Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 2:43:11 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 3:54:41 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Nov 2, 2018 4:23:19 GMT -8
I don’t think we, the investors, did our investing because Apple reported unit sales while none of their competitors did.
It was fun for a long time, though, to see the numbers when they selected a purpose - to generate excitement for the products and the stock.
Now, when you think about it, the numbers are so large that it accomplishes neither. Consumers no longer care or are influenced by how many units of any particular thing Apple is selling, including the iPhone. The stock is based primarily on earnings and guidance, with increasingly less color coming from unit sales. They’re more likely to disappoint than enthrall Wall Street at this point because the days of huge increases in unit sales are over.
There’s no point in providing this information any longer - it serves no positive purpose and only gives their competitors more data points to work against. It’s a competitive disadvantage because NOBODY ELSE reports unit sales.
I’m sure they’ve been waiting for the right quarter to introduce this change - one where something else (guidance) was going to be held against them. May as well take all the bad at once and be over it.
(This is similar to when they started guiding to a range, rather than a specific number, and also implied this would be more conservative and would for the most part end the days of massive beats with guidance that was far too conservative) WS didn’t like that, either, but they managed to forget about it eventually.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 4:36:05 GMT -8
I find it fascinating how many analysts say "investors" want to know the unit sales. Contrast what the analysts say with what you read here.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 2, 2018 6:07:40 GMT -8
I find it fascinating how many analysts say "investors" want to know the unit sales. Contrast what the analysts say with what you read here. Agreed. While I'm personally curious how many units Apple is selling of each item, as an investor, I only want to hear the overall numbers. It gives analysts, and particularly the media, less to whine about when they are trying their best to put down the company. I think its interesting that as iphone sales are leveling out and other products and services are growing, picking up the slack, that the media now sees that as a negative. Apple has been accused of 'just an iphone company' and berated for not diversifying their income generation. Now, as they seemingly go down that path, the sky is falling because iphone sales are slowing.
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Post by macprof on Nov 2, 2018 6:37:10 GMT -8
What nobody seems to be commenting on is the main reason for the projected slight miss in next quarter's forecasted earnings - currency headwinds and some regional trouble spots (ie Brazil). These may reverse, and should be short term. Taken out of the equation, it seems the higher estimates would have been right on.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2018 6:41:11 GMT -8
What nobody seems to be commenting on is the main reason for the projected slight miss in next quarter's forecasted earnings - currency headwinds and some regional trouble spots (ie Brazil). These may reverse, and should be short term. Taken out of the equation, it seems the higher estimates would have been right on. Headlines are the only data points that matter these days. I will be looking for an entry before 1Q results are out. This holiday season should boom.
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Post by macprof on Nov 2, 2018 6:47:04 GMT -8
The price drop and rationales didn't make much sense to me. Everything sounded pretty wonderful to my ears. I'm guessing some big money people (the ones that can manipulate share prices after hours) called in some favours from their manipulable 'news' sources' and 'analysts'. Good opportunity to scare some people out and make money.
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Post by sponge on Nov 2, 2018 6:54:34 GMT -8
Removing iPhone numbers which represents over 60% of profits makes much more difficult to identify significant slowdowns or up trends. As an investor that data was very important. I can see why WS is not pleased.
It also leaves more room for manipulation. TC can gives bits of positive info and leave out glaring issues. WS can throw all sorts of rumors and manipulate the stock short term.
This reminds me of Apple Watch. No numbers at first and three years later we are growing 50%.
At the same time I am an Apple bull and think the company will do just fine. But this quarter get ready for some real pain. 180 is not out of the question.
I have been in cash since we hit 207 back in July. Did some put trading and made a little money. Will buy more puts after this sell off appears to be over. Maybe as early as Monday.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 7:11:26 GMT -8
For those questioning where Sponge is pulling his numbers from, there is one of those pesky gaps sitting down there. I would have said $189, but the point is that a dip of that magnitude is possible.
It will be interesting to see if we rebound before the dividend is paid. Any bets?
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 2, 2018 7:52:50 GMT -8
I so wish I had some dry powder as I'd be a buyer right now. I'm really surprised I've heard so little about the 237 BILLION dollars and how Apple can financially engineer the SP much higher. They don't need to increase iPhone numbers ... just keep buying back. There really is a very hard backstop in this case ....
I still think this is a long term advantage for the stock, the pressure analysts and WS have put on iPhone numbers makes no sense ... as in investor I'm more interested in other metrics such as margins, profits, customer satisfaction, ASP and so on.
Cheers to the longs.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 2, 2018 7:57:30 GMT -8
For those questioning where Sponge is pulling his numbers from, there is one of those pesky gaps sitting down there. I would have said $189, but the point is that a dip of that magnitude is possible. It will be interesting to see if we rebound before the dividend is paid. Any bets? I'll bet we'll be higher by the dividend pay date. That's just going on a gut feeling, but in preparation for that, I did a little buying in the upper 206 range. I'm still keeping a bit on the sidelines in case we dive further, but the buybacks give me confidence that there is a floor somewhere in here.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 2, 2018 8:11:52 GMT -8
In response to some of the discussion after hours yesterday about blackout periods for Apple as to when they can buy stock, I'll point to February 2014. In their FQ1 that year, Apple reported good numbers, but the stock got whacked immediately for an 8% loss. In the coming two weeks, Tim Cook would publicly state that Apple, in the 2 weeks since earnings bought back $14Bn in shares. A line from an old Yahoo Finance article (plenty other sources out there) stated:
"Apple (NasdaqGS: AAPL - news) gobbled up $14 billion worth of its shares in the two weeks after earnings figures disappointed the market, chief executive Tim Cook said in an interview published Thursday. Cook told The Wall Street Journal that the maker of iPads, iPhones, iPods and Macintosh computers was "surprised" by a drop in share price triggered by the quarter results and wanted to be "opportunistic."
With even more cash readily available now, I have no reason to think Cook and company won't be doing the same thing this time around. But, the point I'm trying to make is that there didn't appear to be a blackout period following earnings for Apple in 2014. Practically speaking, since all of the news was made public yesterday, Apple wouldn't have a glaring advantage over other investors (with respect at least to the previous quarter), so there would be no need to restrict them from purchasing stock.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 2, 2018 8:11:56 GMT -8
180 is also a 15 PE. It would be painful, but possible.
The new reporting could take a couple quarters to digest and get over. Until another quarter or two outs the change in the rear view mirror, it will be used as a major FUD talking point. For example, from CNBC today:
“Jefferies analyst Timothy O'Shea said the decision may fuel fears that Tim Cook-led company may be trying to conceal softer sales in the future. "Apple will stop disclosing unit sales figures next quarter, fueling fears the company has something to hide,"
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Post by sponge on Nov 2, 2018 8:56:11 GMT -8
One theory is that TC gave low guidance to drive stock down.
They can buy more cheaper and screw Trump and midterms.
I think regardless how low we go we will see 230 by April.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 2, 2018 9:06:48 GMT -8
My major concern is the flat gross margin guide. High margin services are growing like a weed, iPhone ASP is through the roof, Mac prices are up and gross margin is flat? It’s worrying.
High iPhone prices are exacerbating the natural lengthening of the upgrade cycle. The result is a significant decline in units sold by reading in between the lines of guidance. If Apple can’t increase margins on this, then profit from iPhone looks like it may be around peak.
The buyback will support the stock well enough, but we really need a needle moving new product line. That massive R&D spend has to be doing something more productive than product iterations.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 2, 2018 9:16:26 GMT -8
My favorite comments from PED's column today:
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Maurice Klaehne, Counterpoint Research: Lessons from Today’s Apple Earnings Call. Even Apple knows that it’s unsustainable to keep raising their ASP like this YoY. The next big move for the company will be to refocus their offerings to their ecosystem and services and away from its devices. An indicator for this is their announcement that iPad, Mac and iPhone sales unit numbers will not be broken out in the future. The company will now focus on better weaving a story not build on shipments but one of revenues, ecosystem, services, and customer satisfaction.
Horace Dediu, Asymco: This is awesome.
**********
Also, the current episode of Neil Cybart's Above Avalon podcast makes a corresponding point. The title is "The iPhone gray market," referencing the fact that there is a very large group of older iPhones in use out there by their second or even third owner. I doubt that any of the Android phone makers can claim the same.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 10:27:38 GMT -8
If memory serves me, we're about at the after market low last night. It is reassuring that AAPL did break below it.
I am tempted to buy some on the sub $206 dips. I anticipate AAPL will bounce a bit on Monday...
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 10:29:42 GMT -8
Just looked, according to CNBC the Aftermarket low was $206. I would swear I saw a print of $205.30 last night.
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Post by macster on Nov 2, 2018 10:38:49 GMT -8
Lets not forget the iPhone XR has just released which obviously affected sept Qtr. units. Jeez... record earnings! Happy with the no unit sales stats for now on unless they are outstanding. US markets are scared of the mid-term results and all the other worldly ramifications. Hell of a big drop though. lol Use iPhone 7, will not get a new iPhone until 5G.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 2, 2018 10:38:57 GMT -8
Just looked, according to CNBC the Aftermarket low was $206. I would swear I saw a print of $205.30 last night. I'm seeing a trade of 205.16 at 5:40pm yesterday on Fidelity.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 2, 2018 10:39:44 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 10:42:16 GMT -8
Thanks. Thought I was losing it... 😜
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2018 10:46:33 GMT -8
Just looked, according to CNBC the Aftermarket low was $206. I would swear I saw a print of $205.30 last night. I saw 205.80 on Yahoo quotes yesterday afternoon. At first yesterday I was thinking of putting a buy in for some shares at around $206, and double that at around $203, figuring a $30 upside to the ATH would be worth it. After digesting the interpretations last night, while I am ok with earnings (mostly they were great), I understand they weren't all outstanding, and that reporting less info in the future can be scary even if long term it is the right thing for Apple to do. Likewise, this may have been the high for the iPhone ASP, so they won't have that pulling things up (YOY compare will be tough too, as Q1 was $796, vs the just announced Q4 of $793). As such, I wasn't sure how solid the floor was, and would rather be conservative. I imagine a bounce monday after thoughts are digested over the weekend, but if it goes lower I'll be ready to pick up a little more.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 2, 2018 11:11:45 GMT -8
big volume on this down day- over 91 million shares traded
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2018 11:37:54 GMT -8
Lets not forget the iPhone XR has just released which obviously affected sept Qtr. units. Jeez... record earnings! Happy with the no unit sales stats for now on unless they are outstanding. US markets are scared of the mid-term results and all the other worldly ramifications. Hell of a big drop though. lol Use iPhone 7, will not get a new iPhone until 5G. China is very important. Feels like the market has priced in a long term negative outlook regarding China trade. My money would be on a trade deal completed by Monday. Need a deal before election Tuesday. Trump knows that.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Nov 2, 2018 11:39:44 GMT -8
Lets not forget the iPhone XR has just released which obviously affected sept Qtr. units. Jeez... record earnings! Happy with the no unit sales stats for now on unless they are outstanding. US markets are scared of the mid-term results and all the other worldly ramifications. Hell of a big drop though. lol Use iPhone 7, will not get a new iPhone until 5G. China is very important. Feels like the market has priced in a long term negative outlook regarding China trade. My money would be on a trade deal completed by Monday. Need a deal before election Tuesday. Trump knows that. So do the Chinese!!!
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Nov 2, 2018 11:49:18 GMT -8
Bit the bullet and bought a few more shares at $205.58.
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Post by aapltini on Nov 2, 2018 12:22:35 GMT -8
One theory is that TC gave low guidance to drive stock down. They can buy more cheaper and screw Trump and midterms. I think regardless how low we go we will see 230 by April. If there is any validity to this “theory” than Cook shouldn’t just be canned he should go to jail. I certainly hope he hasn’t become so dogmatic in his political leanings that he’d be willing to screw his thousands of employees and millions of shareholders just to exert his political will. I have no problem if he wants to spend his personal hundreds of millions trying to affect “change” but if he goes any further using Apple as his political pawn then its time for him to go far, far away. However, I trust his integrity and don’t buy this “theory”.
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crispin
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Post by crispin on Nov 2, 2018 13:01:03 GMT -8
One theory is that TC gave low guidance to drive stock down. They can buy more cheaper and screw Trump and midterms. I think regardless how low we go we will see 230 by April. If there is any validity to this “theory” than Cook shouldn’t just be canned he should go to jail. I certainly hope he hasn’t become so dogmatic in his political leanings that he’d be willing to screw his thousands of employees and millions of shareholders just to exert his political will. I have no problem if he wants to spend his personal hundreds of millions trying to affect “change” but if he goes any further using Apple as his political pawn then its time for him to go far, far away. However, I trust his integrity and don’t buy this “theory”. I guess there's nothing that can't be explained with a good conspiracy theory. I'd put your pitchforks down and reflect for a moment on the idiocy of the suggestion that Tim would ever do anything like that. Even though I'd personally cheer any effort to rid our country of this pestilence, it's beyond absurd to even imagine the scenario. Let's not automatically give credence to every mouth-breather on the internet.
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