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Post by Rupert on Dec 8, 2012 9:35:59 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: At Some Point Apple Will Surprise Us To The UpsidePosted on December 8, 2012 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/BTW real nice picture of the Hong Kong Store. Nick has been posting some really great pictures recently.
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Post by roni on Dec 8, 2012 9:42:43 GMT -8
It really is disheartening to see so many loyal AAPL fans on verge of giving up. What investors can do: [long snip] Would love to hear ideas on things we might have try to control... More tomorrow. Giving up? I do not see that. The only thing we have control over is our investment decisions. The only things we can do to have control is to open positions and close positions.
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Post by sponge on Dec 8, 2012 10:17:09 GMT -8
I am only selling commons to generate better cash flow. We could hit 473 on Tuesday and close above 550 on Friday. Point being, I honestly don't think we stay down here for very long. I just don't. And that makes it difficult to justify selling commons unless you're trying to generate cash or doing so for tax purposes. We're not going to trade at a P/E of 12 for the rest of time. We will rebound, and we'll probably do it quickly based on recent history. Good luck and keep your head on a swivel. Excellent point. We quickly forget that we moved $90 in 8 days with no news. We can do so again and be at 620 in a flash and there won't be anyone predicting it.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 8, 2012 11:36:19 GMT -8
I am only selling commons to generate better cash flow. We could hit 473 on Tuesday and close above 550 on Friday. Point being, I honestly don't think we stay down here for very long. I just don't. And that makes it difficult to justify selling commons unless you're trying to generate cash or doing so for tax purposes. We're not going to trade at a P/E of 12 for the rest of time. We will rebound, and we'll probably do it quickly based on recent history. Good luck and keep your head on a swivel. Excellent point. We quickly forget that we moved $90 in 8 days with no news. We can do so again and be at 620 in a flash and there won't be anyone predicting it. Yes, I agree. Either these fudsters are right about AAPL peaking and we're starting our slow decline or they're just spreading FUD as they've always done and we could be back to 700 in January. I think its the latter!
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Post by rosie on Dec 8, 2012 11:52:30 GMT -8
Dear Tim message:
Hi Tim,
Kudos on the recent print and tv interviews.
It would be a good improvement to make individual books available as gift purchases. It's like that special song/app...sometimes a specific gift is more appropriate than a gift card. I just unwillingly purchased a few gift ebooks for various folks and had to do so on Amazon. Sigh.
Have a great holiday and a lot of us would be thrilled with a 4-1 stock split as an after Christmas gift.
Sent from my iPad 🎄⛄🎄
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Post by Zeke on Dec 8, 2012 12:57:23 GMT -8
Forbes: Why Is Apple Stock So Manipulated "Bottom Line In the stock market, the word “manipulation” helps us explain something that we can’t understand. It’s also another way to deflect blame off ourselves and to someone else – this is even though we can’t prove it. However, I will argue that every stock on the market is manipulated. If you can’t agree to this, then none of them are. It sounds very cliché to say, but “stocks go up and stocks go down.” Here’s another one, “if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.” And here’s my favorite,” if you can’t prove it, don’t say it.” www.forbes.com/sites/richardsaintvilus/2012/12/07/why-is-apple-stock-so-manipulated/The article is complete BS. The author can't seem to understand that what people are complaining about and calling manipulation is the fact that AAPL has been moving irrationally when compared to its record and its foreseeable future performance. Of course we complain when it takes a 5% dive, and are silent about manipulation when it goes up. A 5% increase is supported by every metric by which companies and investments are judged. The world has never seen a company with the size and sustained growth that Apple has exhibited, and yet institutional investors and others treat it like a startup that is all market share and no profits. My best guess about what is going on is that the massive profits gained this year in AAPL were sold off for tax purposes. These sales came in waves as various major investors became convinced that there will be no tax deal that avoids an increase in capital gains. If all of my AAPL were not in IRAs I would have been thinking along those lines myself. Also, if I had a lot of taxable money in AAPL and I became convinced no special dividend was forthcoming, but that XYZ company was offering all of next year's dividends in a special dividend before year end, then I'd be selling AAPL to buy XYZ. I can't really believe that the fund managers don't get hints about this kind of thing a little ahead of the rest of us. If any of that is true then it's likely that after 1/1/13 AAPL takes off again. Or maybe the whole market tanks with the new tax rates in place. And what happens to those shares of other companies that were bought to get a special dividend? Some of them won't be paying anything in 2013. Do those shares get dumped immediately? And where does a savvy investor put that money? What's the best buy on the market right now, if not AAPL? Do we need a split? Hell, yes! Ten to one would be great, but I'd settle for four to one. It not only makes shares of AAPL psychologically more affordable to retail investors, it does the same for options, and options are still 100 shares per contract (at least for a little while). And I think having a higher percentage of AAPL ownership in retail hands might put a damper on AAPL's volatility.
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Post by Zeke on Dec 8, 2012 13:23:58 GMT -8
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 8, 2012 13:25:55 GMT -8
Dear Tim message: Hi Tim, Kudos on the recent print and tv interviews. It would be a good improvement to make individual books available as gift purchases. It's like that special song/app...sometimes a specific gift is more appropriate than a gift card. I just unwillingly purchased a few gift ebooks for various folks and had to do so on Amazon. Sigh. Have a great holiday and a lot of us would be thrilled with a 4-1 stock split as an after Christmas gift. Sent from my iPad 🎄⛄🎄 One thing I really didnt like about the interview on NBC was them showing the Samsung commercials right in the middle of it.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 13:34:20 GMT -8
Schwarz, Nansen and Zaky have been mentioned a lot on here recently. All of these guys trade on fundamentals for the most part, which is fine when everything is working out. However, there will always be periods of irrationality or at least when the stock price moves against what seems sane and rational. Often this is due to external factors that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but are quite rational when viewed through the lens of an external force.
These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected. The problem is that their models do not cater for those external factors.
While we do see price manipulation on an intraday timeframe, there really is not a conspiracy or widespread manipulation on the larger scale. It's just outside forces overriding things for a while. Those forces could be a change in margin allowed, tax selling, uncertainties over the fiscal cliff etc.
Who says that AAPL has to have a p/e of X or Y? Why is this set in stone as so many seem to think? It really is only a rule of thumb, and there will always be times when there are exceptions.
If you want to point to large scale conspiracy, then look at the Federal Reserve and its QE efforts. They actually have helped AAPL massively over the last 3-4 years, far more so than any pullback has helped the shorts.
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Post by rickag on Dec 8, 2012 13:34:34 GMT -8
… Also, if I had a lot of taxable money in AAPL and I became convinced no special dividend was forthcoming, but that XYZ company was offering all of next year's dividends in a special dividend before year end, then I'd be selling AAPL to buy XYZ. I can't really believe that the fund managers don't get hints about this kind of thing a little ahead of the rest of us. If any of that is true then it's likely that after 1/1/13 AAPL takes off again. Or maybe the whole market tanks with the new tax rates in place. And what happens to those shares of other companies that were bought to get a special dividend? Some of them won't be paying anything in 2013. Do those shares get dumped immediately? And where does a savvy investor put that money? … I had not thought of this, but you're right. I wonder if there is a way to find out if this is indeed taking place. I would guess it would be revealed in the funds quarterly statements but that doesn't help at the moment. Many retail investors will be gladly taking their special dividend but if the stock price is driven down next year because there is no dividends they may be somewhat upset.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 8, 2012 14:12:47 GMT -8
Schwarz, Nansen and Zaky have been mentioned a lot on here recently. All of these guys trade on fundamentals for the most part, which is fine when everything is working out. However, there will always be periods of irrationality or at least when the stock price moves against what seems sane and rational. Often this is due to external factors that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but are quite rational when viewed through the lens of an external force. These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected. The problem is that their models do not cater for those external factors. +1 While we do see price manipulation on an intraday timeframe, there really is not a conspiracy or widespread manipulation on the larger scale. It's just outside forces overriding things for a while. Those forces could be a change in margin allowed, tax selling, uncertainties over the fiscal cliff etc. Who says that AAPL has to have a p/e of X or Y? Why is this set in stone as so many seem to think? It really is only a rule of thumb, and there will always be times when there are exceptions. If you want to point to large scale conspiracy, then look at the Federal Reserve and its QE efforts. They actually have helped AAPL massively over the last 3-4 years, far more so than any pullback has helped the shorts. +2
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 8, 2012 14:15:52 GMT -8
We need to publicize more accurate statistics instead of plain old PE.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 8, 2012 14:26:56 GMT -8
Schwarz, Nansen and Zaky have been mentioned a lot on here recently. All of these guys trade on fundamentals for the most part, which is fine when everything is working out. However, there will always be periods of irrationality or at least when the stock price moves against what seems sane and rational. Often this is due to external factors that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but are quite rational when viewed through the lens of an external force. These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected. The problem is that their models do not cater for those external factors. I see things differently. 1. "Trading on fundamentals" is an oxymoron. These guys are trying to time the market and AAPL's movements. Fundamentals and trading don't mix well. Zaky uses TA from what I can tell as well. 2. "These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected." This Board is dominated by TA believers. They are beating themselves up just as badly based upon all the posts here. Seems to me that most traders are getting smoked right now - whether they base their trades on fundamentals or TA. So singling out misguided fundamentals-based traders is misleading in my opinion.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 8, 2012 14:35:06 GMT -8
Forbes: Why Is Apple Stock So Manipulated "Bottom Line In the stock market, the word “manipulation” helps us explain something that we can’t understand. It’s also another way to deflect blame off ourselves and to someone else – this is even though we can’t prove it. However, I will argue that every stock on the market is manipulated. If you can’t agree to this, then none of them are. It sounds very cliché to say, but “stocks go up and stocks go down.” Here’s another one, “if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.” And here’s my favorite,” if you can’t prove it, don’t say it.” www.forbes.com/sites/richardsaintvilus/2012/12/07/why-is-apple-stock-so-manipulated/The article is complete BS. The author can't seem to understand that what people are complaining about and calling manipulation is the fact that AAPL has been moving irrationally when compared to its record and its foreseeable future performance. Of course we complain when it takes a 5% dive, and are silent about manipulation when it goes up. A 5% increase is supported by every metric by which companies and investments are judged. The world has never seen a company with the size and sustained growth that Apple has exhibited, and yet institutional investors and others treat it like a startup that is all market share and no profits. My best guess about what is going on is that the massive profits gained this year in AAPL were sold off for tax purposes. These sales came in waves as various major investors became convinced that there will be no tax deal that avoids an increase in capital gains. If all of my AAPL were not in IRAs I would have been thinking along those lines myself. Also, if I had a lot of taxable money in AAPL and I became convinced no special dividend was forthcoming, but that XYZ company was offering all of next year's dividends in a special dividend before year end, then I'd be selling AAPL to buy XYZ. I can't really believe that the fund managers don't get hints about this kind of thing a little ahead of the rest of us. If any of that is true then it's likely that after 1/1/13 AAPL takes off again. Or maybe the whole market tanks with the new tax rates in place. And what happens to those shares of other companies that were bought to get a special dividend? Some of them won't be paying anything in 2013. Do those shares get dumped immediately? And where does a savvy investor put that money? What's the best buy on the market right now, if not AAPL? Do we need a split? Hell, yes! Ten to one would be great, but I'd settle for four to one. It not only makes shares of AAPL psychologically more affordable to retail investors, it does the same for options, and options are still 100 shares per contract (at least for a little while). And I think having a higher percentage of AAPL ownership in retail hands might put a damper on AAPL's volatility. We will have to agree to disagree about manipulation. I must emphasize that AAPL is the hardest stock to manipulate because it takes the largest amount of money to impact it's price. If one wanted to generate profits manipulating a stock one would choose a stock that one could easily impact. More importantly, I agree with your comment "If any of that is true then it's likely that after 1/1/13 AAPL takes off again.". I must admit that I was blindsided by the last 60 days and have lost a small fortune. I will make adjustments and wait for the right pitch. They say that in a bear market all money goes back to it's rightful owners. Make sure your one of them! I don't know what the low in AAPL stock will be for the balance of the year, but it seems obvious that external factors will continue to influence the price making for a very unpredictable environment. I expect early 2013 will be exceptional for AAPL stock appreciation, unfortunately coinciding with many die hard bulls throwing in the towel. The perfect storm of 2012 is setting up well for a very bountiful 2013. The right pitch is approaching. The safe bet... Buy on the last trading day of the year. Of course... Just my opinion. Do your own due diligence and take personal responsibility for your trades.
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Post by Zeke on Dec 8, 2012 14:50:38 GMT -8
Let's be logical here. Whatever this is it's Apple specific. The rest of the market has not been following the same trends. What's different about Apple? Apple had huge gains this year. What's related to huge gains? Profit taking, particularly if it's accelerated by a looming fiscal disruption, tax changes, and changes in dividend payments.
The next logical question is when does it end? In order, when the year ends, when the fiscal disruption is over, when the tax situation becomes stable, and after dividends are paid.
Then the next question is will fundamental financials for the company again take over? Well, at some point they most assuredly will. I mean, at some point cash on hand per share equals share price. It has to correct sometime. A P/E of 12 is a prediction of zero growth. Zero versus an actual 30%? 20%? The P/E should be more like 25 even based on a conservative, decelerating growth curve, and 25 puts Apple at ~$1200 per share.
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Post by lance on Dec 8, 2012 15:24:16 GMT -8
I heard it all on this stupid downtrend but I can't wait till December 20th and AAPL is down and CNBC runs the story - Mayan calendar end of the world fear sell off occurring in AAPL.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 8, 2012 15:34:00 GMT -8
Jeffi wrote
I disagree with this. Manipulation is most often done with FUD based on any mix of news or rumor.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 8, 2012 15:34:38 GMT -8
I heard it all on this stupid downtrend but I can't wait till December 20th and AAPL is down and CNBC runs the story - Mayan calendar end of the world fear sell off occurring in AAPL. Well here is my prediction, given our crappy luck. Apple gives a warning on Dec 19, that they vastly underestimated demand for all its products by 50% and raises guidance to $30 per share for Q1. Thing is, they do it after hours and the world ends the next damn day. Before trading opens.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 15:42:01 GMT -8
Some believe there's "manipulation" in varying degrees, others outright reject it. I think everyone knows and hopefully at least tolerates their respective positions on it by now.
Sometimes, the traders among us have to drill down to the day-to-day price action, maybe even in smaller timeframes than that. Now is one of those times.
530 is a hugely important point of reference. There's at least two technical signals to consider (the mutant big H&S that some bears really wanted and the smaller H&S starting from November).
And on the sentiment side, aside from the background stuff we already know you've got iPhone 5 supply-demand balance competing against Apple's IP "defeat" with the "Steve Jobs patent", though Apple has tons more patents than that.
How that all drives price action, we'll know soon. Hopefully we won't get a weak gap up Monday, because that could be a big downside tell.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 8, 2012 15:56:23 GMT -8
I don't want to see any more gaps up, because then we leave potholes; and I *still* believe that *most* potholes get filled on the next train going the other way. And there's a gap around 700 I'm waiting to see filled.
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Post by rosie on Dec 8, 2012 15:59:08 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 8, 2012 15:59:11 GMT -8
(...)It's not rational - math is rational - so people turn to technicals. Just don't forget one thing that Lovey has drilled into me and it is this whole IF/THEN scenario. NOTHING IS A GIVEN. We seem to think that technical analysis or fundamental analysis can predict the future - it cannot. (...) GOLD STAR!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by rickag on Dec 8, 2012 16:37:45 GMT -8
I don't want to see any more gaps up, because then we leave potholes; and I *still* believe that *most* potholes get filled on the next train going the other way. And there's a gap around 700 I'm waiting to see filled. Hopefully filled before Jan 13 expiration for a lot of people here.
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Post by osx10 on Dec 8, 2012 17:41:18 GMT -8
Aren't most of the company's done with the Special Div's by Xmas?
I am hopeful that in the next couple of weeks we see some money rotation once the special div issue is played out. Maybe there will be a panic that the train is leaving the station and we can jump that $85 in less than 10 days again.
side note - did my Gene Munster channel check imitation at the Woodland Mall Apple Store in Grand Rapids today and all that they had left in Minis were some white 32s and Sprint 16s. Iphone 5 still said to be selling as quickly as they come in. Did not see a single imac heading out the door during that time period though (about 45 minutes), but the new 21.5 looked nice. Did see a bunch of MBAs or pros leaving with happy customers.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 17:45:16 GMT -8
Schwarz, Nansen and Zaky have been mentioned a lot on here recently. All of these guys trade on fundamentals for the most part, which is fine when everything is working out. However, there will always be periods of irrationality or at least when the stock price moves against what seems sane and rational. Often this is due to external factors that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but are quite rational when viewed through the lens of an external force. These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected. The problem is that their models do not cater for those external factors. I see things differently. 1. "Trading on fundamentals" is an oxymoron. These guys are trying to time the market and AAPL's movements. Fundamentals and trading don't mix well. Zaky uses TA from what I can tell as well. 2. "These fundamentals-driven investors are beating themselves up because things are not panning out as expected." This Board is dominated by TA believers. They are beating themselves up just as badly based upon all the posts here. Seems to me that most traders are getting smoked right now - whether they base their trades on fundamentals or TA. So singling out misguided fundamentals-based traders is misleading in my opinion. Firstly, these guys are buying and selling based on things like p/e ratios. Ergo that is trading. I know Zaky has been trying to include TA in his decisions, but it's clear he's far better at fundamental analysis than he is at technical analysis. As far as I can tell, technical traders are very much in the minority here. In fact you can probably count those that rely purely on TA on one hand. Are you confusing options traders with those who base their decisions purely on technical analysis? I was short on Friday thanks to TA, so did OK. I doubt many non-technical traders would have been. Everyone takes losses, but not everyone is getting smoked. I mention these three because they are held up as paragons of AAPL trading/investing. They write their blog posts or pop up in the media talking about AAPL, so claim some level of expertise. Now that the tide has gone out we can see how good they are in the bad times and not just when things are going their way. The fact that at least two of them seem to be having crises of confidence tells us that perhaps they aren't quite as dependable as once thought. Meanwhile people seem to be taking more notice of the likes of Avi or, Alexander Elder, who were scoffed at when they first said AAPL was in for a drop. However, now proven correct more people feel inclined to believe them. That'll last until they get something wrong, and some new guru with a different methodology emerges.
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Post by alice on Dec 8, 2012 18:05:56 GMT -8
The Radio Shack in my neighborhood has iPhone 5 in stock.
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Post by alice on Dec 8, 2012 18:21:02 GMT -8
If there is a fiscal cliff resolution, will it be most likely done before Xmas? It is only 2 weeks before Xmas.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 8, 2012 18:44:11 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 18:56:57 GMT -8
I'm sure they've kinda of done this already, actually.
Build for the future. Plans moves far in advance of any outside observer's comprehension. That's the Apple I know.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2012 20:02:23 GMT -8
Well I've got about 40% of my portfolio in other dividend paying stocks...really watching early next week and if AAPL jumps up or is flat, I'll probably just keep everything as is, but if we drop to around 500, I think I'll cash everything else in and buy some Bull Put Spreads.
It looks like I can get 550/500 Bull Put Spreads for Jan 2014 for around a $27 Credit if I'm not reading it wrong. So that's more than a 100% return in about a year as long as AAPL is above $550 in a year? Sounds good to me
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