|
Post by rob_london on Dec 16, 2012 4:13:18 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 5:44:30 GMT -8
iPad, how much, uh, "stock" do you put into NASDAQ re-shuffling? affecting AAPL? A potential factor that influenced institutional sentiment. I highly doubt the institutions are hearing about this NOW...yes, and I'm sure everyone here is shocked to hear that. There are departments within large banks/investment banks called program desks that do, well basically, programs - one of which are called re-balancings of indices. They do this for a living. There are a plethora of different programs that are done throughout any given month/year. There are always "strong whispers" on what the names may be that are going in or coming out but there is also a sense of the magnitude of what may have to be "lightened up on" (sold) from the index for the re-balancing. I believe the damage to the stock has already been done ahead of time. That being said - there is always the chance of some idiot at CNBC (of which there are scores to choose from) to take a story and spin it even more negatively as it may or may not affect AAPL. Let's face it - they have spun/fabricated stories from LESS facts. My gut tells me that this isn't what will be driving the stock however, ... Technicals n' Taxes (TNT) have been driving this stock. You would think that the selling would be subsiding by now but who knows. Technicals tend to move the stock short term - your day traders/swing traders/ hedge funds etc. -- these are the ones heavily involved right now IMHO....and of course the tax seller. The larger institutions DO NOT trade on technicals - they use fundamentals and yes, like to know what the technicals are but do not act on them. Pension funds, insurance companies,large money managers, etc - not one of them trade on pure technicals. I spent part of my career on what is termed "the buy side" -- I was a client of the investment broker-dealers. Then I spent a portion covering large institutional customers and family offices. They do not trade on pure technicals - it's all about fundamentals - value - growth - etc. It is the hedge-funds that hire the fast money traders who push stocks to critical levels to press stops etc. At least that was my experience. So when all is said and done or as my colleagues in London used to say, it's done and dusted, - and - the stock stabilizes, then the institutional buyers will start to step in again. By the way - it's interesting to see the RIMMs, GMCRs, and NFLXs of this world come out given all the "stories" around those names - the movements should be interesting. No one is playing them for inclusion in an index.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Dec 16, 2012 6:37:12 GMT -8
Still can't get used to Darth Vader in Disneyland My 3 year old calls him Darth Mater
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Dec 16, 2012 7:03:36 GMT -8
That is what dell and HP trades at... Still retarded. as wheeles says, price is a function of liquidity. (pls could you elaborate much more on that - like metrics you use and i you track changes in it). If everyone is selling and no one is buying then it could go much lower. See 2008/9 drop to 80 as an example.Remember if management has the same view as some members of this board not to do a buyback. The stock could be sold into a bidless market Stock price of 80 on 2008 earnings would be a P/E of 11.8, we're already below that now. When AAPL hit a low of 78.2 on January 20, 2009, the P/E was 14.56 using the GAAP at the time and 11.55 with restated earnings using the current GAAP. Using current GAAP is best for apples-to-apples comparisons. When AAPL hit a low of 82.33 on March 9, 2009, the P/E was 15.27 using the GAAP at the time and 11.05 with restated earnings using the current GAAP. We're not there yet, having dropped as low as 11.45. Ex cash with current GAAP, the PE was 6.86, and we're near 8.6 now. To get there again we'd have to add a lot of cash and earnings and drop the stock at least 10% more or so. Two out of three are a lock.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 16, 2012 9:55:50 GMT -8
A potential factor that influenced institutional sentiment. I highly doubt the institutions are hearing about this NOW... (...) My gut tells me that this isn't what will be driving the stock however, ... Technicals n' Taxes (TNT) have been driving this stock. You would think that the selling would be subsiding by now but who knows. Technicals tend to move the stock short term - your day traders/swing traders/ hedge funds etc. -- these are the ones heavily involved right now IMHO....and of course the tax seller. The larger institutions DO NOT trade on technicals - they use fundamentals and yes, like to know what the technicals are but do not act on them. Pension funds, insurance companies,large money managers, etc - not one of them trade on pure technicals. I spent part of my career on what is termed "the buy side" -- I was a client of the investment broker-dealers. Then I spent a portion covering large institutional customers and family offices. They do not trade on pure technicals - it's all about fundamentals - value - growth - etc. It is the hedge-funds that hire the fast money traders who push stocks to critical levels to press stops etc. At least that was my experience. So when all is said and done or as my colleagues in London used to say, it's done and dusted, - and - the stock stabilizes, then the institutional buyers will start to step in again. Agree on first snipped sentence ^^. Agree with much of the rest, but the part I don't really understand is when people say "a stock trades on technicals." Obviously, fundamentals don't drive the stock price short-term. But I don't think technicals drive the stock price either -- they just reflect what's happening (weather report doesn't drive the weather). If technicals did drive the stock price, everyone should have bought at the daily SMA-200 or the weekly SMA-50. Those levels never should have been breached, never mind all the other support levels we sliced through like butter. As best I can figure it, sentiment drives the stock price. The balance of greed/fear and the "perception" of what the future holds drives supply/demand. Supply/demand drives the stock price. And the stock price drives the technicals. sentiment (greed/fear) ---> supply/demand ---> stock price ---> technicals I think the hardest thing for me to understand (because it defies logic) is that fundamentals don't drive sentiment as much as greed and fear. IMHO, behavioral finance (crowd psychology) runs the show.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 16, 2012 10:21:27 GMT -8
I suppose investing in the market is only going to become continually more frustrating as time goes on. We're in an age where we are subjected to thousands of different opinions each and every day. I would say most are clueless and not worth listening to, but your average investor isn't intelligent enough to know what to filter out. Their actions of panicked selling and buying support that.
I remember being a kid in the early 90s checking the stock page of the Washington Post each day. The market is infinitely more complicated and volatile than back then. Now you even have "insiders" like 20DAYEMA leaking questionable insider information on Twitter. The investing community has become too big and complex for anyone to reasonably control.
|
|
|
Post by PikesPique on Dec 16, 2012 10:22:33 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 16, 2012 10:39:07 GMT -8
The incessant need to attribute price action to something absolutely pisses me off.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 16, 2012 11:09:01 GMT -8
falling share price = buyers holding out for lower prices + sellers accepting lower (bid) prices
rising stock price = sellers holding out for higher prices + buyers accepting higher (ask) prices
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 16, 2012 11:14:02 GMT -8
Some good news out of China and Taiwan..... tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/Two noisy store openings and reports of "robust" iPhone 5 sales from local carriers Opening day at Hong Kong's Causeway Bay Apple Store FORTUNE -- Maybe China's "Apple fever" hasn't broken quite yet. Reports of low turnout and videos of nearly empty Apple Stores for the launch of the iPhone 5 in China helped drive Apple's (AAPL) share price in New York to a 10-month low. But a report Saturday in Shanghai Daily suggested that the media was watching the wrong stores. Traffic may have been light at the Apple retail outlets that were selling only unsubsidized iPhones (i.e. starting at US $846), but Apple's partners were having a field day selling the iPhone 5 under contract for as little as US $96. In addition to the 300,000 pre-orders racked up last week by China Unicom (CHU) -- up 50% from the 200,000 it took for the 4S last January -- the carrier sold 5,000 more before Friday noon in Shanghai alone. China Telecom (CHA), for its part, expected to sell 10,00 units in Shanghai by the end of the day Friday. Market watchers described the city's sales as "robust." Across the Taiwan Straight in Taipei, Taiwan's three mobile carriers -- Chunghwa Telecom (CHT), Taiwan Mobile (TWM) and Far EasTone Telecommunications (FET) -- also drew long lines, according to the video report filed by MHz Worldview below. Meanwhile there was no shortage of enthusiasm -- at least among the seemingly endless lines of red-shirted staffers -- at Apple Store openings in Hong Kong and Chengdu.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 11:20:05 GMT -8
Some good news out of China and Taiwan..... tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/Quote tag fixed Two noisy store openings and reports of "robust" iPhone 5 sales from local carriers Opening day at Hong Kong's Causeway Bay Apple Store FORTUNE -- Maybe China's "Apple fever" hasn't broken quite yet. Reports of low turnout and videos of nearly empty Apple Stores for the launch of the iPhone 5 in China helped drive Apple's (AAPL) share price in New York to a 10-month low. But a report Saturday in Shanghai Daily suggested that the media was watching the wrong stores. Traffic may have been light at the Apple retail outlets that were selling only unsubsidized iPhones (i.e. starting at US $846), but Apple's partners were having a field day selling the iPhone 5 under contract for as little as US $96. In addition to the 300,000 pre-orders racked up last week by China Unicom (CHU) -- up 50% from the 200,000 it took for the 4S last January -- the carrier sold 5,000 more before Friday noon in Shanghai alone. China Telecom (CHA), for its part, expected to sell 10,00 units in Shanghai by the end of the day Friday. Market watchers described the city's sales as "robust." Across the Taiwan Straight in Taipei, Taiwan's three mobile carriers -- Chunghwa Telecom (CHT), Taiwan Mobile (TWM) and Far EasTone Telecommunications (FET) -- also drew long lines, according to the video report filed by MHz Worldview below. Meanwhile there was no shortage of enthusiasm -- at least among the seemingly endless lines of red-shirted staffers -- at Apple Store openings in Hong Kong and Chengdu.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 16, 2012 11:35:35 GMT -8
appledoc
Why do you say 20DAYEMA is an insider?
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 16, 2012 11:37:57 GMT -8
I like the fact that Apple has gone to red-shirted staffers. Classy.....
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 16, 2012 11:42:53 GMT -8
Some good news out of China and Taiwan..... tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/Two noisy store openings and reports of "robust" iPhone 5 sales from local carriers Opening day at Hong Kong's Causeway Bay Apple Store FORTUNE -- Maybe China's "Apple fever" hasn't broken quite yet. The videos didn't show what the lines looked like. I saw mostly apple employees and in one video, showed employees only(chengdu). I want to see the lines.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 16, 2012 11:50:54 GMT -8
I like the fact that Apple has gone to red-shirted staffers. Classy..... I still hate the color red, I suppose Apple did this in honor of all the irritating red candles on my stock chart. And yes my tinfoil hat fits nice and tight. Maybe when AAPL's candle sticks turn green they will issue green shirts.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 12:20:54 GMT -8
Are iPhone orders exclusively walk-in in China?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 12:33:26 GMT -8
falling share price = buyers holding out for lower prices + sellers accepting lower (bid) prices rising stock price = sellers holding out for higher prices + buyers accepting higher (ask) prices Lovey, a share price can fall without much selling. AAPL has had several flash crashes. We have to remember that HFT trading accounts for a significant amount of trading. These are just shares passed back and forth. FTR, I am very confident we go below 500 this week.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 12:38:23 GMT -8
I like the fact that Apple has gone to red-shirted staffers. Classy..... I still hate the color red, I suppose Apple did this in honor of all the irritating red candles on my stock chart. And yes my tinfoil hat fits nice and tight. Maybe when AAPL's candle sticks turn green they will issue green shirts. I have always been a huge fan of red, especially something from VS, but lately I am thinking about banning red. ;D Rick, My hat is showing signs of wear. lol
|
|
|
Post by bribery on Dec 16, 2012 12:38:37 GMT -8
appledoc Why do you say 20DAYEMA is an insider? I think he merely pulls data from publicly available Bloomberg terminals.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 16, 2012 12:39:25 GMT -8
falling share price = buyers holding out for lower prices + sellers accepting lower (bid) prices rising stock price = sellers holding out for higher prices + buyers accepting higher (ask) prices Lovey, a share price can fall without much selling. AAPL has had several flash crashes. We have to remember that HFT trading accounts for a significant amount of trading. These are just shares passed back and forth. FTR, I am very confident we go below 500 this week. That's okay. I'm not worried until we break and don't regain the low 470s quickly.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 16, 2012 12:40:18 GMT -8
appledoc Why do you say 20DAYEMA is an insider? I think he merely pulls data from publicly available Bloomberg terminals. The Verizon projections too? That didn't strike me as publicly available data.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 12:41:43 GMT -8
falling share price = buyers holding out for lower prices + sellers accepting lower (bid) prices rising stock price = sellers holding out for higher prices + buyers accepting higher (ask) prices Lovey, a share price can fall without much selling. AAPL has had several flash crashes. +1 We don't know all the unvarnished ways that a flash crash may occur, both in trigger and the avalanche, not to mention the ups and downs in pre-market trading.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 12:59:21 GMT -8
Lovey, a share price can fall without much selling. AAPL has had several flash crashes. +1 We don't know all the unvarnished ways that a flash crash may occur, both in trigger and the avalanche, not to mention the ups and downs in pre-market trading. During this decline we have seen several gap ups to fulfill a fib number then a sell-off to follow. I have never understood why there is a PM or AH market. Always seemed crooked to me.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 13:34:19 GMT -8
I highly doubt the institutions are hearing about this NOW... (...) My gut tells me that this isn't what will be driving the stock however, ... Technicals n' Taxes (TNT) have been driving this stock. You would think that the selling would be subsiding by now but who knows. Technicals tend to move the stock short term - your day traders/swing traders/ hedge funds etc. -- these are the ones heavily involved right now IMHO....and of course the tax seller. The larger institutions DO NOT trade on technicals - they use fundamentals and yes, like to know what the technicals are but do not act on them. Pension funds, insurance companies,large money managers, etc - not one of them trade on pure technicals. I spent part of my career on what is termed "the buy side" -- I was a client of the investment broker-dealers. Then I spent a portion covering large institutional customers and family offices. They do not trade on pure technicals - it's all about fundamentals - value - growth - etc. It is the hedge-funds that hire the fast money traders who push stocks to critical levels to press stops etc. At least that was my experience. So when all is said and done or as my colleagues in London used to say, it's done and dusted, - and - the stock stabilizes, then the institutional buyers will start to step in again. Agree on first snipped sentence ^^. Agree with much of the rest, but the part I don't really understand is when people say "a stock trades on technicals." Obviously, fundamentals don't drive the stock price short-term. But I don't think technicals drive the stock price either -- they just reflect what's happening (weather report doesn't drive the weather). If technicals did drive the stock price, everyone should have bought at the daily SMA-200 or the weekly SMA-50. Those levels never should have been breached, never mind all the other support levels we sliced through like butter. As best I can figure it, sentiment drives the stock price. The balance of greed/fear and the "perception" of what the future holds drives supply/demand. Supply/demand drives the stock price. And the stock price drives the technicals. sentiment (greed/fear) ---> supply/demand ---> stock price ---> technicals I think the hardest thing for me to understand (because it defies logic) is that fundamentals don't drive sentiment as much as greed and fear. IMHO, behavioral finance (crowd psychology) runs the show. I don't think our comments are that far apart. I agree that fear and greed are large drivers of stock price but I would argue that many day traders know where the important "levels" are and they will press it fully knowing that it will set off triggers. Manipulation? Hell, ask John Mack or Lloyd Blankfein...what were they feeling in 2008 when they felt there was an assault on their shares until they stopped the shorting of shares on bank stocks during that brief period to let some of the sanity return. Yes, Virginia there is a Santa Claus and there really are EOs out there. So I do agree with you on behavioral finance...but now overlay it with intelligent beings who know just where to take it...and you find yourself in a downward cascade. This has - at least - been my experience....FWIW....but I don't think we are far apart.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 13:37:59 GMT -8
+1 We don't know all the unvarnished ways that a flash crash may occur, both in trigger and the avalanche, not to mention the ups and downs in pre-market trading. During this decline we have seen several gap ups to fulfill a fib number then a sell-off to follow. I have never understood why there is a PM or AH market. Always seemed crooked to me. I never understood PM and AH - one cannot say it is for liquidity purposes because there basically is very little liquidity during that time. To be honest - I have seen trading desks make their biggest spreads and profits while trading during that time. It serves no purpose other than to line the pockets of the firms that are making the spreads and collecting a commission. We have trading hours - trade during that time frame...end of story.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 16, 2012 13:58:24 GMT -8
Dividends are not tax efficient. Dividend rate wll rise to somewhere between 20-30%. Compared to what? Me getting nothing of Apple's quarterly 10 or 11 figure profits? That's ridiculous. It is also a FACT that it absurd to suggest a company with Apple's sheet - not to mention its culture - would or should borrow any money. The whole reason Apple started hoarding cash was Jobs' fear of debt and rainy days. The Mini is half the profit of the iPad? From what orifice are you extracting these preposterous numbers? I'd say, "citation needed," but there is no possibility of such a citation, unless you have somehow cracked Apple's internal servers. Let's just say that, the more I learn about stockholders, the more glad I am that shareholders do not exercise operational control of the companies I hold stock in. I really need a break from this board, before I have a mental break.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 14:11:59 GMT -8
I was wondering if anyone else had email issues. Our email provider (COX) has been down since Friday.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 14:18:54 GMT -8
No email issues. Diagnostic time:
1. can you login with browser ? 2. try making a new user account 3. pitchforks on Monday
good luck.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 14:31:44 GMT -8
No email issues. Diagnostic time: 1. can you login with browser ? 2. try making a new user account 3. pitchforks on Monday good luck. No Tetra, it is a provider issue. After calling the tech line they said they have problems across the US.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Dec 16, 2012 14:48:57 GMT -8
Hobbit film, starring Martin Freeman and Ian McCellan, gets a solid B+. Star Trek Into Darkness will be released in theaters summer 2013. I'm thinking we need more anecdotal reports from retail locations: Apple, Walmart and specialty locations. We will see The Hobbit tomorrow, but let's focus on what really matters. Disney bought Lucasfilm, and we're getting more Star Wars movies! The Hobbit was quite good. Haven't read it in a long time, but I imagine some of the negative film reviews must be from folks who didn't read it or didn't appreciate the book. Or maybe they just don't like the 48fps 3D, but we saw it in 2D. Or maybe they didn't like the length. It does have more of the extended version feel, but the extended versions of the LOTR movies were better anyway. A+
|
|