|
Post by jeffi on Dec 9, 2012 16:38:30 GMT -8
I will disagree with the connotation that price fluctuations "can not be controlled" by Apple. Apple's guidance and subsequent lack of PR has great influence on stock price. We have this discussion every time we correct and all experience serious losses. My LEAPS are down 80% and my stock 52% because I am on margin. I am not too concerned. The stock moves very wildly for no reason at all. Some time there are reasons that have little to do with fundamentals. It is a slippery road if Apple attempts to move the stock every time we correct more then 15%. The market decides the price not the company. WS can move the stock regardless what the company says or does Other then buying it back, which they are on a small scale there is little they can do. Splitting it will help but it should be part of a long term strategy not a response to crazy selling. They will split when we are moving up into ATH not during corrections. Even if they were to make pre-earnings announcements, WS will find an excuse to critic any number they release. Apple wants investors to buy the stock and hold it for many years. Option trading and margin investing is not their concern. I'm not one to typically agree with you but, you nailed it. Careful with the margin.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 16:42:41 GMT -8
I like Nick's P/E table. I read a lot, put it all through my mental blender and use what comes out. After 20 years, what comes out is my responsibility and i own it. Awesome post.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 9, 2012 16:48:17 GMT -8
Wouldn't it make sense then to not give out advice if we're supposed to trust ourselves? I was a Nick fan for a short time when he seemed to be giving out fact based information. I've learned a lot (from many of you) since last Spring. Reading Nansen's rather self serving statements about his delayed personal growth ? no thanx. I mean, personal responsibility is one of the first things we try to incorporate into our lives, usually beginning in first grade. I like Nick. Yes he has been wrong in his predictions but so has everyone else who bought stock or options with price targets in the future. He taught me ( I did not follow by the way) to buy when the p/e is 13. Few sat around with cash waiting for that moment. That other lesson is to keep 50% in cash at all times. For me the stock is like cash since I can sell and convert into options. I have done so a bought at low costs from 666 to 526. Obviously I thought 666 was low enough and have been wrong all the way to 505. Fortunately I have bought in small increments. We will find out in march if that was a good or bad idea.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2012 16:57:35 GMT -8
Horace in his latest podcast, and a recent asymco.com post ,has a new hypothesis that Apple is moving the iPhone & iPad onto a 6 month product life cycle.
It's an intriguing thought.
As it stands on the 12 month cycle, we seem to experience massive swings between the first 2 quarters of iPhone availability, and then the transition 1-2 quarters when sales drop off substantially.
A six month release cycle would likely smooth out the peak demand periods and see more steady earnings performance over the year.
It would also not leave any gap for competitors to launch into. Samsung gained major traction with the Galaxy S3 launch during the April-August global rollout this year. Can you imagine what earnings reports for quarters 3 & 4 would have been like this year if the iPhone 5 had launched back in April? They would have been much better. And this current quarter would not had suffered very much as we would have had the iPhone 5S released already.
It sounds like a winning formula, but of course it would all be dependant on apples production capability to ramp up and transition products within weeks every 6 months.
Anyone have any thoughts?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 17:27:30 GMT -8
Not happening UNLESS the tech cycle allows such a refresh.
There may be room to move iPhone back to a summer deal. From there we can see if AAPL can iterate on SoC tech in intervals under 12 months.
There IS room to move iPad mini as close to iPhone as the SoC generation/product differentiation/supply/etc. considerations allow. I mean hey, A6 iPad mini in April/May? I can see that.
I have no idea what to think about iPad. iPad 5 with A7X in maybe April/May? Exciting if that turns out to be the case.
If it sounds like I'm focusing too much on the chip, it's because I think it's a "tentpole" requirement to iterate the generation of iOS device IMHO. 2x the graphics (minimum, you may only be able to get away with that for a Retina iPad mini switchover) or something close to 2x the CPU AND graphics. It's not like the Samsung Galaxy S III looks all that different from the S II, y'know?
Which, btw, is also why Jony Ive is just fine keeping iOS form factor redesigns to a 2-year cycle IMHO.
|
|
|
Post by mightydog on Dec 9, 2012 17:50:13 GMT -8
Wouldn't it make sense then to not give out advice if we're supposed to trust ourselves? I was a Nick fan for a short time when he seemed to be giving out fact based information. I've learned a lot (from many of you) since last Spring. Reading Nansen's rather self serving statements about his delayed personal growth ? no thanx. I mean, personal responsibility is one of the first things we try to incorporate into our lives, usually beginning in first grade. I agree, rosie. I've grown tired of the oft repeated line, "Nick Nansen says..."
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 17:52:29 GMT -8
Some AFB2ers follow Nansen's posts. That's fine. I'm not a big fan personally, but everyone knows DYODD™* by now and all the rest. *Do Your Own Due Diligence. One popular variation I just made up includes a third D in a row, for DYODDD. I think you can figure out what that one stands for. I still hate Blodget/BusinessInsider tho
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2012 17:57:26 GMT -8
Usually when AAPL price does what it has over the past month or so things get a lot more tense on discussion fora. I congratulate all of us for our continued civility here, though a bit more tension might be entertaining Little Roni! ALWAYS the trouble maker! ;D Entertaining how? What's funny about it? You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little fucked up maybe, but I'm entertaining how, I mean entertaining like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to fuckin' amuse you? What do you mean entertaining, entertaining how? How am I entertaining? Attention: this is supposed to be a humorous post. Based on a movie.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 18:01:51 GMT -8
Usually when AAPL price does what it has over the past month or so things get a lot more tense on discussion fora. I congratulate all of us for our continued civility here, though a bit more tension might be entertaining Little Roni! ALWAYS the trouble maker! ;D Entertaining how? What's funny about it? You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little fucked up maybe, but I'm entertaining how, I mean entertaining like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to fuckin' amuse you? What do you mean entertaining, entertaining how? How am I entertaining? Attention: this is supposed to be a humorous post. Based on a movie. okay You're all right, Artman
|
|
|
Post by imoi on Dec 9, 2012 18:07:35 GMT -8
All MHO: TA attempts to quantify crowd behavior. If you understand the psychology of supply/demand dynamics underlying TA shorthand, you understand that at its core, TA = behavioral finance. Me, I invest on FA. I trade on TA. FA tells me what to buy / sell; TA tells me when. + 1 Hello all! Beside long timeframe RRSP holdings, I was on the sidelines for a while but now I'm back in AAPL, got 531.xx friday, I used all my available capital and sold the VMW shares I had to get back in. AAPL is a FREAKIN BARGAIN AT THESE LEVELS, I can't believe the insanity of the late price moves. I say AAPL is a bargain at these levels because of the fundamentals. The iPad Mini is gonna kill the tablet market as the iPod did with the mp3 device one, IMHO. The iPad Mini is gonna be huge, it's the perfect fit for every use, consumer as business wise. I work for a very large Canadian public city (I know this may sounds funny), in the IT dept., we recently dropped the Blackberry phones for iPhones and iPads and the Apple devices were chosen because of security and norms needs. I say, hang on, we are very low now, one or two years from now, at the most, we'll be looking at our shares and say, if we go anywhere below 2000, that's it, we're in a WTF phase, I remember when we were at 3000 not 3 months ago...!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 18:28:06 GMT -8
*Do Your Own Due Diligence. One popular variation I just made up includes a third D in a row, for DYODDD. I think you can figure out what that one stands for. Dumb*ss Dillweed D*ckhead Dumb bunny Doo-doo head Ding Dong Ding-a-ling Dork
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 9, 2012 18:30:23 GMT -8
Welcome imoi
the coming year will certainly be amazing.
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 9, 2012 18:30:51 GMT -8
I read the legislative year ends Dec. 21st. So there is 2 weeks to see if there will a fiscal cliff resolution this year.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2012 18:39:19 GMT -8
In other news: the Twin Cities received a lot of heavy wet snow today. I am guessing the Metrodome roof will collapse sometime in the next 24 hours. The facility folks have increased the indoor pressure and increased the inside temperature to almost 100 degrees to melt the snow on the roof.
|
|
|
Post by imoi on Dec 9, 2012 18:54:02 GMT -8
In other news: the Twin Cities received a lot of heavy wet snow today. I am guessing the Metrodome roof will collapse sometime in the next 24 hours. The facility folks have increased the indoor pressure and increased the inside temperature to almost 100 degrees to melt the snow on the roof. On the plus side, the Vikings won over the Bears.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 9, 2012 18:55:27 GMT -8
I read the legislative year ends Dec. 21st. So there is 2 weeks to see if there will a fiscal cliff resolution this year. I think we go over the cliff and resolve the issues by February. House will negotiate to cut taxes and WH to keep them high. The dynamics change dramatically after Jan. We need to be patient as they work things out. Market may go down further but I think aapl will be OK. On a different subject; watch this video with the Bloomberg reporter that interviewed TC. It is clear that TC and management are not concerned with the stock price at the moment. 9to5mac.com/2012/12/06/tim-cook-talks-forstall-jony-ives-new-design-role-samsung-and-more/
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Dec 9, 2012 19:03:32 GMT -8
i work in manufacturing, and not that we are 1% of 1% of an Apple, but we do make fancy products for smart home control, home theater, etc etc. (self plug www.Crestron.com haha). But anyway, I'm in the mechanical design group, and pretty much work from the beginning to the end on product releases, and all the crap that is involved. I would easily bet Apple is at least 10x more efficient in releasing a complete product in a timely manner, but I still can't even imagine turning around a new product every 6 months and phasing it in while managing the supply chain of every part, product, etc. When we do a new touchpanel or something, volumes are in the tens of thousands, and it still seems neverending to get a new product out the door smoothly, after all the certifications, testing, QC, beta, and on and on and on. Doing what I do, I'm already very amazed at the quick turnaround that Apple is able to achieve when launching new products, and how smoothly it all goes. A 6 month turnaround for a significant upgraded product would be unbelievable. However, if any company were able to pull it off, it'd be Apple. I read the legislative year ends Dec. 21st. So there is 2 weeks to see if there will a fiscal cliff resolution this year. yea they get another nice long vacation to reward themselves for the great complete job they did!
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Dec 9, 2012 19:22:25 GMT -8
If no agreement is reached by 12/21 someone needs to order congress to stay in D.C. until the bitter end and keep attempting to problem solve. Wow. What a concept.
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 9, 2012 19:29:35 GMT -8
I read the legislative year ends Dec. 21st. So there is 2 weeks to see if there will a fiscal cliff resolution this year. I think we go over the cliff and resolve the issues by February. House will negotiate to cut taxes and WH to keep them high. The dynamics change dramatically after Jan. We need to be patient as they work things out. Market may go down further but I think aapl will be OK. On a different subject; watch this video with the Bloomberg reporter that interviewed TC. It is clear that TC and management are not concerned with the stock price at the moment. 9to5mac.com/2012/12/06/tim-cook-talks-forstall-jony-ives-new-design-role-samsung-and-more/Why Feb? They have had plenty of time. They need to get it done by Dec. 21st.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 19:31:43 GMT -8
Congress doesn't NEED to do anything. It's just that consequences increase with delay. They'll all go home on the 21st one way or another, with a procedural exception or two.
|
|
|
Post by bribery on Dec 9, 2012 19:32:33 GMT -8
I recently heard that Obama was leaving for Hawaii on the 17th...?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 19:32:43 GMT -8
*Do Your Own Due Diligence. One popular variation I just made up includes a third D in a row, for DYODDD. I think you can figure out what that one stands for. Dumb*ss Dillweed D*ckhead Dumb bunny Doo-doo head Ding Dong Ding-a-ling Dork Oh my. But that's funnier!Sometimes, it "pays" to leave things open-ended! ;D (And so I will.)
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Dec 9, 2012 19:37:27 GMT -8
*Do Your Own Due Diligence. One popular variation I just made up includes a third D in a row, for DYODDD. I think you can figure out what that one stands for. Dumb*ss Dillweed D*ckhead Dumb bunny Doo-doo head Ding Dong Ding-a-ling Dork How about that "no name calling" rule? 8 in one post!
|
|
|
Post by steeler on Dec 9, 2012 19:57:06 GMT -8
*Do Your Own Due Diligence. One popular variation I just made up includes a third D in a row, for DYODDD. I think you can figure out what that one stands for. Dumb*ss Dillweed D*ckhead Dumb bunny Doo-doo head Ding Dong Ding-a-ling Dork Dude!
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2012 19:58:28 GMT -8
Uh, because TA does not work? Ever consider that possibility? Burn the heretic!
|
|
|
Post by roni on Dec 9, 2012 19:59:21 GMT -8
If no agreement is reached by 12/21 someone needs to order congress to stay in D.C. until the bitter end and keep attempting to problem solve. Wow. What a concept. The House leaders have said they will not adjourn without a resolution
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 20:00:20 GMT -8
Fundamentals and technicals are kinda hard to mix.
Particularly if you start adding bias (consciously or subconsciously) to technicals, which unlike EW, aren't supposed to be subjective...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 20:02:23 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 9, 2012 20:06:58 GMT -8
As it should be.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2012 20:15:17 GMT -8
Finally watched the Rock Center interview. Would have rather TC not done it. I fail to see what purpose it served. I agree. Ironically, that interview was a classic example of "going backwards in time by 20 to 30 years." The old model, honed by 60 Minutes over the years, of starting out with an agenda, and then editing a long interview to carve it into clips that fit that agenda. I've never understood why anyone would do an interview with 60 Minutes, or any similar program, unless the producers agreed to publish the interview in its entirety, uncut. So 20th Century. In the future, Cook should find a friendly Web-based interviewer and put the interview online. Why NBC? I'd never even heard of that show until it was mentioned in relation to the Cook interview. Can't get very good ratings. Come to think of it, I wonder why Cook didn't pick the much better rated 60 Minutes instead of Rock Center. Not like it could have been any worse?
|
|