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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 7, 2012 19:32:06 GMT -8
I wasn't referring to Zaky.
Pruzan, it was Lloyd Bridges in the ' picked a bad week...' Routine. Leslie Nielson was. ' and don't call me Shirley'
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 19:40:43 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Dec 7, 2012 19:44:16 GMT -8
I wasn't referring to Zaky. Pruzan, it was Lloyd Bridges in the ' picked a bad week...' Routine. Leslie Nielson was. ' and don't call me Shirley' Pruzan? Well, I deserved that, given my misattributing a quote. I will now burn my MFA from UCLA.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 20:08:52 GMT -8
I subscribed to Andy Zaky until a month ago. I don't want to speak badly about the experience, but for me it was a huge warning about how much trust to put in any "analyst." For me, that means developing my own center of gravity when it comes to this stock or any stock for that matter. I have come to revere iPad's buy spread way-out philosophy....just for safety. I stopped following many of his suggestions during the parabolic run last Spring when he kept shorting AAPL and insisting that he was right and everyone else would be wrong. So, if you followed him then, you really missed the whole run and probably lost a lot of money then. I did value tremendously his chart analysis and I learned much from his perspective. That was really the only reason I still stayed as a subscriber. He (and those following him on Bullish CRoss) were heavily invested in January 2013 call spreads, specifically, the 600/650 and the 655/705 spreads. The 600/650 was bought for about $17 last Spring....that spread is now going for $4.50--I sold all but 3 of mine at 680, thank God!! Andy last recommended the 655/705 in August @ $20. AAPL was around 645 at the time. That spread is now worth $1.05. (I sold all of those at 680 as well). I am illustrating this not to be mean to Andy (he's a really likable guy), just to illustrate the high stakes that were involved at Bullish Cross. When everyone was buying these spreads last April, everything about Apple seemed secure. These spreads seemed absolutely OK. No one, me included, ever expected a $200 drop just like that and for the spreads to be all but washed out. I do feel enormous sadness for anyone holding those spreads. AAPL may still shoot up before the January expiration, but, it seems the odds are not in favor of that. Here's what I want from Apple....not a special dividend, but a different Christmas present....a surprise 4-1 split next week. I think Scott Redler is right....it is one way Apple can protect the stock from the hedge fund manipulators by making the stock more accessible to retail investors who won't be selling it every day and who think that $500 is too much to pay for 1 share of AAPL (even though we all know it is undervalued). I feel it's time for AAPL to go this route. Or, at least, initiate a big buyback. They just have to support the stock price more. Thanks and good post. I didn't take it as being hard or specific to Andy. Basically I don't believe any analyst or service guarantees to be right all the time (nor do I expect them to). He has been right a lot in the past. The issue is in situations such as now where a number of first are matched or equaled, when they are wrong they are really wrong. That's probably the issue with Andy and maybe he got ahead himself and threw a bit of caution to the wind by concentrating solely on FA when TA was screaming look over here. Truly I don't know all the details as I don't subscribe. It's sounds like perhaps you became a little skeptical based on you selling at least some. The lesson here is if all we hear is confidence from someone without any honest evaluation of the other side, perhaps it's time for us to put our skeptic hat on if anything for self preservation. Believe me I love Apple and and 100% sure we will recover from this and reach a new ATH (read its no where near from being over). I wish I knew when the ATH will be as most of us would but odds are based on earnings it should be in the Apr, May timeframe or earlier. However I don't owe Apple loyalty and blind loyalty to a stock based on past performance is short-sighted and a guarantee you will be let down. Given the Tech sector, the odds are one day Apple will drop out of favor (as every tech stock has). So far there is no indicator that is currently the case. I have my own parameters to look out for that time and believe me, pure greed nor loyalty has nothing to do with my decision to move on but empirical evidence does.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 7, 2012 20:09:06 GMT -8
I wasn't referring to Zaky. Pruzan, it was Lloyd Bridges in the ' picked a bad week...' Routine. Leslie Nielson was. ' and don't call me Shirley' Pruzan? Well, I deserved that, given my misattributing a quote. I will now burn my MFA from UCLA. Apologies, friend Prazan. Typing on an iPhone is an imperfect science.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 20:18:20 GMT -8
This is good. One less batch of patents to worry about in future. Also will be another patent that Samsung will need to licence potentially.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 20:22:54 GMT -8
Google will give it to them
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 7, 2012 20:27:58 GMT -8
Besides the occasional CNBC guest I do not know a single person who went from an I phone to an Android .. so Apple has a built in customer base of more then 100 million people . So you add that to 128 dollars per share in cash and the risk reward becomes even more appealing .. Very good points.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 20:35:42 GMT -8
Over the last 5 years AAPL has hit a P/E ratio of 11.x several times.
The current P/E ratio isn't anything abnormal, especially after a couple of average quarters and all the end of year fiscal/tax/dividends rubbish.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 20:37:52 GMT -8
Google will give it to them But they can't do that without apples agreement if they co-own it. Besides, google might be getting fed up by now with Samsung making all the money out of android.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 20:46:16 GMT -8
Google will give it to them But they can't do that without apples agreement if they co-own it. Besides, google might be getting fed up by now with Samsung making all the money out of android. The goal has always been to fight Apple. It's not like they would ever charge for their OS, they do not do it for regular computers.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 20:48:41 GMT -8
Over the last 5 years AAPL has hit a P/E ratio of 11.x several times. The current P/E ratio isn't anything abnormal, especially after a couple of average quarters and all the end of year fiscal/tax/dividends rubbish. But it does not stay there long usually. The market is rolling right along, AAPL is broken.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 20:53:57 GMT -8
AAPL _is_ technically broken, but it depends on the timeframe and the moment. Unquestionably we're at a BIG inflection point. Hopefully whoever's interested can have a good discussion about it here and there over the next few days. Btw, still got that log (?) chart trendline request a few years back of 2009 in Chart Talk MB
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 20:57:39 GMT -8
Is there anything positive in the charts? Oversold?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 21:04:25 GMT -8
Don't take this the wrong way, alice - there's no harm in looking for yourself, puzzling it out, and making tons of mistakes. You can really learn and contribute to the discussion that way.
That's what I've tried to do. Just ask iPad about my trying to pick up technicals (which resembles doing a backwards wheelie on a souped-up motorbike over 10 buses with no motorcycle license and never graduating past training wheels).
But since iPad isn't here and I'm AFB2 class clown (no shame in being wrong in my opinions)...I don't see much optimism in the charts. Oversold on the Williams %R on the daily/weekly (a "little"), but not on the RSI. And if there's selling pressure, oversold readings can continue to "not matter" for a while.
I'm hoping we'll be able to figure out a thing or two in Chart Talk over the weekend. There's a lot of potential formations/signals popping up after today.
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 21:11:23 GMT -8
Read too many negatives on aapl. Want to hear some positives.
Not sure I can handle TA.
What are some positives that will tun aapl up?
1. Fiscal cliff resolution 2. End of tax selling 3. Santa rally 4. ER
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 21:13:18 GMT -8
But they can't do that without apples agreement if they co-own it. Besides, google might be getting fed up by now with Samsung making all the money out of android. The goal has always been to fight Apple. It's not like they would ever charge for their OS, they do not do it for regular computers. Do you think? I'm not sure exactly what googles goal was with android - I use to think it was a preemptive strike to counter Microsoft in smartphones (so it wouldn't get shut out of mobile search/maps). I'm sure if Larry & Sergey could do it all over again they would rather have partnered deeply with apple than being on there present course of eventually being kicked off iOS for good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 21:13:44 GMT -8
Read too many negatives on aapl. Want to hear some positives. Not sure I can handle TA. If I can, I think ANYONE can. Ask iPad. I was chronically allergic to/ignorant of technicals for over a decade. Now, I've been corrupted by that sick influence thanks for nothing iPad picked up a potentially useful thing or two as another way of looking at things, in addition to the fundamentals. I'm sure if Larry & Sergey could do it all over again they would rather have partnered deeply with apple than being on there present course of eventually being kicked off iOS for good. Sure. That's if Android eventually fails.
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 21:31:41 GMT -8
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Post by macziggy on Dec 8, 2012 0:04:00 GMT -8
Monday will tell a lot about the direction of this stock. Today could have been Weekly OpEX directed. So, the real tell will be on Monday. Have to wait and see. Though as Mav said, it's pretty much a broken stock from a technical perspective. Yes, there are all these other things going on with it, like year-end selling, capital gains, mutual funds redemptions, but there is also a lot of uncertainty about what's happening with the company. It is in a "show me" state. And, there is absolutely nothing any of us can do to alleviate that. Just wait and try to keep some cash on the sidelines to use if it does go down. We have to try to take the emotion (and horror) out of it and just ultimately rely on what we know about the company. The products are amazing. And everyone wants one or two or three.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 8, 2012 2:07:21 GMT -8
What does this even mean? Are you serious? On Pearl Harbor Day no less?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 8, 2012 2:31:06 GMT -8
Anyway, an extremely interesting article: Android Takes Off in China, But Google Has Little to Show for ItBut, but...market share! OK, show of hands; how many think Google's "stand" was about human rights, vs the fact that they needed total control of search to suck out Chinese citizens' personal data so they can use it to target advertising? You can't spy on your citizens with our search engine! That's our business model! Well well well, what do we have here? Removing Google Maps actually helped Apple's market share in its largest addressable market? I guess Brian Williams' producers missed that part of the "maps debacle." It also reveals that Apple has a lot more to negotiate in China than just price. Wait, I'm confused. How can one "pirate" an "open" OS or its apps? Sounds more like a walled garden to me. Cab you F'n believe it? Google whining about piracy! Ha ha, very subtle. usually we think of "viral" as a good thing. But somehow I'm feeling more Andromeda Strain and less Gangnam Style from Horace's use of the word here. I prefer less subtlety than Horace: Poetic F'n justice, bitches!
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 8, 2012 2:49:52 GMT -8
Read too many negatives on aapl. Want to hear some positives. Not sure I can handle TA. What are some positives that will tun aapl up? 1. Fiscal cliff resolution 2. End of tax selling 3. Santa rally 4. ER A few thoughts: 1. The FC fears should be reflected in the SPY and VIX which it is not. ~60% of AAPL profits from outside US. Note VIX ~16 and VXAPL ~41. 2. It is not the selling to capture the lower taxes that is the problem. It is that they might not re-buy immediately. And if they do they have to reserve 15% less for cap gains. Also, why have no other highly appreciated stock been it so bad think MA and V. Unfortunately, AAPL as a stock has lost credibility and they hardly care. True SHOW ME story to break out of this funk.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 8, 2012 3:30:24 GMT -8
Again - I know from acquaintances and from the business community that this is tax selling as well as hedge fund redemptions. The issue becomes that it pulls us to technical levels that mean something to EW followers....hence the stock does not become one that trades on fundamentals but on technicals. It's not rational - math is rational - so people turn to technicals. Just don't forget one thing that Lovey has drilled into me and it is this whole IF/WHEN scenario. NOTHING IS A GIVEN. We seem to think that technical analysis or fundamental analysis can predict the future - it cannot. We are trying to make a rational assumption out of irrational actions. We get frustrated - confused and fearful. So here goes: FACT: tax selling going on FACT: rates going up FACT: the stock will continue to be volatile in the near future ASSUMPTION: Fib levels might be breached ASSUMPTION: Fib levels might not be breached FACT: it will continue to be a roller coaster till year end or until a government agreement is reached FACT: AAPL is still and will continue to be an excellent company
Ladies and gentlemen, go buy some TUMS, place your bets accordingly....
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 8, 2012 3:52:04 GMT -8
It really is disheartening to see so many loyal AAPL fans on verge of giving up.
What investors can do:
Prepare for the flush and make sure you can hold thru and add.
Ideas:
- derisking other stocks/bonds in case a market event causes a swift drop in market. If SP500 drops 5%, I doubt AAPL does not cratter too. - sell Jan covered calls against long stock to fund puts/put spreads. (covers the cliff period and near to earnings) - short some indices say spy. I know AAPL down nearly 10% this week and SPY is flat. But if you believe in the fundementals, then SPY is even a better hedge. - if you are too long already, do not add until uptrend confirmed.
What Company can do:
If one is inclined to email management consider email TC and PO with a cc to IR. I wonder aloud if it makes sense if we could get a few communities to write together e.g. this board, Braeburn, etc. The HNW Investor/Evangelist community deserves a voice.
Create a floor with Stock Buyback (even Buffet has done so)
Up to 100B in dry powder. Might not need to actually buy much. I would for sure feel less stressed.
However, once December numbers start rolling in and they get visiblity to the Q's earnings then Rule 10b5-1 regarding blackout periods might kick in to prohibit buying.
IMO Management has at most 2 weeks to make their voices count until earnings. Once the Quarter closes, mgmt can really say much unless they pre-announce. And that rarely happens...
Really sorry for the long post and poor grammar/spelling
Would love to hear ideas on things we might have try to control...
More tomorrow.
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2012 5:59:47 GMT -8
I believe weekly chart support is 480. I doubt we break that but I'm dying death by paper cuts.
Pass the hard liquor. Cheers
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Post by jcaron on Dec 8, 2012 6:30:21 GMT -8
an interesting level 480. Last spring when apple started its extreme ascent I had a buy order in at 480 that never triggered. Will I get it in the next few weeks? I don't know. I hope not but I will say, I plan to sell my common share that I have held since 2004 / 2005 if we lose 530 again. Indeed, my timing is bad but I was thinking it was bad when I considered selling at 650, 630, 600 :-(.
Am I giving up? Hell no! But I realize, the milk has been spilt and there's not much I can do about it now. I locked in some pretty heavy losses on options in the last 4-5 weeks, that is now water under the bridge. What matters is how I plan my recovery and what I take away as learning experience. I' have (as have many here) been through this too many times in the past not to feel even more stupid for not reacting sooner. I did do somewhat better but I, as many probably do, when the stock takes "reasonable" drop and think I missed my exit planning to hold for recovery, it drops more, I feel trapped and hold longer, it drops more, now Im really trapped and I hold until theta starts taking bites out of my value that are just too big to bear so I sell, haring Brazil Nuts old postings in my head "protect capital".
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Post by macwire on Dec 8, 2012 7:36:16 GMT -8
I pissed away my gains by trying to catch knives at technical "bottoms"
Catching a bottom is never a great trading strategy. Honor stops. If you hit a one year YTD goal go small rest of the year. There's always chances to ride the train if the fundamentals are strong.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 8, 2012 7:41:37 GMT -8
I'm interested in pushing for a stock buyback.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 8, 2012 8:25:32 GMT -8
I am only selling commons to generate better cash flow. We could hit 473 on Tuesday and close above 550 on Friday. Point being, I honestly don't think we stay down here for very long. I just don't. And that makes it difficult to justify selling commons unless you're trying to generate cash or doing so for tax purposes.
We're not going to trade at a P/E of 12 for the rest of time. We will rebound, and we'll probably do it quickly based on recent history. Good luck and keep your head on a swivel.
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