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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 1, 2018 12:57:53 GMT -8
The reaction is based on one recurring piece of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt: Apple's best days might be behind it, and it's all downhill from here.
The market's skittishness on AAPL is the same as it ever was, for the 15-20 years since I've been following the company.
It's impossible to disprove that future-fear with any analysis. Only continued success over time can disprove it, but of course, then there's always tomorrow that Apple could stumble.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 1, 2018 12:58:05 GMT -8
Cash bodes well for additional buybacks and future dividend increases...
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 1, 2018 13:00:15 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 1, 2018 13:29:07 GMT -8
Apparently Mr. Market isn't impressed with the conference call.
BTFD.
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Post by aapltini on Nov 1, 2018 13:30:45 GMT -8
Did I just hear no more reporting on unit sales? That’s fabulous. Who gives a crap how many units if you are making all the profit. One less thing for Mr. Market to punish us for.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 1, 2018 13:39:49 GMT -8
Possible. Also possible that it will make it easier for the FUDsters to make up lies, because there won't be evidence to contradict them.
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Post by pauls on Nov 1, 2018 13:41:02 GMT -8
Added shares @$206.75. I am liking new plan to not disclose unit sales.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
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Post by crispin on Nov 1, 2018 13:43:47 GMT -8
Did I just hear no more reporting on unit sales? That’s fabulous. Who gives a crap how many units if you are making all the profit. One less thing for Mr. Market to punish us for. Should have done that a long time ago IMO. Bravo Apple.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 1, 2018 13:54:02 GMT -8
One thing to help realize the size of AAPL. They make more then 1 B of profit each week and about 727M$ Each day 365 days a year Apple just guided for a billion dollars A DAY. A billion dollars a day and the stock drops. F these dart-throwing WS charlatans.
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Post by longsince98 on Nov 1, 2018 14:07:54 GMT -8
Did I just hear no more reporting on unit sales? That’s fabulous. Who gives a crap how many units if you are making all the profit. One less thing for Mr. Market to punish us for. Should have done that a long time ago IMO. Bravo Apple. I wonder if that part of the announcement accelerated the beating. I could see less familiar investors and FUDsters taking a very negative angle. None of it matters for the longs amongst us of course - and only benefits those who have cash avail.
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Post by mrentropy on Nov 1, 2018 14:22:50 GMT -8
I sold a little today before the call. I'm planning on a house renovation to be funded by AAPL over the next year, and I'm trying to be cautious and capture some historically high pricing. Glad I did, facing uncertain headwinds in the global economy plus being under the 50 SMA might put some pressure on AAPL for a while. Of course if Buffet wants to step in and accumulate, please, by all means!
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Post by mrentropy on Nov 1, 2018 14:23:17 GMT -8
Added shares @$206.75. I am liking new plan to not disclose unit sales. I do like that. Certainly used to work for Amazon
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 1, 2018 14:38:15 GMT -8
Do I have this correct?
In effect, for the $23B returned, they only returned $3.5B out of their $130B-ish net cash equivalent, the $19.5 balance was new from cash generated this quarter.
At this rate they’re not going to be cash neutral for years.
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 1, 2018 14:46:48 GMT -8
I think they were providing a "tell" when discussing how the user base is growing so huge, and their enthusiasm for monetization.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 1, 2018 14:51:48 GMT -8
Solid quarter. VERY happy to hear that Apple will no longer break out numbers for iPhones, that was a long time coming.
This company is generating cash like no company we have ever seen before ... THAT should be the focus.
Good job Tim and Co.
Cheers to the longs ....
BTW, I could care less about the selloff in AH .... hoping Apple buys back a TON of stock starting tomorrow. (not sure if there is a blackout period ... don't believe there is one after reporting .. please correct me if I'm wrong)
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Post by eastbaybob on Nov 1, 2018 15:15:40 GMT -8
I hope they can buy back shares tomorrow. Turns out that it was a good thing they were in a blackout period and they were not buying when the shares were previously dropping. I never sell so it only looks bad for me on paper. Would love for them to scoop up a ton of shares at this price
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 1, 2018 15:36:21 GMT -8
Do we know for sure Apple can’t – or doesn’t – buy during this quiet period? (Which I think is X/days before, and 2 days after earnings report.)
It seemed the ASR program had allowed this in the past (if brokers settled with Apple outside of period and sold sometime later in the period).
Did someone here get the clarification from Investor Relations? Or did you see the buybacks in the 10-Q and find a pattern that indicated that Apple doesn’t buy back directly during the quiet period. Thanks in advance.
Google search: Apple FORM 10-Q pursuant to Rule 10b5-1(c)
Share repurchase program: …Under this program, shares may be repurchased in privately negotiated and/or open market transactions, including under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
An equity trading plan is a written document that pre-establishes the amounts, prices and dates (or formula for determining the amounts, prices and dates) of future purchases or sales of the Company’s stock,
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stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Nov 1, 2018 16:00:10 GMT -8
Do we know for sure Apple can’t – or doesn’t – buy during this quiet period? (Which I think is X/days before, and 2 days after earnings report.) It seemed the ASR program had allowed this in the past (if brokers settled with Apple outside of period and sold sometime later in the period). Did someone here get the clarification from Investor Relations? Or did you see the buybacks in the 10-Q and find a pattern that indicated that Apple doesn’t buy back directly during the quiet period. Thanks in advance. Google search: Apple FORM 10-Q pursuant to Rule 10b5-1(c) Share repurchase program: …Under this program, shares may be repurchased in privately negotiated and/or open market transactions, including under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
An equity trading plan is a written document that pre-establishes the amounts, prices and dates (or formula for determining the amounts, prices and dates) of future purchases or sales of the Company’s stock,
I'mean anybody, correct me if I'm wrong but... I would think that they could have already negotiated a deal with a private company for this current Qtr (we're a month into it) outside of those rules. As in... once Apple makes a deal with a Hedge Fund or whomever, to buy a bunch of AAPL at a certain level from Apple (which the Hedge Fund is betting is higher than they buy back in for), it's a done deal. And we can probably only know how much was a transaction like that, but not who or when, that happened in the next Qtr's results. So the Hedge Funds that did this go all hog on FUD to drive the price down further than that bought it from Apple for, and clean up. It's a win/win, no?
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ono
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compensation
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Post by ono on Nov 1, 2018 16:32:01 GMT -8
Kind of sort of.
There are Accelerated Share Repurchase program specific rules, and the shares need to be retired by the end of the quarter.. The brokerage participants (top tier two or three if I recall) do have an "arbitrage" opportunity within the quarter.
This isn't to say that hedge funds haven't bought on the market themselves (their money, not Apple's) and have been playing loose.
I'm trying to learn if Apple has such a plan in place such that they can buy shares during an otherwise quiet or blackout period per an in place Rule 10b5-1(c) filed plan.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 1, 2018 16:53:42 GMT -8
None of it matters for the longs amongst us of course - and only benefits those who have cash avail. There are certain times where the crazy margin ratios from 1929 and before, where you could have 10x leverage, would be seriously tempting, but could also seriously get you into trouble, quickly. This is one of those, where it's just a matter of how long things can be illogical and irrational, and you have to remember that things can behave that way for a while. Plus AH volumes are fairly small. How much capital would it take to steer the initial reaction, where only ~2M shares traded hands over 3.5 hours (looks like that may be wrong...historic data on Yahoo shows it might have been around 15M) At times it's tempting to go big, either on margin, or converting shares to options. And that has a high potential to come out profitable. But as I've aged, and my responsibilities have changed, while it's tempting it's also fine to just sit back and watch the temporary chaos fade away. Just for kicks I might pick up a few percent more, but it's performance will neither buy me a yacht nor sink one. Not quite a lottery ticket, with a payout a lot lower, but a big win a lot more likely than 300M to one. But keep calm. If AAPL sees a P/E of 20-21 again this quarter, that will be $237-$249, based on simple trailing earnings of $11.87/share. Or on the uncalm side of things, this is the second quarter in a row that Apple has manages YOY EPS growth of around 40%, and the YOY trailing 12 month EPS is up 29%. While that is aided by what's likely a 6% share buyback YOY (if they kept the trajectory from last Q), that is pretty amazing for a company this mammoth. Such a change from the years of yore, where it seemed writers job prospects were based on fitting "beleaguered" into any Apple article. Go AAPL! Even if you have to stay down here for a bit to juice the worms out of the rotten core. BINGO! (Good job Sponge, though jump quick. I'd imagine peak gains on Puts would be first thing, whereas analyst updates will come out a little slower, giving a decent chance on a partial recovery in 2-3 days, after being down 7-12 points at close tomorrow. Sometimes it's fun to take a wild-ass guess after over 80 quarters of watching the chaos unfold)
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Nov 1, 2018 17:19:38 GMT -8
Wonder if we dipped below 1T after hours?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 1, 2018 17:51:01 GMT -8
I didn’t see it mentioned, but don’t the analysts predict the iPhone units in the following way?
Estimate total revenue. Estimate proportion of revenue from the iPhone. Estimate ASP. Then deduce the number of units sold. So when they underestimate ASP, they tend to overestimate the units sold. So they just narrowly miss units sold, but had a much larger magnitude miss on the ASP.
I want to see how things shake out on a macro level, but there is going to be a good buying opportunity here.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 1, 2018 17:52:21 GMT -8
Wonder if we dipped below 1T after hours? According to CNBC they did, albeit briefly.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 1, 2018 18:17:15 GMT -8
Wonder if we dipped below 1T after hours? According to CNBC they did, albeit briefly. From Apple's FY'18 Q4 consolidated statementOn 9-29-18 there were 4,847,547,xxx diluted shares, making the $1T level at $206.29 (or that $2T level at $412.58) I saw $205.80, but that might not have been the low. It all doesn't matter much, and assuming Apple has kept buying shares (as they have in the past) there are likely fewer diluted shares now. The 10K's number is normally dated a couple weeks later, though I think it uses basic shares instead of diluted... FWIW, the last 5 Q's of diluted shares as listed in the quarterly earnings consolidated statements are: FY'17 Q4 5,183,585,xxx FY'18 Q1 5,157,787,xxx FY'18 Q2 5,068,493,xxx FY'18 Q3 4,926,609,xxx FY'18 Q4 4,847,547,xxx That's a drop of 6.5% YOY, whereas in FY'17 I have that they lowered the count by 3.9%. At this rate Lucky is going to own all of Apple any year now...
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Post by tuffett on Nov 1, 2018 19:00:43 GMT -8
This reaction is completely justified. Apple is guiding for 0.8% - 5.3% revenue growth (after just reporting 20% growth). This indicates a large decline in iPhone unit sales considering the no-brainer huge growth in Services and Other Products and enormous iPhone ASPs. Margins are also expected to be the same, which is a surprise to me considering the prices of the new iPhones. Apple is back to zero or low growth, and will be relying on financial engineering to boost EPS. Nothing wrong with that, but I don't expect a high multiple until there's a new product that changes the outlook.
I'm shocked that revenue growth can stall so quickly. Perhaps they're sandbagging in fear of trade war / China.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 1, 2018 19:52:48 GMT -8
This reaction is completely justified. Apple is guiding for 0.8% - 5.3% revenue growth (after just reporting 20% growth). This indicates a large decline in iPhone unit sales considering the no-brainer huge growth in Services and Other Products and enormous iPhone ASPs. Margins are also expected to be the same, which is a surprise to me considering the prices of the new iPhones. Apple is back to zero or low growth, and will be relying on financial engineering to boost EPS. Nothing wrong with that, but I don't expect a high multiple until there's a new product that changes the outlook. I'm shocked that revenue growth can stall so quickly. Perhaps they're sandbagging in fear of trade war / China. That’s one way to look at it. But if we add back in the currency exchange loss of 2Bn, we see growth of 3%-7.5%. Not too bad. Plus, with the XS being released in September, FQ4 got a boost YoY and a favorable compare as the X wasn’t released until the FQ1, which subsequently gave a tougher compare (at least related to phones) to the current quarter. Sure it would be nice if the growth were equally steady during the year, but it’s not. I’m not particularly worried about the AH reaction and what will probably roll into a bad day tomorrow. Let the weak hands shake out, whether it takes a day, week, or month. Apple will be buying. Buffet (likely) will be buying. We’ll be fine.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 1, 2018 21:17:53 GMT -8
This reaction is completely justified. Apple is guiding for 0.8% - 5.3% revenue growth (after just reporting 20% growth). This indicates a large decline in iPhone unit sales considering the no-brainer huge growth in Services and Other Products and enormous iPhone ASPs. Margins are also expected to be the same, which is a surprise to me considering the prices of the new iPhones. Apple is back to zero or low growth, and will be relying on financial engineering to boost EPS. Nothing wrong with that, but I don't expect a high multiple until there's a new product that changes the outlook. I'm shocked that revenue growth can stall so quickly. Perhaps they're sandbagging in fear of trade war / China. That’s one way to look at it. But if we add back in the currency exchange loss of 2Bn, we see growth of 3%-7.5%. Not too bad. Plus, with the XS being released in September, FQ4 got a boost YoY and a favorable compare as the X wasn’t released until the FQ1, which subsequently gave a tougher compare (at least related to phones) to the current quarter. Sure it would be nice if the growth were equally steady during the year, but it’s not. I’m not particularly worried about the AH reaction and what will probably roll into a bad day tomorrow. Let the weak hands shake out, whether it takes a day, week, or month. Apple will be buying. Buffet (likely) will be buying. We’ll be fine. 3% growth is poor in their most important quarter. True that the XS came out early but on the other hand the X had under two months of sales last year in FQ1. Most important for me is that gross margins seem unable to move despite significant price hikes across almost all products. AAPL has held up very well amid a shaky market but I think this guidance is going to flush it lower. Not much reason to hold for the next couple of months, especially since some other big tech names have been beaten up and have attractive prices. I’ll probably cut most of my position and buy back in closer to Jan earnings which I think will blow out this crappy guidance along with announcement of all time record capital return.
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