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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2012 23:57:19 GMT -8
At this rate AAPL will be worth less than the cash they have on hand by June.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 2:01:42 GMT -8
If only there was some hedge fund with 120+ Billion dollars that was earning almost nothing on that money that could invest in Apple at such a fantastic time. I can't believe that Tim Cook and the Board aren't looking at an immediate buyback at these levels...it's just bad management if you ask me. They could easily spend $30 - $40 Billion on a buyback at these levels and not have it effect their ability to increase dividends, make investments in other companies or run their day to day business. That would really send the bears running. +100% AAPL has ~40B on shore and 80B off shore. They pay dividends from cash flow. They can and should easily float on-shore bonds equal to the tax adjusted amount of offshore cash if they want say 60B. They know this. A vast majority of their capex is offshore. Managment should be faulted. Unless they see a tough year in 2013 and think maybe they should wait to buyback at much lower prices. Remember, many companies have lost shareholder value from buying back stock into cratering fundementals. This is a key "black swan" concern...
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 15, 2012 3:19:40 GMT -8
Vitalogy80 has it right - they could announce a buyback to be done over the course of time (they can define that time) but make it very large number. Just because they announce one doesn't mean they complete it - they do as they see fit depending on markets, circumstances, corporate issues, stock price, etc. over the course of time. The point is that it puts a floor in by virtually scaring the shorts because it won't be fun for them to move the stock violently and press it, not knowing when the corporate buy back will be prompted. They don't always do the buy back at a set price so it really unsettles the shorts. Furthermore, the selling will subside by investors because there will be more stability in the name instead of these gyrations. Our corporate buy back desk used to be right across from my desk for a portion of my career and I would see this ALL the time. Maybe rules have changed but don't think so. I am truly befuddled by what I would consider to be Management's lack of effective and proactive protection their company and their shareholders...other than all their patent lawsuits. Let's hope lawsuits aren't their only strategy.
And FWIW - they have enough cash on shore to make a difference and announce this so cash isn't the issue - it's willingness.
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Post by brazilnuts on Dec 15, 2012 6:00:26 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 15, 2012 6:27:14 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner. I heard this for years. I also heard Apple would never pay a dividend. Well guess what, Apple pays a dividend and they are buying shares to stop share creep. Apple has way to much cash on its balance sheet, this was acknowledged by TC. It appears we may have dodged the special dividend, thankfully, but I would never rule out an expanded buy back program. Apple already has one, it is just a scope issue now.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 6:48:03 GMT -8
I've long thought that Apple might buy out a telecom or cable company. With the dividends being paid out, Apple could buy Charter Communications at current value in about 6 quarters. (I don't trust my math without coffee.)
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Post by wheeles on Dec 15, 2012 7:12:32 GMT -8
Vitalogy80 has it right - they could announce a buyback to be done over the course of time (they can define that time) but make it very large number. Didn't Apple announce they would do a buyback at the time of the dividend announcement? I don't recall over what sort of timeframe it would be done, but I am fairly sure one was mentioned.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 7:22:04 GMT -8
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Post by jeffi on Dec 15, 2012 7:38:23 GMT -8
From this weeks Barons...
IT MAY BE TIME FOR APPLE to finally get serious about share repurchases. With its shares off more than 25% from their September peak of $702 to $509 on Friday's close after a 23-point drop in the week, Apple trades for just 10 times projected consensus earnings of $49 a share in its current fiscal year, ending in September. Its price/earnings ratio is just eight when the company's $128 a share in cash is stripped away.
The selloff last week came as several analysts cut earnings estimates for the current fiscal year amid reduced expectations for iPhone and iPad sales. UBS's Steve Milunovich cut his 2013 estimate to $47 a share from $51.50 Friday and reduced his price target to a still-lofty $700 from $780.
Apple earlier this year initiated a $10.60 annual dividend and said it would buy back $10 billion of stock over three years. That's a modest repurchase program given Apple's enormous cash position and its annual free cash flow of over $40 billion. Apple ought to consider a large one-time share buyback of up to $50 billion, financed by onshore cash and borrowings.
The company probably could borrow $25 billion or more of intermediate-term debt at around 2%. One option would be to buy back $50 billion at once through a tender offer, at say, $575 a share. That would retire about 10% of its stock and be highly accretive to earnings. Apple historically has been very conservative financially, but CEO Tim Cook and the board ought to reconsider.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 15, 2012 7:38:48 GMT -8
I've long thought that Apple might buy out a telecom or cable company. With the dividends being paid out, Apple could buy Charter Communications at current value in about 6 quarters. (I don't trust my math without coffee.) Wouldn't that make sense to gain content for the iTV. Read where the iTV is being developed, but still in early stages. But when its ready, content will be important.
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Post by rickag on Dec 15, 2012 7:50:51 GMT -8
From this weeks Barons... IT MAY BE TIME FOR APPLE to finally get serious about share repurchases. With its shares off more than 25% from their September peak of $702 to $509 on Friday's close after a 23-point drop in the week, Apple trades for just 10 times projected consensus earnings of $49 a share in its current fiscal year, ending in September. Its price/earnings ratio is just eight when the company's $128 a share in cash is stripped away. The selloff last week came as several analysts cut earnings estimates for the current fiscal year amid reduced expectations for iPhone and iPad sales. UBS's Steve Milunovich cut his 2013 estimate to $47 a share from $51.50 Friday and reduced his price target to a still-lofty $700 from $780. Apple earlier this year initiated a $10.60 annual dividend and said it would buy back $10 billion of stock over three years. That's a modest repurchase program given Apple's enormous cash position and its annual free cash flow of over $40 billion. Apple ought to consider a large one-time share buyback of up to $50 billion, financed by onshore cash and borrowings. The company probably could borrow $25 billion or more of intermediate-term debt at around 2%. One option would be to buy back $50 billion at once through a tender offer, at say, $575 a share. That would retire about 10% of its stock and be highly accretive to earnings. Apple historically has been very conservative financially, but CEO Tim Cook and the board ought to reconsider. As much as I'm hurting in my options account I want Apple to do what is best for Apple. I see minimal gain for Apple for a large buy back. This would appease some sharholders and would certainly make some Apple employees holding options given them by the company, but what is the upside for Apple as a corporation. The biggest downside for upper management if they don't do a large buy back, would be the sharholders voting them out, which I would be shocked if this happened. Am I completely off base here?? edited for clarity.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 8:02:33 GMT -8
My preferences for cash usage:
0. Expansion of control of the current supply chains. 1. Expansion of Apple's DNA: content delivery and content. Movie, music and television production and a cable or telecom. 2. Somewhat more aggressive investment in the money markets and bonds -- but not yet. 3. Some stock buyback. Stabilization of share price is the first goal. 4. Dividends ? I think the strong consensus among the AFB is a big "no" for larger dividends.
So, upon further reflection, I have lowered my wishes for strong stock buyback.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 15, 2012 8:19:20 GMT -8
Would a bank analyst like UBS also have a separate division of the company that invests? To be more blunt, could they downgrade to affect the stock price and then take advantage of it in their resulting investment trades, in another division of the company?
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 15, 2012 8:23:30 GMT -8
My preferences for cash usage: 0. Expansion of control of the current supply chains. 1. Expansion of Apple's DNA: content delivery and content. Movie, music and television production and a cable or telecom. 2. Somewhat more aggressive investment in the money markets and bonds -- but not yet. 3. Some stock buyback. Stabilization of share price is the first goal. 4. Dividends ? I think the strong consensus among the AFB is a big "no" for larger dividends. So, upon further reflection, I have lowered my wishes for strong stock buyback. I like 0 and 1, and I think they are already doing #0. Hopefully they are working on, developing #1
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 15, 2012 8:26:02 GMT -8
I believe somebody knew this before us. The NASDAQ-100 will be rebalanced on CHRISTMAS EVE!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 8:49:19 GMT -8
Nasdaq 100 changes:
The "poor" sods on the second list.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 9:29:03 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner. Why is AAPL buying back stock at 8x PE not the best use of 40B on-shore and 80B off-shore cash and ~45$/sh of earnings/yr? Why is it a sign of weakness? Why does AAPL need 120B of cash? that grows has 40B or so a year? The cash is shareholder cash.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 15, 2012 9:42:56 GMT -8
Re Nasdaq replacement
10 companies for 10 companies. Shouldn't be too detrimental. I wonder how those stocks have performed last few weeks
Side note one of ones being removed Is RIMM. Hasn't affected stock price lately since its up 100% since September
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 9:58:53 GMT -8
I believe somebody knew this before us. The NASDAQ-100 will be rebalanced on CHRISTMAS EVE!+1 On 9/30/12, AAPL was 19.72% of QQQ. On 12/14/12, AAPL was 16.01% of QQQ.
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Post by alice on Dec 15, 2012 10:02:19 GMT -8
On 9/30/12, AAPL was 19.72% of QQQ. On 12/14/12, AAPL was 16.01% of QQQ. Where did you get this info - percentage of QQQ? Link please? How often is this info updated? How many shares does it equate to?
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 15, 2012 10:33:49 GMT -8
Re Nasdaq replacement 10 companies for 10 companies. Shouldn't be too detrimental. I wonder how those stocks have performed last few weeks Side note one of ones being removed Is RIMM. Hasn't affected stock price lately since its up 100% since September Rebalancing is based on total capitalization of each company. For instance, if Company AAA worth 100 billion replaced company BBB worth 90 Billion, the difference would be reflected in the overall NASDAQ-100 by reducing the % of the other 99. Time will tell. There should be more news Monday.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 15, 2012 10:43:20 GMT -8
+1 On 9/30/12, AAPL was 19.72% of QQQ. On 12/14/12, AAPL was 16.01% of QQQ. Where did you get this info? Link please? How often is this info updated? I like to hide the links in my posts. It is in the word Christmas Eve. The updated NASDAQ-100 is available at 9:00 AM HERE. AS you can see FB is now included. FB was added last week. That also affected AAPL IMHO. The number of shares = to the % can be found each day by downloading the spreadsheet on the page linked above.
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Post by alice on Dec 15, 2012 11:00:18 GMT -8
The rebalance in April 2011 affected aapl. I hope the sell pressure on aapl will let up after 12/24.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 15, 2012 11:30:40 GMT -8
Would a bank analyst like UBS also have a separate division of the company that invests? To be more blunt, could they downgrade to affect the stock price and then take advantage of it in their resulting investment trades, in another division of the company? Of course. There are supposed to be "Chinese Walls" between these things, so the investment side does not have an advantage thanks to early knowledge, but in practice it's open to debate whether these actually work. If traders are quite openly fiddling things like LIBOR, then the chances are that there are other dubious things going on.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 15, 2012 11:59:47 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens.
And I am for more dividends paid to me, owner of the corporation. If you don't want yours, I'll take them.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 15, 2012 13:11:23 GMT -8
"Apple takes investors on a wild ride" "Apple's stock is extremely valuable and volatile. Its performance affects the global economy, not to mention just about anyone who has a 401(k) or a pension." "To hold Apple stock as an individual investor....requires steady nerves and a strong stomach. It also can involve a level of obsessiveness and dedication." www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-apple-stock-20121215,0,190757.story
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 13:44:13 GMT -8
On 9/30/12, AAPL was 19.72% of QQQ. On 12/14/12, AAPL was 16.01% of QQQ. Where did you get this info - percentage of QQQ? Link please? How often is this info updated? How many shares does it equate to? QQQ HoldingsQQQ Fact Sheet - 09/30/12
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 14:00:59 GMT -8
"Apple takes investors on a wild ride" "Apple's stock is extremely valuable and volatile. Its performance affects the global economy, not to mention just about anyone who has a 401(k) or a pension." "To hold Apple stock as an individual investor....requires steady nerves and a strong stomach. It also can involve a level of obsessiveness and dedication." See also: A lot of other stocks And the quote should read: "To holdtrade Apple stock/derivatives as an individual investor....requires steady nerves and a strong stomach. It also can involve a level of obsessiveness and dedication." Y'know, because there isn't a single person who bought AAPL common before early February 2012 who's actually losing any money right now. Sigh, "journalism".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 14:05:12 GMT -8
iPad, how much, uh, "stock" do you put into NASDAQ re-shuffling? affecting AAPL? As I think I already said, the ride for GMCR and NFLX should look much more interesting on Monday since they actually got booted from the train. Or...not? Phoebear?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 14:27:33 GMT -8
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