stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Nov 2, 2018 13:38:22 GMT -8
If there is any validity to this “theory” than Cook shouldn’t just be canned he should go to jail. I certainly hope he hasn’t become so dogmatic in his political leanings that he’d be willing to screw his thousands of employees and millions of shareholders just to exert his political will. I have no problem if he wants to spend his personal hundreds of millions trying to affect “change” but if he goes any further using Apple as his political pawn then its time for him to go far, far away. However, I trust his integrity and don’t buy this “theory”. I guess there's nothing that can't be explained with a good conspiracy theory. I'd put your pitchforks down and reflect for a moment on the idiocy of the suggestion that Tim would ever do anything like that. Even though I'd personally cheer any effort to rid our country of this pestilence, it's beyond absurd to even imagine the scenario. Let's not automatically give credence to every mouth-breather on the internet. I don't get this whole "mouth-breather" label thing. I'mean, what if your sinuses are stopped up and you HAVE to breath through mouth? :-\
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Post by sponge on Nov 2, 2018 13:42:16 GMT -8
We know that SJ sanbagged guidance all the time and TC followed that example for a while until Luca changed it. Why would be anyone’s guess. So it is possible.
As far as the lefts hatered for Trump( most don’t understand) and TC active liberal agenda, it is very possible to be influenced.
Watch how much the market crashes after D take over the house.
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Post by pauls on Nov 2, 2018 13:50:18 GMT -8
We know that SJ sanbagged guidance all the time and TC followed that example for a while until Luca changed it. Why would be anyone’s guess. So it is possible. As far as the lefts hatered for Trump( most don’t understand) and TC active liberal agenda, it is very possible to be influenced. Watch how much the market crashes after D take over the house. Sponge, it wasn’t that long ago that you were predicting electing Obama was going to crash the market. Instead we had the start of 10 yr bull run. TC has sheparded Apple into the worlds most valuable company. He is a defender of equality and human rights, as well as head of the most successful capitalistic endeavor of our lifetimes. Yesterday’s call and guidance has zero to do with gaming elections, yet perhaps does have a bit to do with uncertainty in world markets brought on by our current president.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Nov 2, 2018 13:53:06 GMT -8
We know that SJ sanbagged guidance all the time and TC followed that example for a while until Luca changed it. Why would be anyone’s guess. So it is possible. As far as the lefts hatered for Trump( most don’t understand) and TC active liberal agenda, it is very possible to be influenced. Watch how much the market crashes after D take over the house. D take over? Yikes! Jeez, think positive Sponge. The idea of having to look at Senator(?) Jackie Rosen's mis-shapened head for the next 4 years is more than just a "little" disturbing.
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Post by sponge on Nov 2, 2018 13:59:31 GMT -8
Well the free cash the fed pumped into the economy helped Obama.
I think what ever crash we have will be temporary. The House can’t to much to reverse Trump or prevent his re-election.
The puts in Oct, Nov, Dec, and Jan, that were bought are clues that this market was going to correct. Now the various excuses will be given.
I think Trump, elections, or even China are excuses to sell it down.
Economy is still strong.
Now as to Apple I think the iPhone price increase will cause a big slowdown in sales. Apple does not care since they will make up for it with other products. And in time lower prices back to $600 and kill Android.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Nov 2, 2018 14:04:46 GMT -8
Jackie Rosen is proof that even vaccine brain damaged children can still grow up to have a career in politics.
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Post by sponge on Nov 2, 2018 14:11:25 GMT -8
I have a crazy theory that the D will hold the house for one week or a few days until all the votes are counted. Then we go back up.
We will see
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 2, 2018 14:33:33 GMT -8
we got 4 moderators........ LET'S BE CIVIL !
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Nov 2, 2018 15:45:16 GMT -8
My major concern is the flat gross margin guide. High margin services are growing like a weed, iPhone ASP is through the roof, Mac prices are up and gross margin is flat? It’s worrying. High iPhone prices are exacerbating the natural lengthening of the upgrade cycle. The result is a significant decline in units sold by reading in between the lines of guidance. If Apple can’t increase margins on this, then profit from iPhone looks like it may be around peak. The buyback will support the stock well enough, but we really need a needle moving new product line. That massive R&D spend has to be doing something more productive than product iterations. That sounds like you do not believe that wearables will be "needle moving." To be clear, I own neither AirPods nor the Watch, and am unlikely to purchase either. But I often see (especially young) folks obsessing with their phones and using earbuds in public spaces. I have never been a runner and get my regular exercise on the squash court, but again, I sure see a lot of them in the streets, very often plugged into their phones while they run. As part of the greying generation, I see increasing interest in health monitoring among my age group, and it does seem that the medical profession could some day be "prescribing" Watches for at least some of their older patients as additional health monitoring capabilities are added. Will wearables rival the iPhone someday? Unlikely IMHO, but perhaps that is just my inability to imagine how Apple will come up with ways to make them indispensable for some peoples' lives. As blown away by the first iPhone as I was, I still don't think that I could have imagined how central to people's lives they would become, basically by putting the Internet in everyone's pocket. Never underestimate Apple's ability to extend the attractiveness and stickiness of their products.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 2, 2018 16:05:29 GMT -8
My major concern is the flat gross margin guide. High margin services are growing like a weed, iPhone ASP is through the roof, Mac prices are up and gross margin is flat? It’s worrying. High iPhone prices are exacerbating the natural lengthening of the upgrade cycle. The result is a significant decline in units sold by reading in between the lines of guidance. If Apple can’t increase margins on this, then profit from iPhone looks like it may be around peak. The buyback will support the stock well enough, but we really need a needle moving new product line. That massive R&D spend has to be doing something more productive than product iterations. That sounds like you do not believe that wearables will be "needle moving." To be clear, I own neither AirPods nor the Watch, and am unlikely purchase either. But I often see (especially young) folks obsessing with their phones and using earbuds in public spaces. I have never been a runner and get my regular exercise on the squash court, but again, I sure see a lot of them in the streets, very often plugged into their phones while they run. As part of the greying generation, I see increasing interest in health monitoring among my age group, and it does seem that the medical profession could some day be "prescribing" Watches for at least some of their older patients as additional health monitoring capabilities are added. Will wearables rival the iPhone someday? Unlikely IMHO, but perhaps that is just my inability to imagine how Apple will come up with ways to make them indispensable for some peoples' lives. As blown away by the first iPhone as I was, I still don't think that I could have imagined how central to people's lives they would become, basically by putting the Internet in everyone's pocket. Never underestimate Apple's ability to extend the attractiveness and stickiness of their products. I’m bullish on wearables (and own AirPods and an Apple Watch myself). But even with expected 30-40% growth, we’re getting flat revenue on the low end of guidance. We should all know by now that the markets wants and expects growth, especially with the strong economy we have today. Practically every large cap tech company is guiding for double digit growth, Apple is not. Some valuations are actually reasonable too, like FB. Without the buybacks there is no reason to get into AAPL right now instead of some other companies that have had bigger corrections and are guiding for growth. With buybacks, it becomes more difficult. AAPL is still extremely safe in the long term, but I think after this guidance growth in stock price is going to be slower.
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 2, 2018 16:17:48 GMT -8
Thanks. Thought I was losing it... 😜 So you’re saying this proves you’re *not* losing it? ;-)
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 2, 2018 17:08:21 GMT -8
We know that SJ sanbagged guidance all the time and TC followed that example for a while until Luca changed it. Why would be anyone’s guess. So it is possible. As far as the lefts hatered for Trump( most don’t understand) and TC active liberal agenda, it is very possible to be influenced.
Watch how much the market crashes after D take over the house.This is the type of comment one might expect from a *new* member on AFB, who doesn't realize that it should instead be posted in The Dungeon. You've been a member of AFB since Sep 16, 2012 so I assume it just slipped your mind. As I understand the AFB guidelines, in order to prevent the members from engaging in tit for tat postings, which disrupt the ultimate reason for this board, this is where *obvious* political commentary belongs: aaplfinance.proboards.com/board/1/dungeon
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Post by BillH on Nov 2, 2018 20:43:13 GMT -8
Here's my take from the less financially oriented cheap seats. I thought the earnings were awesome and that guidance was merely Apple at it's most conservative self setting us up nicely for a blowout holiday quarter. Worst case they've guided to an achievable number if things really do go to the dogs in the coming quarter. The iPhone number was pretty impressive given that this time around they led with their most expensive introductions saving the "reasonable" price handset for the holidays. This was as good a time as any to get off the units sold merry-go-round that they alone inhabited. Installed base is a more important metric and even that doesn't really tell the whole story. I think they (and we) are well positioned to see the biggest "it's all about Apple" holiday season ever. Great iPhone lineup. Best Mac lineup ever. AirPods, HomePods and Watches will be everywhere. Macro conditions aside my single largest fear isn't anything being discussed on the inter tubes. It's merely that they won't build enough.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 3, 2018 6:54:35 GMT -8
Just remember, the iPhone miss wasn’t really a miss at all. The analysts got the iPhone mix wrong and had a lower ASP from higher low revenue device sales.
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Post by sponge on Nov 3, 2018 8:55:10 GMT -8
Let change the subject to TA for the stock.
Back in February the RSI hit 23. We are still at 40.
The overal VIX is at 19, we hit 50 then.
We closed under the 100 which is bearish.
91 million shares is high but not that bad. Indicating we could stabilize and go up for a short period. But I still expect more pain soon after.
The 20 MA crossed under the 50MA another bearish signal.
Take it look at puts and calls for Jan at 190. It happens to be the gap from July.
But I think the most important data points are those for the S&P.. it has closed under the 200MA for some time. We tend to follow it.
The puts there in Oct and Nov. told me that regardless what Apple reports it was in real danger of selling off after earnings.
Then the MACD histogram has been bearing since early September and when comparing to Feb., we have a ways to go downward.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 4, 2018 8:16:50 GMT -8
I don't see why everyone is so pleased that Apple will not report unit sales of items. I find that very interesting, and a factor in my judging whether to hold onto my stock.
For example, when the watch came out it was a factor in my confidence in Apple, and the great sales have just helped my enthusiasm.
And the declining projections for the iPhone does not bother me at all. It had to happen. It is normal, and Android users often think an iPhone is an upgrade, so Apple holds strong.
And I would like to know how the new MacBook Air does.
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