Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 3:30:30 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 5:19:51 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 14, 2018 5:49:55 GMT -8
I'd be embarrassed if I were Guggenheim. That note basically just admits to all that they 'don't get AAPL'. On the plus side, AAPL is up $1.34 as of 8:47am. I'm not calling a bottom here or anything, but to me it's a very positive sign when bad news comes in and the stock doesn't move down.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 14, 2018 5:51:28 GMT -8
Reversal in AAPL. Up around $1.50 now and climbing.
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Post by elmar on Nov 14, 2018 6:03:50 GMT -8
So did we already fill the gap or not yet? I think we just "nearly" filled the gap.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 6:11:41 GMT -8
Unfortunately Elmar, AAPL didn't quite fill the gap. Hoping for a quick fill and strong bounce off the bottom.
I'm calling it $189, Sponge and others have called it a bit lower. My price is because I fundamentally view gaps as buying opportunities and end to place orders toward the higher end of a gap.
Note to others... While this as a buying opportunity, we are still in the falling knife stage... Trade with caution.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 14, 2018 6:32:44 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Nov 14, 2018 7:21:58 GMT -8
Here's 189. Gap filled?
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Post by sponge on Nov 14, 2018 7:40:58 GMT -8
Bought a ton of Dec calls almost at the low.
I think we will revisit the 180s in January but we should recover nicely from here. Look for a nice bounce next week.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 14, 2018 7:48:33 GMT -8
I put a bid in for the Jan 2019 $200 call @ $5.40 I just missed it filling .
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 7:52:32 GMT -8
Let's hope that was the bottom.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 7:53:41 GMT -8
Sponge, I expect a significant bounce tomorrow... If not, I'll be reinvesting dividends.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 14, 2018 7:54:02 GMT -8
I put a bid in for the Jan 2019 $200 call @ $5.40 I just missed it filling . Filled. Now watch the bottom drop out
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Post by sponge on Nov 14, 2018 8:03:48 GMT -8
Sponge, I expect a significant bounce tomorrow... If not, I'll be reinvesting dividends. Yes But I think we will still be in the low 190s beginning of next week. I pay less attention to Aapl and more to the spx. Dec looks a little scary but the recovery I expect should take place at the beginning of the month and sell off into Jan.
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Post by mrentropy on Nov 14, 2018 9:17:52 GMT -8
We are at a sub 30 RSI, which is typically bounce territory. Not sure it will stick, but this is pretty oversold on a short term basis. You got to believe whoever is on the buyback lever is enjoying the pricing though.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Nov 14, 2018 9:22:44 GMT -8
Well hello Bear Market territory! Can't say I'm happy to make your acquaintance.
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Post by sponge on Nov 14, 2018 9:34:22 GMT -8
I have waited 4 years for an opportunity like today. It was nice to have had the cash and have been buying all morning.
We had one back in February and I think we will have one more in January.
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Post by carbonate24 on Nov 14, 2018 9:37:27 GMT -8
AAPL is 4th on the "Buying on Weakness" rankings so far today.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 14, 2018 10:20:51 GMT -8
I put a bid in for the Jan 2019 $200 call @ $5.40 I just missed it filling . Filled. Now watch the bottom drop out Made another buy @ $4.65 for an average cost of $5.02. That's it. I hate gambling.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 10:23:53 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Nov 14, 2018 10:59:43 GMT -8
Made a protest buy. Sold a small position in Seaspan Corp. SSW that was up 30 some percent and bought some 's.
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 14, 2018 11:01:58 GMT -8
Not surprising to see so many analysts jumping on Apple's most recent earnings report because it's the same thing that happens, year after year. I wonder if Apple has ever made it through an entire year without having analysts predict storm clouds on the horizon for Apple. Consequently, I'm very happy that Apple has now spoiled their game. In a very old movie, War Games, during the final dramatic scenes, the computer that was programed to simulate nuclear attack and response repeatedly went through, first, the simple game of Tic Tac Toe followed by repeatedly modeling the various nuclear strike scenarios before finally announcing to the person who programed it: A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
I feel the same about the continuing "game" with the analysts. So when I came upon the following comment over on Seeking Alpha, under an article titled, "Reporting Change Hiccups Aside, Long Term Value Still Remains In Apple", I thought it expressed my feelings exactly. Rogerama Comments 32 | + Follow I’m always surprised that when Apple’s results don’t agree with analysts’ consensus, the headlines read “Apple fails to meet analysts’ expectations” rather than “Analysts fail to predict Apple performance.” Year after year Apple’s predictions are reliable—so I rely on them! Who needs analysts?
The analysts can complain about Apple's decision not to post future iPhone numbers all they want but they have nobody to blame but themselves. Apple has given a guideline range for some time now and the analysts loved it because they could then add to the top of the guideline range and trash Apple if they fell short, when they instead should have been judging Apple with regard to how they met their own guidance.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 14, 2018 11:51:02 GMT -8
"While AAPL could keep climbing from here, I'd more expect a modest pullback, sometime". --4aapl
It was bound to happen sometime. In retrospect, I should have expected it just from the pullbacks other stocks have had. It's that time in the market cycle, and all Apple (opps, sorry....that's AAPL. Separation of stock and company) needed was just a little catalyst. What's interesting when comparing it to many of AAPL's other pullbacks over the past 21 years is that AAPL was one of the last to have it's pullback. Part of that is profits (huge profits!), but part of that is adding a few 0's to the market cap, such that it's an entirely different company than when Microsoft invested a little in Apple in '97.
With AAPL having touched being down 20% from the peak, and RSI touching 30 (or just below), this seems like a good place to recover from...as long as Apple can keep profits growing even if certain unit sales flatten or even shrink.
But then there's the whole market. In the medium term, the market is likely to turn negative. That's probably over a year away, but likely less than 3, IMO.
Being down 20%, that takes a 25% gain to reach the high again. I may pick up some more on the way up, after a 10% recovery. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Buffet give some positive words once 8-10% off the lows, and after adding to his pile.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Nov 14, 2018 12:09:27 GMT -8
“Dialog Semiconductor said on Wednesday it was not seeing a hit to demand from its main customer, Apple Inc, after some suppliers issued profit warnings due to weakness in iPhone sales,” Douglas Busvine reports for Reuters. “The Anglo-German chip designer said its power management products were installed in many Apple products – and not just the latest iPhones that can be unlocked using facial recognition technology.”
Some analyst issuing downgrades are still referencing Apple’s component cutbacks (cancelations) of Lumentum’s component, as their basis. No reporting that Apple likely moved production to the company in which it has invested $390M.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 14, 2018 12:36:18 GMT -8
“Dialog Semiconductor said on Wednesday it was not seeing a hit to demand from its main customer, Apple Inc, after some suppliers issued profit warnings due to weakness in iPhone sales,” Douglas Busvine reports for Reuters. “The Anglo-German chip designer said its power management products were installed in many Apple products – and not just the latest iPhones that can be unlocked using facial recognition technology.” Some analyst issuing downgrades are still referencing Apple’s component cutbacks (cancelations) of Lumentum’s component, as their basis. No reporting that Apple likely moved production to the company in which it has invested $390M. For any of these component cutback stories to hold any weight, *all* components have to be cut back, not just a few select ones (from possible multiple sources). Displays, chips, sensors, batteries, etc.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2018 15:26:23 GMT -8
Just because we feel due for a bounce, doesn't mean it's coming or that it's going to be very sizable when sentiment is this negative. RSI is actually a hair above 30, so we haven't technically entered oversold territory yet.
There was heavy resistance at the SMA200 today. I am looking for a reclaim before considering any moves. Long term, I think this is a fine entry point. But if you're playing short term, be careful.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 14, 2018 15:34:57 GMT -8
“Dialog Semiconductor said on Wednesday it was not seeing a hit to demand from its main customer, Apple Inc, after some suppliers issued profit warnings due to weakness in iPhone sales,” Douglas Busvine reports for Reuters. “The Anglo-German chip designer said its power management products were installed in many Apple products – and not just the latest iPhones that can be unlocked using facial recognition technology.” Some analyst issuing downgrades are still referencing Apple’s component cutbacks (cancelations) of Lumentum’s component, as their basis. No reporting that Apple likely moved production to the company in which it has invested $390M. For any of these component cutback stories to hold any weight, *all* components have to be cut back, not just a few select ones (from possible multiple sources). Displays, chips, sensors, batteries, etc. While I generally agree, at the same time there is an important note. With multi-sourced components, there's no reason that if Apple was cutting production, that they would cut them equally from all suppliers. I know I would cut from the one that didn't give as good of price, had production or quality issues, or in some other way wasn't as good or consistent. Maybe even from the one that leaked info, about upcoming production or production cuts. How's that for a self-fulfilling prophecy?
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Post by hledgard on Nov 14, 2018 15:43:51 GMT -8
I still believe not reporting unit sales of the iPhone is a mistake. Even psychologically, as a product people associate Apple with it. I miss not seeing the unit sales, and less interested in holding AAPL as a stock. I don't think I am the only one.
And really, all these analysts are not that dumb. They know Apple has other products and services.
Apple is not really a "company" for me. It is its products that I believe in.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Nov 14, 2018 16:44:29 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 14, 2018 18:26:06 GMT -8
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