Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 27, 2018 3:21:26 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Dec 27, 2018 5:22:35 GMT -8
The Bloomberg article on the Qualcomm case is a puff piece heavily slanted in the favor of Qualcomm - wonder how that got written. Makes it sound like Qualcomm is right and the rest of the industry is wrong. Why shouldn't poor Qualcomm be able to profit so massively off of the inventions and patents that Bloomberg seems to be saying that Qualcomm alone created? Those wonderful patents that make iPhones into iPhones, instead of just iPods. Qualcomm did all of that, themselves. Without only Qualcomm, none of this would be possible. ***** Except that in REALITY, we have this thing called FRAND, which the Bloomberg article fails to mention and completely ignores. And the fact that Qualcomm was one of a group of companies responsible for the development of these technologies and patents. And that Qualcomm is required by contract to license their technology on a FRAND basis; and NOT based on a percentage of the entire price of the device. Etc etc and etc. All of those things are reality and they're why Qualcomm should simply lose at trial. But Bloomberg doesn't mention any of that. For a real take on all of this, for anyone who doesn't know or hasn't seen, read through much of the related content at FOSS Patents
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Post by dmiller on Dec 27, 2018 5:36:24 GMT -8
As for the Spence article, the headline tells me all that I likely need to know, so I'll resist click-baiting on it. I'd rather read the Macalope's eventual whimsical deconstruction of it.
But to guess: Apple = disaster. Because "massive discounts".
Which implies... Massive Discounts?
Which could be taken to mean, Apple must be doing BOGO deals, like Samsung and other non-Apple competitors have been doing for years now, with NEW PHONES immediately after release. It MUST be something like that.
Or perhaps, Apple must be offering huge price cuts on all the new iPhones, desperate to move iPhones, any iPhones for the holidays. Nobody really wants iPhones.
Or perhaps, Apple is offering price cuts. Any kind of price cuts.
That's what that headline must mean.
*****
Or, maybe more likely, in REALITY, Apple is doing what it ALWAYS DOES - offers a "discount" when you TRADE AN OLD IPHONE IN FOR A NEW ONE.
Like THEY ALWAYS DO, EVERY YEAR, pretty much FOREVER.
Or, maybe and/or in addition, some carriers are offering promotional deals to try to pick up customers from other carriers. You know, like the carriers have always have done, every year and forever.
But back to Apple and trade-ins.
*****
So Apple must just take those iPhones that were traded in, and throw them away. I guess. Or maybe just grind them all down and recycle them. That would be bad - Apple just giving people the cash back, throwing (our money) away and at the consumer in the process.
*****
Or, maybe more likely, IN REALITY, there are MARKETS for reconditioned iPhones that were traded in, and that Apple can recondition many (most?) of those phones and RESELL them.
That would be good (for Apple; for consumers; and for us)
But the Forbes clown network doesn't want to tell you that.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 27, 2018 6:03:12 GMT -8
dmiller -- had a little coffee this morning? 😁
I did debate three or four times posting the Ewan Spence piece, but decided to in anticipation of Macalope's take down.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 27, 2018 6:28:55 GMT -8
dmiller -- had a little coffee this morning? 😁 I did debate three or four times posting the Ewan Spence piece, but decided to in anticipation of Macalope's take down. I think we all know both you and Spence well enough by now to assume that you were posting to give us all a good laugh, though I am sure the Macalope will add to the hilarity.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 27, 2018 6:58:15 GMT -8
As for the Spence article, the headline tells me all that I likely need to know, so I'll resist click-baiting on it. I'd rather read the Macalope's eventual whimsical deconstruction of it. But to guess: Apple = disaster. Because "massive discounts". Which implies... Massive Discounts? Which could be taken to mean, Apple must be doing BOGO deals, like Samsung and other non-Apple competitors have been doing for years now, with NEW PHONES immediately after release. It MUST be something like that. Or perhaps, Apple must be offering huge price cuts on all the new iPhones, desperate to move iPhones, any iPhones for the holidays. Nobody really wants iPhones. Or perhaps, Apple is offering price cuts. Any kind of price cuts. That's what that headline must mean. ***** Or, maybe more likely, in REALITY, Apple is doing what it ALWAYS DOES - offers a "discount" when you TRADE AN OLD IPHONE IN FOR A NEW ONE. Like THEY ALWAYS DO, EVERY YEAR, pretty much FOREVER. Or, maybe and/or in addition, some carriers are offering promotional deals to try to pick up customers from other carriers. You know, like the carriers have always have done, every year and forever. But back to Apple and trade-ins. ***** So Apple must just take those iPhones that were traded in, and throw them away. I guess. Or maybe just grind them all down and recycle them. That would be bad - Apple just giving people the cash back, throwing (our money) away and at the consumer in the process. ***** Or, maybe more likely, IN REALITY, there are MARKETS for reconditioned iPhones that were traded in, and that Apple can recondition many (most?) of those phones and RESELL them. That would be good (for Apple; for consumers; and for us) But the Forbes clown network doesn't want to tell you that. Beautifully done, dMiller. I enjoyed you analysis. Spot on !
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 27, 2018 7:16:00 GMT -8
Unfortunately, with Apple no longer reporting iPhone numbers the rumor mills will go unchecked, we will see if the market responds to favorable bottom line numbers from Apple.
So far I've yet to see any articles which address Christmas sales and Apple's products as we have had for every Christmas for many years ..... if there is any good news Apple can report in terms of iTunes traffic or activations I sure wish they would.
Hoping that yesterday's bounce was actually meaningful in some way .... let's see if this morning is just everyone taking short term profits.
Cheers to the longs ....
Edit: clear at this point this is much more than profit taking .... who knows how this day will end? I sure hope this is not the new normal for the market as it’s very unhealthy for avg investors to see.
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Post by dmiller on Dec 27, 2018 7:18:16 GMT -8
dmiller -- had a little coffee this morning? 😁 I did debate three or four times posting the Ewan Spence piece, but decided to in anticipation of Macalope's take down. Since84, I’m finding it harder to resist occasionally knocking down some of these straw men early in the morning. :-) Always glad to see them sprinkled into the opening mix of the day. I think I’d had 2 cups at that point.
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Post by dmiller on Dec 27, 2018 7:24:41 GMT -8
dmiller -- had a little coffee this morning? 😁 I did debate three or four times posting the Ewan Spence piece, but decided to in anticipation of Macalope's take down. I think we all know both you and Spence well enough by now to assume that you were posting to give us all a good laugh, though I am sure the Macalope will add to the hilarity. It’s absolutely the right thing to do to post these articles, in all seriousness. This is the (pick a word: hogwash; FUD; tripe?) that the general public reads. We all know better. It doesn’t make it less useful or amusing to read it and get a sense for why “people” in general start asking about “what’s wrong with Apple” because I heard “” “” “”. I get this all the time; people I know as business contacts, family members. I consider it part of my daily and required reading to look through all sorts of articles, the real and the FUD. And it’s fun to point out and knock down the latter. :-)
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 27, 2018 9:44:48 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 27, 2018 11:39:02 GMT -8
This kind of huge up and down market volatility reminds me of trading during the 2008 insanity. Huge swings up and down.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Dec 27, 2018 13:06:03 GMT -8
Nice come back, though it didn't make it to GREEN.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 27, 2018 13:17:25 GMT -8
This kind of huge up and down market volatility reminds me of trading during the 2008 insanity. Huge swings up and down. This kind of huge up and down market volatility reminds me why I don't trade. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 27, 2018 14:29:12 GMT -8
Bingo on the not trading part - the current volatility is very unpredictable and nuts.
The only thing I did today was calculate the value of 5 years worth of AAPL of dividends (at my current share count) and buy them all in bulk (pre-reinvest them) now in my Interactive Brokers margin account - I NEVER use margin for speculation or investing but in this case, it seemed just too good to pass up (and IBs margin rates are super low) - I'll pay it back easily with divis over the next 5 years, and dividend increases will probably average out to cover the margin cost as well - average price for this today was around 151 - I have no idea where we'll be in 12 months, but I'm pretty darned sure these re-investment prices will be looking very nice over 5 years, and my total share count will be more than if I did it the DRIP way (at least I can hope)
Cheers to the LONGS and here's to better days ahead. I think the earnings will be very interesting. Also we are in the last few days for tax loss selling, vs. fund managers window-dressing. Anybody's guess is good enough for what the last few days of 2018 will trade like. I am very curious to see the action in Jan. after tax loss selling isn't in play.
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2018 14:52:23 GMT -8
This kind of huge up and down market volatility reminds me of trading during the 2008 insanity. Huge swings up and down. If I knew how I would be trading volatility on TastyWork’s platform, but alas I haven’t completed the training webinars 😓
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 27, 2018 17:52:41 GMT -8
FROM LUCA in NOVEMBER 2018: As we move ahead into the December quarter, I'd like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Nancy referred to at the beginning of the call. We have the strongest lineup ever as we enter the holiday season and we expect revenue to be between $89 billion and $93 billion, a new all-time record.This range reflects a number of factors to be considered. First, we considered the effect on Q4 and Q1 of the launch timing of our new iPhones this year versus last year. Second, we expect almost $2 billion of foreign exchange headwinds. Third, we have an unprecedented number of products ramping, and while our ramps are going fairly well, we have uncertainty around supply and demand balance. And fourth, we also face some macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly in emerging markets. We expect gross margin to be between 38% and 38.5%. We expect OpEx to be between $8.7 billion and $8.8 billion. We expect OI&E to be about $300 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 16.5% before discrete items. seekingalpha.com/article/4217359-apple-aapl-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
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