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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 9, 2012 10:14:16 GMT -8
I don't really understand how people can rely ONLY on TA or ONLY on FA. It seems to me that they often (not always) take center stage at different times. Right now - AAPL is not trading on fundamentals but on technicals due to macro tax change issues and political lack of agreement. The stock will follow Fib levels - at least in the short and intermediate term. There shouldn't be a war on this board over which is correct - it's not a one size fits all analysis. Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 9, 2012 10:32:29 GMT -8
I don't really understand how people can rely ONLY on TA or ONLY on FA. It seems to me that they often (not always) take center stage at different times. Right now - AAPL is not trading on fundamentals but on technicals due to macro tax change issues and political lack of agreement. The stock will follow Fib levels - at least in the short and intermediate term. There shouldn't be a war on this board over which is correct - it's not a one size fits all analysis. Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it. I guess TA could supplement FA in the short term, but long term, TA is only following the stock as the stock moves based on fundamentals.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 9, 2012 10:37:27 GMT -8
I don't really understand how people can rely ONLY on TA or ONLY on FA. It seems to me that they often (not always) take center stage at different times. Right now - AAPL is not trading on fundamentals but on technicals due to macro tax change issues and political lack of agreement. The stock will follow Fib levels - at least in the short and intermediate term. There shouldn't be a war on this board over which is correct - it's not a one size fits all analysis. Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it. I guess TA could supplement FA in the short term, but long term, TA is only following the stock as the stock moves based on fundamentals. Agreed - no argument. There ya go! Maybe the two of us should go to Washington and make decisions swiftly there while we're on a roll!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 10:59:49 GMT -8
Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it. All MHO: TA attempts to quantify crowd behavior. If you understand the psychology of supply/demand dynamics underlying TA shorthand, you understand that at its core, TA = behavioral finance. Me, I invest on FA. I trade on TA. FA tells me what to buy / sell; TA tells me when.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 9, 2012 11:05:23 GMT -8
Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it. All MHO: TA attempts to quantify crowd behavior. If you understand the psychology of supply/demand dynamics underlying TA shorthand, you understand that at its core, TA = behavioral finance. Me, I invest on FA. I trade on TA. FA tells me what to buy / sell; TA tells me when. Makes perfect sense. And you can just imagine if Obama and Boehner come out and say they have agreed on something - the herd mentality will take over and we get that Santa rally.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 9, 2012 11:19:43 GMT -8
Truth be told, a degree in behavioral science would benefit us most at this point...because that is what is prompting the waves...of selling...that become technical in nature. At least that is how I see it. All MHO: TA attempts to quantify crowd behavior. If you understand the psychology of supply/demand dynamics underlying TA shorthand, you understand that at its core, TA = behavioral finance. Me, I invest on FA. I trade on TA. FA tells me what to buy / sell; TA tells me when. Perfect! Of course, if only it was that simple. In any event, we should all just take advantage of the short term market mis-pricing by buying low and selling high. It's not rocket science... Right? Unfortunately, it's greed and fear that gets in the way. Tame those and your road may be paved in gold.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 9, 2012 12:02:42 GMT -8
Makes perfect sense. And you can just imagine if Obama and Boehner come out and say they have agreed on something - the herd mentality will take over and we get that Santa rally. We can only imagine!
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Post by Rupert on Dec 9, 2012 12:06:42 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: Learn To Trust YourselfPosted on December 8, 2012 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/2012/12/08/learn-to-trust-yourself/This morning I would like to talk about personal responsibility. My personal account has had some significant draw downs. I have some January and February spreads that I am concerned about. I have read many of your comments about how much many of you have lost. I feel the pain. I care deeply about everyone of my readers. It is a burden that I carry Because I care about what happens in your lives. The first reaction all human beings have when they suffer a loss like losing money is to look for someone to blame for their loss. This is natural. It is what makes us human. I have done this thousands of times in my career. It helps to ease the pain. We get angry at someone who we think is responsible for our loss and this anger helps us cope with the pain. At some point after doing this many times, I realized that this human response was not helping me avoid future losses. How could I react to my losses in a way that might help avoid future losses. A wise old mentor suggested to me that I should try to take personal responsibility for my losses. I thought this was crazy. It only made me feel worse. Now I was suffering from my loss and I had to blame myself for the pain. That did not feel right. He explained if I took responsibility for my losses, that meant I truly took responsibility for the decisions that I made when I first decided how I was going to invest my money. That meant that I made the decision and I did not let any guru influence me entirely. That meant that I would listen to others, but I would never trust them 100% ever again. It was a break through for me, I could not really trust someone else to make important decisions. I had to learn to trust myself and take 100% responsibility for the outcome. What a novel idea. Learn to trust my own intuition and learn to never completely trust what someone else told me. I could weigh it and evaluate it, but it is my life and I am responsible for the outcome. What a novel idea. It felt liberating and a little scary at the same time. It took a long time to implement this strange idea because it runs counter to what we humans initially feel. I am 100% responsible for where I am at in life. My happiness and my success are in my hands and they are not determined by other people. Over the years I noticed a marked improvement in the quality of my trading and the quality of my happiness and overall decision making after I began to take responsibility for my decisions. I still make a lot of mistakes, but I do not blame anyone else. They are my decisions. I ask myself if there is anything I can learn from my mistake and then I quickly move on. I am happy and confident in myself. I am the captain of my life. I hope this helps in some small way. Enjoy your week end.
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Post by tradermac on Dec 9, 2012 12:13:14 GMT -8
Maybe this should be in the "current positions" thread but it's real quiet over there so I'll post this question here.
In regards to rolling out a spread to take advantage of higher prices, when do you guys recommend doing it? For example, I have an Apr 650/660. If I have a feeling we'll be at 700 by Apr and want to take advantage of that, is there an optimum time to roll to a 690/700? Should I wait for higher prices to do it to ensure the uptrend is back or just roll now and pray?
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 9, 2012 12:37:44 GMT -8
TC is not going to attempt to move the stock price. That is not the way they operate. He will increase the dividend at the right time and that is about it. That will be done with board approval and managed months in advance. What moves the stock price YOY is earnings. He will focus on that and only that. Price fluctuations that happen every 6 months can not be controlled by the company. We just have to ride out the storm. I do favor a stock split to decrease the volatility and I am hopeful we will see one next summer when we are trading around $800. TC has attempted to move the stock price many times. e.g. leaking product launch plans to allthingsd after July quarter miss, establishing dividend to bring in new investors. A CEO's duties does not only revolve around earnings. He should not just focus on that. Even if your assertion was true that TC should only focus on earnings, should TC not be deploying some of that 130 $/sh of cash? Cash yielding ~0.5% and AAPL cashflow yield 10+%. Can't think of a better used of shareholders cash. Burgess pointed out "Spending 50 to 60 billion to buyback 10% of outstanding shares over 12 months would be a good result that barely touches apples cash pile (remember apple adds around 10 billion cash every quarter). 10% share buy back will add $5-$6 to EPS over the next 12 months, and apple will still have over $100 billion in cash. " Fact is - growth investors are rotating out and GARP/Value investors need investor friendly managements. PS Stocks splits historically do NOT decrease vol.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 9, 2012 12:51:58 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 13:16:50 GMT -8
'Cept, it's not fantasy in Apple's labs. It's probably content/infrastructure driven. Apple has the panels, expertise, and interface (and likely prototypes). Question is, just how much harder is it to break into cable-type TV than it is to break into the cellular business?
(Apple TV set-top is always a possibility vs. the set itself.)
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Post by Big Al on Dec 9, 2012 13:26:03 GMT -8
TC is not going to attempt to move the stock price. That is not the way they operate. He will increase the dividend at the right time and that is about it. That will be done with board approval and managed months in advance. What moves the stock price YOY is earnings. He will focus on that and only that. Price fluctuations that happen every 6 months can not be controlled by the company. We just have to ride out the storm. Sponge, this is so true.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 9, 2012 13:35:34 GMT -8
He will increase the dividend at the right time and that is about it. That will be done with board approval and managed months in advance. What moves the stock price YOY is earnings. He will focus on that and only that. Price fluctuations that happen every 6 months can not be controlled by the company. We just have to ride out the storm. I do favor a stock split to decrease the volatility and I am hopeful we will see one next summer when we are trading around $800. I will disagree with the connotation that price fluctuations "can not be controlled" by Apple. Apple's guidance and subsequent lack of PR has great influence on stock price.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 9, 2012 15:05:33 GMT -8
Wouldn't it make sense then to not give out advice if we're supposed to trust ourselves?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:17:57 GMT -8
"Nick Nansen: Don't Trust Me"
Doesn't have the same ring to it. ;D
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Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 15:20:23 GMT -8
Usually when AAPL price does what it has over the past month or so things get a lot more tense on discussion fora. I congratulate all of us for our continued civility here, though a bit more tension might be entertaining
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:21:41 GMT -8
I HATE YOU RONI!How's that Staying cool should serve us much better anyway. Approach Monday as calmly as possible (if trading). Otherwise - go back on vacation from the markets! This is nothing! (yet)
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 15:21:51 GMT -8
Bite your tongue, Roni!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:23:46 GMT -8
See that smaller H&S pattern yet, iPad? (Maybe starting from around Nov. 8 instead of 15)
Or do I have to go get checked for Mirage Syndrome?
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Post by sponge on Dec 9, 2012 15:24:24 GMT -8
He will increase the dividend at the right time and that is about it. That will be done with board approval and managed months in advance. What moves the stock price YOY is earnings. He will focus on that and only that. Price fluctuations that happen every 6 months can not be controlled by the company. We just have to ride out the storm. I do favor a stock split to decrease the volatility and I am hopeful we will see one next summer when we are trading around $800. I will disagree with the connotation that price fluctuations "can not be controlled" by Apple. Apple's guidance and subsequent lack of PR has great influence on stock price. We have this discussion every time we correct and all experience serious losses. My LEAPS are down 80% and my stock 52% because I am on margin. I am not too concerned. The stock moves very wildly for no reason at all. Some time there are reasons that have little to do with fundamentals. It is a slippery road if Apple attempts to move the stock every time we correct more then 15%. The market decides the price not the company. WS can move the stock regardless what the company says or does Other then buying it back, which they are on a small scale there is little they can do. Splitting it will help but it should be part of a long term strategy not a response to crazy selling. They will split when we are moving up into ATH not during corrections. Even if they were to make pre-earnings announcements, WS will find an excuse to critic any number they release. Apple wants investors to buy the stock and hold it for many years. Option trading and margin investing is not their concern.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:27:08 GMT -8
For shareholders there isn't yet cause for concern.
Tim and the Board sure as heck _are_ paying attention to the stock price, but there's a fine line between caring "enough" and caring to the satisfaction of shareholders or traders, because that starts to look knee-jerk.
Longer-term, if Tim is indeed making Apple more "friendly" in certain ways, it makes no sense to not give a rip (on some level) about share price, as many employees and most execs would like to see their efforts logically rewarded with a higher share price.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 15:30:31 GMT -8
See that smaller H&S pattern yet, iPad? (Maybe starting from around Nov. 8 instead of 15) Or do I have to go get checked for Mirage Syndrome? The 3-headed goofy one we talked about in Chart Talk?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 15:32:19 GMT -8
What Spongie said (except for the percentage and composition of my portfolio holdings).
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 9, 2012 15:43:26 GMT -8
Tangible and intangible actions that Tim Cook can do in order of ease of timing 1. Stock buyback 2. Stock split 3. New products 3b. New manufacturing facilities, especially in the US A new stock buyback is the easiest way to prop up the price in the next 4 weeks. TC is not going to attempt to move the stock price. That is not the way they operate. In fact, it's not his job to micromanage the stock price to make option traders (like us) happy. His job is to manage to company such that it becomes worth more over the long-term. My best guess is that after 4 quarterly dividends have been distributed, they will raise the quarterly dividend to $3. Then, after another 4 quarters, raise it to $3.50. And so on. Agree completely.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 9, 2012 15:50:52 GMT -8
Tim and the Board sure as heck _are_ paying attention to the stock price, but there's a fine line between caring "enough" and caring to the satisfaction of shareholders or traders Only 1 fine line ?
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Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 15:52:42 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 15:59:08 GMT -8
See that smaller H&S pattern yet, iPad? (Maybe starting from around Nov. 8 instead of 15) Or do I have to go get checked for Mirage Syndrome? The 3-headed goofy one we talked about in Chart Talk? Try going to Google Finance, line chart, see a big-version chart from at least Nov. 8 to the present. I don't know if we're talking the same thing.
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Post by rosie on Dec 9, 2012 16:20:31 GMT -8
Wouldn't it make sense then to not give out advice if we're supposed to trust ourselves? I was a Nick fan for a short time when he seemed to be giving out fact based information. I've learned a lot (from many of you) since last Spring. Reading Nansen's rather self serving statements about his delayed personal growth ? no thanx. I mean, personal responsibility is one of the first things we try to incorporate into our lives, usually beginning in first grade.
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Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 16:30:36 GMT -8
I like Nick's P/E table. I read a lot, put it all through my mental blender and use what comes out. After 20 years, what comes out is my responsibility and i own it.
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