Since84
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 2:26:40 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 10, 2018 3:29:22 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 4:11:33 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 4:27:43 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 5:56:58 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Sept 10, 2018 6:08:58 GMT -8
I only have a headline, but perhaps some of the weakness this morning could be attributed to a downgrade from a firm I never heard of...
On September 10, 2018 Ned Davis Research Group downgraded APPLE INC ( AAPL ) from BUY to NEUTRAL.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 6:36:58 GMT -8
It's more likely AAPL rose too far too fast. I'm happy to work out some of the excess (pun intended) and reestablish a 'normal' upward trend.
The good news is the recent spike may serve to increase the trajectory a bit. Also at $216.72, RSI is 53.51. We can go up from here...
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Post by sponge on Sept 10, 2018 6:50:48 GMT -8
It's more likely AAPL rose too far too fast. I'm happy to work out some of the excess (pun intended) and reestablish a 'normal' upward trend. The good news is the recent spike may serve to increase the trajectory a bit. Also at $216.72, RSI is 53.51. We can go up from here... I kind of share that view. We seem to have gone below the 20MDA which is a concern. The next line is 213. If we break that then we could see 207 and if we break that, we have a good chance to fill the gap from earnings. Then PED would have write a story about how many are underwater with their price targets. I think we can forget 225 however by Wed. I see us moving side ways for the next two weeks before the other shoe drops. Warren Buffet will be ready to buy when there is blood in the streets.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 10, 2018 6:50:59 GMT -8
IMHO, there was a definite sell-off in the final hour last Friday, which I interpreted as an attempt (obviously successful) by the Big Boys to drive the price of AAPL down before this week's event. I am not surprised to see it continuing this week. Let's see what things look like a week from now.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 10, 2018 7:06:30 GMT -8
It's more likely AAPL rose too far too fast. I'm happy to work out some of the excess (pun intended) and reestablish a 'normal' upward trend. The good news is the recent spike may serve to increase the trajectory a bit. Also at $216.72, RSI is 53.51. We can go up from here... I kind of share that view. We seem to have gone below the 20MDA which is a concern. The next line is 213. If we break that then we could see 207 and if we break that, we have a good chance to fill the gap from earnings. Then PED would have write a story about how many are underwater with their price targets. I think we can forget 225 however by Wed. I see us moving side ways for the next two weeks before the other shoe drops. Warren Buffet will be ready to buy when there is blood in the streets. It looks like this year matches the broad stroke of the last 5 years, with a relative peak at the start of September, as the hype mill hypes. Though really it doesn't seem like there's been that much hype, other than people excited about naming. "What's in a name....a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And at the same time, it's not like any of us could change the name. Why worry about something like that, except maybe if it were to be named something so offensive as to lose marketshare. On the plus side, I believe (looked at it a month ago) in 4 of the last 5 years that relative peak was overwritten within 1 to 3 months. So while the short term timing point has been passed, the longer term placement should be fine, assuming a few things such as the overall market not going negative (which will happen sometime, but I don't see for at least another 6-12 months).
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Post by sponge on Sept 10, 2018 7:10:54 GMT -8
I kind of share that view. We seem to have gone below the 20MDA which is a concern. The next line is 213. If we break that then we could see 207 and if we break that, we have a good chance to fill the gap from earnings. Then PED would have write a story about how many are underwater with their price targets. I think we can forget 225 however by Wed. I see us moving side ways for the next two weeks before the other shoe drops. Warren Buffet will be ready to buy when there is blood in the streets. It looks like this year matches the broad stroke of the last 5 years, with a relative peak at the start of September, as the hype mill hypes. Though really it doesn't seem like there's been that much hype, other than people excited about naming. "What's in a name....a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And at the same time, it's not like any of us could change the name. Why worry about something like that, except maybe if it were to be named something so offensive as to lose marketshare. On the plus side, I believe (looked at it a month ago) in 4 of the last 5 years that relative peak was overwritten within 1 to 3 months. So while the short term timing point has been passed, the longer term placement should be fine, assuming a few things such as the overall market not going negative (which will happen sometime, but I don't see for at least another 6-12 months). Noticed the same pattern. What is exciting is that we could see another move like we did in February or even from May to August. Those with cash will make a killing by Dec.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 10, 2018 8:24:20 GMT -8
Though really it doesn't seem like there's been that much hype, other than people excited about naming. "What's in a name....a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And at the same time, it's not like any of us could change the name. Why worry about something like that, except maybe if it were to be named something so offensive as to lose marketshare. As one who has posted criticism of the rumored names, I agree that the names are unlikely to be any kind of factor in the sales results. I just don't care for any of the rumored options, and this is one of the few groups of people who share my fanaticism about Apple/AAPL enough to give me feedback I would value. Thanks for yours.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Sept 10, 2018 9:34:25 GMT -8
Some context...
The low (so far) of today's trading range was $216.47. That's all of $13.20 off of the ATH of $229.67. That's a correction of barely 6%.
I'm not at all disturbed by the recent price action. I'm happy to see RSI drop to a much more reasonable range -- currently about 56.
It positions APPL well for the next leg of the run.
Meanwhile economic indicators are great. Consumer sentiment is fantastic. It is shaping up to be a very nice Fall quarter. I'm anxious to see what Apple has in store for us on Wednesday.
😊
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Post by elmar on Sept 10, 2018 10:50:03 GMT -8
... It positions APPL well for the next leg of the run. Meanwhile economic indicators are great. Consumer sentiment is fantastic. It is shaping up to be a very nice Fall quarter. I'm anxious to see what Apple has in store for us on Wednesday. 😊 I tend to agree very much, but j just have no idea how much negative influence can come from Trump and China...
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Post by pauls on Sept 10, 2018 11:37:55 GMT -8
Spent last 2 quarters’ dividends today on more shares. We might be in for more pain, dry powder at the ready (like Apple!)! I’m hating the tariff war being waged with twitterific bluster. Art of the deal my ass!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 10, 2018 11:41:00 GMT -8
I think the distraction of messing with trade policies will be short lived and inconsequential. It might enable bears to spark a short sell-off, but how far can it drop with Apple and Buffett buying everything in sight? I see a strong fall with all the new products followed by hopefully, the beginning of the enthusiasm over upcoming 5G phones.
I know I keep beating this drum, but each year iPhone users exchange about 1/3 of their phones for new models (Someone correct this is i am wrong, it was the best i could find). As mobile 5G takes hold, who is going to be happy with a 4G? How many people bought 3G phones after 4G phones were available? Certainly there may be some for whom the low cost makes them say 4G is good enough for a while, but those are not Apple users. This is making me believe that we are going to see iPhone upgrades far beyond the normal cycle. Double the demand doesn't seem unreasonable to me and that is just with existing Apple users.
This probably won't be fully in place until early 2020, but I am amazed that analysts are not anticipating it in their estimates. In my mind this should be pulling the stock price up far more than the fictional "super cycle"
And yet......crickets.
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Post by sponge on Sept 10, 2018 12:11:33 GMT -8
I think the distraction of messing with trade policies will be short lived and inconsequential. It might enable bears to spark a short sell-off, but how far can it drop with Apple and Buffett buying everything in sight? I see a strong fall with all the new products followed by hopefully, the beginning of the enthusiasm over upcoming 5G phones. I know I keep beating this drum, but each year iPhone users exchange about 1/3 of their phones for new models (Someone correct this is i am wrong, it was the best i could find). As mobile 5G takes hold, who is going to be happy with a 4G? How many people bought 3G phones after 4G phones were available? Certainly there may be some for whom the low cost makes them say 4G is good enough for a while, but those are not Apple users. This is making me believe that we are going to see iPhone upgrades far beyond the normal cycle. Double the demand doesn't seem unreasonable to me and that is just with existing Apple users. This probably won't be fully in place until early 2020, but I am amazed that analysts are not anticipating it in their estimates. In my mind this should be pulling the stock price up far more than the fictional "super cycle" And yet......crickets. I think we are far from the first real trade wars. Trump will follow thru and the Chinese will not be rolled over easily. Remember the Chinese plan 100 years in advance. They have developed a good system that benefits them and they won't just go along with a change in tarriffs. A significant increase in iPhone prices will impact sales in China more then here. Their people can suffer as a result more then our politicians here.. They may even We can see some serious stock corrections. It may come this fall or next year. The increase in iPhone prices of 20% is all about nothing. We are at least 7 years away from being able to manufcture the iPhone here. But there is plenty more that Apple can build here. The only short term data one can count on is earnings about how is Apple impacted. As long as guidance is moving up yoy we will be fine for at least 6 months. Something WS will sell off by simply moving the goal posts about certain data points. All it takes on quarter of softer services or wearables and WS will scream the sky is falling. Right now all indications are that the economy is doing well and so will Apple.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 10, 2018 13:11:48 GMT -8
Though really it doesn't seem like there's been that much hype, other than people excited about naming. "What's in a name....a rose by any other name would smell as sweet." And at the same time, it's not like any of us could change the name. Why worry about something like that, except maybe if it were to be named something so offensive as to lose marketshare. As one who has posted criticism of the rumored names, I agree that the names are unlikely to be any kind of factor in the sales results. I just don't care for any of the rumored options, and this is one of the few groups of people who share my fanaticism about Apple/AAPL enough to give me feedback I would value. Thanks for yours. I'm not against people worrying about them. I've just mostly not bothered even opening links about it, since I can't change it, and it isn't likely to majorly affect the product or stock. At one time I enjoyed spending part of my day reading about rumored specs on upcoming products. At times it was even entertaining, mainly while working on some of those products and knowing the actual timeline and features/specs/code names, or what have you. But these days it seems like I always have a laundry list of things to do, and so I try to not worry about things I have no control over, and that really don't affect me. That's not to say I don't spend countless hours on things that don't matter. This morning I polished and waxed out some marks on our friend's car she just bought. But really, that gave me great satisfaction, and it being her first car, which she bought with her hard earned money, I like to think that she will enjoy it even more too. I'll let her name it. And I'm not even going to worry about that, either.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 10, 2018 15:19:10 GMT -8
I'll let her name it. And I'm not even going to worry about that, either. I'm not at all "worried" about the names. I believe that they could name the three models Hamburger, Hot Dog, and French Fries and they would still sell like hotcakes. It's a question of aesthetics, which is something that has always distinguished Apple's products from the competition's, along with ease of use. No big deal, but I didn't realize that discussion on AFB had to meet a significance test. Could have fooled me.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 10, 2018 15:37:50 GMT -8
I'm not at all "worried" about the names. I believe that they could name the three models Hamburger, Hot Dog, and French Fries and they would still sell like hotcakes. It's a question of aesthetics, which is something that has always distinguished Apple's products from the competition's, along with ease of use. No big deal, but I didn't realize that discussion on AFB had to meet a significance test. Could have fooled me. I think you've got it all wrong. I have no problem with people discussing names that will be announced in a couple days, here or elsewhere. But this time around, I've stayed away from the discussion, here or elsewhere, since I don't think my thoughts on it wouldn't affect anything. I look forward to hearing of the product announcement in the coming days, though not just for the name but also the specs, pricing, and look/feel. Colors were mentioned, and that could be a good thing. What pushed us to buy my wife's was it coming out in RED. Of course, Apple could combat any inventory issues by having most colors/styles in stores, but having a few that are off the online store only (though could be delivered to an Apple store in short order, if preferred). But I suppose that's pointless too.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 11, 2018 8:09:17 GMT -8
I'm not against people worrying about them. I've just mostly not bothered even opening links about it, since I can't change it, and it isn't likely to majorly affect the product or stock. So you only bother to read Apple articles about things you can change? Either you have great connections at Apple, or you don't open many links to Apple stories.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 11, 2018 11:08:45 GMT -8
I'm not against people worrying about them. I've just mostly not bothered even opening links about it, since I can't change it, and it isn't likely to majorly affect the product or stock. So you only bother to read Apple articles about things you can change? Either you have great connections at Apple, or you don't open many links to Apple stories. It seems like you missed the second part of my statement, "and it isn't likely to majorly affect the product or stock". While I do have some former connections, and years ago was able to get JMP to the right people when he was having kernel panics on that huge eight 30" screen setup he had, that's probably about the extent of it. I'd probably have more luck getting Apple to change something because I have owned shares for over 2 decades, than due to my inconsequential years there. But finding out details via rumors, that may or may not be true, really only matters if you are potentially going to do something with that info. You'd have to decide for yourself how accurate you think those rumors are. Personally, I don't plan on making a decision on if I should continue to hold my shares or I should sell them off based off of a rumor on the names. With 3 kids, I have much more fulfilling things to do than read an article that doesn't affect me or give me knowledge on or of something. Likewise, I also try to never fall for the clickbait of the latest celebrity gossip, or some of the articles constantly put out there by certain article writers (Gordon) on how Apple is constantly on it's death kneel. But while I don't have a problem with others reading them, or discussing them, I guess I just don't understand your displeasure in my lack of interest.
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