Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 13, 2018 3:38:20 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Europe is RED while the US and Asia are GREEN. AAPL is GREEN as well, trading at $170.20 +1.10 (0.65%). Quiet morning in the news: CNBC and others have Apple to invest $1 billion in new Texas campus. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Post by redinaustin on Dec 13, 2018 4:04:21 GMT -8
I think that $1B investment in Texas is bogus and based on a years’ old tweet based on news then. That facility in Austin is mostly built, occupied and humming along,
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Post by redinaustin on Dec 13, 2018 5:24:39 GMT -8
I think th at $1B investment in Texas is bogus and based on a years’ old tweet based on news then. That facility in Austin is mostly built, occupied and humming along, OK - it looks like a major expansion of the one that opened a few years ago. I believe it has been planned from the time that was built and that the land was acquired at that time.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 13, 2018 6:03:33 GMT -8
I think th at $1B investment in Texas is bogus and based on a years’ old tweet based on news then. That facility in Austin is mostly built, occupied and humming along, OK - it looks like a major expansion of the one that opened a few years ago. I believe it has been planned from the time that was built and that the land was acquired at that time. Right from the source. Thx red
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 13, 2018 7:25:39 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 13, 2018 7:41:55 GMT -8
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Post by carbonate24 on Dec 13, 2018 7:45:07 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 13, 2018 8:33:04 GMT -8
The article basically said they expect and see current US sales to be very similar to last year. Personally, I don't have a problem with places downgrading their stock price expectations. Have your 12 month stock price expectations changed since AAPL was in the $225+ range? Mine have! Gaining 10-15% off of a high in 12 months ($267) is easier than gaining 50-55% (same level) from current levels. And so if trying to forecast where the stock has an 80% chance of being (at or higher) in 12 months, a 30% gain from $170 puts that at $220. 30% in 12 months wouldn't be too shabby, even if it wouldn't bring AAPL back to ATH levels. That would take around 40% While disappointing to those feeling that paid people making estimates should have lowered them before or during the stock fall, I really can't fault them for lowering their 12 month stock price target. And doing it now, there's almost no downside to the stock, whereas hitting the estimates or raising estimates in the future does often have a positive benefit to the stock price. Anyway, here is a bit more from the article: “While we are not seeing evidence of iPhone unit weakness in our domestic iPhone user survey, reduced expectations from multiple component suppliers are likely a sign that global unit uptake has not met expectations,” analyst Michael Olson said in a note to clients Thursday. “Based on this, and despite what appears to be a solid domestic uptake of iPhone XR, XS and XS Max, we are slightly lowering our iPhone estimates in fiscal 2019 and 2020.”
Olson maintained his overweight rating on Apple stock, but trimmed his 12-month price target to $222 from $250. The 11 percent reduction to his price target implies 31 percent upside over the next year. The analyst sees much of the decline in international sales already priced into shares and believes Apple’s fiscal 2019 earnings will reach $13.45 per share.
“Data points from various component suppliers suggest iPhone units are tracking below plan, but our domestic survey of over 550 iPhone owners shows similar upgrade rates versus our 2017 survey,” Olson said. “Specifically, 49 percent of iPhone owners said they will (or already have) or may upgrade to one of the new iPhone models this year, which was up slightly from 48 percent last year.”
Piper Jaffary believes that 39 percent of iPhones sold this year will be iPhone XS and XS Max, while 30 percent will be the iPhone XR.(BTW, while Apple has said the XR is selling the best, it could be that combined units and the extra few weeks of XS sales bring Piper to this conclusion)
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Post by carbonate24 on Dec 13, 2018 10:33:25 GMT -8
The article basically said they expect and see current US sales to be very similar to last year. Personally, I don't have a problem with places downgrading their stock price expectations. Have your 12 month stock price expectations changed since AAPL was in the $225+ range? Mine have! Gaining 10-15% off of a high in 12 months ($267) is easier than gaining 50-55% (same level) from current levels. And so if trying to forecast where the stock has an 80% chance of being (at or higher) in 12 months, a 30% gain from $170 puts that at $220. 30% in 12 months wouldn't be too shabby, even if it wouldn't bring AAPL back to ATH levels. That would take around 40% While disappointing to those feeling that paid people making estimates should have lowered them before or during the stock fall, I really can't fault them for lowering their 12 month stock price target. And doing it now, there's almost no downside to the stock, whereas hitting the estimates or raising estimates in the future does often have a positive benefit to the stock price. Anyway, here is a bit more from the article: “While we are not seeing evidence of iPhone unit weakness in our domestic iPhone user survey, reduced expectations from multiple component suppliers are likely a sign that global unit uptake has not met expectations,” analyst Michael Olson said in a note to clients Thursday. “Based on this, and despite what appears to be a solid domestic uptake of iPhone XR, XS and XS Max, we are slightly lowering our iPhone estimates in fiscal 2019 and 2020.”
Olson maintained his overweight rating on Apple stock, but trimmed his 12-month price target to $222 from $250. The 11 percent reduction to his price target implies 31 percent upside over the next year. The analyst sees much of the decline in international sales already priced into shares and believes Apple’s fiscal 2019 earnings will reach $13.45 per share.
“Data points from various component suppliers suggest iPhone units are tracking below plan, but our domestic survey of over 550 iPhone owners shows similar upgrade rates versus our 2017 survey,” Olson said. “Specifically, 49 percent of iPhone owners said they will (or already have) or may upgrade to one of the new iPhone models this year, which was up slightly from 48 percent last year.”
Piper Jaffary believes that 39 percent of iPhones sold this year will be iPhone XS and XS Max, while 30 percent will be the iPhone XR.(BTW, while Apple has said the XR is selling the best, it could be that combined units and the extra few weeks of XS sales bring Piper to this conclusion) 4aapl, I agree with you on your price target thoughts and don't have an issue with him lowering his price. It was the comment in bold above that made me cringe a bit. It felt like the Lumentum story was continuing to carry some weight with analysts.
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