Wall Street, having slept on its irrational exuberance; and in spite of petty nagging, braying, and naysaying from the press; awakens and decides, on reflection, that things really *weren’t* so bad all these months and so, BUY.
SPY barely moved in AH. Apple will be brought down to earth when the market corrects. I expect to see 142 or lower by end of March.
Despite the negativity the opportunity to make money from aapl is huge. In the next 12 months there will be a number of corrections and rallies.
ok, i'm really confused... are you long or short aapl??
if you're genuinely expecting 142 "or lower" by end of March in next 2 months... then you should be short... or if you're long, you should sell everything and go short.
then you say in next sentence 'opportunity to make money from aapl is huge'. on long side or short side? what's your buy point? what's your sell point?
walterwhite: Not sure how long you've been a board member, but I've been around long enough to see a pattern of the Sponge's posts. That is, each and every day he's all over the place. He's always thrown out random predictions to the board and changes his mind on the direction of the stock almost daily. He was an uber bull until the 2013 crash. After admitting to the board that he lost a huge chunk of his portfolio I believe he changed his mantra a bit to understand that short term bear markets can, and do happen with AAPL. As such, I believe he is both bull & bear.
Please note, this is not an insult or intended rude post to Sponge. Just trying to provide some historical context to his posts.
I was referring to questions answered. They only answered 5 banks, normally we would get 8-10.
I hold no position in aapl. I do have spy puts expiring in March.
The opportunity to make money in aapl is based on how volatile it is
We will hit an RSI of 25 again. But I am waiting for 19. I may have to wait 12 months.
The stock always moves 25% up after the lows of the summer. I don’t see that this year, however we move at least 15% into new iPhones release. So we could be in a bear market and still make money. I see most of my money being made being short this year.
P/E has also dropped to 9. It will happen again. The p/e of 19 was much too high
I am bullish and bearish based on where I believe the company is going. Their high prices is making me bearish in the next 12 months. I have been preaching that since Sept. world economies are making those high prices a bigger issue.
However in the near term I think aapl will follow the market and not lead it.
The move from 142 to 158 was market driven.
All TA show a big crash coming in the S&P.
I saw that back in Oct and did not quite believe it. I am seeing that in March and July.
I agree that, especially with AAPL, sentiment is more important than fundamentals. One of my views of the market divides shareholders into fundamental, technical and noise investors. I think that in todays automated markets, the noise investors react to the FUD and then the algos pile on. This is just my personal view, I offer no justification for it.
A year or so ago, I offered the conjecture that noise investors were piling on to AAPL, lining up to get a share of the repatriated dividends. I think they stayed for the ride up to the trillion dollar valuation. I don't believe that the noise investors really buy the stock to make money. I believe that they think that is the reason, but ultimately, they act to protect their ego. It is what makes them vulnerable to FUD.
The next year or so IMHO is going to try the patience of long term investors. Evolutionary products don't excite the noise investors. We are at the top of the S curve for 4G. While the Fudsters talk about cell phone saturation, I don't buy it. 200 million replace their iPhones every year. When the 5G infrastructure is available, I would expect to see some years when that doubles. But that is 1-2 years out. In the meantime, I expect us to move sideways. I am going to continue selling covered calls, collecting dividends and investing both in accumulating AAPL shares. Don't take this as advice. I know nothing.
Edit after 12 hours of thinking about this:
I am guilty of the same tunnel vision that most analysts are guilty of, i.e. I projected forward based solely on iPhones. There is nothing to prevent Apple from blowing things open with entirely new products at any time in the next year and a half. Selling covered calls would cause you to miss out if this happened. Proceed at your own risk.
Sure seem to be a lot of stories lately about iPhone hacks/bugs affecting privacy. I hope Tim has a team focused on this, even though "Apple ejected Facebook from the business app program, saying in a statement on Wednesday the program was “solely for the internal distribution of apps within an organization.”” The Zuckerberg mafia strikes again; what an evil company they are.
Last Edit: Jan 30, 2019 15:12:06 GMT -5 by chinacat
I see that some of the stories are trotting out the tired old "Apple/iPhone needs a killer app" nonsense. Written by hacks that should be off cleaning toilets or selling lemonade.
The killer app is already here. It is wearables. With the runaway winner requiring an iPhone. Some day we all will be seen as primitive because we don't monitor our bodies at all. That will be seen as the dumbest thing ever. Wearables plus health is going to be massive. Who else does anyone see winning this, besides Apple.
And if that is not enough, wearables (like glasses, with AR) will also become ubiquitous. Not as big as health, but still huge.
The wearables market and use case maturity are in their infancy. Apple is far ahead of everyone in the enabling technology starting point. No one else is close.
Good stuff. For once I actually agree w/ JC. Apple watch + health will be much bigger than many seem to anticipate. If insurance covers it, the cost will be much less of a factor for many. My opinion only FWIW.
And bud777, I may start selling some covered calls on a portion of my AAPL holdings in my taxable account to generate some addition income. I've always been afraid that something big will happen and I'll loose my shares and regret it. FOMO I guess. I'm gonna look closely at this over the weekend. Any tips, suggestions or pointers are appreciated
We are back above the 50 day SMA, which I view as a good thing™️. I traded my lottery ticket calls for a few 160s out in March. (Don’t pat me on the back, I bought and lost on other calls pre-earnings.)
I hold a decent amount of TSLA bear spreads in March and June. I think Tesla is going to be having some serious cash issues in the next 6 months. Tonight’s earnings call should be interesting.
The bigger thing is being up over $20 from the floor of $142 intraday/142.19 close back on 1-3-19.
While I like Apple News, it does have it's flaws, like trying to find instantaneous news (looking for details half hour after earnings came out yesterday), and hunting down links of stories you read.
Yesterday or the day before there was a good article on 5 or 6 things pre-market for the S&P, and one was from an investment company that was trying to look at risk differently. Instead of just looking at the bad things that potentially could happen, they were trying to also come up with risk to the upside, that things could turn out better than expected. Such as that US consumers could be resilient and continue spending, or that housing could uptick.
Personally, like some here I'm at the point where the day to day or month to month movements don't matter much. While I find it a little tough to ignore the market, in a trend like this it is a little easier to be slightly pessimistic, thus being pleasantly surprised if things turn out better. AAPL will come back, though it could take a while. I've been invested in AAPL for over 21 years now, so while I still feel it may be unjust, I don't realistically expect AAPL's P/E ratio to ever be on par with some other company that may or may not seem similar. Each company is different, or rather each set of investors in a company is different, and their valuation of such varies.
+ 11.07 now. Not that it matters much. I don't expect AAPL to re-reach $230+ for a while, potentially over a year, unless they really shock and aww. At the same time, I would give over 50% odds on getting into a 170-195 range, and playing around in that for 4-13 months.
But I also don't see AAPL's RSI going sub-30 again in the next year, partially because I don't see the economy or markets tanking. This last 4 months was the shock that the long uptrend that was getting overheated needed, all while the employment market continues to be great, which self-drives the economy and thus the market, even if there is some play in there to not always keep things in lock-step. While there are things in the market, in the US or globally, that could cause hiccups, IMO that wall of worry has really been absorbed in the past 4 months.
(got in 7 hours of skiing with my 9 year old yesterday, for 25k vertical (don't normally care, but Macster, your post got me curious). I checked in on news a couple times, but with having fun with my daughter on a weekday at a nearly empty mountain, the prevailing quote in my mind was "Life doesn't get much better than this" from 'Mater.)
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5