Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 2:27:58 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Sept 5, 2018 3:27:29 GMT -8
From the WSJ article:
I hate comments like this. Oh, none of the other products have had a similar impact as the greatest consumer item of all time? Shocking!
I would urge people not to focus on the AMZN vs AAPL talk. It's silly. Amazon is not an Apple competitor despite what others may say. I actually think it would be better for AMZN to take the market cap lead so the talk can go away shortly after.
For those who hate AMZN, I recommend you just buy some shares. Makes all the AMZN talk more digestible when you're profiting off it.
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Post by elmar on Sept 5, 2018 3:59:44 GMT -8
... For those who hate AMZN, I recommend you just buy some shares. Makes all the AMZN talk more digestible when you're profiting off it. That is exactly what I did several months ago. It is really very helpful even if it is only a small percentage of your portfolio. I am now much more relaxed when reading about AMZN. I can only highly recommend it.
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Post by incorrigible on Sept 5, 2018 4:58:19 GMT -8
... For those who hate AMZN, I recommend you just buy some shares. Makes all the AMZN talk more digestible when you're profiting off it. That is exactly what I did several months ago. It is really very helpful even if it is only a small percentage of your portfolio. I am now much more relaxed when reading about AMZN. I can only highly recommend it. I agree. I've been floating this idea for a while now. I just can't pull the trigger.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 5:03:37 GMT -8
I view AMZN vs AAPL much like I view MSFT vs AAPL.
Mr Market gives both AMZN and MSFT more credit than I think is due -- and lets both slide when inconvenient facts get in the way.
Meanwhile, AAPL is (and always has been) regularly criticized beyond reason. Any move by a competitor is viewed as the imminent death knell. AAPL has been pronounced dead or dying so many times I couldn't even catalogue them. That's OK. As long as I see value the market doesn't perceive there is significant upside.
I am prepared to trust my judgment. Hasn't failed me yet.
Besides if one compares the companies on the basis of the numbers. It's a no brainer.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 5, 2018 5:46:04 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$229.67All Time Highest TODAY intraday + 1 TRILLION! 1,109,289 PILES OF ONE MILLION DOLLARS
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 5, 2018 7:56:48 GMT -8
I view AMZN vs AAPL much like I view MSFT vs AAPL. Mr Market gives both AMZN and MSFT more credit than I think is due -- and lets both slide when inconvenient facts get in the way. Meanwhile, AAPL is (and always has been) regularly criticized beyond reason. Any move by a competitor is viewed as the imminent death knell. AAPL has been pronounced dead or dying so many times I couldn't even catalogue them. That's OK. As long as I see value the market doesn't perceive there is significant upside. I really feel marketshare fits into this. With the Mac a few years back, if only 10% of people used Macs, then roughly 90% didn't, and for the most part didn't see the value in using a Mac. Thus they also likely didn't see that value in the stock. The iPhone marketshare mix is a lot better, but too much has been made over the mac vs pc, or iPhone vs Android, market. That polarizes people. But what's the competition to Amazon? Or Google or Netflix, for that matter? Does someone actually feel so negatively towards Amazon that they don't use it, and diss it anytime they can? I'd assume there's some fringe about not wanting to use it because it's so big, and because they can track things. And some people don't like the delivery vans, or if they have a business that Amazon is felt to be cutting into. But by and large, I don't see a lot of negativity about the company. Conversely, I have had some bad experiences. 3 times I have ordered a hard-hat brim, item OCC-899 in blue. 3 times I have gotten the wrong thing, first in high visibility yellow, and then the wrong but similar item, OCC-898. I chatted with an Amazon person from Costa Rica, and he said he'd put a note on it to get the right one. They rushed it here on Sunday of Labor Day Weekend. And I opened the box to find the 3rd wrong one. Likewise, I bought a small engine tachometer to tune my chainsaws to get peak power when using an Alaskan Chainsaw Mill. There's a few choices, and this one said it had a replaceable battery, but what arrived didn't. Likely just a listing mistake instead of the wrong one. But when ordering water pressure regulators, that came to my advantage of being able to pick up ones that retail for $100-$150 for $20-$30. They listed the right part number, but had the wrong picture, and then no reviews yet even though they had been there for years. With dynamic pricing from the amazon warehouse, they had slowly dropped to absurdly low prices. At the same time, the underlying issue of having wrong info across a swath of items remained. And then there were the kids Halloween costumes that arrived on the promised day, but sometime after we left for the party at 6pm. We didn't yet realize their "delivery day" went all the way to 9pm. All that is to say Amazon is not perfect. And really, it's a lot of energy and waste to be able to get a tachometer that's smaller than an iPhone delivered by itself in a large box, a day or two after ordering it. But do I hate them? Or does anyone? Not really. On the investment side, I believe the last time I bought Amazon was to fill a short earlier in the day, back when it first crossed $100 in 1999 or so. That just means that similar to Netflix or myriad other stocks, I missed out on a lot of potential gains. That happens, though I kick myself a lot more for those ones that gained 10x in a year back in '97. Still, it's the crash of the PE that tends to occur at some point, often in the move of the stock from growth to value, that really gets me. I have been crushed too many times while AAPL did that to get to where it is now. Too often it seems that these big companies have a great fall (in stock price through multiplier reduction) when making that switchover, and so it's not a matter of if it will happen but when. And more likely it will be a fall when the stock or market is already pushed down, instead of just a slow attrition of multiplier while gains in earnings offset the change to keep the stock flat or even up. Overall I like Amazon. I do wonder what their moat is, sometimes order much cheaper things straight from overseas on places like wish.com or lightinthebox, and see their "shipping cost built in for free shipping" when comparing things like car parts with a place like RockAuto.com. I personally think AMZN will fall some at some point (sound familiar?), but that will likely wait until Amazon fumbles something, or there is a marketwide downturn. It's that sort of catalyst that gets the reset going, but there can be a lot of profit before that happens, either with the multiplier increasing or with earnings increasing. So I don't see a lot to dislike about Amazon or AMZN, except possibly the multiplier. But the multiplier is made possible by the love of the company and stock, and without the "haters" that can stay higher...possibly for a long time. (Cramer's article also pointed out AMZN was being valued differently, using the Total Addressable Market. www.cnbc.com/2018/09/04/cramer-amazon-hitting-1-trillion-is-about-more-than-just-the-company.html )
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 8:16:51 GMT -8
I have a ton of respect for Amazon... and purchase through them frequently.
My issue with Amazon is value. At the end of the day, Amazon's core business is retail -- a notoriously low margin, highly competitive industry. Indeed one could argue the internet increases retail competition exponentially. It is easy these days to find a lower price and it's not always on Amazon.
Many Amazon bulls see it as some sort of natural monopoly. While the juggernaut may rise for a long time to come, I don't see it prevailing in the long run. As 4aapl noted I do wonder what their moat is. Of course, the long run can take a long, long time to realize.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 8:21:23 GMT -8
And AAPL is GREEN again...
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 12:56:27 GMT -8
That GREEN was all to short lived. The good news is RSI dropped to 80.33.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 5, 2018 13:05:04 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 5, 2018 13:24:51 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 5, 2018 21:09:43 GMT -8
I view AMZN vs AAPL much like I view MSFT vs AAPL. Mr Market gives both AMZN and MSFT more credit than I think is due -- and lets both slide when inconvenient facts get in the way. Meanwhile, AAPL is (and always has been) regularly criticized beyond reason. Any move by a competitor is viewed as the imminent death knell. AAPL has been pronounced dead or dying so many times I couldn't even catalogue them. That's OK. As long as I see value the market doesn't perceive there is significant upside. I am prepared to trust my judgment. Hasn't failed me yet. Besides if one compares the companies on the basis of the numbers. It's a no brainer.As I've stated previously on this board, I'm not very interested in following many of the commonly accepted "rules" for investing in the stock market: Diversification-No, percentage limits for individual stocks in one's portfolio-No...but that one about "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results" always seemed to make sense to me. I, like many of us on the board, are invested in Apple primarily because of the fundamentals of the company; but AMZN seems to have many people deciding they've missed out and are now buying the stock hoping to benefit from continuing increases in the share price and, for that reason, I hope it continues. Additionally, my younger son, 46 years old, has worked for Amazon since the stock was around $400/share and has been granted a substantial number of shares over the years so, as you can imagine, he's pretty excited about the tremendous gains AMZN has seen. So for that additional reason, I hope those gains continue_but like you, Since84, I'm prepared to trust my judgment...and luck. Note: When I reread my post this morning I realized it appeared I only hoped AMZN continued to climb because my son works there. Not so. Cheers to the board members who are also long AMZN.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Sept 5, 2018 22:59:02 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 6, 2018 1:34:56 GMT -8
LOL From Forbes. Where else? Malcolm must be rolling in his grave...
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