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Post by Zeke on Dec 4, 2012 10:32:00 GMT -8
What that tells me is that GOOG is outperforming AAPL substantially. I was expecting to see an overlay that was similar. Yes the pattern is almost exact, but the percentages are way off. (1%) GOOG down 6 while AAPL down 10 when GOOG is 100 higher in share price is not comparable. And what that says to me is that the macro FC stuff is having an overall effect on both stocks, but the NPD report is bolstering GOOG somewhat. It shows them with big YOY gains. Microsoft, OTOH, is taking a big hit in both news threads.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 10:38:04 GMT -8
I just can't see this as being "cliff" related. The DOW is only down 20 points. This just seems to be a channel war. That is why I keep harping on 572. We stay above we are still in the channel (572-594), a break below and the channel is broke.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 11:19:31 GMT -8
We've retraced ~ 23.6% of the move from 505.75 to 594.59. AAPL DAILY CHART: Key Fibs
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 4, 2012 11:30:20 GMT -8
Yech. Hell bent on taking out 572. 3rd attempt underway...
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Post by wheeles on Dec 4, 2012 11:41:58 GMT -8
Be good to see a ramp into the close. We've been thrashing about down here too long. Time for a pop back up.
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Post by bernard on Dec 4, 2012 11:58:37 GMT -8
This the reason for decline?
"UBS analyst Steven Milunovich issued an early note to clients, maintaining a bullish rating on Apple, but said “significant P/E expansion” is unlikely for the shares, which are currently trading about 11.2 times the company’s estimated earnings for the next four quarters — more than 60% below its average multiple for the last 10 years, according to data from FactSet.
The experience of Google and Microsoft suggests that P/E expansion largely is over once margins peak and earnings growth moderates,” the analyst wrote. “Even bursts of faster revenue growth don’t tend to boost the multiple.”
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Post by fas550 on Dec 4, 2012 12:04:30 GMT -8
We've retraced ~ 23.6% of the move from 505.75 to 594.59. AAPL DAILY CHART: Key Fibs Hey do me a favor and take out that red dotted line point down. I don't like it. Seriously thanks. I don't begin to understand what all this means. Feel like Neo in the matrix the first time he looked at the screen with the raining green digits. Question: What is the significance of the Confluence point apart from that's where they meet?
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Post by terps530 on Dec 4, 2012 12:08:18 GMT -8
Yech. Hell bent on taking out 572. 3rd attempt underway... and 3rd bounce off it. Hopefully this is the strong bounce and our spring stays alive at 572.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 4, 2012 12:48:33 GMT -8
This the reason for decline? "UBS analyst Steven Milunovich issued an early note to clients, maintaining a bullish rating on Apple, but said “significant P/E expansion” is unlikely for the shares, which are currently trading about 11.2 times the company’s estimated earnings for the next four quarters — more than 60% below its average multiple for the last 10 years, according to data from FactSet. The experience of Google and Microsoft suggests that P/E expansion largely is over once margins peak and earnings growth moderates,” the analyst wrote. “Even bursts of faster revenue growth don’t tend to boost the multiple.” But he maintains a price target of $780 (in the article also). Of course he does not define a number for P/E expansion therefore leaving him no bar for failure. If we go to a P/E of 18 he can say see told you so. These guys crack me up with their "Expert Claims" but then provide zero of anything measurable. I can predict Apple will go down and Apple will go up and that is 100% certain. The value of it is worthless if I don't provide a date or by how much.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 12:50:51 GMT -8
This the reason for decline? "UBS analyst Steven Milunovich issued an early note to clients, maintaining a bullish rating on Apple, but said “significant P/E expansion” is unlikely for the shares, which are currently trading about 11.2 times the company’s estimated earnings for the next four quarters — more than 60% below its average multiple for the last 10 years, according to data from FactSet. The experience of Google and Microsoft suggests that P/E expansion largely is over once margins peak and earnings growth moderates,” the analyst wrote. “Even bursts of faster revenue growth don’t tend to boost the multiple.” I really hate it when they use numbers like 60% less than the last ten year. It manipulates the numbers way to much. His argument is also baseless because GOOG is a company that has run out of places to grow and saw there net income drop significantly this past quarter. The larger Apple gets it is to be expected that AAPL will not carry a high premium ((18-20 p/e) but the company is a cash generating machine and that is completely discarded. Tim, buy 40 million shares back and watch these assholes jump of a bridge. The fact that Apple is held to such a different standard annoys the heck out of me. To the point, that is not helping, I agree.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 4, 2012 13:00:38 GMT -8
Picked up some Dec 14th 565-570 BCS's for 3.1. Not a lot, but it looks like 570-575 is more likely to hold than not over the next couple weeks.
Tomorrow it might be time to wring any remaining value out of my Dec 605-615's and put it into something more likely. Looks like I bought them for 7.5k, and they're worth 2.3k now. They're late enough in the month I had hope, but it's looking like AAPL might be held back for a while.
And then there's the Jan 590-650's. They're only down a third or so, but it's a larger value. Might be time to take the safety route, even if I think they could still do decently. I haven't given up hope on them, but the smart route may be to move them now, and be happy with the plenty of other gains in lower Jan '13 positions.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 4, 2012 13:04:14 GMT -8
Apple closing price Jan 3, 2012. $411.23 Apple closing price today - $575.85
Year to date gain - 40%
Hey, I am an options trader too, currently staring at all red, but all the angst seems way overdone. Ya, we don't get the love we all want, and the world can strike us as unfair when we look at AMZN. But we are still up 40% for the year. Not too bad in most people's books.
Don't shoot the messenger, but people here need to get some perspective.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 4, 2012 13:04:41 GMT -8
Their 900 retail participants also don't mind sharing their sales data. Obviously, this does not include Apple stores, so their retail results pertaining to Apple are skewed by the fact that their data is from stores like Best Buy and others where the sales drones actually try to steer customers away from Apple products and toward items where they receive spiffs. So my question is, how reliable has NPD been in reporting sales in the past? I'm sure we have people who have tracked their performance here. Even if those other retail outlets were not steering customers away from Apple products, by excluding Apple stores and online Apple sales from the survey, the results are bound to be skewed. What percentage of Apple sales are from non-Apple outlets? You would have to take their survey results, then adjust by a correction factor to account for direct Apple sales to get more accurate results.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 13:11:01 GMT -8
Hey, I am an options trader too, currently staring at all red, but all the angst seems way overdone. Ya, we don't get the love we all want, and the world can strike us as unfair when we look at AMZN. But we are still up 40% for the year. Not too bad in most people's books. Don't shoot the messenger, but people here need to get some perspective. My perspective is AAPL is trading for a p/e of 13, nothing else is relevant. The company earned that increase and much more. There is nothing that justified a 200 point drop, nothing, SJ can only die once.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 13:33:08 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 4, 2012 13:42:14 GMT -8
Looking forward to the play by play. Lovey at shortstop, Zeke for catcher, mb for first baseman and so on.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 13:48:33 GMT -8
Question: What is the significance of the Confluence point apart from that's where they meet? When lots of different slices & dices point to the same place, that's confluence. Just a place to watch as a potential target.
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Post by bernard on Dec 4, 2012 13:49:50 GMT -8
Hey, I am an options trader too, currently staring at all red, but all the angst seems way overdone. Ya, we don't get the love we all want, and the world can strike us as unfair when we look at AMZN. But we are still up 40% for the year. Not too bad in most people's books. Don't shoot the messenger, but people here need to get some perspective. My perspective is AAPL is trading for a p/e of 13, nothing else is relevant. The company earned that increase and much more. There is nothing that justified a 200 point drop, nothing, SJ can only die once. But don't you see how this is all a Kafka-esque parody of reality. APPL goes parabolic early in the year. OK some basis for the rise. Then it sells off in May. Second OK: The prior run-up was overdone. Then for little or no reason it starts a rise in July after a disappointing 3Q earnings report. ( I am discounting the IPhone 5 and IPad mini announcements as a basis for the rise as even my dog knew they were coming). Then in one of the most dishartening spirit crushing and unfathomable moves, it drops 200 points in eight agonizing weeks. Takeaway: APPL is controlled by a master puppeteer that can make the stock do whatever it wants, JUST BECAUSE THEY CAN. Assisting in this charade is the company itself that gives inscrutable guidance figures. Any other company would have its hand held to the fire. The dangerous part in trading options is that the stock does not behave in a rational manner. We cannot use any paradigm to forecast price movement. Nothing seems to have worked this year: It has been over one month and we have not reclaimed the 200DMA; the at any 6 month point in the future APPL will trade higher axiom fell apart last October; etc. When you throw the metrics out what have you left???
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Post by appledoc on Dec 4, 2012 14:01:06 GMT -8
My perspective is AAPL is trading for a p/e of 13, nothing else is relevant. The company earned that increase and much more. There is nothing that justified a 200 point drop, nothing, SJ can only die once. But don't you see how this is all a Kafka-esque parody of reality. APPL goes parabolic early in the year. OK some basis for the rise. Then it sells off in May. Second OK: The prior run-up was overdone. Then for little or no reason it starts a rise in July after a disappointing 3Q earnings report. ( I am discounting the IPhone 5 and IPad mini announcements as a basis for the rise as even my dog knew they were coming). Then in one of the most dishartening spirit crushing and unfathomable moves, it drops 200 points in eight agonizing weeks. Takeaway: APPL is controlled by a master puppeteer that can make the stock do whatever it wants, JUST BECAUSE THEY CAN. Assisting in this charade is the company itself that gives inscrutable guidance figures. Any other company would have its hand held to the fire. The dangerous part in trading options is that the stock does not behave in a rational manner. We cannot use any paradigm to forecast price movement. Nothing seems to have worked this year: It has been over one month and we have not reclaimed the 200DMA; the at any 6 month point in the future APPL will trade higher axiom fell apart last October; etc. When you throw the metrics out what have you left??? Only the run up from 570 to 705 baffled me. The rest I can justify. Even the recent downturn. They have to deliver a spectacular Q1 to rally the troops. I still think EPS will be higher in Q2, but I will be taking a lot off the table if Q1 sucks.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 14:22:27 GMT -8
Takeaway: APPL is controlled by a master puppeteer that can make the stock do whatever it wants, JUST BECAUSE THEY CAN. Assisting in this charade is the company itself that gives inscrutable guidance figures. Any other company would have its hand held to the fire. Ok, You have been elevated to captain in the tin foil hat club. My new hero. Btw, Lovey is an Admiral, so don't let the new rank go to your head. ;D
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 14:28:02 GMT -8
What the heck happened in AH? We're down 3.5.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 14:31:30 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Dec 4, 2012 14:35:00 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 14:42:16 GMT -8
What's actually good is that all 3 of those bozos agreed with the bearish stance. That's usually the sign of a bottom. However, put activity says we might have some more down. There's an article to the right of the Google chart for AAPL. And I can't help but think of Avi Gilbert with his "if it doesn't get past 595, then look for a trip back to 500" story last week. Maybe we're at that point.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 14:45:34 GMT -8
This drop is Cramer-esque, and I can't attribute it to the goofs on Fast Money. We're down 5 in AH. Something happen at Foxconn?
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 4, 2012 14:47:14 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 15:00:40 GMT -8
The AH drop was CNBC bringing to people's attention the Milonovich comments posted here earlier and the Mary Meeker comments that Android is out pacing AAPL six-fold....then as the cherry on the cake they commented on the lousy chart and voila - down 5 in AH like a vacuum!
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Post by rosie on Dec 4, 2012 15:22:39 GMT -8
and when was the last time any of us heard "good news" on the news??? pffft. Distorted realities = ratings.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 4, 2012 15:27:18 GMT -8
You didn't just post a CNBC article discussing Guy Adami's take on Apple, did you? You didn't do that, right?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 4, 2012 15:27:41 GMT -8
and when was the last time any of us heard "good news" on the news??? pffft. Distorted realities = ratings. If it bears, it airs.
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