Since84
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Post by Since84 on Dec 11, 2018 3:25:57 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Dec 11, 2018 6:39:16 GMT -8
Well this is better. Straight back up into the $220's before the end of the year.
Or, not. :-)
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Post by hledgard on Dec 11, 2018 6:42:13 GMT -8
The article We’re No Longer in the Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline is quite telling. I don't see how Apple can avoid the decline suggested by the thoughtful analysis in the article.
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Post by dmiller on Dec 11, 2018 6:52:13 GMT -8
"As the market reaches maturity, smartphones are verging on becoming a commodity — a fate the major smartphone manufacturers like Samsung and Apple desperately want to avoid."
The "becoming a commodity" thing has been said pretty much every year for many, many years now.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 11, 2018 7:37:52 GMT -8
Cars are also a "commodity". One can still make money selling them.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Dec 11, 2018 7:50:47 GMT -8
and there are many high end cars sold...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 7:51:05 GMT -8
The "becoming a commodity" thing has been said pretty much every year for many, many years now. Indeed. Moreover, I think it's a mistake to lump Apple in with other smartphones. They're the only one that makes anything else of significance. Apple is a much better brand and only those with an aversion to what Apple stands for, or that a smartphone is a full-blown computer–can't acknowledge it. In other words, I think some smartphones are commodities and some aren't. Some are struggling to avoid it but probably won't be able to in the end because of a lack of differentiation. Apple has by far the better chance of avoiding this fate of all. Edit: I should have read the Intelligencer piece before commenting. It hits many of the same points and discusses challenges for Apple. Not a bad piece.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Dec 11, 2018 10:08:50 GMT -8
Please welcome new member “laf”. Hoping to see a first posting soon.
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Post by laf on Dec 11, 2018 10:25:55 GMT -8
Thanks for the welcome. Long, long time reader and thought it was time to try to contribute some of my perspective and join in the fun of the discussion. My approach is primarily buy and hold with confidence in apple for the long run, but no clue what is happening with APPL in any given near term.
I worked at apple from 1987 to 1993....just after Jobs left and just before he returned. Always regretted never having the chance to meet him, but my friends who were still there after i left thought of him as a tough SOB and that was absolutely what was needed. A lot of my confidence in Apple comes from knowing that apple always attracted great people to work there and has such an incredibly strong set of leaders (especially compared to when i work there).
but for some content in my first post....
i thought the NYMAG article was really good, but left off what i consider to be the key to APPL and apple future success....an ecosystem of expanding functions, not just of more people. If Apple's future is just a huge number of people who buy iphones and use services (like storage, music, video, messaging), then eventually that does get commoditized (but not for a number of years). But if the future is an expanding set of devices and functions such as fitness aids, health aids, entertainment aids, etc.....with some apple device as a hub then I think we really extend apple's dominance out for a long time.
Also, I don't know how the prognosticators overlook going to 5G as a impetus for turning over a huge number of phones over the next 2-3 years....along with huge profit for apple.
Thanks for everyone who has been participating on this site for so many years and to the folks who keep this going. I don't expect to post a lot but hopefully contribute to the conversation and understanding.
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ems
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Post by ems on Dec 11, 2018 10:34:46 GMT -8
I think 5G is more of an issue of carrier rollout than phone rollout/turnover, really. If/when your carrier supports 5G in a lot of places, then it makes sense to think about hardware (phone) that does so also.
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Post by macster on Dec 11, 2018 10:57:21 GMT -8
I think 5G is more of an issue of carrier rollout than phone rollout/turnover, really. If/when your carrier supports 5G in a lot of places, then it makes sense to think about hardware (phone) that does so also. What we are hearing is aapl will not go to 5G in 2019 phones. Is it because the tech and supplies are not fully up to speed? If not I think this is a mistake as the door for upgraders to iPhones is closed for another year and the option for the cool factor, even if not fully carrier implemented, is on the rumored Android sets coming in 2019.
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Post by dmiller on Dec 11, 2018 11:02:09 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 11, 2018 13:51:38 GMT -8
"Remember that a killer app is an application so valuable to users that it justifies by itself buying the hardware upon which it runs. The original personal computer killer app was VisiCalc — the first spreadsheet. What, then, does 5G enable mobile phone users to do that they can’t do today? I can’t think of anything. Sure, 5G will have us sharing 20 gigabits of bandwidth where LTE allows us to share just one gigabit, but what do we do that actually requires that kind of speed? Nothing." I've been wondering about this. Already, I have very few times that I'd like a newer iPhone than my old 5S, especially since I've now put in a new battery. There are a few apps that are slower to come up, I'm sure I'd like a little bit bigger screen without getting a bigger overall form factor, and I'd be happy to have a better camera with me all the time. But by and large, it fits my needs. Likewise, 4G does pretty well for the phone, but I can completely see using 5G to replace your home internet. The 'why' just turns into pricing and uptime, if speeds are roughly equivalent. Apple in the past has been slower to upgrade to the latest top wireless speeds due to carrier rollout, but also chip cost and power usage. If the rollout isn't there, why pay more for the chips (passed on to end users) and have lower battery life? That all makes sense to me. The problem at this point is more of a marketing thing. If Apple has some of the the most expensive phones out there, people buying them expect it to also have some of the best hardware, even if their carrier or location doesn't yet support it. If I'm buying a Ferrari, I expect it to be fast, even if it's likely I'd ever take it to a place that I could legally go faster than 80 mph. So what's Apple to do? Do they shape the question, or focus the attention on areas where they do have an advantage. For all of the focus on limiting their product line, it does give the advantage to the competition. Let's say 5G didn't roll out to 95% of the users, cost an extra $100, and reduced battery life by 20%. A competitor could just make a product that used it, in addition to ones that don't. Heck, make it the Samsung 5G, to compete with the 17 other models they sell. They can take the spotlight when Verizon wants to coadvertise their new 5G locations, and win honors in certain tests, while also keeping around other ones for "overall usability" type tests. There are times where I wish Apple would broaden their product line a little bit, sometimes to have a lower offering, but often also to grab some of the available froth. If some prince wants to buy a bunch of $10k Apple Watches for his dog, capture that froth. Likewise, if there will be a push for 5G which will make you look bad for not having it, even if for most users it won't be ready yet or won't matter even if it does, is it really right to not have a product to sell them? Even a limited edition one? How many would you have to sell, and at what additional price, to justify adding a special edition model, or a built to order model? At some point it makes sense (assuming you're ok going with the Qualcomm chip now, if the Intel chip isn't out for another year), just as it made sense for us to add features to Mac OS Server if a big place like University of Michigan with 40k macs requested something. The question is if you are logically open to the possibility that it might make sense to do a lower production model, or if you just outright say no. While it might not be ready for everyone, if it would benefit 1% of the users, and another 5-10% of the users want to buy it even if it doesn't benefit them, sometimes you have to just build it. "The customer is always right", even if they aren't.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 11, 2018 18:34:09 GMT -8
The article We’re No Longer in the Smartphone Plateau. We’re in the Smartphone Decline is quite telling. I don't see how Apple can avoid the decline suggested by the thoughtful analysis in the article. There was a time when some spoke of PEAK OIL! Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. That presumed we have already found all of the oil that could be found. Then horizontal drilling and fracking was perfected. The world has lots of oil. Perhaps it is similar to peak iPhone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 20:13:48 GMT -8
I worked at apple from 1987 to 1993....
If Apple's future is just a huge number of people who buy iphones and use services (like storage, music, video, messaging), then eventually that does get commoditized (but not for a number of years). But if the future is an expanding set of devices and functions such as fitness aids, health aids, entertainment aids, etc.....with some apple device as a hub then I think we really extend apple's dominance out for a long time.
Amazing you worked there. I think commoditization is a rolling phenomenon. There's a turnover of parts. It seems to me it comes down to whether or not a company can differentiate it's products from its peers, not individual components. So really every computerized product has many parts that are commodities. A not-invented-here syndrome isn't a good thing. But at the other extreme is the M Dell approach where engineering is spurned entirely for commodity part assembly. The upshot is no differentiation. I think non-creators or non-designers tend to think there's nothing left to create when existing stuff gets really good. But I think–and hope–that Apple actually thinks even in the general purpose computer category there will be future differentiators not yet thought of. The sum is more than the parts. Future things that will delight us. So I think your assumption that commoditization is inevitable in the long run except for entirely new future products isn't quite correct. It's a tall order, and we can't be certain Apple can pull it off. But I do believe that's their aim and I think they believe they can. That's why the extreme vertical integration: to make space for that to happen. My money is on them because they're the ones who actually think they can and are trying. They aren't guaranteed to make it of course, but those that don't and aren't have no chance.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 21:24:26 GMT -8
There was a time when some spoke of PEAK OIL! ... Perhaps it is similar to peak iPhone. I think it's even much more unrealistic to speak of "saturation" for the most amazing machines mankind has produced, and most certainly for a company that has a fraction of the marketshare for them. I think the idea of "peak oil" rested on some assumptions about how oil was produced in the earth that are since open to doubt, but at least it was theoretically possible. But desire for more energy is virtually unlimited–since human desire is unlimited–and I suspect desire for better products that do more is limited only by the creativity of designers. I don't know about the rest of you, but the non-X button phones look so dated now that the X models are out. Screen size is awesome and the face-id so fast and smooth. These days using maps in a car and such it matters. Can't imagine a fingerprint sensor on the back like some Android models. Anyway, I didn't think we'd do it but when Apple upped the trade-in value to 300 I upgraded my wife's 7 plus to a max. It's awesome.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Dec 12, 2018 3:00:56 GMT -8
Non-creators or non-designers tend to think there's nothing left to create when existing stuff gets really good. Remember they wanted to close the patent office in the 1899 "because there was nothing left to invent".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 15:20:55 GMT -8
Remember they wanted to close the patent office in the 1899 "because there was nothing left to invent". I always think of that old musical "Oklahoma!", which goes to show you nothing ever changes since they were making fun of this attitude then. Everything's up to date in Kansas City They gone about as fer as they can go They went an' built a skyscraper seven stories high About as high as a buildin' orta grow. Everything's like a dream in Kansas City It's better than a magic lantern show. You can turn the radiator on whenever you want some heat With every kind of comfort every house is all complete. You could walk the privees in the rain and never wet your feet! They've gone about as fer as they can go. They've gone about as fer as they can go!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Dec 12, 2018 16:26:31 GMT -8
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