -- and it will...it always does -- the market will ignore all bad news...even rally on bad news...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 15:01:28 GMT -8
I think the republicans actually putting something on the table today re the fiscal negotiations is a good step - at least there is now an actual starting proposal laid out by each side, and hopefully they can start coming to an agreement somewhere in the middle.
Should be good for the markets.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2012 15:18:25 GMT -8
Not to mention, ASP says nothing about margins. Production costs drop with time as well.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 3, 2012 15:38:58 GMT -8
obviously i don't as well. im just saying that site is what they would use, down in those markets. i dabbled 4 years ago before I 'grew up' and learned some things. but on those types of forums, they would reference the analysis section as 'fact' to try to lure in(or scare away) buyers. regardless. it is just calculations based on the recent price movements. I'm just saying I don't plan to use anything there as an investing decision, personally. Longterm, they have RIMM as very bullish and AAPL as very bearish, sooo I don't think much else has to be said on the subject. For anyone who knows anything about TA, it's an excellent site. Those with an incomplete understanding of TA and/or no interest in market timing may not benefit from the information. I took a look at the site and thought the assessment of AAPL was fair. Naturally, it is only technical in nature with no fundamentals considered, but from a technicals perspective there wasn't much wrong with it. The only thing is that its conclusions contrasted with the desires of most of the folks here.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 3, 2012 15:43:05 GMT -8
CNBC doing their best to keep AAPL aloft. 3 separate AAPL-related features today. I really don't like it when they start piping up as it's either to get people in at the top, get them out at the bottom, or trying to catch folk leaning the wrong way. It definitely seems like the big boys are trying to pump the stock for another wild ride back up. However the way it was demolished (thanks in part to the same big boys) from 700 to 500 has likely scared off some AAPL retail investors for the time being. More a case of them trying to keep AAPL from sinking too much while they sell to retail. Then they can buy it back lower ready for the run to January earnings.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Dec 3, 2012 17:23:29 GMT -8
An off the wall thought regarding "Special Dividends"
It is becoming very apparent that "Wall Street" has little or no faith in our Congress. The Fiscal Cliff issue is pinching the butt of many major corporations, and they are most definitely relenting on the fact that America is FUBAR'd regarding the Cliff. I do not think tweedle dee and tweedle dum will resolve this before years end, what is surprising, is neither do the CFO's of Corporate America.
Cisco is giving the next three in a row, before years end. I guess the meeting that took place at Steve's place before he left the surly bonds was for nothing. Chambers was there.
The CNBC talking heads have had a field day with "Special Dividends", and have included "AAPL" as a potential company to offer one. Should Tim even consider this, and what are the ramifications?
Ramifications, as to the hurt we are in, re: the debt ceiling, and the proposed change for congress to vote for the fact that the President can raise the debt ceiling, unimpeded, so that Congress does not have to vote to raise, only vote for the fact they are against it?
I hope this is not too political, and I draw the wrath of Lovey. But, Politics and investing are very well intertwined.
Thoughts?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 3, 2012 17:25:50 GMT -8
It definitely seems like the big boys are trying to pump the stock for another wild ride back up. However the way it was demolished (thanks in part to the same big boys) from 700 to 500 has likely scared off some AAPL retail investors for the time being. More a case of them trying to keep AAPL from sinking too much while they sell to retail. Then they can buy it back lower ready for the run to January earnings. I'm playing it close to the vest, respecting what Avi said about dropping if we don't cover 594 (or so) soon. Hopefully, we get over 600 this week, take the 200 day, and start to feel okay about "up" again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2012 17:43:44 GMT -8
I'm playing it close to the vest, respecting what Avi said about dropping if we don't cover 594 (or so) soon. Hopefully, we get over 600 this week, take the 200 day, and start to feel okay about "up" again. You have more confidence in EW than I do. Nonetheless, Apple's making good on its pledge to launch in 100 countries by December 31. That means Apple is selling ALL it can produce this holiday quarter. We know it. Wall Street knows it. And Apple will confirm it in January. 50 -- 60M iPhones will produce a nice beat on lowered Wall Street expectations.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Dec 3, 2012 18:00:42 GMT -8
Mercel,
60 Million is overly optimistic. If, and I repeat, If Apple sells 60 Million iPhones this qtr, we will hit the 800 we all want. I do not think they can. As good as Tim C is in supply management, the infrastructure is not there yet. Ramp is not one quarter. It is Qtr/Over Qtr.
I do think 50 is in the bag, I know that if Tim has his way, it is fait accomplice!
temper temper
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 18:06:18 GMT -8
I'm playing it close to the vest, respecting what Avi said about dropping if we don't cover 594 (or so) soon. Hopefully, we get over 600 this week, take the 200 day, and start to feel okay about "up" again. You have more confidence in EW than I do... EW translation: shot clock's running out, bulls need to score soon, or the other team's getting the ball.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 18:09:09 GMT -8
Being down in AH is not helping my angst.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 3, 2012 18:13:29 GMT -8
I'm playing it close to the vest, respecting what Avi said about dropping if we don't cover 594 (or so) soon. Hopefully, we get over 600 this week, take the 200 day, and start to feel okay about "up" again. You have more confidence in EW than I do. Nonetheless, Apple's making good on its pledge to launch in 100 countries by December 31. That means Apple is selling ALL it can produce this holiday quarter. We know it. Wall Street knows it. And Apple will confirm it in January. 50 -- 60M iPhones will produce a nice beat on lowered Wall Street expectations. +1, putting too much faith in squiggly line chasers. Look how many were wrong in the last few months. The noise out there is getting ridiculous. Tweet this tweet that, blech. Like iPad said, sentiment is key, it's turned already (from where we were), we just need a little more.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 18:28:31 GMT -8
Being down in AH is not helping my angst. IMHO, no need to angst unless we lose the daily SMA-20.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 3, 2012 18:35:28 GMT -8
whats the current daily SMA-20? (standard moving average 20 day)
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 3, 2012 18:36:03 GMT -8
Is losing the SMA 20-- the point at which the other team officially gets the ball?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 18:51:33 GMT -8
Is losing the SMA 20-- the point at which the other team officially gets the ball? IMHO, yes, but tailor to your own timeframe. Different traders use different metrics, but SMA-20 works for me in any timeframe. Bullish above, bearish below. (When SMA-20 is flat, that's sideways, trendless consolidation...both sides get shaken out.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 18:55:28 GMT -8
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Post by podboy on Dec 3, 2012 19:00:53 GMT -8
Excuse my ignorance but who is this Avi character I hear so much about. Not to be confused with Ovi/Spongie : ). Thanks
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Post by podboy on Dec 3, 2012 19:03:34 GMT -8
Never mind google helps. Avi Gilburt got it. Is he a good resource? Seems like the majority of you respect his opinion.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 19:21:53 GMT -8
Never mind google helps. Avi Gilburt got it. Is he a good resource? Seems like the majority of you respect his opinion. For anyone who doesn't already frequent AFB's technical threads, I would say Scott Redler's daily (free!) videos are far more applicable and accessible. Avi's my EW teacher, and he's the only one I trust to teach me EW. That said, EW is very analytical, subjective, and damn hard. I could not even begin to wrap my brain around it until I had a solid TA foundation. I don't find EW at all "necessary" for trading; whereas I do find TA necessary (for market timing). The area where the two (EW and TA) overlap is Fibonacci levels, and I looooove Fibs!
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 19:31:22 GMT -8
Never mind google helps. Avi Gilburt got it. Is he a good resource? Seems like the majority of you respect his opinion. Lovey thinks a lot of him, I am still holding judgement. His latest article bugs me. He is calling for the market to go back to 2009 lows. Let me tell you right now, if that happens we will have a war of biblical proportions. The world finances are on shaky ground. To be honest I have always thought the only way to get out of this mess was to have a raging bull market. lovey always talks of if/then with him, I kind of view him as if it goes up, I told you so, if it goes down I was right. Basically covering every base, kind of like someone else.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 3, 2012 19:49:07 GMT -8
Mark, you're glass-half-emptying that article. He's saying before any kind of bear market (many say we've started a bear market already!), we will see SPX 1500-1630. He's saying the bull run isn't over and won't be over until we see new ATHs in 2013. Me, I just take things level by level. Break above one level of resistance, target the next. Break below one level of support, target the next.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 19:54:49 GMT -8
1500/1600, neither matters if 666 is coming.
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