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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2012 16:21:58 GMT -8
Red, did you HAVE to remind me?!?!?!?! Arrrrggggghhhhhh!!!!!!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 16:23:34 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 18, 2012 16:23:40 GMT -8
Yeah, that sounds like a wash sale to me as well, as it doesn't matter if you're changing expiration/strikes, underlying is still the same. Nothing is definitive in this area (because it isn't codified clearly). However, most experts say that if you change expiration date, it cannot be considered a wash sale. Some experts say that if you "substantially" change the strike price it also doesn't count as a wash sale (and I think perhaps 150 change in strike price is "substantial").
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Post by moltenfire on Dec 18, 2012 17:04:24 GMT -8
Yeah, that sounds like a wash sale to me as well, as it doesn't matter if you're changing expiration/strikes, underlying is still the same. Nothing is definitive in this area (because it isn't codified clearly). However, most experts say that if you change expiration date, it cannot be considered a wash sale. Some experts say that if you "substantially" change the strike price it also doesn't count as a wash sale (and I think perhaps 150 change in strike price is "substantial"). It's not clear in Canadian law either, although the CRA does have an interpretation bulletin (NO: IT-387R2) (not definitive law, just the gov's interpretation of it) which states: Although I note that the above quote says nothing about changing strikes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2012 17:11:11 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 17:13:03 GMT -8
Red, did you HAVE to remind me?!?!?!?! Arrrrggggghhhhhh!!!!!! Well, I hate to be the one, but look back int the 475 area. $4 just void.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 17:17:38 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Dec 18, 2012 17:28:13 GMT -8
back to back days of making new highs in the last 5min of trading is sweet sassy molassy. My guess is we will likely gap up again tomorrow, unless macro fiscal cliff issue comes up. I don't want to jinx it, but I'm excited for the possibility of a green day tomorrow, and what would be our first 3 green candles in a row since Sept 19th. Love the metaphor - "3 green candles"
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Post by leonb on Dec 18, 2012 19:02:26 GMT -8
Agree. Amazon's weakness is that it is easy to replicate - you can clone a rival with a huge capital investment, and no patents or talent required, and no deep brand loyalty to contend with. Capital (at this level, with these stakes) is the lowest barrier to entry. As soon as Amazon increases its margins, physical shops, resellers, and massively funded clones will all take back revenue. It's still a great company, just a stupidly priced share. Amazon's massive consumer database wouldn't be easy to replicate -- they know quite a lot about their customers based on what they read, non-book purchases, etc. Amazon's consumer database allows them to pitch selectively, but how much is this really worth in the context of a similarly stocked rival? At the moment, bricks and mortar stores function as showrooms for many Amazon customers, who get to sample the goods and snag the online discount. If Amazon gets greedy with its margins and invites a fund-backed behemoth into its space, it could find itself in the position of the physical stores - its database-derived pitches piquing its customers' interest, only for them to complete their purchases through the cheaper new rival a couple of clicks away (who would in time build its own database). Amazon can only monopolize its space with small margins and large volume. Its sales should continue to grow with the shift to e-commerce, but its profits may never justify its current valuation.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 19:10:40 GMT -8
Amazon's biggest threat is not from competition, it is the tax man. At some point this nonsense has to stop. I do use the Internet to buy things, but I know that the tax free has to stop.
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Post by roni on Dec 18, 2012 19:35:41 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 19:35:42 GMT -8
Agree. Amazon's weakness is that it is easy to replicate - you can clone a rival with a huge capital investment, and no patents or talent required, and no deep brand loyalty to contend with. Capital (at this level, with these stakes) is the lowest barrier to entry. As soon as Amazon increases its margins, physical shops, resellers, and massively funded clones will all take back revenue. It's still a great company, just a stupidly priced share. Amazon's massive consumer database wouldn't be easy to replicate -- they know quite a lot about their customers based on what they read, non-book purchases, etc. I can only think of 2 companies that have several hundred million global customers with 1 click shopping - amazon & apple. However with the pitiful amount of money amazon makes, I don't foresee apple moving to enter the online retailing market (outside of apple products & digital downloads)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 19:55:52 GMT -8
I have posted that there are some really smart guys in Avi's group, two of my favorites (BAMA and TCAT) have really outdone themselves this evening. It is worth doing the trial just to read BAMA's post tonight. I am not even going to get into TCAT's prediction for tomorrow. Lets just say, if he is right we will be happy.
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Post by bribery on Dec 18, 2012 20:00:33 GMT -8
I have posted that there are some really smart guys in Avi's group, two of my favorites (BAMA and TCAT) have really outdone themselves this evening. It is worth doing the trial just to read BAMA's post tonight. I am not even going to get into TCAT's prediction for tomorrow. Lets just say, if he is right we will be happy. C'mon give us a hint! I'd join today for the trial but I have my last final tomorrow and I know it would be a bad idea.
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Post by prazan on Dec 18, 2012 20:02:37 GMT -8
For those of us home gaming Apple's 1Q 2013 results, bear in mind that Oracle reported that the strong dollar this quarter resulted in a 5% hit to total revenue, reducing profit by a penny a share. I haven't enjoyed the time to think through the implications of this, given that a penny a share is only 1.5% of the quarter's .64 EPS.
On Friday before the close I bought July 13 580-600 spreads, up over 20% at the end of today. Of course, the purchase was made from what remained of my decimated options account.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 20:11:18 GMT -8
I have posted that there are some really smart guys in Avi's group, two of my favorites (BAMA and TCAT) have really outdone themselves this evening. It is worth doing the trial just to read BAMA's post tonight. I am not even going to get into TCAT's prediction for tomorrow. Lets just say, if he is right we will be happy. C'mon give us a hint! I'd join today for the trial but I have my last final tomorrow and I know it would be a bad idea. I did give a hint. ;D Do not want to copy BAMA's post out of respect. TCAT is felling frisky.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 18, 2012 20:17:54 GMT -8
Posted about max pain early in week when apple was at 505 range. Max pain at that point was around 575. Maybe it has helped a bit, since when we are up a lot over a period the pain usually pulls us down
Max pain now at 560 so perhaps another push more this week. Last few weeks we have peaked early in week and quickly reversed..
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2012 20:19:29 GMT -8
I have posted that there are some really smart guys in Avi's group, two of my favorites (BAMA and TCAT) have really outdone themselves this evening. It is worth doing the trial just to read BAMA's post tonight. I am not even going to get into TCAT's prediction for tomorrow. Lets just say, if he is right we will be happy. YAY!! I knew you would like those two!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 20:24:11 GMT -8
iPad, if MB won't share , mind sharing why things are suddenly looking interesting in the EW thread? I see a potential 30-point IHS trigger (not EW-related, of course), but I can also see a need for AAPL to rest a bit.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 21:18:23 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 18, 2012 21:20:14 GMT -8
iPad, if MB won't share , mind sharing why things are suddenly looking interesting in the EW thread? I see a potential 30-point IHS trigger (not EW-related, of course), but I can also see a need for AAPL to rest a bit. Rest, from what? Every $5 increment will be a struggle from here to 555, it can rest a little when it has earned a rest. Hell, I need a rest.
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Post by macziggy on Dec 18, 2012 23:36:24 GMT -8
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Post by bribery on Dec 19, 2012 0:00:46 GMT -8
If we break above 555, I'm looking into changing a position. I have 18 Jan '14 $600 calls. I was thinking of selling 12 of these and get 700/750 spreads? Any thoughts? Much appreciated.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2012 0:26:07 GMT -8
Hmm...NASDAQ futures look unusually strong relative to the SPX/Dow futures (which is fine, given the bellwether-ness of tech).
We'll see what happens...
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 19, 2012 9:29:53 GMT -8
Amazon's massive consumer database wouldn't be easy to replicate -- they know quite a lot about their customers based on what they read, non-book purchases, etc. I can only think of 2 companies that have several hundred million global customers with 1 click shopping - amazon & apple. However with the pitiful amount of money amazon makes, I don't foresee apple moving to enter the online retailing market (outside of apple products & digital downloads) And accessories for Apple products ... for those lucky accessory manufacturers that are acceptable to Apple.
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