|
Post by appledoc on Aug 18, 2018 3:54:26 GMT -8
Nice week!
TTM P/E is the highest that I can see since 2009. I think we'd all agree that there's been unwarranted suppression of the P/E over the last decade plus, but is this a new norm or are we setting up for a pullback?
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 522
|
Post by coma on Aug 18, 2018 4:00:00 GMT -8
. . . is this a new norm or are we setting up for a pullback? Yes . . .
|
|
|
Post by PikesPique on Aug 18, 2018 6:25:38 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Aug 18, 2018 7:14:27 GMT -8
Just my uninformed guess would be it increases volatility into the stock market?
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Aug 18, 2018 7:19:55 GMT -8
The challenges of huge data stream and processing... seem significant. Apple's chip design expertise could be significant. But, as the article points out this market is massive and auto manufacturers aren't overly exited about going proprietary. (Many certainly have been slow on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto adoption.) www.nytimes.com/2018/08/16/business/cars-internal-data-networks.htmlMac OS Services Summary: The flood of data produced by autonomous vehicles using sensors like Luminar’s lidar system is expected to overwhelm the decades-old networking technology used in most cars. The New York Times...“But when every new feature gets added, you add a new E.C.U. and a new layer of wiring,” said Jack Weast, the chief systems architect for autonomous driving solutions at Intel. ...A test drive through congested Manhattan streets with Austin Russell, chief executive of the lidar company Luminar, demonstrated just how much more data is going to be generated inside self-driving vehicles. Prowling the Upper West Side, a car fitted with Luminar’s lidar system, which uses near-infrared light to detect objects around it, created high-resolution scans of thousands of data points 10 times a second, painting a 3-D picture of cyclists, pedestrians, street vendors and even dogs up to 800 feet ahead. ...“You have to have ridiculous, super-human sensors to make up for the fact that computers aren’t nearly as smart as humans — and won’t be for a very, very long time,” said Austin Russell, chief executive of Luminar.CreditCayce Clifford for The New York Times “You have to have ridiculous, superhuman sensors to make up for the fact that computers aren’t nearly as smart as humans — and won’t be for a very, very long time,” said Mr. Russell, as the car’s sensor swept the crowded blocks ahead on Central Park West. ...That includes live information about road conditions, weather, objects around them, traffic and street signs — all of which has to be shared among components in the car and used to make split-second driving decisions. ...Experimental designs for self-driving cars use four or five lidar sensors, like this one from Luminar, in addition to a raft of other technologies.CreditCayce Clifford for The New York Times ...Although copper faces some challenges transmitting high-speed data over long distances, the lengths required in most cars are relatively short, and automakers have decades of experience working with it. ...But most current Ethernet networks typically have a top speed of 1 gigabit per second (Gbps) — not fast enough to handle the torrent of data that an autonomous vehicle would produce. ...“The CAN bus will be used for really basic stuff and LIN will control the horn or blinkers because the chips for those are really cheap,” said Mr. Hambrick, whose company builds autonomous car platforms, including the open-source Apollo platform from the Chinese firm Baidu. ...Most companies haven’t committed to particular types of cameras or lidar sensors for their future autonomous cars, so any new network will have to accommodate a variety of components.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Aug 18, 2018 10:44:59 GMT -8
The title is a bit misleading; the proposal is to eliminate two and make them semi-annual. Certainly, AFBers are very familiar with the FUD storms that can accompany these quarterly song and dance routines. Whether or not this would actually result in more forward looking planning is not entirely clear. Tim has repeatedly said that Apple is not run on the quarterly clock, and I believe him, but I am quite sure that many companies are. I have to wonder whether less transparency will only benefit the deceitful.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Aug 19, 2018 14:18:37 GMT -8
Looking at PED's Article "I s there a ceiling to Apple?" , I came across this quote: I did a quick search and found that the P/E ration for the S&P500 is 28.8. Oh, how I would love to have a P/E close to that.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
|
Post by 4aapl on Aug 19, 2018 17:33:54 GMT -8
|
|
ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
|
Post by ono on Aug 19, 2018 20:09:25 GMT -8
My hope is about $265. Jan 2020. (only 16 months away). With Apple making lots of buybacks along the way. And announcements of a 15%-20% increase in the dividend Ap 2019 (8/mo), and Ap 2020 (20/mo). A while back I postulated that Apple today has a rough plan to shift more to dividends to return capital at P/E of 23 to 25. I need to think more about employee stock awards and how that plays into planning. Apple uses employee stock incentives, and employees accrue dividends while the RSU's vest, being available at vesting. So, share price increase and dividends should help with retention. Hopefully employees like their new workspaces and campus. Edit: But months back, II thought it would take to December 2018 to reach $205,. and I was happy with that outlook.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Aug 19, 2018 21:25:50 GMT -8
Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. I don't see more p/e expansion unless Apple actually starts to increase iPhone sales beyond 8% consistently quarter over quarter. Most people are hanging on for longer periods and I think any growth at this time is due to a strong US and World economy. That is why people are willing to pay more for their phones.
I see 230 by end of year and 265 by end of 2019 barring any major hiccups.
What concerns me short term is China or some other unforeseen event like Nov. election or slow down in real estate. Any market correction will bring that p/e down in less then one or two weeks.
I don't buy that p/e is expanding because of services. I think it is expanding because of stock buybacks and steady dividend growth.
Presently we are way overbought with an RSI of 80.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Aug 19, 2018 21:47:03 GMT -8
I think the catalyst for any meaningful P/E expansion must be the announcement of a new product line. That's because iPhones/etc are pretty predictable at this point (I don't mean predictable regarding exact percentage of growth, but predictable in the sense that they aren't going to suddenly grow by 20-30% any time soon). But the "next new thing" ... THAT will cause all sorts of speculation and predictions and potential P/E expansion based on the excitement.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Aug 19, 2018 22:37:04 GMT -8
From my armchair... I think P/E is (will continue to) expanding because of sentiment. And that sentiment is fueled by a number of factors - services potential being one of them. I don’t see AAPL getting to a multiple of 28.8 in the foreseeable future. Low 20’s is my ebullient call.
$230 by EOY? Yeah, probably.
Again... from my armchair
|
|