Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 12, 2018 3:11:27 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Nov 12, 2018 5:36:07 GMT -8
Sub $200....yikes... hope someone is buying TFD
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 12, 2018 5:46:45 GMT -8
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Post by lulli on Nov 12, 2018 5:47:18 GMT -8
There are these news about some defective iPhone X screens that will be replaced for free, but what people (sellers?) may fail to realize in heir hurry is that those issues apply to last year’s model. Nothing wrong with iPhone XS....
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Post by appledoc on Nov 12, 2018 6:13:05 GMT -8
Some JPM clown cut his $270 target down to $266. So naturally the 1.5% target cut that is still >30% higher than current price sends us down a couple percent. I’m just sitting back waiting to get in here. Pretty obvious that Apple sentiment is negative, as is tech sentiment in general.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 12, 2018 6:20:22 GMT -8
What are the chances we'll be at this price level on Thursday (Dividend Payment)?
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Post by rmhe1999 on Nov 12, 2018 6:52:46 GMT -8
Come on folks. We've all been here a thousand times. It's how the big boys make their money. They push AAPL down time and time again based on "channel checks" or "supplier weakness" in order to get it on the cheap. Then, miraculously a couple of months later Apple blows out the quarter and all is well again. Granted this time reaction to earnings may be muted as WS digests the new reporting structure. Still though, nothing with the underlying business has changed. Apple is still earning about a billion dollars a day in revenue as I type this. Their war chest of cash is buying back stock at a discount right now, putting our money to good use. I for one, am buying the dip, but scaling in with small purchases as we go down. I'll likely dip in and use a little margin too; but nothing extreme. Over the last 10 years this is how I've grown my Apple position.Buy on the way down, sell on the way up, keep the profit in the form of shares and grow my position over time. To reiterate, nothing has changed with Apple. Have faith in our favorite fruit company.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 12, 2018 7:03:57 GMT -8
Come on folks. We've all been here a thousand times. It's how the big boys make their money. They push AAPL down time and time again based on "channel checks" or "supplier weakness" in order to get it on the cheap. Then, miraculously a couple of months later Apple blows out the quarter and all is well again. Granted this time reaction to earnings may be muted as WS digests the new reporting structure. Still though, nothing with the underlying business has changed. Apple is still earning about a billion dollars a day in revenue as I type this. Their war chest of cash is buying back stock at a discount right now, putting our money to good use. I for one, am buying the dip, but scaling in with small purchases as we go down. I'll likely dip in and use a little margin too; but nothing extreme. Over the last 10 years this is how I've grown my Apple position.Buy on the way down, sell on the way up, keep the profit in the form of shares and grow my position over time. To reiterate, nothing has changed with Apple. Have faith in our favorite fruit company. Couldn't agree more. I've continued scaling in some purchases as we dip here, trying very hard to not go all-in, just in case we see levels even lower in the coming days. But at least the dividend reinvestment will pick up a little more AAPL on Thursday at these levels.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 12, 2018 7:15:47 GMT -8
Maybe Apple has another source? This doesn't mean much to me. Typical knee jerk reaction.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 12, 2018 7:20:34 GMT -8
Come on folks. We've all been here a thousand times. It's how the big boys make their money. They push AAPL down time and time again based on "channel checks" or "supplier weakness" in order to get it on the cheap. Then, miraculously a couple of months later Apple blows out the quarter and all is well again. Granted this time reaction to earnings may be muted as WS digests the new reporting structure. Still though, nothing with the underlying business has changed. Apple is still earning about a billion dollars a day in revenue as I type this. Their war chest of cash is buying back stock at a discount right now, putting our money to good use. I for one, am buying the dip, but scaling in with small purchases as we go down. I'll likely dip in and use a little margin too; but nothing extreme. Over the last 10 years this is how I've grown my Apple position.Buy on the way down, sell on the way up, keep the profit in the form of shares and grow my position over time. To reiterate, nothing has changed with Apple. Have faith in our favorite fruit company. Disagree - this sell off is about the fact that Apple confirmed with their guidance that iPhone unit sales are going to take a large hit. This is in a quarter with full iPhone XS availability and two months of iPhone XR availability which compares favourably to last year when the iPhone 8 was a boring update and the iPhone X didn’t come out until November. AAPL held up very well pre-earnings due to optimism, but is now following and leading the market down because of guidance. Marginal overall revenue increase and flat gross margins despite massive price hikes is not a great growth story. Agree with the rest of your post - the buybacks and annual dividend increases make AAPL an easy long term hold and a good stock to accumulate on corrections, but it’s not going to give you the most growth. I see more upside in FB right now and lot of other smaller cap names.
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Post by gtrplyr on Nov 12, 2018 7:46:45 GMT -8
How many times does Tim Cook have to tell WS that it is impossible to judge demand by looking at the supply chain? Apple's supply chain is enormously complex and without direct insider information it's futile to try and use it to gauge demand.
WS never learns and short term "investors" get burned and bitter in the process .....
Yes ... this sucks .... it will pass and in the meantime ...
CHEERS to the longs !
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Post by macprof on Nov 12, 2018 7:51:41 GMT -8
Disagree - this sell off is about the fact that Apple confirmed with their guidance that iPhone unit sales are going to take a large hit. I don't recall hearing that. My impression was that they were calling for numbers close to what analysts were predicting except for currency headwinds.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Nov 12, 2018 7:54:49 GMT -8
Disagree - this sell off is about the fact that Apple confirmed with their guidance that iPhone unit sales are going to take a large hit. I don't recall hearing that. My impression was that they were calling for numbers close to what analysts were predicting except for currency headwinds. That's because Apple (Tim, et. al.) didn't say that. Tuffet is taking Apple's statement that they will no longer report unit sales numbers as evidence that sales are about to fall or take a "large hit." I disagree.
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Post by sponge on Nov 12, 2018 7:57:33 GMT -8
On the top end of guidance we are looking at a 3% drop in iPhone sales. We may get crappy guidance which will show further drop.
This is what has WS spooked.
From a TA perspective we could be looking at 180 and yes even 150 In the next two months.
I expect us to drop below 200 MA making 190 gap the perfect place.
Made my 700% on puts and have jumped back in with shares.
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Post by macster on Nov 12, 2018 8:03:07 GMT -8
The XR was not available in the sept qtr which suppressed iPhones yet still beat the whisper numbers on rev. and eps. . Low guidance was a no brainer considering macroeconomic and threat of China not cooperating with the free and fair trade mantra. The US economy is boosting personal spending and wages. will have a record dec qtr. IMO.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 12, 2018 9:00:00 GMT -8
I don't recall hearing that. My impression was that they were calling for numbers close to what analysts were predicting except for currency headwinds. That's because Apple (Tim, et. al.) didn't say that. Tuffet is taking Apple's statement that they will no longer report unit sales numbers as evidence that sales are about to fall or take a "large hit." I disagree. I’m taking the statement along with their guidance. Factor in the obvious growth in Services and Other Products, factor in the ASPs of the new iPhones, and tell me how units can go up without a massive sandbag.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 12, 2018 11:21:12 GMT -8
This drop is perfect for Apple and WB to scoop up discounted shares, along with anyone looking to reinvest their upcoming dividends.
Don't mope, rejoice.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Nov 12, 2018 12:18:18 GMT -8
Two of LITE competitors IIVI and FNSR recently merged... “a year ago, Apple invested $390 million in Finisar.” Could it be that the merged company has production capability coming online or excess capacity, and Apple moved some of LITEs business? Maybe IIVI nor FNSR are in a black out period. www.thestreet.com/technology/apple-supplier-finisar-snapped-up-for-3-2-billion-14775686One of Apple Inc.'s (https://www.thestreet.com/quote/AAPL.html) suppliers of laser and optical equipment, Finisar Corp. (https://www.thestreet.com/quote/FNSR.html) , reached a deal to be bought for about $3.2 billion by II-VI Inc. (https://www.thestreet.com/quote/IIVI.html) . Shares of Finisar closed up significantly at 15.4% higher to hit $21.79 on Friday. II-VI's stock closed down nearly 19% at $38.01. Under the deal, II-VI is buying Finisar in a "merger" agreement of cash and shares of II-VI common stock. The transaction values Finisar at $26 a share, or about $3.2 billion in equity value. Finisar shareholders would own nearly a third of the combined company. II-VI is a maker of electronics components, developing engineered materials and opto-electronic components. Just a year ago, Apple invested $390 million in Finisar to increase the company's research and development and production of a type of laser used in Apple's iPhone X camera.
With the Finisar buy, II-VI said the company would become a "formidable" industry leader in photonics and compound semiconductor products for communications, consumer electronics, military, industrial processing lasers, automotive semiconductor equipment and life sciences.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Nov 12, 2018 12:40:27 GMT -8
Bingo? July 2, 2018 at 5:00 AM EDT Finisar to Expand 3D VCSEL Production Capacity with its new Sherman, Texas Facility SUNNYVALE, Calif. and SHERMAN, Texas, July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), a world leader in 3D Sensing VCSEL (Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser) technology, today announced an upcoming ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate its new manufacturing facility in Sherman, Texas. Finisar will use the site to increase production capacity of its VCSELs and related 3D Sensing technologies, used in a wide range of applications. The ribbon-cutting event will be held on Monday, July 9th with speakers from Finisar’s executive management team, including CEO Michael Hurlston, as well as local community leaders.
Finisar has been working diligently to prepare the site for operations. The building, formerly owned by MEMC and SunEdison, has been under renovation since December 2017 and is on target to commence production by the end of this calendar year. It is currently certified as clean room operational and the first production tooling has been installed and qualified. The company has hired nearly 200 employees, including the operations and support staff necessary to begin production. Finisar expects to expand hiring further later this year to support the anticipated ramp to high volume production.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 12, 2018 12:57:48 GMT -8
Bingo? July 2, 2018 at 5:00 AM EDT Finisar to Expand 3D VCSEL Production Capacity with its new Sherman, Texas Facility SUNNYVALE, Calif. and SHERMAN, Texas, July 02, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR), a world leader in 3D Sensing VCSEL (Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser) technology, today announced an upcoming ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate its new manufacturing facility in Sherman, Texas. Finisar will use the site to increase production capacity of its VCSELs and related 3D Sensing technologies, used in a wide range of applications. The ribbon-cutting event will be held on Monday, July 9th with speakers from Finisar’s executive management team, including CEO Michael Hurlston, as well as local community leaders. Finisar has been working diligently to prepare the site for operations. The building, formerly owned by MEMC and SunEdison, has been under renovation since December 2017 and is on target to commence production by the end of this calendar year. It is currently certified as clean room operational and the first production tooling has been installed and qualified. The company has hired nearly 200 employees, including the operations and support staff necessary to begin production. Finisar expects to expand hiring further later this year to support the anticipated ramp to high volume production. Nice work Ono. It certainly seems like a reasonable explanation to me.
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Post by mw1 on Nov 12, 2018 13:14:28 GMT -8
That new Finisar facility in Sherman TX is a mamoth 700,000 sf building and complements an existing facility a few miles South in the Plano/McKinney area.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2018 13:24:34 GMT -8
Tim Cook has said repeatedly that Apple's supply chain has redundancies built into it, and that channel checks are fool's gold. The idea that some supplier nobody ever heard of is an accurate bellweather of Apple's sales or revenues is ludicrous. The sad thing is the total lack of accountability with these dart throwing bozos. Nobody ever goes back and looks at their terrible prognostications. Much like technical analysts.
Charlatans the whole bunch of them. But incorrigible is right, cheap shares for buybacks. Gotta hold our mud and ride it out. Eventually, there's a price premium for a company that generates a billion dollars a day. Only a dumbass could say that is bad news.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 12, 2018 13:29:42 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Nov 12, 2018 15:16:37 GMT -8
Tim Cook has said repeatedly that Apple's supply chain has redundancies built into it, and that channel checks are fool's gold. The idea that some supplier nobody ever heard of is an accurate bellweather of Apple's sales or revenues is ludicrous. The sad thing is the total lack of accountability with these dart throwing bozos. Nobody ever goes back and looks at their terrible prognostications. Much like technical analysts. Yup. We've been doing this song and dance for a good 10 years now. It's ridiculous.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 12, 2018 15:23:34 GMT -8
Was at the Toledo Apple Store last Friday to buy an iPad replacement. The store was clearly busy.
Asked the salesperson which iPhone was selling best. She said the new XS, not the XR.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 12, 2018 16:30:10 GMT -8
As we start another slide amidst the usual FUD and distractions, I just want to remind the brethren to take the long view. All the forecasts I can find predict that 5G will be a done deal by the end of 2020. This means that, instead of 1/3 of iPhones being replaced each year we should see a massive upgrade when the first 5G iPhones become available. This also implies that the last 4G upgrade may not do so well and the year after this massive migration will suffer from a "tough compare". But we have been through all this before. And this is without any new products.
I don't know enough to try to predict the short term, I doubt that anyone (except for sponge) really can. It is like trying to predict the waves on the sea. But the tides? That is another thing entirely.
Keep the faith.
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Post by sponge on Nov 12, 2018 17:28:34 GMT -8
As we start another slide amidst the usual FUD and distractions, I just want to remind the brethren to take the long view. All the forecasts I can find predict that 5G will be a done deal by the end of 2020. This means that, instead of 1/3 of iPhones being replaced each year we should see a massive upgrade when the first 5G iPhones become available. This also implies that the last 4G upgrade may not do so well and the year after this massive migration will suffer from a "tough compare". But we have been through all this before. And this is without any new products. I don't know enough to try to predict the short term, I doubt that anyone (except for sponge) really can. It is like trying to predict the waves on the sea. But the tides? That is another thing entirely. Keep the faith. Well said. Short term we may be given an opportunity like in February. We we hit bottom, I think we in good shape to go straight up 22% or more. I really think Apple kept guidance low. The XR will do well but it wont take off right away.
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Post by pauls on Nov 12, 2018 18:54:12 GMT -8
Trump factor very much in play. He's like an arsonist complaining about the fire department for doing their jobs. I know, it's just part of the Art of the Deal. I don't mean to be overly political, but how is this tweet helpful for those invested in equities? I find it chilling.
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Post by macster on Nov 12, 2018 21:52:04 GMT -8
Trump factor very much in play. He's like an arsonist complaining about the fire department for doing their jobs. I know, it's just part of the Art of the Deal. I don't mean to be overly political, but how is this tweet helpful for those invested in equities? I find it chilling. From his point of view his tweet can be referring the hostile press and Dems promising to tie up legislation with endless investigation for 2 years. One element of the gloom and doom that is running rampant at the moment.
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Post by BillH on Nov 12, 2018 22:55:06 GMT -8
Trump factor very much in play. He's like an arsonist complaining about the fire department for doing their jobs. I know, it's just part of the Art of the Deal. I don't mean to be overly political, but how is this tweet helpful for those invested in equities? I find it chilling. He's so delusional. Clearly it was the death of Stan Lee that sent the market into a nosedive. :-o
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