4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 5, 2012 22:57:56 GMT -8
Here is the thing, a company is suppose to be valued on how long it would take to earn its market cap. ... someone please tell me what is wrong with my thinking. You're thinking that life is fair, and that the market is always rational. That things should make sense. It's not, and it doesn't, at least not always. Bad things happen, even to good company's stock. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. You're swinging happily on swing, maybe even expecting the thrill of the next controlled dip and rise. And then the 8 million pound gorilla walks onto the playset, rips the whole swingset out of the ground, and flings it down the hill. Just because it can. I was expecting AAPL to have continued P/E compression even with it's continued great earnings growth. But it's not just a megacap now, but the megacap. About the only positive from the bull side of all of this is that you can still make a ton of money on AAPL if you manage to make it through. Personally, I'd look at 100% returns for ATM spreads with a variety of expirations a ways out. A friend wrote me this morning saying he bought a 475-500 BCS that would give a max gain of 75% (probably a Jan '14). Or for those hunting for higher returns, a nice 200-300% return spread has a much lower strike range now. Oh how I wish I could go back and sellout at 700, 650, or even 600 to have plenty of cash now. But aside from rebalancing shares over into spreads, which increases risk, I'm tapped. I'm already borrowing more than I should, though am not leaning over the cliff and could sell shares if I really needed to. But overall, I'm holding my cards. Fundamentals should eventually matter. But it's a matter of which ones. Does cash, over a certain point and if not used for a huge buyback, really matter? Yes, AMZN and others get me thinking that all is unfair. OTOH, the way I see it, with the P/E compressed so much, it just means that there's not that much more P/E compression possible, and so unlike in years past, earnings growth will more directly affect AAPL's price. Good luck all, and may we all be profitable in the long term even if the EOs muck with things in the short term.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 5, 2012 23:00:28 GMT -8
Apple has never had AWESOME QUARTERS while AAPL was tanking. Not at this valuation.
Technicals and fundamentals will have their epic clash soon.
But for now, I'l keep my meager cash. Too much to process with this monster down day, feels like I'll have to go day by day for the time being.
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Post by macziggy on Dec 5, 2012 23:08:40 GMT -8
I was about to post photos of Ms. Hathaway ( short hair) from Les Mis to lure you out. Morning updates please....take me back to earlier days..... Good to see you Red. Unfortunately I am not trading AAPL since it hit 700 and unloaded at that time. After that started feeling odd and even mentioned in private to a buddy of us that there was something very wrong happening. AAPL started recovering and then gave way. As a matter of fact, was expecting that, it was way to clear. The only thing I can say at this time is to thread very carefully if trading. Will stay on the sidelines until this bad feeling goes away. Macros are not the reason AAPL is acting badly. It is something else... OK. So, if you are going to join us again, what would that "something else"...be. It's a fair question.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 23:08:50 GMT -8
Maybe we need a reverse stock split of 100-1.
With a share price of $55,000 per share, I'm guessing we would see a bit more stability in the stock.
/s
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 5, 2012 23:16:04 GMT -8
brazilnuts, as the guy who bestowed upon you the dubious appellation "talking chicken wing" on AFB1 it's great that you're back, but I'd warn you to account for the atmosphere here.
I'd also note that we at least aspire here (well, many of us anyway) to "back it up", whether the case/sentiment is bull, bear, or sideways for centuries.
It's great you sold at 700 and all, but, uh, this "I sold at the top, I have this bad feeling, I still have it, I can't tell you what it is" isn't constructive, I'll be perfectly honest with you. It also sounds a bit like Reydgeciderwine, and believe me, you DON'T wanna sound like that guy.
Here's MY tinfoil theory: Some technicals, some FUD (Digitimes, seriously, those guys rate lower than tabloids IMHO), those ever-reliable weak hands being shaken out (maybe the margin requirements deal play into this a bit), potentially a market correction or worse in the making if AAPL hits new uptrend retrace lows, the odds of which increase the further below, say, 490ish AAPL goes. Tech weakness spooks traders which can have a snowball effect.
We're teetering on those psychological levels again. 13k, 3k (which the Nas recently lost in large part thanks to AAPL), 1.4k. Keep your eyes open, traders. And yes, I got slammed today, big time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 5, 2012 23:21:20 GMT -8
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Post by macziggy on Dec 6, 2012 0:11:58 GMT -8
I was about to post photos of Ms. Hathaway ( short hair) from Les Mis to lure you out. Morning updates please....take me back to earlier days..... Good to see you Red. Unfortunately I am not trading AAPL since it hit 700 and unloaded at that time. After that started feeling odd and even mentioned in private to a buddy of us that there was something very wrong happening. AAPL started recovering and then gave way. As a matter of fact, was expecting that, it was way to clear. The only thing I can say at this time is to thread very carefully if trading. Will stay on the sidelines until this bad feeling goes away. Macros are not the reason AAPL is acting badly. It is something else... Still waiting for an answer!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2012 0:16:00 GMT -8
It's late, MZ! Give it time!
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Post by macziggy on Dec 6, 2012 1:25:32 GMT -8
It's late, MZ! Give it time! Yes...thanks!
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