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Post by rob_london on Dec 17, 2012 9:02:22 GMT -8
Obviously treat with the necessary caution and we don't know the numbers shipped but someone tweeted Horace and PED this:
"heard it from Apple local reseller this afternoon: iPhone 5 sold out in 48 hours in Indonesia".
With a population of 248.6 million and a median age of 28 years, the potential market for Apple in Indonesia is huge.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 9:04:29 GMT -8
Obviously treat with the necessary caution and we don't know the numbers shipped but someone tweeted Horace and PED this: "heard it from Apple local reseller this afternoon: iPhone 5 sold out in 48 hours in Indonesia". There must be a way for them to make this sound bad...how about "supply concerns in Indonesia" or something to that effect?
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Post by bribery on Dec 17, 2012 9:04:34 GMT -8
Obviously treat with the necessary caution but someone tweeted Horace and PED this: "heard it from Apple local reseller this afternoon: iPhone 5 sold out in 48 hours in Indonesia". It did as well in Malasia's 3rd carrier's online store. www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/digi13/Article/It's only available walk-in.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 17, 2012 9:06:49 GMT -8
power lunch has the citi guy on right now. i feel like they are kind of mocking him as to how its possible to change your outlook on the stock in 20 days.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2012 9:15:06 GMT -8
power lunch has the citi guy on right now. i feel like they are kind of mocking him as to how its possible to change your outlook on the stock in 20 days. "Ahem (clears throat) ... well Scott, it's a little of both." He has no clue and is all over the place - it could be up - it could be down. All these guys should walk off their own (fiscal) cliff. WTF is the accountability on your calls? ??
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 17, 2012 9:17:41 GMT -8
I saw your StockTwits tweet. Nice butt kicking.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 9:25:18 GMT -8
Hmm pre market buyers responding more to down grade than china news. Interesting... Max put OI at 520 with second most at 500. Guessing max pain is well north 530ish or higher...hopefully some saving grace... OI at the Open was 4,398,140. That's as high as I've seen it since early Spring. It is currently higher than day after ATH by 47%. Since then Calls have increased by 842,000, while Puts have increased by 58,000. It appears that further out Puts are being Closed, while new Puts (much fewer than being closed) are being Opened closer in (two weeks?). Calls are increasing more than two weeks out by a large degree. Earnings rally to commence right after Christmas? Options OI seems to indicate so.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 17, 2012 9:25:22 GMT -8
Let us review: 3 new CITI guys ANALysts. One guy talks to suppliers. He talks to Samesong. The Samesong guy says; Apple orders are way down! 1) the Samesong employee may have been told by his boss to say that to cut interest in their competitor. 2) orders may be down because guidance is always down 20% for the March quarter. 3) orders may be down at Samesong because Apple has chosen new suppliers. 4) new iPhone for WWDC in June 5) iPhone 5 not selling that great....
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Post by appledoc on Dec 17, 2012 9:30:58 GMT -8
I'm getting antsy. I don't think we're going to get that ideal capitulation bottom. It's going to be sneakier this time.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2012 9:35:22 GMT -8
I'm getting antsy. I don't think we're going to get that ideal capitulation bottom. It's going to be sneaker this time. I'm getting the feeling you are correct. Even the best technicians are feeling it is a bit murky...not crystal clear.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 9:49:52 GMT -8
Wow our 10 day avg volume is now 27 mil. Anyone know the yearly or longer term average? I believe it's around 13 or 15 mil. The 10 day avg is virtually a capitulation indicator itself. Average daily trading volume for the past 12 quarters has been 18,800,00. During that period, by my metrics, Apple missed its numbers 7 of 12 quarters. In the 7 quarters Apple missed earnings average daily volume was 16,500,000. In the other 5 quarters (made numbers) average daily volume was 21,200,000 shares.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 17, 2012 9:55:41 GMT -8
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Post by kloot on Dec 17, 2012 10:04:34 GMT -8
power lunch has the citi guy on right now. i feel like they are kind of mocking him as to how its possible to change your outlook on the stock in 20 days. "Ahem (clears throat) ... well Scott, it's a little of both." He has no clue and is all over the place - it could be up - it could be down. All these guys should walk off their own (fiscal) cliff. WTF is the accountability on your calls? ?? phoebes, you are hilarious. love when u get riled up...
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jz
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Post by jz on Dec 17, 2012 10:11:54 GMT -8
HD's take on the numbers from China: www.asymco.com/2012/12/17/calibrating-launch-performance-for-the-iphone-in-china/#disqus_threadAn important point has been raised in the comments section of the post. The iPhone 5 was launched in Hong Kong in the first wave in September, so the numbers released at the weekend only relate to the rest of China and Taiwan. From an analyst at Atlantic Equities: "To put the 2m figure in context, IDC estimates that Apple shipped 17.7m units to mainland China in FY12 (and 27.4m into Greater China), meaning launch weekend shipments were over 10% of last year's total volumes." Another consideration: What is the PEAK buying timeframe for Chinese gift-giving?
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Post by charles on Dec 17, 2012 10:16:45 GMT -8
I bet the giving of the gifts is around Feb 10, 2013. Hmmm. :-)
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Post by Big Al on Dec 17, 2012 11:03:17 GMT -8
Wow our 10 day avg volume is now 27 mil. Anyone know the yearly or longer term average? I believe it's around 13 or 15 mil. The 10 day avg is virtually a capitulation indicator itself. Average daily trading volume for the past 12 quarters has been 18,800,00. During that period, by my metrics, Apple missed its numbers 7 of 12 quarters. In the 7 quarters Apple missed earnings average daily volume was 16,500,000. In the other 5 quarters (made numbers) average daily volume was 21,200,000 shares. Greg, is this the avg. daily volume during the quarter after or before they missed/beat their internal numbers?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 11:06:54 GMT -8
iPad's board got a mention? Nice!
AAPL still feels a little "confined" for now. Oh well, at least, uh, 500 is holding? For now? First we need a damn deal, then we need 2012/this tax-selling/NASDAQ reshuffling to be over.
Unless AAPL ignites over 525-530ish or something, there's family, friends, football and the holidays to hopefully keep us all busy and in high spirits.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 11:23:15 GMT -8
Seriously? Is 40M shares what AAPL needs these days for a Day 1 potential reversal?
We may still end up at 30M+ volume anyway.
Another day of just watching the ticker...
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Post by lance on Dec 17, 2012 11:28:27 GMT -8
AAPL will be close to, if not the worst performing stock on S&P 500 out of all 500 companies by the end of this quarter (QTD) when it is Apple's best selling highest renvenue/highest profit quarter in history.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 11:36:39 GMT -8
Seriously? Is 40M shares what AAPL needs these days for a Day 1 potential reversal? We may still end up at 30M+ volume anyway. Another day of just watching the ticker... Mav I am coming to the conclusion we are not going to have a blow out day then reverse. Just a WAG but given our daily AVG is presently so high, given this has been tax selling for the large part not only uncertain fear, I'd be surprised if we had a 40M flush day. Also already a few times we have had what would easily pass as capitulation and guess what; selling continues. I think this is just going to exhaust itself. Not sure what that chart pattern would look like but I would expect to see a steady decline on low volume for a model that ended with a capitulation. Then again I could be completely wrong :-) A few firsts already with this drop.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 11:50:38 GMT -8
Let's see some power here! AAPL does have the gap close to 530 to fill.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 12:20:25 GMT -8
Added cheap disaster insurance bear spreads...this week's monthlies.
Daily looks promising (bullish divergences), but this is lackluster action so far...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 12:24:01 GMT -8
I'm getting antsy. I don't think we're going to get that ideal capitulation bottom. It's going to be sneaker this time. I'm getting the feeling you are correct. Even the best technicians are feeling it is a bit murky...not crystal clear. +1 Feeling the same thing here...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 12:29:54 GMT -8
Added cheap disaster insurance bear spreads...this week's monthlies. Whose side are you on?! No seriously you could've at least put that in the current holdings thread Ahem! Well, quad witching week is gonna be interesting at the very least. But since short-term swing/momo is my preferred style of (short-term) trading, and it's extremely difficult to do anything like that in this environment...I just have to keep waiting...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 12:32:04 GMT -8
If there's one positive longer-term, it's that AAPL is correcting far, far in advance of the markets. As long as the fundamentals remain solid (20% YOY earnings growth this year, say), the worst may be behind us for quite some time, as long as ever-delicate macro cooperates enough.
If AAPL can re-test 517 before end of day, I might nibble a small trade. We'll see. Real tough with IV as high as it is.
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Post by sponge on Dec 17, 2012 12:35:16 GMT -8
If there's one positive longer-term, it's that AAPL is correcting far, far in advance of the markets. As long as the fundamentals remain solid (20% YOY earnings growth this year, say), the worst may be behind us for quite some time, as long as ever-delicate macro cooperates enough. I agree. I think we will have the sling shot affect come Jan/Feb time frame. What is concerning is that we are so low that it may take a while to see new ATH. At this point I just want to see at least 570 by earnings and then a nice pop over $600 post earnings and then when the fiscal cliff get resolved we make our way to $700 by March.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 17, 2012 12:37:48 GMT -8
A solid rejection of $500, up $5 on the day and several bullish news stories breaking out? I will take it. It sure beats 90% of the days since September.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 12:40:46 GMT -8
If there's one positive longer-term, it's that AAPL is correcting far, far in advance of the markets. As long as the fundamentals remain solid (20% YOY earnings growth this year, say), the worst may be behind us for quite some time, as long as ever-delicate macro cooperates enough. I agree. I think we will have the sling shot affect come Jan/Feb time frame. What is concerning is that we are so low that it may take a while to see new ATH. At this point I just want to see at least 570 by earnings and then a nice pop over $600 post earnings and then when the fiscal cliff get resolved we make our way to $700 by March. +1 on the stretch to a new ATH. We will have a bunch of profit takers before or at that time IMO.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 12:44:14 GMT -8
Option traders help me out here. I have some Jan 2014 calls 800s. The OI has doubled (like 10K to 20K) since 1 Oct with a major jump on 22 and 23 Oct. I do know what OI is but I am a little surprised that during this huge drop the OI has doubled. Any thoughts on that kind of jump? Rollovers?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 17, 2012 12:59:53 GMT -8
I might need a relief wheeeee today. Muted, however, but a wheeeee nonetheless.
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