Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2019 3:29:22 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2019 3:55:57 GMT -8
A note on the Board
This is an AAPL Board. Discussion is intended to be all things impacting AAPL which includes the broader markets, public policy, even tangentially related topics.
It can be a challenge to post on some things, without having them blow up into something else, such as a political debate. As this is not a political debate site, when we venture there many tune out.
Let's redouble our efforts to keep politics in the dungeon.
This is not to suggest that we avoid the AAPL ramifications of public policy. Indeed we should be having robust conversation as to how and why a trade war, for instance, may or may not impact Apple. However, upon writing a post please reread before posting. Are you advocating for or against a particular policy or politician? If so, then consider editing your post or posting it to the dungeon.
There is a ton of grey here. It's easy to get sucked in. Please do your best.
***
For the most part, this is a self moderated board. The moderators do little more than point out that a post went too far. Usually, this will include a reference to what, specifically, went too far. It may be communicated through PM.
To my knowledge, the only people who have ever been banned from this Board have been spammers. No one has been banned in many, many years, likely because only registered members can post now.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jan 7, 2019 4:49:50 GMT -8
I love that privacy ad! More like that please apple.
Also intrigued and excited by apple allowing samsung (or vice versa) airplay etc. This is significant new for services with the coming tv show/service push.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 7, 2019 8:06:12 GMT -8
I love that privacy ad! More like that please apple. Also intrigued and excited by apple allowing samsung (or vice versa) airplay etc. This is significant new for services with the coming tv show/service push. Would be nice to bring that sort of thing to people's attention via TV ads. It's looking more and more like that may be the one differentianting factor that Android would have a very hard time copying. BTW, any reason we just dropped again? I noticed we were up a little and then bam .....
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Post by appledoc on Jan 7, 2019 9:17:33 GMT -8
I love that privacy ad! More like that please apple. Also intrigued and excited by apple allowing samsung (or vice versa) airplay etc. This is significant new for services with the coming tv show/service push. Would be nice to bring that sort of thing to people's attention via TV ads. It's looking more and more like that may be the one differentianting factor that Android would have a very hard time copying. BTW, any reason we just dropped again? I noticed we were up a little and then bam ..... AAPL is going to have a very hard time keeping pace with the market until sentiment changes. It reached +6% from last week's low. Those kinds of gains in a negative environment are going to get sold off.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 7, 2019 9:27:28 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 7, 2019 10:10:18 GMT -8
Watched it yesterday and it does indeed put some very good perspective on things .... BTW that "fake" Tim Cook letter that Gruber wrote is fantastic. Tim is Tim .... sometimes I do miss Steve Job's spunk .....
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 7, 2019 10:19:51 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 7, 2019 10:30:15 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 7, 2019 11:25:23 GMT -8
Dediu article posted at Asymco. I'll read it in detail tonight, but from skimming it, he's as good as always.
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Jan 7, 2019 11:38:03 GMT -8
The patently apple link/graph is a bit odd. It shows nothing for iPhone 8 in 2018 column... that's where the interesting metric will lie, in some cases. I just bought an 8 ($539 new from Apple), since it was nearly as good as the Xr from what I could see, for my needs, and $200+ cheaper. I expect as long as the 8 is available, it will get fairly significant sales just on price. What they should really do is repackage the 8 into a slightly smaller form factor, and sell it as the SE2 for a reasonable price. There's a big vacuum left in the market at that price point (Previous SE price of about $350).
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2019 11:38:52 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Jan 7, 2019 11:39:54 GMT -8
While we're sitting in the penalty box the way I look at it is there's a compelling case to be made for the business model shift to subscription services. Other companies have done it recently with great success and I have confidence that Apple will also. Two that come to mind are Boeing and Microsoft, both have upped their FCF through subscription services. Boeing currently has a FCF yield of 8.0% and Microsoft has a FCF yield of 5.7% and when you look at Apple's FCF yield even after their guidance revision it's at 10.0%. The numbers are eventually going to matter to the street... Plus plan(s) could be implemented which bundle various combinations of hardware and services.
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2019 13:05:08 GMT -8
Dediu article posted at Asymco. I'll read it in detail tonight, but from skimming it, he's as good as always. This is the same guy that tried to extrapolate data on capital expenses to come up with $120 Billion for CQ4. Apple is reporting 84 so he was off by 36 billion. I think Apple is not a luxury company when minimum wage folks own the iPhone XS. They are trying by raising prices while trying to get us to focus on services. Revenue dropped 7.5% from 2015 to 2016. I think we should expect that type of a drop between FY2018 to 2019. Buckle down because the stock will most likely reflect that come January 2020.
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Post by sponge on Jan 7, 2019 13:08:27 GMT -8
The patently apple link/graph is a bit odd. It shows nothing for iPhone 8 in 2018 column... that's where the interesting metric will lie, in some cases. I just bought an 8 ($539 new from Apple), since it was nearly as good as the Xr from what I could see, for my needs, and $200+ cheaper. I expect as long as the 8 is available, it will get fairly significant sales just on price. What they should really do is repackage the 8 into a slightly smaller form factor, and sell it as the SE2 for a reasonable price. There's a big vacuum left in the market at that price point (Previous SE price of about $350). How did you get it for 539 when the base price is 599?
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 7, 2019 13:59:40 GMT -8
While we're sitting in the penalty box the way I look at it is there's a compelling case to be made for the business model shift to subscription services. Other companies have done it recently with great success and I have confidence that Apple will also. Two that come to mind are Boeing and Microsoft, both have upped their FCF through subscription services. Boeing currently has a FCF yield of 8.0% and Microsoft has a FCF yield of 5.7% and when you look at Apple's FCF yield even after their guidance revision it's at 10.0%. The numbers are eventually going to matter to the street... Plus plan(s) could be implemented which bundle various combinations of hardware and services. That's an excellent point. While were all being distracted with iPhone doom and gloom, Apple IS planning it's next stock price goosing "holly COW! what a great idea" moment. And nobody will have saw it coming (except some of us). And no one will even mention that when the stock price recovers/reaches new highs. Did ya ever notice that btw? Nobody ever asks "why didn't the stock price jive with the predictions" when the stock goes up. But when I goes down we get all analytical about it. Human nature I guess (or Wall Street nature).
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 7, 2019 14:04:46 GMT -8
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 7, 2019 14:09:12 GMT -8
One more thing...
With regards to a stronger US dollar hurting the profits for the iPhone...
well, as I understand it, Apple has manufacturing plants in places where the country's currency would be down against the US dollar.
So, it's a pretty good possibility that the planners at Apple are no dopes, and they have set it up so that even if the dollar goes up on the buying end it'll compensate for that on the manufacturing end (and vice versa).
So, that's why I wouldn't necessarily get too excited about that either way.
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Post by montegn on Jan 7, 2019 20:32:51 GMT -8
Thank you for reminding me of his site-to ono reference: Dediu article posted at Asymco
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