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Post by Luckychoices on May 1, 2018 13:01:35 GMT -8
Apologies for the snark guys, little sleep last night and busy day on set. But it felt sooooo good to see the naysayers be wrong once again. I just hope that mountain of puts below gets roasted. Hey, no need to apologize, mrentropy. Most long term members of the board speak snark fluently.
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Post by incorrigible on May 1, 2018 13:01:58 GMT -8
What's with the lame music on the CC? Ugg.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on May 1, 2018 13:26:14 GMT -8
Congrats to Mav, who got the first 4 digits of the revenue number exactly.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on May 1, 2018 13:26:29 GMT -8
Most things sound good. iPhone ASP, while up YOY, is down from last quarter, now $728 from $796. That gives a little color on the iPhone mix, other than the fantastic news that the X was the top seller every week of the march quarter.
Wow, lots of info from Luca. I'm going to have to listen to the call again after I download it from iTunes later today.
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Post by mrentropy on May 1, 2018 13:27:58 GMT -8
I have the X - so does my whole family - it’s the best phone they ever made. Congrats to the longs! My family as well. It felt awkward for the first day, but now feels like the most natural interaction method. The button feels weird on my iPad in contrast.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on May 1, 2018 13:31:55 GMT -8
Would have liked a little bigger pop for the dividend, but we have yet to see what effect the possible cheaper stock buybacks may have on the stock price.
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Post by zzmac on May 1, 2018 13:41:13 GMT -8
Cheers to the longs!
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Post by gtrplyr on May 1, 2018 13:51:42 GMT -8
Good call so far ... I like what I'm hearing.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on May 1, 2018 13:51:59 GMT -8
CNN/Money: "Apple announces slow iPhone sales, but $100 billion for investors"
No link for such an idiotic headline...unFREAKINGbelievable!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on May 1, 2018 13:53:09 GMT -8
5,068,493,xxx diluted shares as of 3-31-18, which puts the $1T level at a share price of 197.30.
With $10.36 EPS over the past year (not adjusted for shrinking shares), that would take a P/E of 19.04.
If AAPL maintains it's P/E range of 16-20, that is a stock price range of ~$165 and $207
Last Q the high of $183.50 when trailing 12M EPS was 9.73, the high P/E was 18.85. The low P/E was just below 16 when the share price was under $155
Last Q, there were 5,157,787,xxx diluted shares, 6 months ago there were 5,183,585,xxx diluted shares, and 18 months ago (end of FY 2016) there were 5,393,333,xxx.
Luca said they bough back 100M (or more?) last Q on the open market, but that must have been partially offset by created shares (compensation, in various ways). The total numbers went down ~89M last quarter.
A reduction of 324,840,xxx shares over the past 18 months, or 6.0%.
Just some stats to refer to in the future.
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Post by nwjade on May 1, 2018 13:53:54 GMT -8
Would have liked a little bigger pop for the dividend, but we have yet to see what effect the possible cheaper stock buybacks may have on the stock price. With the repatriation and currently having only a 25.26% payout ratio according to Yahoo Finance I thought they'd do more on the dividend... Maybe 25%? However 16% is a solid increase. I'm sure a lot of variables were involved in making the decision. Would love to know the inside planning regarding if they may be thinking of doing some M&A to increase earnings. Great earnings report, glad we can all relax a little now!
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Post by dreamRaj on May 1, 2018 13:57:55 GMT -8
This ER scenario is very similar to last time. I hope this holds tomorrow. If you remember, last quarter it faded quickly the next day followed by that crazy free fall along with the broader markets.
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Post by carbonate24 on May 1, 2018 14:11:02 GMT -8
Dear wall st. Eff off and die in a fire. Again. Great post. couldn’t have said it better myself.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 1, 2018 14:23:24 GMT -8
sweet, I think I would've actually won PED's earnings smackdown for revenue
$61.128B guess vs. $61.137 actual
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Post by mrentropy on May 1, 2018 14:31:52 GMT -8
Headline on CNBC:
Apple cash horde “plunges” to $267.2 billion.
Complete with frowny face Tim.
Actual headline someone got paid to write.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on May 1, 2018 14:32:03 GMT -8
There are a lot of people, had they any shame or integrity, would be eating great piles of crow tonight.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on May 1, 2018 14:34:17 GMT -8
There are a lot of people, had they any shame or integrity, would be eating great piles of crow tonight. I have a different kind of pile for them to eat...
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Post by osx10 on May 1, 2018 16:12:41 GMT -8
Maybe we need to start a GoFundme for them...
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 1, 2018 16:35:08 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on May 1, 2018 17:31:12 GMT -8
From earlier this Spring - Wisdom from Andy Zaky -- Was really surprised to see him return to *leading* investors about Apple seeing as how it didn't work out well for him the first time
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on May 1, 2018 20:23:59 GMT -8
Would have liked a little bigger pop for the dividend, but we have yet to see what effect the possible cheaper stock buybacks may have on the stock price. With the repatriation and currently having only a 25.26% payout ratio according to Yahoo Finance I thought they'd do more on the dividend... Maybe 25%? However 16% is a solid increase. I'm sure a lot of variables were involved in making the decision. I'm hoping that 16% is an annual increase, the lower number being so such yearly increases are sustainable. God knows Apple seems to be throwing the money around on everything else. Tim and all the execs sure pay themselves more than 15% increases. Sometimes I think they really forget whose company Apple is. I mean all this blabber about how Apple is going to spend their new tax windfall, but shareholders are the last mentioned. sweet, I think I would've actually won PED's earnings smackdown for revenue $61.128B guess vs. $61.137 actual Nice job Mav.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
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Post by 4aapl on May 1, 2018 21:39:30 GMT -8
I'm hoping that 16% is an annual increase, the lower number being so such yearly increases are sustainable. Even a mere 16% increase adds up quickly. Really quickly. In 12 years (for some that's really quickly), that would be nearly a 5 fold increase (600% total). I pulled that number out of a hat thinking about one of the former employees I had, 12 years ago. If I had stayed and received pay increases of 16% a year, my then sub-100k salary would now be around $500k. Bring it! I'd choose to work again for them for a lot less. For the dividend, if they manage 16% increases for 5 years, that would be a total 110% increase. The slight problem is that if the stock keeps increasing at that rate or higher, the dividend rate stays at the current 1.4-1.5%. Paltry in comparison to many, but it's paying the bills. This boost will be nice, though as far as tax management I'd much rather a share price increase than a dividend increase. Over the next 10 years the stock (and market) is likely to have at least a few bad years mixed in with the good, but if Apple can continue boosting the dividend at 10% or more, along with a couple ~15% years, it will really start adding up and be nice to have that consistency. Kinda like the Services revenue increasing 31% YOY. It's nice to have some of that consistent revenue and profits stacking up. For anyone interested in the earnings replay podcast, it's available. You only have 2 weeks to grab it, and it looks like I missed last quarter's. It's available here: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/apple-quarterly-earnings-call/id74942331?mt=2
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