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Post by steeler on Dec 8, 2012 20:14:09 GMT -8
Well I've got about 40% of my portfolio in other dividend paying stocks...really watching early next week and if AAPL jumps up or is flat, I'll probably just keep everything as is, but if we drop to around 500, I think I'll cash everything else in and buy some Bull Put Spreads. It looks like I can get 550/500 Bull Put Spreads for Jan 2014 for around a $27 Credit if I'm not reading it wrong. So that's more than a 100% return in about a year as long as AAPL is above $550 in a year? Sounds good to me Just curious, why bull put spread, not 500/550 bull call spread?
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Post by prazan on Dec 8, 2012 20:19:21 GMT -8
Wheeles, fyi, Zaky publishes about 1,000 words of TA and posts five or six charts every day, relying heavily on RSI and Chaikin Oscillator readings. It's possible that his expectations, based on FA, unduly influence his TA, and it's possible that his TA doesn't conform to your TA, but his daily blog is dominated by TA.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 8, 2012 20:22:30 GMT -8
Well I've got about 40% of my portfolio in other dividend paying stocks...really watching early next week and if AAPL jumps up or is flat, I'll probably just keep everything as is, but if we drop to around 500, I think I'll cash everything else in and buy some Bull Put Spreads. It looks like I can get 550/500 Bull Put Spreads for Jan 2014 for around a $27 Credit if I'm not reading it wrong. So that's more than a 100% return in about a year as long as AAPL is above $550 in a year? Sounds good to me Just curious, why bull put spread, not 500/550 bull call spread? If you can handle the stress on margin, they give you the $27 credit rather than having to pay the 27 bucks debit. Even if you just leave the credit in cash for the period until maturity or close out you get interest on the bucks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 21:16:14 GMT -8
It's really the same thing only different.
I like the go-for-the-gains approach (BCS) and seeing your chips on the table over trying to hang onto the "credit" you got, with the possibility of LOSING more money than you even RECEIVED. That and the margin deal - but I'm biased towards debit trades. iPad and many others use credit trades.
Choose your psychology, basically, though it's true that bull put spreads, when successful, save on closing transactions.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2012 21:23:22 GMT -8
Just an observation, but the difference in mood between here and and the Braeburn board are massive at the moment.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 22:43:34 GMT -8
They're super-enthusiastic over there, you mean?
Shareholders can be more sanguine, of course. If they choose, they have their whole lives to invest. (Kinda funny actually, being a non-shareholder for the first time in years.)
I take it you're in Braeburn? What info do you need, and what info about you is made known to the general membership (aside from Robert)? I don't see Robert as a guy who changes his membership policies.
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Post by sponge on Dec 8, 2012 22:51:30 GMT -8
They're super-enthusiastic over there, you mean? Shareholders can be more sanguine, of course. If they choose, they have their whole lives to invest. (Kinda funny actually, being a non-shareholder for the first time in years.) I take it you're in Braeburn? What info do you need, and what info about you is made known to the general membership (aside from Robert)? I don't see Robert as a guy who changes his membership policies. Just a real name Mav. And we have a few bears by the way. And most still are option holders. The share folks keep quiet and ride out the storm.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 8, 2012 23:21:42 GMT -8
Just an observation, but the difference in mood between here and and the Braeburn board are massive at the moment. As a really smart (ass) woman told me once, "being super optimistic about AAPL works until it doesn't."
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Dec 9, 2012 0:31:40 GMT -8
Makes no sense. Apple said that it invested $100M in manufacturing in the USA. If they are only going to manufacture 400,000 units, then that's a heck of an investment for such a small number of units. Besides, didn't some of the iMac's already state on the label that they were assembled in the USA?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 0:52:43 GMT -8
Apple's gonna build billions of dollars worth of Macs the very first (partial?) year of operation, I suspect.
The laughability index will only soar as Apple inevitably (contract) manufactures more of its "negligible" Macs (that $20B or so business line no one cares about) in the US over time. And I doubt it'll stop at Mac over the next decade.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 9, 2012 5:08:08 GMT -8
Wheeles, fyi, Zaky publishes about 1,000 words of TA and posts five or six charts every day, relying heavily on RSI and Chaikin Oscillator readings. It's possible that his expectations, based on FA, unduly influence his TA, and it's possible that his TA doesn't conform to your TA, but his daily blog is dominated by TA. Personally, I don't follow Zaky but all I ever hear regarding him when he is mentioned here are arguments based on fundamentals. If he's so skilled at TA, then why is he and his fund in such bad shape? From what I understand from the anecdotal reports of what he's doing is using either technical analysis or fundamental analysis to back up some very aggressive punts, which have not come off. It's as if he is cherry-picking his analysis to support whatever argument he is trying to make. Admittedly, it is very hard not to try and dig up whatever evidence you can to support a thesis or an existing position. I'm guilty of that myself. It's amazing just how much your chart interpretations turn 180 when you reverse your position. That happened to me a couple of times to me last week. As someone who trades on technicals alone, I still find it very difficult to trust what my charts are saying, even now. The desire for a move to go a little bit further, or pullback is incredibly strong. You end up conjuring up new rules in your head, or thinking that this time it might be different. Probably the most difficult thing in trading technically is having the discipline to follow what your charts are saying, to not question them or discount them, and to dump a position or reverse it promptly if things start to change on you.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 5:23:53 GMT -8
Just an observation, but the difference in mood between here and and the Braeburn board are massive at the moment. As a really smart (ass) woman told me once, "being super optimistic about AAPL works until it doesn't." Sounds like someone I would like.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 5:51:53 GMT -8
Birdie, re: AZ... Most on this board, as you said, lean toward FA, which IMHO is why the AZ talk on this board leans toward FA; however, AZ does excel at both.
I would argue this intermediate-term downtrend has been unrelenting in the same way the uptrend was unrelenting at the beginning of the year -- with the additional mindf*ck of the oscillators embedding in oversold territory being far more rare than overbought territory.
From my observation, FA did interfere with his (historically exceptional) risk management after the initial drop from ATH during the retest of the highs, because TA clearly showed bearish divergence. At the time, AAPL and SPY were technically aligned -- and AZ executed the SPY trades perfectly. In the past, he would have unloaded those last AAPL purchases into that initial oversold bounce, immediately replenishing the emergency cash whether or not he expected additional upside. IMHO, that was the fork in the road where *this rare time* Bullish Cross zigged instead of zagging.
I have learned so many risk management tricks from AZ, such that they are entrenched in me. It was AZ's former discipline with emergency cash that prevented me from following BC into what I perceived as a deviation from the exceptional risk management principles he drilled into us. I call it damage control; he calls it unf*cking a trade. There are many tools (tricks) of the trade, and one of those is: emergency cash can bail you out of deep s*it.
So, those are my early morning thoughts on that subject. No one is infallible, and hindsight is 20/20. I have the utmost respect for Andy -- he was/is one of my teachers, and he has expanded my tool chest immeasurably.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 6:17:59 GMT -8
(...)Probably the most difficult thing in trading technically is having the discipline to follow what your charts are saying, to not question them or discount them, and to dump a position or reverse it promptly if things start to change on you. Yes!!! So, SO true!!! I was so proud of myself for finally, FINALLY attaining (sustaining?) that prized objectivity from 705 to 585. But from that point onward -- losing the daily SMA-200 and the weekly SMA-50 -- it's been a constant struggle to "believe" what the charts clearly show: a technically broken stock, until proven otherwise. I keep expecting that "proof otherwise" to show up any second -- I know it will eventually -- which inhibits me from trading what I see. WHEN this intermediate-term downtrend finally reverses, it may very well continue this year's theme of "unrelenting strength of *whatever* prevailing trend." But WHEN it reverses, we will see (confirm) it in the technicals. Until then, the friggin' trend is still down.
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macorange
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Post by macorange on Dec 9, 2012 7:37:14 GMT -8
If TC wants to throw us little investors a bone, he'll break with custom, and provide updated guidance right after Xmas, "due to unprecedented demand for Apple products." That could trigger the short squeeze of the century.
That fantasy aside, my strategy these days is to stop trying to time the market (I have lost money almost every time) and stop looking at the tape during the day (much better for my digestive system). I've done very well with long term AAPL options, and until somebody comes up with a better investment idea, that's where my money stays.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 9, 2012 7:42:26 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility?
I strongly disagree that this Board is biased towards FA. Just look at the sheer volume of posts on Fibs, support levels, moving averages and all the rest of it. That talk completely dominates this place.
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Post by steeler on Dec 9, 2012 8:28:41 GMT -8
Just curious, why bull put spread, not 500/550 bull call spread?[/quote]
If you can handle the stress on margin, they give you the $27 credit rather than having to pay the 27 bucks debit. Even if you just leave the credit in cash for the period until maturity or close out you get interest on the bucks. [/quote] Thanks, Red, but I find sometimes Bull Call Spreads seem to have higher return than Bull put spreads of the same strikes.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 9, 2012 8:51:12 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility? I strongly disagree that this Board is biased towards FA. Just look at the sheer volume of posts on Fibs, support levels, moving averages and all the rest of it. That talk completely dominates this place. This board has got a lot more technical in nature because those relying on FA have lost a boatload and are looking for answers.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 9, 2012 9:03:41 GMT -8
If TC wants to throw us little investors a bone, he'll break with custom, and provide updated guidance right after Xmas, "due to unprecedented demand for Apple products." That could trigger the short squeeze of the century. That fantasy aside,... Tangible and intangible actions that Tim Cook can do in order of ease of timing 1. Stock buyback 2. Stock split 3. New products 3b. New manufacturing facilities, especially in the US A new stock buyback is the easiest way to prop up the price in the next 4 weeks.
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Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 9:05:27 GMT -8
This board has got a lot more technical in nature because those relying on FA have lost a boatload and are looking for answers. Perhaps. I don't know what others who rely primarily on FA have done, but I know what I have done since 2008-09 during downdrafts and consolidation periods Move option position expiration dates way out there (for LEAPS already way out there, hold through the consolidation/downdraft), discount the most bullish price targets when deciding on strike prices, move up cash holdings and systematically move a portion of the profits over the past 4 years to creating an income stream to supplement our pensions once we retire next year. It has worked well and I am grateful to Apple, to people who rely on FA and to those who post TA thoughts. Oh, and those boatloads of losses - up in ten-bagger territory over the past 4 years.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 9, 2012 9:12:46 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility? I strongly disagree that this Board is biased towards FA. Just look at the sheer volume of posts on Fibs, support levels, moving averages and all the rest of it. That talk completely dominates this place. This board has got a lot more technical in nature because those relying on FA have lost a boatload and are looking for answers. FA people are not alone, if you go by all the angst amongst the TA converts who are still looking for answers. Looking for answers that do not exist in my opinion. We had the top of the class TA people here begging Nate not to sell, because all the TA stuff said we were near a bottom as we passed through 600. They were wrong. So was I for entirely different reasons. Hardly any of us retail types got this one right. Not trying to start a religious war, and I would not even have jumped in if it were not for that original post that tried to blame FA for the losses NH, AZ, and JS. I think that was a misplaced correlation. That opinion has since been strengthened, given the posts on how much AZ was relying on TA.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Dec 9, 2012 9:25:35 GMT -8
Apple's gonna build billion s of dollars worth of Macs the very first (partial?) year of operation, I suspect. The laughability index will only soar as Apple inevitably (contract) manufactures more of its "negligible" Macs (that $20B or so business line no one cares about) in the US over time. And I doubt it'll stop at Mac over the next decade. As we all well know, some of the modern manufacturing techniques that Apple's subcontractors use today were taught to them by Apple.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Dec 9, 2012 9:27:47 GMT -8
Just curious, why bull put spread, not 500/550 bull call spread? If you can handle the stress on margin, they give you the $27 credit rather than having to pay the 27 bucks debit. Even if you just leave the credit in cash for the period until maturity or close out you get interest on the bucks. [/quote] Thanks, Red, but I find sometimes Bull Call Spreads seem to have higher return than Bull put spreads of the same strikes.[/quote] Even if not, the interest on the credit is almost negligible nowadays
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 9:29:29 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility? No. ;D
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Post by Lstream on Dec 9, 2012 9:34:15 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility? No. ;D LOL ;D
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Post by sponge on Dec 9, 2012 9:50:28 GMT -8
If TC wants to throw us little investors a bone, he'll break with custom, and provide updated guidance right after Xmas, "due to unprecedented demand for Apple products." That could trigger the short squeeze of the century. That fantasy aside,... Tangible and intangible actions that Tim Cook can do in order of ease of timing 1. Stock buyback 2. Stock split 3. New products 3b. New manufacturing facilities, especially in the US A new stock buyback is the easiest way to prop up the price in the next 4 weeks. TC is not going to attempt to move the stock price. That is not the way they operate. He will increase the dividend at the right time and that is about it. That will be done with board approval and managed months in advance. What moves the stock price YOY is earnings. He will focus on that and only that. Price fluctuations that happen every 6 months can not be controlled by the company. We just have to ride out the storm. I do favor a stock split to decrease the volatility and I am hopeful we will see one next summer when we are trading around $800.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 9, 2012 9:51:11 GMT -8
If TC wants to throw us little investors a bone, he'll break with custom, and provide updated guidance right after Xmas, "due to unprecedented demand for Apple products." That could trigger the short squeeze of the century. That fantasy aside,... Tangible and intangible actions that Tim Cook can do in order of ease of timing 1. Stock buyback 2. Stock split 3. New products 3b. New manufacturing facilities, especially in the US A new stock buyback is the easiest way to prop up the price in the next 4 weeks. In 2013 I hope we see the introduction of a six monthly update cycle for the iPhone, iPad and iPad mini.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 9, 2012 9:58:55 GMT -8
Finally watched the Rock Center interview. Would have rather TC not done it. I fail to see what purpose it served.
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Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 10:02:48 GMT -8
Finally watched the Rock Center interview. Would have rather TC not done it. I fail to see what purpose it served. I have not watched it yet. I liked the interview in Bloomberg.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 9, 2012 10:09:56 GMT -8
Finally watched the Rock Center interview. Would have rather TC not done it. I fail to see what purpose it served. I didn't find it that great either, especially the Samsung commercials they put in it.
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