Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 3:29:32 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 6:19:59 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2019 7:00:41 GMT -8
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 7:09:50 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by PikesPique on Jan 4, 2019 7:13:03 GMT -8
What he said! "Doomed all the way to the bank." It'll take a while, but I think Apple is in a better position to survive peak smartphone than its competitors.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2019 7:20:18 GMT -8
What he said! "Doomed all the way to the bank." It'll take a while, but I think Apple is in a better position to survive peak smartphone than its competitors. With margins hovering around 37-38% ... other makers can't even begin to dream of such margins. My mantra is still ... Apple will have over $250 billion after reporting at the end of the mont and the current market cap is around $675 billion, they can buy back around 36% of the company at current levels. How this is lost on analysts is beyond me.
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Jan 4, 2019 7:25:05 GMT -8
Up today, big move.
Whooo hooo (faintly)
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 8:04:00 GMT -8
This to me is the biggest issue for Apple. They got into bed with a gov that will steal from them. TC thought that the Chinese growing middle class and their big factories will be enough for Apple. That was a bad gamble. Now they will cheat and steal, and just like Android with out SJ to fight back, TC will try to play nice. His interview yesterday shows he is deathly afraid of the Chinese gov. He has nothing but positive things to say about them. He lied by saying the gov has not targeted Apple. Don’t want to sound too pessimistic but Apple’s business in China is on the way down and if Apple has not started to aggressively move manufacturing out, then the company is in big trouble. A new product and growth in other markets is the only way to offset the drop in sales in China. TC saw the writing on the wall started to educate WS by stopping the disclosing of iPhone numbers. When 65% of your profit comes from one product and 20% of sales are from China, it does not take much of a slide to impact profits quickly. The rise in ASP was starting to offset a flating iPHone curve, but now we must be patient until 2020. Services and wearables will not be enough in the mean time. The drop yesterday points to a low of 117 this year and maybe even lower. We will get a better picture in June. In the mean time we will continue to see big 30 point moves. I will be buying puts shortly.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 8:31:14 GMT -8
Sponge you may be right, AAPL might go lower.
Wall Street tends to over react. The 'bad news' was mostly priced in. Even with Tim's confirmation, first quarter looks to be one of Apple's best. It is possible AAPL is oversold at this point. I think so.
That said, I'm watching to see whether or not this bounce contains a dead cat.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2019 8:49:32 GMT -8
This to me is the biggest issue for Apple. They got into bed with a gov that will steal from them. TC thought that the Chinese growing middle class and their big factories will be enough for Apple. That was a bad gamble. Now they will cheat and steal, and just like Android with out SJ to fight back, TC will try to play nice. His interview yesterday shows he is deathly afraid of the Chinese gov. He has nothing but positive things to say about them. He lied by saying the gov has not targeted Apple. Don’t want to sound too pessimistic but Apple’s business in China is on the way down and if Apple has not started to aggressively move manufacturing out, then the company is in big trouble. A new product and growth in other markets is the only way to offset the drop in sales in China. TC saw the writing on the wall started to educate WS by stopping the disclosing of iPhone numbers. When 65% of your profit comes from one product and 20% of sales are from China, it does not take much of a slide to impact profits quickly. The rise in ASP was starting to offset a flating iPHone curve, but now we must be patient until 2020. Services and wearables will not be enough in the mean time. The drop yesterday points to a low of 117 this year and maybe even lower. We will get a better picture in June. In the mean time we will continue to see big 30 point moves. I will be buying puts shortly. That "gamble" made Apple the largest company in the world and it was paying off nicely until the current administration decided that "trade wars are easy to win." Tim has proven to be very adept at dealing with the Chinese government IMHO. I will say you have been pretty correct in your AAPL SP predictions but I hope you are wrong on this one ... at 117 just imagine how low the market cap and multiple goes for a company that broke records in EVERY other market they are in and grew service revenue substantially. The numbers (share price) defy logic .... as does the market at times. Cheers to the longs.
|
|
|
Post by dmiller on Jan 4, 2019 9:02:14 GMT -8
So what exactly is it thought that China is “stealing”? No details.
Forget about form factor, that ship sailed long ago.
What can’t be stolen (without being easily found out?) Let’s point out the most obvious - things that make the iPhone unique.
- A-series processor and integration of other custom silicon - all the hardware that gives Apple a massive lead over competitors who have no access to any of it. Bundle in unimportant and easy to copy things like, the secure enclave, FaceID and TouchID, the new AI processor in the latest iPhones, etc etc. (oh wait. Those things ARE, CRITICALLY IMPORTANT and worth many many billions and and can’t be copied - at least not without being stolen, and it’s unclear how that could even be possible)
- iOS, the App Store, etc. The only homegrown custom integrated mobile OS that’s available only on one platform and not licensed to anyone else. Also unimportant and easy to copy. (Oh, wait. Those are worth many many billions and also impossible to duplicate without stealing and how exactly would that happen and if it did how would the Chinese get away with it)
How about those things for starters?
And then there’s ecosystem and brand.
Etc.
It’s as easy for someone to write that um maybe the Chinese are just copying Apple; as to paint Apple as the next Nokia or RIM (just because); since it’s easy and lazy for the press to do that without having any idea about what they’re saying.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 9:13:47 GMT -8
You all know I am the biggest bull in Apple. But over the years I have come to respect the market and the signs it gives me.
The 117 target is closer to 120. I use that only based on historical corrections. A p/e of about 9-10 tends to be the low. Apply that to where eps will be in June.
From a fundamental prospective, if China sales were down 20% in Q1 and Q2 tends to be strong for Apple in China, what happens when we drop another 20% YOY. I just dont see iPhone sales picking up in the rest of the world to make up for the drop in China.
The Chinese economy is slowing down fast and that is not reversing anytime soon.
This tells me we have two or three quarters of pain ahead of us. I don’t think Apple will be buying back as many shares as everyone here would like them to.
They see the same things and will be patient in how they buy back. I believe they will have 24 sold months of being able to buy under 200.
Apple is still in great shape and will continue to reward us with great products. I now respect the XS more then ever. When it drops down in price people will buy that iPhone as a great upgrade.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2019 9:35:11 GMT -8
dmiller:
Exactly. Consider the source. A has-been TV talking head economist. Probably doesn't even know which end of a phone to talk into.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 9:47:12 GMT -8
Chinese Intellectual Property theft is a problem that has been discussed for years in a myriad of industries from aircraft to drugs. Indeed I am hard pressed to think of an industry where it has not been raised as an issue.
Despite the gnashing of teeth little has been done.
Of course, it remains to be seen whether the current approach pays off.
Also worth noting that those markets where Apple fares poorly (e.g. India) tend to be those that have non-tariff obstacles to trade.
Though strongly anti-tariff myself, how does one get recalcitrant trading partners to play fair? I would love to see a scenario where tariffs and non tariff barriers to trade are ratched down to nothing over time. Imagine global free trade. That would be an interesting economy.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2019 12:03:45 GMT -8
Its nice to be off the insane lows of yesterday but this feels like a weak bounce that’s being motivated by the broader market.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 12:55:45 GMT -8
The move today had little to do with Apple. It is a dead cat bounce in my view.
I went ahead and bought puts with the funds I have remaining for trading.
I also sold 2000 shares from my parents account.
When the stock goes down 9% on an earnings revision that has not happened in 18 years, that is giving warning bells that there is more pain ahead in the coming months.
I don’t think yesterday’s news is priced into the stock.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2019 13:02:22 GMT -8
Chinese Intellectual Property theft is a problem that has been discussed for years in a myriad of industries from aircraft to drugs. Indeed I am hard pressed to think of an industry where it has not been raised as an issue. Despite the gnashing of teeth little has been done. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the current approach pays off. Also worth noting that those markets where Apple fares poorly (e.g. India) tend to be those that have non-tariff obstacles to trade. Though strongly anti-tariff myself, how does one get recalcitrant trading partners to play fair? I would love to see a scenario where tariffs and non tariff barriers to trade are ratched down to nothing over time. Imagine global free trade. That would be an interesting economy. I think there needs to be a process behind dealing with Chinese IP theft, and other trade issues. One that involves the businesses who are dealing with the problem. In software/tech for example, I think there should be an advisory panel that includes real companies who are trying to navigate the real problem. Make them part of the solution. Work with them to figure out the right way to pressure China. Instead of clumsy tariffs that are damaging the very companies you are supposedly trying to help. Here is what you don't do: 1. Fabricate grievances or cherry pick issues to create the illusion of not playing fair. Like what happened with the steel and aluminum tariffs levied on allies. Or in the NAFTA renegotiation. It means that you cannot be taken seriously as a good faith negotiator, wanting to solve real problems. Pick your spots and focus on REAL grievances that matter. 2. Spray tariffs all over the place, without understanding who you are really hurting. Like Apple, who cannot simply start sourcing tariffed components from places other than China. So Apple is facing tariffs, while the Chinese and Korean competition does not. How does that make any sense? 3. Tweet insults and fabrications to other cultures like the Chinese. It might feel good, but that is not how you negotiate. It simply succeeds in getting the other side to dig in and get more stubborn. There is loss of face problems with the current approach. It also paints a big bulls-eye on the back of the most successful American companies. If I am a Chinese iPhone owner, and America keeps insulting my country and calling us a bunch of thieves, then I can get a little bit even by not buying an iPhone next time. 4. Don't take aggressive and hostile trade measures unilaterally without listening to your own industry players. We have a second rate real estate person, thinking he knows better on how to deal with thorny IP theft and other tech issues, than the leadership of many of the world's best tech companies. Use that asset. Don't sit there like a know-it-all cowboy, and make ill advised dumb decisions, just because you can.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jan 4, 2019 13:24:16 GMT -8
The move today had little to do with Apple. It is a dead cat bounce in my view. I went ahead and bought puts with the funds I have remaining for trading. I also sold 2000 shares from my parents account. When the stock goes down 9% on an earnings revision that has not happened in 18 years, that is giving warning bells that there is more pain ahead in the coming months. I don’t think yesterday’s news is priced into the stock. I would love to be a fly on the wall at the top levels meetings that are surely going on at Apple right now. IMO yesterday's revision reset the 1st quarter numbers so near term the news is priced into the stock. It's going to be all about 2nd quarter guidance and Apple knows whatever they guide they better deliver. They're at a critical juncture, it'll be very interesting to see if they go into a more aggressive mode the way they run the business.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 13:33:24 GMT -8
I think we may be underestimating TC a little. Trump said something that was very important today about Apple. He spoke about TC as a friend and that he thinks Apple will be fine. He pointed out that aapl has gone up 200% since he became president and is not worried about this correction. You all need to read his quotes. macdailynews.com/2019/01/04/president-trump-apple-is-a-great-company-should-build-big-beautiful-plants-in-america/They are investing $350 Billion of the next 5 years. I think they saw the tariff war coming and are slowing moving some manufacting here without pissing off the Chinese too much. It will take years with lots of pain which we are now dealing with. But in the end there is a long game plan. So there is no need to worry about what Apple board is discussing since I think they saw this coming. I should also point out that one of the reasons I became very bullish on Apple long term, was when they announce that Blackrock founder was joining their board. That was 4 years ago. That to me indicates that when the largest financial institution sits on this board, they know the future well before anyone else.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jan 4, 2019 13:41:03 GMT -8
This to me is the biggest issue for Apple. They got into bed with a gov that will steal from them. TC thought that the Chinese growing middle class and their big factories will be enough for Apple. That was a bad gamble. Now they will cheat and steal, and just like Android with out SJ to fight back, TC will try to play nice. His interview yesterday shows he is deathly afraid of the Chinese gov. He has nothing but positive things to say about them. He lied by saying the gov has not targeted Apple.Don’t want to sound too pessimistic but Apple’s business in China is on the way down and if Apple has not started to aggressively move manufacturing out, then the company is in big trouble. A new product and growth in other markets is the only way to offset the drop in sales in China. TC saw the writing on the wall started to educate WS by stopping the disclosing of iPhone numbers. When 65% of your profit comes from one product and 20% of sales are from China, it does not take much of a slide to impact profits quickly. The rise in ASP was starting to offset a flating iPHone curve, but now we must be patient until 2020. Services and wearables will not be enough in the mean time. The drop yesterday points to a low of 117 this year and maybe even lower. We will get a better picture in June. In the mean time we will continue to see big 30 point moves. I will be buying puts shortly.Thanks for not sounding too pessimistic. /s
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 4, 2019 13:41:10 GMT -8
I think we may be underestimating TC a little. Trump said something that was very important today about Apple. He spoke about TC as a friend and that he thinks Apple will be fine. He pointed out that aapl has gone up 200% since he became president and is not worried about this correction. You all need to read his quotes. They are investing $350 Billion of the next 5 years. I think they saw the tariff war coming and are slowing moving some manufacting here without pissing off the Chinese too much. It will take years with lots of pain which we are now dealing with. But in the end there is a long game plan. So there is no need to worry about what Apple board is discussing since I think they saw this coming. I should also point out that one of the reasons I became very bullish on Apple long term, was when they announce that Blackrock founder was joining their board. That was 4 years ago. That to me indicates that when the largest financial institution sits on this board, they know the future well before anyone else. Apple was about $100 in Jan 2016. Today they are at $146. That is not a 200% increase.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 13:43:48 GMT -8
I think we may be underestimating TC a little. Trump said something that was very important today about Apple. He spoke about TC as a friend and that he thinks Apple will be fine. He pointed out that aapl has gone up 200% since he became president and is not worried about this correction. You all need to read his quotes. They are investing $350 Billion of the next 5 years. I think they saw the tariff war coming and are slowing moving some manufacting here without pissing off the Chinese too much. It will take years with lots of pain which we are now dealing with. But in the end there is a long game plan. So there is no need to worry about what Apple board is discussing since I think they saw this coming. I should also point out that one of the reasons I became very bullish on Apple long term, was when they announce that Blackrock founder was joining their board. That was 4 years ago. That to me indicates that when the largest financial institution sits on this board, they know the future well before anyone else. Apple was about $100 in Jan 2016. Today they are at $146. That is not a 200% increase. I believe he was referring to when he was elected at 110 and it went to 233. The point is that if you invest for 5 to 10 years a company like Apple will be fine.
|
|
Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
|
Post by Since84 on Jan 4, 2019 13:46:20 GMT -8
Most would agree a process that involves those affected is called for. However, trade issues are bigger than one company or industry -- and, indeed, the best path to achieve the desired results (i.e. leverage) may not be via affected industries. These are complicated situations and it is not always possible to involve everyone one might like.
Many negotiators do all of the things mentioned. And more.
We don't know who has been consulted. We do know that Tim has had numerous meetings with Trump, often immediately preceding trade actions.
One thing a good negotiator, or card player, never does is reveal their hand. Though they do bluff.
Trump's methodology and mannerism's are, shall we say, unorthodox, but, then again, what is orthodox for issues that heretofore have been ignored?
We shall see. The proof is in the pudding. I was reasonably surprised with the NAFTA results -- though I don't think it was the 'huge' breakthrough Trump likes to portray.
I personally believe the 'best' negotiators are those who have both sides feeling like the won. I question whether that's possible for Trump.
I apologize if this has gotten too Trump specific. I'm a sceptic of all politicians.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 13:55:40 GMT -8
Regarding NAFTA, I have personal experience in this after dealing with the Dept of Commerce and Mexico. THe new deal is not great. There is a joke in DC that all they did was change the name. I actually think the same thing will happen with China. But it will take a few more months and it does not change the fact that their economy is not growing.
Regarding Apple and China Tariffs, I think the Chinese can bring the whole US stock market down by going after the largest company on WS. If they want to make a point in negotiations they simply have to go after Apple.
I would not put it past them to shut Foxconn plants down for a few weeks, just remind us that they have us by the balls right now.
Some time back, I posted that I noticed a large OI in the Jan 140 puts. There were about 40K contracts I thought that was a fluke. I need to look back and see when I made that observation, but I think we were still trading at 220 then.
|
|
stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
|
Post by stub on Jan 4, 2019 14:18:52 GMT -8
Most would agree a process that involves those affected is called for. However, trade issues are bigger than one company or industry -- and, indeed, the best path to achieve the desired results (i.e. leverage) may not be via affected industries. These are complicated situations and it is not always possible to involve everyone one might like. Many negotiators do all of the things mentioned. And more. We don't know who has been consulted. We do know that Tim has had numerous meetings with Trump, often immediately preceding trade actions. One thing a good negotiator, or card player, never does is reveal their hand. Though they do bluff. Trump's methodology and mannerism's are, shall we say, unorthodox, but, then again, what is orthodox for issues that heretofore have been ignored? We shall see. The proof is in the pudding. I was reasonably surprised with the NAFTA results -- though I don't think it was the 'huge' breakthrough Trump likes to portray. I personally believe the 'best' negotiators are those who have both sides feeling like the won. I question whether that's possible for Trump. I apologize if this has gotten too Trump specific. I'm a sceptic of all politicians. That's OK. It's OK to have apolitical opinions about politics, we're not in college anymore.
|
|
|
Post by gtrplyr on Jan 4, 2019 14:31:58 GMT -8
I think we may be underestimating TC a little. Trump said something that was very important today about Apple. He spoke about TC as a friend and that he thinks Apple will be fine. He pointed out that aapl has gone up 200% since he became president and is not worried about this correction. . The fact that Trump isn't worried ..... worries the hell out of me. I don't think we are underestimating TC , I think you are overestimating Trump. TC a friend of Trump?? I don't claim to be friends with TC and maybe I'm going out on a limb.... but I kind of get the feeling TC is no friend of Trump. Finally .... Apple was trading just slightly over $100 in Jan of '16 .... how do you get 200% increase when the ATH is $233.47? EDITED Have a nice weekend.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jan 4, 2019 14:53:12 GMT -8
Some time back, I posted that I noticed a large OI in the Jan 140 puts. There were about 40K contracts I thought that was a fluke. I need to look back and see when I made that observation, but I think we were still trading at 220 then.
I just checked, there's tons of Jan 18 put options out there right now. Some of the high numbered ones: 100 strike 47K, 140 strike 43K, 145 strike 39K, 150 strike 29K, 160 strike 35K, 170 strike 28K, 180 strike 27K
A lot of them could of been put on hedging long positions.
|
|
|
Post by deasys on Jan 4, 2019 16:53:11 GMT -8
Apple was about $100 in Jan 2016. Today they are at $146. That is not a 200% increase. I believe he was referring to when he was elected at 110 and it went to 233. The point is that if you invest for 5 to 10 years a company like Apple will be fine. I think the point is that 46% is not "200%" and that the President makes sh!t up. Shocker, right?
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Jan 4, 2019 17:18:35 GMT -8
Huawei is the Xiaomi everyone was worried about years ago, except they’re proving to be an actual threat. The perfect storm of competent devices, ridiculous iPhone prices and apathy for the next shiny new smartphone and anti-American sentiment has hit. China is a terrible place do any sort of long term business. Apple should take what they can but plan to avoid China as much as possible going forward.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 4, 2019 18:10:40 GMT -8
Huawei is the Xiaomi everyone was worried about years ago, except they’re proving to be an actual threat. The perfect storm of competent devices, ridiculous iPhone prices and apathy for the next shiny new smartphone and anti-American sentiment has hit. China is a terrible place do any sort of long term business. Apple should take what they can but plan to avoid China as much as possible going forward. Good points. I do recall concerns about Xiomi, just as we were concerned about every other company in the last 10 years. I think Apple is raising prices for one of two reasons. Once synical view is this. They only want big profits which turns into big bucks for its executives who will be gone in 10 years and don’t care about long term health of the company as they cash out. Or the other view is that today, it may be difficult to justify paying so much, but when one relies onthe iPhone for so many important activities of living, Apple can afford to raise the price. As the product improves and offers things that no one does, then it is easier to justify the price. 10 years ago no one in their right mind would pay $800 for a phone. Texting and calling was enough. We take it for granded how much we use our iPhones. Personally I was shocked to see the other day that over a span of about 30 days I had 30 different apps open in the background. I just upgraded stereos in my two cars and now have CarPlay. It is an awesome experience to talk thru the speakers, have a big screen for navigation, and use Siri for many commands. CarPlay I think has big future that goes beyond a Apple Car. I can’t live without my Apple Watch and Apple Pay. The camera and iCloud are critical for amazing pictures, music consumption in a family of 4, and just management of documents and communication on 8 different devices. The points I am trying to make is that Apple found itself with a hit product which morphed into an amazing ecosytem of services and products. The original iPHone could only be produced in China in 2007. As it became more popular to Chinese consumers it was a win win to continue to expand manufacturing growth there. Now they are paying a price in many ways. I think they can still manufacture iPhones there and still sell to the affluent Chinese consumers. But an adjustment will have to be made when it comes to dealing with trade and bringing jobs home to keep the politicians happy. That adjustment will cause pain for the company and its stockholders short term.. It is part of investing. It is sad that everyone who hates Trump so much, blame him for Apple’s problems and even when he says positive things about the company they dismiss those comments. Apple is an investment of a lifetime and its best days are still years from now. The iPHone is not done and I can come up with many improvements that will compel millions to upgrade or buy for the first time. Improvements in cellular services, batteries, charging, camera, processors, screen, size, new features will be added for many years. When it becomes linked with your other gaming and wearable devices along with more and more houses and cars, it will become even more important in our lives. It will create new industries and expand existing ones. My son just signed up as an app developer with Apple last night. He had to do so since he needs to work with Swift. After doing several apps he is now knee deep in more app development. He will earn a very good living from it. So the iPhone is impacting him in ways that was not even an option two years ago. Trump and WS know all this. So it is not a surprise that the market will reward the investors greatly if they hang on as they did for the last 20 years. This regardless of who is president and where they make their products.
|
|