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Post by terps530 on Dec 13, 2012 7:11:38 GMT -8
Speaking of Greg...my understanding is that he is over at Braeburn, no? But out of curiosity - does that prevent him from being here as well...or does he simply choose not to? I don't know if there are "special rules" over there. Just asking. Phoebes, he became agitated here and deleted his account if I remember correctly. I know I questioned his Jan spread position 655/675 if I remember correctly. He was talking about Apple internal numbers again and started hearing about it. There is no rule about dual membership, there are many here who are members of both. Yea... It's too bad because his input was always appreciated. People now are a bit more mellow to being down at this level now, but it was quite fresh and had everyone on nerves. Greg was determined from the Put/Call ratio that instiutional selling ended a while ago and they have been buying since October (I think since 600-615ish), He had a lot of great data, but did not like being challenged, and I think with Apple continuously tanking, it was too much for him to stick around. Maybe he'll come back when things get better
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 13, 2012 7:23:24 GMT -8
Looks like we could go to 550 here - fingers crossed Unfortunately it really needs to crack that 536 level - with momentum first
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 7:26:29 GMT -8
terps, you nailed it, he did not like to be challenged, like some others in the past. He had no reason to be agitated because he said he got out at 700. I could only dream of the "what if". Over the years there have been many people who resented being challenged, like they were superior anonymous internet beings. One thing I always respected about Tommo, when challenged, he had the goods to back it up. There are several here who are hurting (hand raised), keeping things cordial is a must, but mindful of others pain is also a must. I hope we all get through this.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 7:28:04 GMT -8
Looks like we could go to 550 here - fingers crossed Phoebes, I ran out of things to cross.
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Post by sponge on Dec 13, 2012 7:37:46 GMT -8
Gregg left Braeburn group as well.
I miss his insights. No one is ever correct predicting the future stock price, so I don't fault him for his bullish stance. This stock has burned plenty of short term buyers.
He did provide valuable analysis supporting Apple's long term strategy and growth relative to Android and Windows.
Our stock today has rebounded. My gut says this is the low from which we will slowly recover.
The rebound post Jan 1 and earnings will be very quick and large. The only challenge is that the damage is so extensive that even after $150 move up we would still be trading at a discount.
I should note that Robert does not see a big move in the stock until July earnings.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 7:48:58 GMT -8
I should note that Robert does not see a big move in the stock until July earnings. Quantify the big move if you could please sponge. Are we talking new ATH?
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Post by Lstream on Dec 13, 2012 7:50:58 GMT -8
Speaking of Greg...my understanding is that he is over at Braeburn, no? But out of curiosity - does that prevent him from being here as well...or does he simply choose not to? I don't know if there are "special rules" over there. Just asking. I am a member at both places. Not a problem.
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Post by seaurchinroe on Dec 13, 2012 7:54:04 GMT -8
I should note that Robert does not see a big move in the stock until July earnings. Sponge, I thought he was expecting a revisit to ATH's in late January / early February. From his Posts at Eventide December 1, 2012 post: "...I expect the share price to retrace lost ground over the next sixty days and for the share price to revisit its all-time high soon after the release of December quarter results in late January." Moving back to ATH's within two months from the circles of hell we are in seems like a big move to me. Is he expecting something even bigger in July?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 13, 2012 8:00:06 GMT -8
I miss Greg's contribution as well. He was one of the few who looked beyond patterns to underlying causes. Perhaps we can learn a lesson from his loss. It is fine to question someone as to why they claim something, it is even better to extend their theory or offer an alternative, but "challenge"? Not so much. When you feel that something is incorrect, phrase the correction so it is specific and directed at the subject matter not the person. In other words, be nice. If you cannot be nice, be precise.
Greg, if you read this, come back
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 8:08:08 GMT -8
See member list: GreggThurman
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Post by sponge on Dec 13, 2012 8:34:57 GMT -8
I should note that Robert does not see a big move in the stock until July earnings. Sponge, I thought he was expecting a revisit to ATH's in late January / early February. From his Posts at Eventide December 1, 2012 post: "...I expect the share price to retrace lost ground over the next sixty days and for the share price to revisit its all-time high soon after the release of December quarter results in late January." Moving back to ATH's within two months from the circles of hell we are in seems like a big move to me. Is he expecting something even bigger in July? Going back over $700 is not a big deal in February since we were there in Sept. Most were looking at $800+ by Feb. I still think we have a 50/50 for $800+ by end of March. But we can suffer under $700 for the first 3 months. He sees $900+ by end of Summer. So if we stay around $700 for the next 8 months, then the big upward move would take place much later in the year. That's his more bearish view.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 13, 2012 8:42:11 GMT -8
QCOM backs off attack on one of their biggest customers. HERE
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Post by seaurchinroe on Dec 13, 2012 8:50:42 GMT -8
Sponge, thanks for the clarification.
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Post by Big Al on Dec 13, 2012 8:50:55 GMT -8
Sponge, I thought he was expecting a revisit to ATH's in late January / early February. From his Posts at Eventide December 1, 2012 post: "...I expect the share price to retrace lost ground over the next sixty days and for the share price to revisit its all-time high soon after the release of December quarter results in late January." Moving back to ATH's within two months from the circles of hell we are in seems like a big move to me. Is he expecting something even bigger in July? Going back over $700 is not a big deal in February since we were there in Sept. Most were looking at $800+ by Feb. I still think we have a 50/50 for $800+ by end of March. But we can suffer under $700 for the first 3 months. He sees $900+ by end of Summer. So if we stay around $700 for the next 8 months, then the big upward move would take place much later in the year. That's his more bearish view. Actually, after the last few weeks, I would be happy with 600 in January.
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Post by kloot on Dec 13, 2012 9:47:59 GMT -8
Actually, after the last few weeks, I would be happy with 600 in January. +1 this bites.
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Post by lance on Dec 13, 2012 9:59:26 GMT -8
AAPL may have lowest close in 10 months if it closes below 525. That would not be good.
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Post by bribery on Dec 13, 2012 9:59:57 GMT -8
just greeted $528.74. we're going downnn
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Post by Lstream on Dec 13, 2012 10:01:52 GMT -8
I miss Greg's contribution as well. He was one of the few who looked beyond patterns to underlying causes. Perhaps we can learn a lesson from his loss. It is fine to question someone as to why they claim something, it is even better to extend their theory or offer an alternative, but "challenge"? Not so much. When you feel that something is incorrect, phrase the correction so it is specific and directed at the subject matter not the person. In other words, be nice. If you cannot be nice, be precise. Greg, if you read this, come back Greg should come back, but all posters need to have a thick skin. It is a common theme on Internet forums for people to run off in a huff or pout if there ideas are challenged. The last thing we need is places like this to have all the edges worn off because we are tip toeing around and being politically correct. Honestly, I don't think Greg was treated that badly.
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Post by rickag on Dec 13, 2012 10:04:45 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Dec 13, 2012 10:12:12 GMT -8
I miss Greg's contribution as well. He was one of the few who looked beyond patterns to underlying causes. Perhaps we can learn a lesson from his loss. It is fine to question someone as to why they claim something, it is even better to extend their theory or offer an alternative, but "challenge"? Not so much. When you feel that something is incorrect, phrase the correction so it is specific and directed at the subject matter not the person. In other words, be nice. If you cannot be nice, be precise. Greg, if you read this, come back I don't think anyone here attacked him personally. It was the subject matter that was challenged. I did appreciate his insights but the true value is in listening to and rebutting the critiques. That's how we all learn and develop ideas and opinions. Gregg did not believe in being challenged. To his credit he simply left without making a big deal about it, but his leaving was not the fault of anybody here.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 13, 2012 10:20:45 GMT -8
Obviously Google have not reintroduced their free map app because they are feeling charitable but to make money. After installing the app, I had to go six levels deep to switch off 'Location data collection". In case others installed the app and don't want to send Google their data: Google Maps opens with a stark reminder about one of the primary subjects in the custody battle between Apple and Google – user data. It boots up with a pre-filled checkbox that authorizes the app to send anonymous location back to Google to help it improve traffic and other services. You can of course opt out of it, but the page is slightly misleading. The “Accept & Continue” button refers to agreeing to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, but the check mark seems to imply that it’s required. If you already authorized the data collection and want to disable it, you can, but it’s buried deep within the app. You’ll need to click on the person icon, then the settings gear, “About, terms & privacy”, “Terms & privacy”, “Location data collection”. What is the proper avenue to complain about this to Apple? They should't accept the app with such misleading/confusing terms.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 13, 2012 10:21:14 GMT -8
Sponge, I thought he was expecting a revisit to ATH's in late January / early February. From his Posts at Eventide December 1, 2012 post: "...I expect the share price to retrace lost ground over the next sixty days and for the share price to revisit its all-time high soon after the release of December quarter results in late January." Moving back to ATH's within two months from the circles of hell we are in seems like a big move to me. Is he expecting something even bigger in July? Going back over $700 is not a big deal in February since we were there in Sept. Most were looking at $800+ by Feb. I still think we have a 50/50 for $800+ by end of March. But we can suffer under $700 for the first 3 months. He sees $900+ by end of Summer. So if we stay around $700 for the next 8 months, then the big upward move would take place much later in the year. That's his more bearish view. Sponge: This is not a loaded question but What is your success ratio of being right? Would anyone agree with your answer?(now that may be loaded :-) )
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 10:33:13 GMT -8
526 > 521 > 518 > 505
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Post by po1nt on Dec 13, 2012 10:50:27 GMT -8
526 is also where our trend line is from 505/517/522. Hoping that holds.
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Post by pauls on Dec 13, 2012 11:00:09 GMT -8
QCOM backs off attack on one of their biggest customers. HEREBizarre little episode.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 13, 2012 11:01:44 GMT -8
QCOM backs off attack on one of their biggest customers. HEREBizarre little episode. Someone will probably be losing their job over that blunder.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 13, 2012 11:09:22 GMT -8
I miss Greg's contribution as well. He was one of the few who looked beyond patterns to underlying causes. Perhaps we can learn a lesson from his loss. It is fine to question someone as to why they claim something, it is even better to extend their theory or offer an alternative, but "challenge"? Not so much. When you feel that something is incorrect, phrase the correction so it is specific and directed at the subject matter not the person. In other words, be nice. If you cannot be nice, be precise. Greg, if you read this, come back Greg should come back, but all posters need to have a thick skin. It is a common theme on Internet forums for people to run off in a huff or pout if there ideas are challenged. The last thing we need is places like this to have all the edges worn off because we are tip toeing around and being politically correct. Honestly, I don't think Greg was treated that badly. I agree and would like Gregg to come back!
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Post by sponge on Dec 13, 2012 11:16:13 GMT -8
Going back over $700 is not a big deal in February since we were there in Sept. Most were looking at $800+ by Feb. I still think we have a 50/50 for $800+ by end of March. But we can suffer under $700 for the first 3 months. He sees $900+ by end of Summer. So if we stay around $700 for the next 8 months, then the big upward move would take place much later in the year. That's his more bearish view. Sponge: This is not a loaded question but What is your success ratio of being right? Would anyone agree with your answer?(now that may be loaded :-) ) For short term less then 6 months my track record is awful. Long term I am pretty close. I saw $600 by end of 2012 in 2009. I see $900 in 12 months. Check back then to see if that holds up. Our stock is getting killed and I will get a margin call today. No worries. We will recover by Monday. I think there are still plenty of margin calls keeping the stock down. We will come back after Jan 1. Tax sales have given the funds who sold around 650 plenty of time and great profits. We must be patient.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 13, 2012 11:25:03 GMT -8
Sponge: This is not a loaded question but What is your success ratio of being right? Would anyone agree with your answer?(now that may be loaded :-) ) For short term less then 6 months my track record is awful. Long term I am pretty close. I saw $600 by end of 2012 in 2009. I see $900 in 12 months. Check back then to see if that holds up. Our stock is getting killed and I will get a margin call today. No worries. We will recover by Monday. I think there are still plenty of margin calls keeping the stock down. We will come back after Jan 1. Tax sales have given the funds who sold around 650 plenty of time and great profits. We must be patient. Thanks and hope your are right. 900 will make this a bad distant memory.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 13, 2012 11:28:12 GMT -8
Our stock is getting killed and I will get a margin call today. No worries. We will recover by Monday. I think there are still plenty of margin calls keeping the stock down. As my sig says: Price is a function of liquidity, not fundamental value. Once you wrap your head around that concept then AAPL's moves are far easier to explain without having to resort to all manner of conspiracy theories and convenient stories.
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