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Post by moltenfire on Dec 7, 2012 9:40:39 GMT -8
If everyone listens to Nick, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophesy that AAPL will never hit a 13.5+ PE again.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 7, 2012 9:42:03 GMT -8
On a lighter note, iPads continue to be in DEMAND
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Post by darrenhd on Dec 7, 2012 9:42:20 GMT -8
If everyone listens to Nick, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophesy that AAPL will never hit a 13.5+ PE again. It would be a great time for Apple to start buying back some shares...
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 9:42:27 GMT -8
IMHO, this stock will not be allowed by WS to move north of 600 until after earnings and if they disappoint for any reason and we know WS will find one, good luck with that. The fundamentals are good, but the days of the shock and awe EPS releases are over. I hope I am wrong, but I want out of this stock so bad I can taste it. I am so so sick of the constant focus by the media and on TA as it relates to this stock. FA should rule the roost. Wall Street has probably always been and continues to be a casino. I am either going to go down in a ball of flames or this stock has one more save in it to allow me to get somewhere close to where I was back on Sept 21. In either case, at that time I will bid you all a fond farewell as I look forward to a much less Apple-centric focused life. Just my thoughts. Rant over. See you on the other side of the fiscal cliff. I am with you. I want a much less Aapl-centric focused life as well.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 7, 2012 9:46:21 GMT -8
Okay, this volatility is crazy, but I am thinking of using it somehow to my advantage. Here are two things I've been thinking of recently:
1. Since I plan on selling old shares and immediately buying them back sometime between now and 31-Dec, I was thinking perhaps instead of buying back FIRST and then selling, hopefully at prices that are more advantageous to me. For example, I can buy now at 530.5 and then sell my much appreciated shares (by specific lot identification of course) later at a higher price. With this kind of volatility, it is likely that we will see a higher price sometime between now and 31-Dec, correct?
2. And almost heresy, some of my BCS spreads have the short side so low that I am considering buying them now and going bare long calls at the low strike of my spread. I know, of course, that is a VERY dangerous move in general.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 9:46:24 GMT -8
IMHO, this stock will not be allowed by WS to move north of 600 until after earnings and if they disappoint for any reason and we know WS will find one, good luck with that. The fundamentals are good, but the days of the shock and awe EPS releases are over. I hope I am wrong, but I want out of this stock so bad I can taste it. I am so so sick of the constant focus by the media and on TA as it relates to this stock. FA should rule the roost. Wall Street has probably always been and continues to be a casino. I am either going to go down in a ball of flames or this stock has one more save in it to allow me to get somewhere close to where I was back on Sept 21. In either case, at that time I will bid you all a fond farewell as I look forward to a much less Apple-centric focused life. Just my thoughts. Rant over. See you on the other side of the fiscal cliff.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 9:48:36 GMT -8
In my opinion and having seen this type of action on stocks in my years....lots of tax selling and LOTS of hedge fund redemptions...and they are selling AAPL. Unfortunately, it triggers tech levels and then it all just feeds on itself but I know several people with money in hedge funds and every single one is redeeming. Of course it begs the question - they'll come back in right?..even if it's another hedge fund. The answer is "probably" but I think they will wait for Washington to make SOME/ANY decision to eliminate some uncertainty. That's my opinion for what it's worth...anecdotal and having traveled down this road in other instances in the past. +100. One thing for sure, we are not headed far north till after the FC is sorted. It's not the only reason for the fall but its a key closure item to get us to move up
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 9:49:02 GMT -8
Im grasping at straws, but 530 was the May closing support and I believe it only closed once below that price on Nov 16. So maybe we are near a floor? Past patterns and performance from May are irrelevant. Do you actually think that all the people who buy or sell the stock now, let whatever happened in May enter into their decision making process at all? Or enough to matter? Yes, this is grasping at straws. I dunno. Just bounced up off precisely 530.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 9:49:10 GMT -8
... I am either going to go down in a ball of flames or this stock has one more save in it to allow me to get somewhere close to where I was back on Sept 21. In either case, at that time I will bid you all a fond farewell as I look forward to a much less Apple-centric focused life. ... I am with you. I want a much less Aapl-centric focused life as well. It would GREAT for TC to know these sentiments. Less Apple can not be good for Apple. FWIW, hopefully 530 defended, there will be a bounce
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 9:50:04 GMT -8
If everyone listens to Nick, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophesy that AAPL will never hit a 13.5+ PE again. That is not what it says.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 7, 2012 9:51:40 GMT -8
This is really getting to me too. The temptation to sell common and buy in the money calls is overwhelming. I am even considering taking a home equity loan to buy more shares. This combination of technicals and "fiscal cliff" FUD has created the best buying opportunity since fall of 2008. Time to suck it up and make the move.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 7, 2012 9:51:58 GMT -8
If everyone listens to Nick, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophesy that AAPL will never hit a 13.5+ PE again. It would be a great time for Apple to start buying back some shares... They may be buying back right now opportunistically. No way for us to know, they aren't going to announce each trade as it happens ;D
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Post by moltenfire on Dec 7, 2012 9:52:03 GMT -8
If everyone listens to Nick, it'll be a self-fulfilling prophesy that AAPL will never hit a 13.5+ PE again. That is not what it says. It says "Limit your purchases in Apple when it is under a 13.5 PE ratio. Never buy Apple when it is over a 14 PE ratio. Have the patience to wait for a pull back." So if everyone (or a substantial portion of AAPL buyers) listens to Nick, there'll be no buyers above 13.5 PE.
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 9:52:25 GMT -8
Past patterns and performance from May are irrelevant. Do you actually think that all the people who buy or sell the stock now, let whatever happened in May enter into their decision making process at all? Or enough to matter? Yes, this is grasping at straws. I dunno. Just bounced up off precisely 530. Furthermore, 530 is precisely a 12.0 trailing PE. Maybe some value funds trigger on that PE OR shorts cover at that PE
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Post by erictheoracle on Dec 7, 2012 9:54:00 GMT -8
Bloomberg is about to have a guy on who believes Apple is heading down to a three hundred handle.
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Post by macwire on Dec 7, 2012 9:56:18 GMT -8
Ugh. Game over.
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Post by moltenfire on Dec 7, 2012 9:58:16 GMT -8
"Inst. own 67%" on Google Finance appears to be lower than before.
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 10:00:07 GMT -8
Bloomberg is about to have a guy on who believes Apple is heading down to a three hundred handle. A PE of less than 9? There should be some responsibility here Thank God few watch Bloomberg. But they will put it on video and show it alll weekend...
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 7, 2012 10:00:33 GMT -8
People - stop over reacting - stop the drama - we are all hurting but it will somehow workout - don't throw in the towel yet!
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 10:01:22 GMT -8
It says "Limit your purchases in Apple when it is under a 13.5 PE ratio. Never buy Apple when it is over a 14 PE ratio. Have the patience to wait for a pull back." So if everyone (or a substantial portion of AAPL buyers) listens to Nick, there'll be no buyers above 13.5 PE. I get what you are saying. That is Nick trying to guide people to the obvious, (buy low). But here is the thing, only a handful of people look to Nick to make buying decisions. I do not know when, but AAPL will trade above a 13.5 p/e again.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 10:02:36 GMT -8
It would be a great time for Apple to start buying back some shares... They may be buying back right now opportunistically. No way for us to know, they aren't going to announce each trade as it happens ;D Trust me - If AAPL were buying in size WS would know. Also, AAPL would probably not mind people to know. CNBC said 50 Billion off it market cap this week. shocking TC/PO better be talking the board on a huge buyback or other measures to protect shareholders.
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 10:03:53 GMT -8
It says "Limit your purchases in Apple when it is under a 13.5 PE ratio. Never buy Apple when it is over a 14 PE ratio. Have the patience to wait for a pull back." So if everyone (or a substantial portion of AAPL buyers) listens to Nick, there'll be no buyers above 13.5 PE. I get what you are saying. That is Nick trying to guide people to the obvious, (buy low). But here is the thing, only a handful of people look to Nick to make buying decisions. I do not know when, but AAPL will trade above a 13.5 p/e again. Nick has changed his position 100% from two months ago. If you listened to him over the past two months you would be loosing BIG. Back then he was telling all to buy Jan14 700-800 spreads.
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Post by erictheoracle on Dec 7, 2012 10:05:42 GMT -8
Bloomberg is about to have a guy on who believes Apple is heading down to a three hundred handle. A PE of less than 9? There should be some responsibility here Thank God few watch Bloomberg. But they will put it on video and show it alll weekend... With few exceptions, pros watch Bloomberg. However, the segment hasn't aired yet and the tease made it sound like it was coming on right away.
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Post by Rupert on Dec 7, 2012 10:08:16 GMT -8
If AAPL breaks the SMA 8/21 I'm thinking of putting on a bearish put spread or naked put. IPad or anyone else any thoughts or possible ranges and duration?
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Post by rob_london on Dec 7, 2012 10:09:57 GMT -8
A PE of less than 9? There should be some responsibility here Thank God few watch Bloomberg. But they will put it on video and show it alll weekend... With few exceptions, pros watch Bloomberg. However, the segment hasn't aired yet and the tease made it sound like it was coming on right away. It'll probably be Edward Zabitsky, who has a price target of $270...
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Post by Zeke on Dec 7, 2012 10:10:45 GMT -8
This article is inarguably true. It's pure math and reality based on how the large funds, who are the principle Apple investors at this point, operate. And it contains a remedy: Apple could “open up” another investor market. Retail investors like us could buy the stock. Retail investors tend to be longer-term investors, buying and holding a stock, particularly one with which they can identify. But retail investors view Apple’s stock as “expensive” because it carries now a $600+ price tag. Retail investors often get hung up with “expensive” because of the price level, not thinking about valuation. Apple is one of the least expensive stocks on the market in terms of valuation, trading at a discount to the overall market. Consider a stock that costs $600 and delivers $50 earnings per share is no different than owning 10 shares of a $60 stock delivering $5 earnings per share. If this is explained to an experienced retail investor, the response often still is “yes, of course, $600 is too much to pay for a share of stock.” Apple needs to split its stock to bring in retail investors, open up the market for another set of investors to hold the stock and let their biggest fans enjoy the company growth.
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 10:17:55 GMT -8
This article is inarguably true. It's pure math and reality based on how the large funds, who are the principle Apple investors at this point, operate. And it contains a remedy: Apple could “open up” another investor market. Retail investors like us could buy the stock. Retail investors tend to be longer-term investors, buying and holding a stock, particularly one with which they can identify. But retail investors view Apple’s stock as “expensive” because it carries now a $600+ price tag. Retail investors often get hung up with “expensive” because of the price level, not thinking about valuation. Apple is one of the least expensive stocks on the market in terms of valuation, trading at a discount to the overall market. Consider a stock that costs $600 and delivers $50 earnings per share is no different than owning 10 shares of a $60 stock delivering $5 earnings per share. If this is explained to an experienced retail investor, the response often still is “yes, of course, $600 is too much to pay for a share of stock.” Apple needs to split its stock to bring in retail investors, open up the market for another set of investors to hold the stock and let their biggest fans enjoy the company growth. A while back they said the reason they were reluctant to split it is that the institutions who own 70% of the stock find it less expensive to trade a large priced stock.
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Post by lance on Dec 7, 2012 10:18:19 GMT -8
AAPL 13% away from 200day MA which is considered the typical worst case scenario level. Good luck getting to new highs that is 32% away haha. I guess Wall street thinks they will miss earnings earnings or even there own guidance because this can't be just tax reasons. Other stocks are up big for the year they aren't going straight down 30%. Look at LULU, Costco, Walmart, UA etc.
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Post by bernard on Dec 7, 2012 10:24:27 GMT -8
AAPL 13% away from 200day MA which is considered the typical worst case scenario level. Good luck getting to new highs that is 32% away haha. I guess Wall street thinks they will miss earnings earnings or even there own guidance because this can't be just tax reasons. Other stocks are up big for the year they aren't going straight down 30%. Look at LULU, Costco, Walmart, UA etc. Lance why do you consistently interject haha into all your comments? It depreciates everything you say. Also are you gloating over those who lost money??? If so, not nice.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 7, 2012 10:26:59 GMT -8
After watching Tim Cook last night, I think the biggest thing that bothered me was the tactical error of giving NBC that access to begin with.
SJ was famous for only giving access to perceived Apple friends - our friend Walt...
NBC is the lowest rated network, with a side business channel CNBC determined to prevent their success (way beyond Melissa Lee) it may be a Comcast Universal thing.
Why not do 60 Minutes (CBS) or 20/20 (ABC) instead?
CNBC.com headline writers go out of their way to slant the headlines -- click bait whores no better than SA...
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