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Post by terps530 on Dec 14, 2012 6:12:45 GMT -8
hmm i thought things were slowing down and selling was drying up after watching the last two days...
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 14, 2012 6:14:52 GMT -8
Going to be really ugly today IMHO. Best case is a hard drop (high volume) and capitulation (again) early on. If I remember correctly, didn't someone have a chart showing who are the sellers/buyers based on the size of the blocks? Also didn't this chart show retail (blocks of less the 10K) doing most of the selling and institutions (larger blocks) doing the buying? If so, kinda flies in the face of the long held claim that retail investors aren't able to significantly move the stock. Not 100% sure about that chart but I believe that's what I saw among the vast numbers of charts I've looked at in the past 2 weeks. WAG: Today is the last big flush. Then we start moving up into earnings. Positive news on China and the FC is resolved by kicking the can or a deal. But today will be ugly before it gets better. A retest of 505 is on tap. At this rate, we may retest in the PM.
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Post by bernard on Dec 14, 2012 6:19:49 GMT -8
the trailing PE is 11.7 in PM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 14, 2012 6:20:21 GMT -8
10 trading days left in year 17 days left in the year 24 trading days approx until earnings. 38 days until earnings
help me (obi wan kanobi) earnings. You are my only hope.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 14, 2012 6:20:57 GMT -8
Possibly a foolish move, but just gone long at 514.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 14, 2012 6:24:03 GMT -8
News dissection:
Fiscal cliff excuse. From what I am reading, tax issues are not a big deal as the market is saying. (I have not done the math... just repeating what I have read.) Nevertheless, market has an excuse to manipulate and others follow.
Patents. (no idea -- not read the links)
Missiles to Turkey ? This is a bigger deal.
Finally, Friday expiration.
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Post by roni on Dec 14, 2012 6:25:12 GMT -8
I am thinking of picking up a few more shares for my dividend portfolio.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 14, 2012 6:28:25 GMT -8
alright if the consensus is that down here it has to go to 505 to retest and then bounce, everyone would have orders, either puts/short here to cash out at 505ish, or calls/long orders at 505 to 'get the bottom'
So the way this would screw over the above would be: if it hits 505, its going lower after. it doesnt get near 505, and goes up from here.
lets see if opposite theory works :/
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Post by frqntflr on Dec 14, 2012 6:29:26 GMT -8
have to get this off my chest ...
the negative sentiment towards all things Apple has lately been off the charts!!!!
aside from the usual Apple haters (they've always been around and a pretty vocal bunch), we're now seeing everyone that doesn't firmly have positive views on Apple come out solidly in the opposing camp ... the negative commentary is no longer just capitalizing on factual data that's not positive for Apple but jumping all over made up stories based on nothing more than BS
it seems like the Maps fiasco (and you've really got to call it that regardless of your actual opinion of the app itself) was a pivot for the huge negative sentiment rise the past few months ... Apple management has to take full responsibility for the huge publicity disaster this has turned out to be
i've heard all the issues surrounding margin, lack of SJ aura, tax-based selling, etc.
the reality is that we're approaching what few believe will be anything but a record earnings report with highest ever revenue and total profits ... and we're down almost $200 points ... how many of us remember when AAPL at $200 seemed like the answer to all our retirement dreams?
let's be thankful we're solidly up year-over-year ... and call me when this death march is over, i've got better things to do
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Post by wheeles on Dec 14, 2012 6:39:21 GMT -8
Possibly a foolish move, but just gone long at 514. I'm often an early mover, and this case is no different. However, as happened yesterday, we could have got a rip higher in the few minutes prior to the open. Now we have climbed higher, how high do we go? I'm thinking possibly 530.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 14, 2012 6:41:56 GMT -8
pick up another option now or EOD..tough call...
I have a good feeling about next week. Max pain is WAY above us. Max put at 500. max call at 600. And another week closer to the big show..
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Post by fas550 on Dec 14, 2012 6:50:06 GMT -8
have to get this off my chest ... the negative sentiment towards all things Apple has lately been off the charts!!!! aside from the usual Apple haters (they've always been around and a pretty vocal bunch), we're now seeing everyone that doesn't firmly have positive views on Apple come out solidly in the opposing camp ... the negative commentary is no longer just capitalizing on factual data that's not positive for Apple but jumping all over made up stories based on nothing more than BS it seems like the Maps fiasco (and you've really got to call it that regardless of your actual opinion of the app itself) was a pivot for the huge negative sentiment rise the past few months ... Apple management has to take full responsibility for the huge publicity disaster this has turned out to be i've heard all the issues surrounding margin, lack of SJ aura, tax-based selling, etc. the reality is that we're approaching what few believe will be anything but a record earnings report with highest ever revenue and total profits ... and we're down almost $200 points ... how many of us remember when AAPL at $200 seemed like the answer to all our retirement dreams? let's be thankful we're solidly up year-over-year ... and call me when this death march is over, i've got better things to do Understand and I'm with you. IMHO the negative news (the frivolous shit) is just piling on to explain the fall. Its certainly annoying but I don't think anyone but the least experienced investor is making decisions on the rhetoric. While I don't believe any one thing is driving this fall, I do believe some factors are stronger than others. IMHO this being driven by people's belief (and they are right) that taxes on you gains are going up on 1 Jan. Apple has gone up about 60% in the past two years but regardless, anyone with long term cap gains knows they'll save more by selling now. A few weeks ago a broker from Morgan Stanley I believe stated even people with IRAs are calling up and panicking about the looming tax rise (which does not say a lot of the tax knowledge of some IRA holders). Brokers go along with his because they get paid coming and going. I'll take a WAG here and bet that most people using a full service broker are getting told to sell now, wait and buy back in the last week of Dec or early Jan. From the brokers perspective, they look like a hero plus make the commission selling and buying. If that chart I saw (or think I saw) is correct and the retail is selling the above would explain it.
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Post by roni on Dec 14, 2012 6:53:25 GMT -8
Added shares and added to a Jan 2014 $600 position for about $10,50 a contract less than I sold them for back on December 5
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Post by bribery on Dec 14, 2012 6:59:01 GMT -8
Added shares and added to a Jan 2014 $600 position for about $10,50 a contract less than I sold them for back on December 5 We're riding the same calls. Just let me know when they're above $55, I don't even want to look at them
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Post by rob_london on Dec 14, 2012 7:02:47 GMT -8
have to get this off my chest ... the negative sentiment towards all things Apple has lately been off the charts!!!! aside from the usual Apple haters (they've always been around and a pretty vocal bunch), we're now seeing everyone that doesn't firmly have positive views on Apple come out solidly in the opposing camp ... the negative commentary is no longer just capitalizing on factual data that's not positive for Apple but jumping all over made up stories based on nothing more than BS it seems like the Maps fiasco (and you've really got to call it that regardless of your actual opinion of the app itself) was a pivot for the huge negative sentiment rise the past few months ... Apple management has to take full responsibility for the huge publicity disaster this has turned out to be i've heard all the issues surrounding margin, lack of SJ aura, tax-based selling, etc. the reality is that we're approaching what few believe will be anything but a record earnings report with highest ever revenue and total profits ... and we're down almost $200 points ... how many of us remember when AAPL at $200 seemed like the answer to all our retirement dreams? let's be thankful we're solidly up year-over-year ... and call me when this death march is over, i've got better things to do Understand and I'm with you. IMHO the negative news (the frivolous shit) is just piling on to explain the fall. Its certainly annoying but I don't think anyone but the least experienced investor is making decisions on the rhetoric. While I don't believe any one thing is driving this fall, I do believe some factors are stronger than others. IMHO this being driven by people's belief (and they are right) that taxes on you gains are going up on 1 Jan. Apple has gone up about 60% in the past two years but regardless, anyone with long term cap gains knows they'll save more by selling now. A few weeks ago a broker from Morgan Stanley I believe stated even people with IRAs are calling up and panicking about the looming tax rise (which does not say a lot of the tax knowledge of some IRA holders). Brokers go along with his because they get paid coming and going. I'll take a WAG here and bet that most people using a full service broker are getting told to sell now, wait and buy back in the last week of Dec or early Jan. From the brokers perspective, they look like a hero plus make the commission selling and buying. If that chart I saw (or think I saw) is correct and the retail is selling the above would explain it. Add to the mix the fact that some brokers have been recently lowering their estimates for the next two quarters. The last consensus estimates I saw for Q2 only has EPS +3% YoY.
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Post by lance on Dec 14, 2012 7:03:57 GMT -8
How do go from the greatest to the worst performing Mega cap stock in 3 months. When during that 3 months you made more profit than any company in history. Officially, I have lost all confidence in the market to turn this around. What can apple do to please these morons. The stock every year continues to underperform the company by such a huge percentage.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 7:04:41 GMT -8
already over 10m shares traded
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Post by fas550 on Dec 14, 2012 7:07:15 GMT -8
Interestingly the 52 week low was one year ago. It's a conspiracy I tell ya, a conspiracy.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 14, 2012 7:07:44 GMT -8
How do go from the greatest to the worst performing Mega cap stock in 3 months. When during that 3 months you made more profit than any company in history. Officially, I have lost all confidence in the market to turn this around. What can apple do to please these morons. The stock every year continues to underperform the company by such a huge percentage. This will be over soon. Keep the faith everyone. This is still an A+ company. It's just being used as an ATM at the moment.
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Post by Apple II+ on Dec 14, 2012 7:12:07 GMT -8
AAPL needs to be $130 higher from here in 3.5 months to avoid negative one year return! When was the last time this stock has seen a negative one year return? Didn't AAPL add around $45,000,000,000 this year? More like 4.5 months. The last time AAPL was lower than the prior year was every day from approximately September 2008 through July 2009.
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Post by podboy on Dec 14, 2012 7:14:00 GMT -8
Thanks II. Still hard to comprehend but you could have said that a lot the past 3 months.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 14, 2012 7:17:40 GMT -8
How do go from the greatest to the worst performing Mega cap stock in 3 months. When during that 3 months you made more profit than any company in history. Officially, I have lost all confidence in the market to turn this around. What can apple do to please these morons. The stock every year continues to underperform the company by such a huge percentage. I like you am discouraged. I bought apple for the fundamentals. Some of my friends know I invest and they say they would never invest in the market as its just a casino. My reply has always been, "Not if you do your homework and buy good companies." We'll that statement look less applicable as time goes by, not just with apple but definitely more so with apple. We all know its more a perspective of time but it is hard to see your long earned savings decimated for any period of time.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 14, 2012 7:18:26 GMT -8
Damn these interviews. I'm in between, literally have minutes. Can't do any trading until probably 3pm ET. This is such a critical point. Let's see if 505 holds.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 14, 2012 7:19:18 GMT -8
iPhone launched in 33 countries today, which is obviously bad news, stock drops. Some dope at UBS claims China demand isn't going to be great, cut his target from $780 to $700. Just what we need, some stupid bastard making such comments right now.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 14, 2012 7:23:31 GMT -8
iPhone launched in 33 countries today, which is obviously bad news, stock drops. Some dope at UBS claims China demand isn't going to be great, cut his target from $780 to $700. Just what we need, some stupid bastard making such comments right now. He probably doesn't want to stick out with having a target too far off the current price. No other explanation.
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Post by mstefa on Dec 14, 2012 7:26:45 GMT -8
at 4 x cash , or 3 x trailing revenues .. they could try to take it private and pay out of cash and revenues in just few years.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 14, 2012 7:26:46 GMT -8
REUTERS: Jefferies cuts estimate for Q1 iPhone sales:
Component suppliers have seen large order cuts in last 24-48 hours. Jefferies cuts estimate for Apple Inc's Q1 iPhone sales to 48 million units from 52 million units
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Post by Big Al on Dec 14, 2012 7:31:53 GMT -8
REUTERS: Jefferies cuts estimate for Q1 iPhone sales: Component suppliers have seen large order cuts in last 24-48 hours. Jefferies cuts estimate for Apple Inc's Q1 iPhone sales to 48 million units from 52 million units Oh, please.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 14, 2012 7:32:11 GMT -8
Damn these interviews. I'm in between, literally have minutes. Can't do any trading until probably 3pm ET. This is such a critical point. Let's see if 505 holds. hah- focus on your residency interviews! They are way more important. Any golden opportunity that possibly happens today will still be a silver opportunity on Monday.
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Post by Apple II+ on Dec 14, 2012 7:34:18 GMT -8
When was the last time this stock has seen a negative one year return? As stated, July 2009 was the last time AAPL was lower than the prior year. And most days since September 2009, AAPL has been at least 20% higher than the prior year. But if things stay the way they've been lately, then we'll breach that benchmark in January.
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