Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 6, 2018 3:44:23 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Dec 6, 2018 3:57:47 GMT -8
Woof. Fell short of my 190 target. Now looking like one final flush down before a more meaningful retrace of the move from the ATH.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 6, 2018 6:30:36 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2018 7:27:50 GMT -8
In a way, today's fall is good timing for us. The crumble is happening across broader markets mainly because of new fears of US-China relations after the Huawei exec arrest. But what's good is this fall is also including in one shot the three new downgrades of Apple from UBS, HSBC and Rosenblatt.
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Post by sponge on Dec 6, 2018 8:22:54 GMT -8
It is still early but 170 seems to be the line in the sand for the bulls.
We should fill the gap from 176 now and it seems to want to head towards 180 by OE.
If that holds then a revisit of the 200MA is in order.
I can see one more flush to 175 by middle of Jan.
If guidance is soft then we could see 160 to 150 by March.
If guidance is decent then 205 is my target.
Apple is displaying the same action as 2012. The iPad mini decreased margins just as the XR will drop ASP.
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Post by rickag on Dec 6, 2018 9:46:56 GMT -8
Not AAPL related but this is fascinating. tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corporate-profitsIf you go to forecasting the following quote is interesting. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI in the US jumped to 59.3 in November of 2018 from 57.7 in October, beating market expectations of 57.6. New orders, production and employment rose faster and comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength. Faster increases were seen for new orders (62.1 from 57.4), production (60.6 from 59.9); employment (58.4 from 56.8), inventories (52.9 from 50.7) and backlogs of orders (56.4 from 55.8). Also, price pressures eased (60.7 from 71.6) while supplier deliveries slowed (62.5 from 63.8). I will never understand the stock market. ☹️
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 6, 2018 12:23:02 GMT -8
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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 6, 2018 12:55:55 GMT -8
Pigs could also fly tomorrow, but you don't see articles on CNBC about that... (smh)
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Dec 6, 2018 15:37:47 GMT -8
It is still early but 170 seems to be the line in the sand for the bulls. We should fill the gap from 176 now and it seems to want to head towards 180 by OE. If that holds then a revisit of the 200MA is in order. I can see one more flush to 175 by middle of Jan. If guidance is soft then we could see 160 to 150 by March. If guidance is decent then 205 is my target. Apple is displaying the same action as 2012. The iPad mini decreased margins just as the XR will drop ASP. Sponge, what do mean by "OE"?
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 6, 2018 15:38:47 GMT -8
OK - I'm willing to go out on a proverbial limb and say this is pretty much a retest of the bottom for this selloff. I think the level of pessimism is so crazy extreme - We are in a narrative shift with valuation of the company. I don't think the street is fully digesting or appreciating (even if growth is a tepid as some analysts fear) that the growth of services, and buybacks towards cash natural are going to add to the bottom line of EPS - which in the end of the day is the most critical metric.
We're talking about a company that reported record revenue and EPS just a few weeks ago. The wild card is Trump and tariffs - which could blow all of this out of the water, but my sense all of the posturing aside, a "deal" will get done on trade and tariffs, etc. Assuming Trump is in office and runs again - he's going to want "wins" and a good economy in his column.
Also - this cash neutral thing is not simply "done" when achieved in a year or two of buybacks - I expect AAPL to always throw off more cash than it takes to run the business, so yes dividends will grow somewhat, but Tim and Luccca have clearly shown their preference for buybacks as a way of returning cash and adding value. It's not as sexy as a "trees growing to the sky" of ever larger and larger iPhone numbers, but we all knew "peak" iPhone was coming.
The thing is - I don't see iPhone simply fading away as the iPod did - in fact you could say AAPL themselves disrupted their own biggest hit product wise with the iPhone making iPod obsolete, so I have faith whatever is "next" AAPL will be ready with to release when there seems to be a more compelling product than iPhone.
For the short term, we can take solace that they are buying back like crazy I'll bet at these depressed prices which will further reduce share count and BOOST EPS!
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Dec 6, 2018 15:55:10 GMT -8
...I don't think the street is fully digesting or appreciating (even if growth is a tepid as some analysts fear) that the growth of services, and buybacks towards cash natural are going to add to the bottom line of EPS - which in the end of the day is the most critical metric. +1. Right on. Doesn't it seem brutally obvious that this Trade War thing and any other exaggerated "crisis" is deliberately there to maximize the buy back bang for the buck? Apple isn't the only company doing buy backs.
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Post by sponge on Dec 6, 2018 16:30:53 GMT -8
It is still early but 170 seems to be the line in the sand for the bulls. We should fill the gap from 176 now and it seems to want to head towards 180 by OE. If that holds then a revisit of the 200MA is in order. I can see one more flush to 175 by middle of Jan. If guidance is soft then we could see 160 to 150 by March. If guidance is decent then 205 is my target. Apple is displaying the same action as 2012. The iPad mini decreased margins just as the XR will drop ASP. Sponge, what do mean by "OE"? Options Expirations Usually the third Friday of every month. This Dec will also be triple witching which means more volitlity
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