Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 4, 2018 3:15:57 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Dec 4, 2018 5:56:47 GMT -8
I'm actually getting more tired of stories like this: Apple downgraded by HSBC, saying the iPhone maker is 'facing the reality of market saturation'I don't necessarily have a problem with them for downgrading AAPL (I mean I still think they are wrong), but IMO, HSBC loses credibility when they reference Apple's "key suppliers" in their note. Of the half dozen or so suppliers that reported weak numbers/guidance out of 200, I would hardly consider them "key" or significant (please refer back to DED's article over at Appleinsider which debunks the myth that the weakness from these suppliers means bad news for Apple). I mean how many times can essentially the same story knock down AAPL?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 4, 2018 6:31:15 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 4, 2018 6:33:37 GMT -8
I mean how many times can essentially the same story knock down AAPL? As many times as it is 'convenient' to repeat...
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 4, 2018 7:27:35 GMT -8
The bright side: Cheaper share price = more shares retired by Apple via buybacks. There's always a silver lining.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 4, 2018 9:48:25 GMT -8
www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-buys-tesla-netflix-in-trouble-and-other-outrageous-predictions-from-saxo-bank-2018-12-04Yes I realize the idea is not popular here .... if you think it's not popular here you should see the reactions on the TSLA forums I'm still a believer the two companies putting there strengths together could be unstoppable ... or a huge miserable failure .. no middle ground on this one. If you didn't already think so ... Apple needs another product and so far I'm not seeing anything that innovative coming from Cupertino these days. Oh well ... it least it gives us something to think about other than the miserable market we have endured for the last 6 weeks ....
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 4, 2018 10:32:42 GMT -8
Yes I realize the idea is not popular here .... if you think it's not popular here you should see the reactions on the TSLA forums I'm still a believer the two companies putting there strengths together could be unstoppable ... or a huge miserable failure .. no middle ground on this one. If you didn't already think so ... Apple needs another product and so far I'm not seeing anything that innovative coming from Cupertino these days. In reading one of the recent articles about how manufacturing wouldn't come back to the US, it claimed that for tooling experts, all found in the US might only fill up one meeting room, vs in China it could fill multiple football fields. While I don't know how true that is, especially since there are a lot of related but different fields in the US (for instance, my wife helped set up a packaging line for Alza, basically setting up a line to blister pack thousands of pharmaceuticals per minute (?)) Either way, two huge things that buying Tesla could give Apple would be tooling experts, and a big area for production lines. While still vastly different, they would be somewhat related. It's probably not the best choice IMO. But if it were to happen, that would be some of the reasoning.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 4, 2018 10:50:32 GMT -8
Nice piece from DED which helps debunk the current supplier FUD distortion field we're experiencing... appleinsider.com/articles/18/12/04/apples-largest-supplier-reported-24-percent-surge-in-revenues-from-oled-display-components-sales"Apple's largest supplier—and the primary source of the flexible OLED panels used in iPhone X and the new iPhone XS lineup—reported 24 percent year-over-year growth in its Q3 revenues from its semiconductors, memory, and display panel unit, an increase it attributed to "increasing demand for flexible [OLED] panels." That supplier was Samsung, and the "major customers" it credited clearly included the world's largest seller of high-end OLED phones. Why aren't Samsung's results attributed to being an "iPhone supplier"?"
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 4, 2018 11:06:44 GMT -8
If Apple thought getting rid of unit sales reporting would cut down on supply chain rumor FUD, boy were they wrong.
That's all I got, now I have to go to the doctor to get my whiplash checked.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 4, 2018 12:22:31 GMT -8
I was quite surprised to see someone on CNBC speak positively about Apple. Larry Haverty, managing director at LHJ Investment Advisors, said some good things about Apple but I'd disagree with what he said regarding the App Store. He believes that the cost to maintain the App Store is "virtually nil" but I've read that there's a considerable amount of effort to "police" the App Store and test apps as they're submitted, not only for function but for viruses and other potential problems. That's also the reason I happen to think the Supreme Court case is bunk. I like to be confident that any apps I download from the App Store will play nice with my Apple electronics. Apple's biggest threat comes from App Store Supreme Court case
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 4, 2018 19:25:28 GMT -8
Sometimes it's good to just take your mind off of the market for a bit, and enjoy a good laugh. I was trying to go through a couple of my old bookmarks, that could very well date back 20 years. With classics like Dilbert and Foxtrot (all 3 kids happen to be grabbing those books off our shelf), there's also Get Fuzzy, SNL's "Don't Buy Stuff", and Joy of Tech. Ah, Joy of Tech. You are a funny one, all while continuing to make fun of Bezos and Zuckerberg, with Apple (iOS text select) mixed in there. Hopefully you get some good digs at Musk too (ah, there's one at 2552). www.joyoftech.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/2566.html
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Post by tuffett on Dec 4, 2018 21:22:58 GMT -8
www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-buys-tesla-netflix-in-trouble-and-other-outrageous-predictions-from-saxo-bank-2018-12-04Yes I realize the idea is not popular here .... if you think it's not popular here you should see the reactions on the TSLA forums I'm still a believer the two companies putting there strengths together could be unstoppable ... or a huge miserable failure .. no middle ground on this one. If you didn't already think so ... Apple needs another product and so far I'm not seeing anything that innovative coming from Cupertino these days. Oh well ... it least it gives us something to think about other than the miserable market we have endured for the last 6 weeks .... I agree. I’m seeing massive R&D spends for products that don’t really excite people anymore. The new iPhone form factor is impressive but it didn’t move the sales needle. ASPs helped for a year but now margins don’t move as prices tick higher. Now may be the time to pull the pricing lever to capture market share and send Services revenue rocketing. An exciting acquisition wouldn’t hurt either.
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on Dec 5, 2018 7:51:37 GMT -8
TSLA would not be a good fit for Apple to acquire for innumerable reasons. It's ridiculously overpriced, comes with the useless baggage of musk and all that entails, and ultimately, they (TSLA) have no moat.
Apple, should it choose to do so, could easily eclipse Tesla's tech, and do a better job of it. There's nothing tesla has that Apple needs, and what they do have that is worthwhile is either open source (Patents) or irrelavant (battery tech - Apple's is already better, as of a few years ago at least).
Tesla is all over except for the crying from bagholders, it's playing "greater-fool-theory" games on the stock price, and once the serious players come online in full force (German and Japanese carmakers), their lunch will be completely eaten.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 5, 2018 8:15:44 GMT -8
TSLA would not be a good fit for Apple to acquire for innumerable reasons. It's ridiculously overpriced, comes with the useless baggage of musk and all that entails, and ultimately, they (TSLA) have no moat. Apple, should it choose to do so, could easily eclipse Tesla's tech, and do a better job of it. There's nothing tesla has that Apple needs, and what they do have that is worthwhile is either open source (Patents) or irrelavant (battery tech - Apple's is already better, as of a few years ago at least). Tesla is all over except for the crying from bagholders, it's playing "greater-fool-theory" games on the stock price, and once the serious players come online in full force (German and Japanese carmakers), their lunch will be completely eaten. You got to be kidding me ... no moat? 1) Tesla has the world's largest battery factory .... that in itself is a HUGE moat when you are trying to produce EVs in mass quantities. 2) Tesla has the supercharger network which is also a big deal when driving an EV ... I have a Chevy Volt and there is no good charging options other than my home .... building a good charging network takes a lot of money and time and Tesla is well ahead. 3) Tesla has never spent a dime on advertising ... the fact that the brand name sells itself is a big competitive advantage. If you look at the ad budget for any major auto company now it's huge. New startups will have to deal with trying to make a name in a field that is already dominated by Tesla. (Just look at the recent sales .... they destroy all the competition from other EV makers) 4)Tesla has NO dealers to take a cut 5) Tesla has no Union to deal with Apple would at best be 3-4 years from developing any kind of production car and that's optimistic .... if Apple really wants to get in the game they need to do it with acquisitions ... yes maybe not Tesla but I've heard VW floated as well ... personally I think Tesla is the way to go. As far as the Germans or Japanese "competition" ... just point me to a car that's AVAILABLE .... you can't. Audi just announced e-tron with great specs but it won't be out till 2021 .... there is NO tesla killer. GM just killed off the Volt because it can't compete on price .... WHEN the ICE makers decide to get in the game they will have to promote EV as the future and will be killing off the part of their business that makes any profits at all ... with such large expenses (factories, employees, unions, dealers ) many won't be able to take the hit and survive to come back to EV's. Finally .... the market is going to grow by leaps and bounds .... it's not a zero sum game as there can and will be plenty of winners .....Tesla will be one of them.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Dec 5, 2018 12:51:28 GMT -8
just to continue the discussion:
No moat, correct. Their battery factory is not the worlds largest (at least not for long, if it ever was) and those are not the best type of batteries to begin with - the fill factor alone is terrible. EVs of the future will not use networked 18650s or similar, but more form-fitted batteries like what Apple uses in Macbooks.
superchargers: useful, granted, but not a showstopper for a competitor.
advertising? a bit of a non-sequitur... telsa's competition isn't going to only be from startups, the real killers will be the established players that actually know how to make cars (not in a tent)... Audi, BMW, Honda, etc.
The dealer network would be an advantage, not a disadvantage. Tesla couldnt' support a dealer network even if they wanted to, there's not enough margin since they have almost continuously lost money... then there's the bonds coming due... good luck with that...
union: not yet, maybe. Generally that hasn't been a problem for foreign companies building plants here (Honda, BMW, etc.) so shoudn't really be an issue either way for a competitor.
Apple: did they give you a real hint on their plans? No? then 3-4 years is just speculation of course. Tesla would be an even worse choice for them to acquire than the already useless and overpriced Beats acquisition. There's no value there, and most of what tesla offers, Apple could easily do better themselves, and more efficiently. If Apple had to acquire anyone worth having in the auto space (not likely nor needed), it would need to be a real player, not a wannabe. And high-end also, so something like McClaren, Pagani, etc.
Available EVs? There's plenty - you can do the research on that I am sure. E-tron was actually announced a few years ago.
I think you are too pessimistic re: the established players. They actually know how to manufacture at scale, and once they decide to pivot to EVs, wanna-be players like TSLA will rapidly evaporate, esp. when you factor in the uncertainty and illogic of musk at the helm, the non-existent profits, sketchy financing situation (bonds), stock price manipulation, etc. Tesla has been teetering on the edge of failure for a while, even musk admitted that.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 5, 2018 19:24:19 GMT -8
Ok electrek.co/2018/08/21/tesla-gigafactory-1-3000-workers/Check your facts ... Giga factory was definitely the worlds biggest ... if it's not now please let me know which one is. Underestimating the power of the supercharger network is a big mistake ... it does make a difference ... I drive a EV and know how hard it is to charge in the wild ... do you happen to own a EV? Dealer network is NOT a positive ... ask most how much they love going to the dealer to either buy a car or service it ? I can't stand it .... dealers suck and the whole process of "negotiating" a car price is akin to having a root canal. Sorry .... there is no way you will convince me dealers are a good thing. Do a google search and you will find tons of articles like this: www.dmv.org/how-to-guides/showroom-anxiety.phpYou never answered the advertising thing ... just blew it off as if it's nothing when in reality a huge chunk of vehicle costs are tied up in advertising ... unlike Tesla who have spent NOTHING and scroll down to see how their EV sales are compared to the others .... Spoiler alert: They are kicking everyone's ass. Unions ... just ask traditional car makers how problematic they are to deal with .... regardless Tesla is free to use as much automation as they want ... granted it made for a rough start with Model3 but I'm pretty sure over time they will work those issues out and labor costs will be slashed. Good luck incorporating those changes with a union involved. I looked for available EV's ... yes there are plenty ... very few of them sell in any kind of decent numbers while Tesla is selling all they can make .... go ahead name me a competitor for the Model3 ... just saying they are out there is not enough. Month of Nov Tesla sold 18,650 Model 3s ... next highest sales from a non Tesla car is Toyota Prius Prime at 2312 .... Tesla sold over 5X the "established players" .... BTW, the idea you bring up about making cars in a "tent" is nonsense .... that is a real building and well suited given Northern CA's weather to build cars in ... good enough to do this electrek.co/2017/12/21/tesla-tsla-tops-customer-satisfaction-survey-auto-industry/Since this is an AAPL forum I think I'd better stop now .... since the market is closed and this is an old thread I guess it's fine but ultimately I don't want to start preaching about TSLA on this forum ... I do that on the TSLA forum ! With regards to Apple trying to purchase them or partner with them I don't really see it happening ..... Ok ... I'm done. All the best .... and Cheers to the AAPL and TSLA longs!
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