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Post by seabiscuit on Dec 16, 2012 22:22:16 GMT -8
I highly doubt the institutions are hearing about this NOW... (...) My gut tells me that this isn't what will be driving the stock however, ... Technicals n' Taxes (TNT) have been driving this stock. You would think that the selling would be subsiding by now but who knows. Technicals tend to move the stock short term - your day traders/swing traders/ hedge funds etc. -- these are the ones heavily involved right now IMHO....and of course the tax seller. The larger institutions DO NOT trade on technicals - they use fundamentals and yes, like to know what the technicals are but do not act on them. Pension funds, insurance companies,large money managers, etc - not one of them trade on pure technicals. I spent part of my career on what is termed "the buy side" -- I was a client of the investment broker-dealers. Then I spent a portion covering large institutional customers and family offices. They do not trade on pure technicals - it's all about fundamentals - value - growth - etc. It is the hedge-funds that hire the fast money traders who push stocks to critical levels to press stops etc. At least that was my experience. So when all is said and done or as my colleagues in London used to say, it's done and dusted, - and - the stock stabilizes, then the institutional buyers will start to step in again. Agree on first snipped sentence ^^. Agree with much of the rest, but the part I don't really understand is when people say "a stock trades on technicals." Obviously, fundamentals don't drive the stock price short-term. But I don't think technicals drive the stock price either -- they just reflect what's happening (weather report doesn't drive the weather). If technicals did drive the stock price, everyone should have bought at the daily SMA-200 or the weekly SMA-50. Those levels never should have been breached, never mind all the other support levels we sliced through like butter. As best I can figure it, sentiment drives the stock price. The balance of greed/fear and the "perception" of what the future holds drives supply/demand. Supply/demand drives the stock price. And the stock price drives the technicals. sentiment (greed/fear) ---> supply/demand ---> stock price ---> technicals I think the hardest thing for me to understand (because it defies logic) is that fundamentals don't drive sentiment as much as greed and fear. IMHO, behavioral finance (crowd psychology) runs the show. Very well said. While I have good grasp of fundamental analysis and a fair understanding of TA I ultimatley make short-term option positions based on where I think sentiment is and heading. But, I totally missed the turnaround in sentiment on Apple.
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Post by kloot on Dec 16, 2012 22:22:26 GMT -8
Seems like they usually do sales press releases on Monday morning, not Sunday night. maybe that citi report was the last straw and management got fed up. me likey.
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Post by seabiscuit on Dec 16, 2012 22:28:38 GMT -8
Seems like they usually do sales press releases on Monday morning, not Sunday night. maybe that citi report was the last straw and management got fed up. me likey. I think you are correct in your assessment. There are too many analysts trying to justify their salaries.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 16, 2012 22:32:18 GMT -8
With all the usual disclaimers about the uselessness of futures, Nasdaq futures are down 1% right now.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 22:33:42 GMT -8
Seems like they usually do sales press releases on Monday morning, not Sunday night. maybe that citi report was the last straw and management got fed up. me likey. I do not think it had anything to do with the CITI report. I think it had everything to do with China's time. It is Monday over there now. They put out the release after the weekend was over China time. I still like the MS smack-down.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 22:34:55 GMT -8
With all the usual disclaimers about the uselessness of futures, Nasdaq futures are down 1% right now. Not surprised, everyone got the news about the CITI downgrade, they will ignore Apple and MS.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 16, 2012 22:39:40 GMT -8
With all the usual disclaimers about the uselessness of futures, Nasdaq futures are down 1% right now. Green at the moment. Index Futures
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 16, 2012 22:43:22 GMT -8
Seems like they usually do sales press releases on Monday morning, not Sunday night. maybe that citi report was the last straw and management got fed up. me likey. It was Monday morning China time!!!
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 23:02:39 GMT -8
Yup. It was morning in Beijing. And for futures you have places like Bloomberg, CNBC and the now-Investing.com.
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Post by steeler on Dec 16, 2012 23:08:34 GMT -8
I like the fact that Apple has gone to red-shirted staffers. Classy..... Red represents Happiness and Fortune in China.
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Post by steeler on Dec 16, 2012 23:15:53 GMT -8
It is real. I have the report. They have changed their mind from 3 weeks ago. They stated that the "buy" was for trade, not investment. The "buy" was for a "trade!?" THREE WEEKS AGO? The stock has done nothing but go down since then. What are they frigging talking about?! Unbelievable. My thoughts exactly.
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Post by steeler on Dec 16, 2012 23:27:38 GMT -8
That's almost like the big F.U. to the goons at Citi! ;D Well. if Citi is always doing exactly opposite of what they say, they are actually buying buying buying...
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