I am starting to accept that the Q1 restating of guidance is priced in.
What is not are macro events. The 215K put contracts for SPY at 225 got my attention. Many people are betting that the China trade deal will not happen by March.
What is also not priced in is the US economy. By July we should have enough data to see if we are entering a mild resession. I will keep an eye on July puts for any hints.
Regarding Apple in and fundamentals, I looked back at the number between 2015 and 2016. EPS dropped about 12%. If we follow that pattern, Apple may not hit a low until early 2020. Just look for that 9 p/e and multiply by where the you think the EPS will be then.
The exciting news is that Apple tends to move quite nicely after the bottom is in. We had two years where we moved 60% two years in a row.
As usual we will overshoot what many think is the bottom and be oversold. I will also keep an eye on the RSI which hit 19 last Feb. In Dec we go to 24.
The VIX has kept us and the market from serious crashes. That may not be the case this summer. The S&P thends to lag aapl by 3.5x percentage wise. In other words if the S&P is up 8% aapl is up 28%. So that could be a guide as we go down. Right now it appears we will follow 1:1.
Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement.
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5