Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2019 3:16:46 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 3:43:45 GMT -8
Wall Street, having slept on its irrational exuberance; and in spite of petty nagging, braying, and naysaying from the press; awakens and decides, on reflection, that things really *weren’t* so bad all these months and so, BUY.
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 4:12:52 GMT -8
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Post by lulli on Jan 30, 2019 7:26:24 GMT -8
Weird how nobody is talking about PE ratio....
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 30, 2019 8:19:03 GMT -8
This was the shortest CC in a long time. [/div]
Huh?? aren't they all same length of just under 1 hour??
SPY barely moved in AH. Apple will be brought down to earth when the market corrects. I expect to see 142 or lower by end of March. Despite the negativity the opportunity to make money from aapl is huge. In the next 12 months there will be a number of corrections and rallies.
ok, i'm really confused... are you long or short aapl??
if you're genuinely expecting 142 "or lower" by end of March in next 2 months... then you should be short... or if you're long, you should sell everything and go short.
then you say in next sentence 'opportunity to make money from aapl is huge'. on long side or short side? what's your buy point? what's your sell point?
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 8:28:38 GMT -8
$163+ (edited fat fingered mistake Someone needs to say it. This place is dead today. WHHEEEEE.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 30, 2019 8:49:36 GMT -8
$163+ (edited fat fingered mistake Someone needs to say it. This place is dead today. WHHEEEEE.
still licking my wounds a bit... bought some last spring around 175 and summer around 190... sold a little at 220 (missed 230 top) but bought back too soon around 190 again.
it was 222 heading into nov 1 earnings.
i'm relieved today but not ready to celebrate
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 8:57:20 GMT -8
Sentiment is an amazing thing. When it turns, in either direction, the stock often moves accordingly.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jan 30, 2019 9:09:49 GMT -8
This was the shortest CC in a long time. [/div] Huh?? aren't they all same length of just under 1 hour??
SPY barely moved in AH. Apple will be brought down to earth when the market corrects. I expect to see 142 or lower by end of March. Despite the negativity the opportunity to make money from aapl is huge. In the next 12 months there will be a number of corrections and rallies. ok, i'm really confused... are you long or short aapl?? if you're genuinely expecting 142 "or lower" by end of March in next 2 months... then you should be short... or if you're long, you should sell everything and go short. then you say in next sentence 'opportunity to make money from aapl is huge'. on long side or short side? what's your buy point? what's your sell point?
[/quote] walterwhite: Not sure how long you've been a board member, but I've been around long enough to see a pattern of the Sponge's posts. That is, each and every day he's all over the place. He's always thrown out random predictions to the board and changes his mind on the direction of the stock almost daily. He was an uber bull until the 2013 crash. After admitting to the board that he lost a huge chunk of his portfolio I believe he changed his mantra a bit to understand that short term bear markets can, and do happen with AAPL. As such, I believe he is both bull & bear. Please note, this is not an insult or intended rude post to Sponge. Just trying to provide some historical context to his posts.
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 9:27:00 GMT -8
I was referring to questions answered. They only answered 5 banks, normally we would get 8-10.
I hold no position in aapl. I do have spy puts expiring in March.
The opportunity to make money in aapl is based on how volatile it is
We will hit an RSI of 25 again. But I am waiting for 19. I may have to wait 12 months.
The stock always moves 25% up after the lows of the summer. I don’t see that this year, however we move at least 15% into new iPhones release. So we could be in a bear market and still make money. I see most of my money being made being short this year.
P/E has also dropped to 9. It will happen again. The p/e of 19 was much too high
I am bullish and bearish based on where I believe the company is going. Their high prices is making me bearish in the next 12 months. I have been preaching that since Sept. world economies are making those high prices a bigger issue.
However in the near term I think aapl will follow the market and not lead it.
The move from 142 to 158 was market driven.
All TA show a big crash coming in the S&P.
I saw that back in Oct and did not quite believe it. I am seeing that in March and July.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 30, 2019 9:59:21 GMT -8
I agree that, especially with AAPL, sentiment is more important than fundamentals. One of my views of the market divides shareholders into fundamental, technical and noise investors. I think that in todays automated markets, the noise investors react to the FUD and then the algos pile on. This is just my personal view, I offer no justification for it.
A year or so ago, I offered the conjecture that noise investors were piling on to AAPL, lining up to get a share of the repatriated dividends. I think they stayed for the ride up to the trillion dollar valuation. I don't believe that the noise investors really buy the stock to make money. I believe that they think that is the reason, but ultimately, they act to protect their ego. It is what makes them vulnerable to FUD.
The next year or so IMHO is going to try the patience of long term investors. Evolutionary products don't excite the noise investors. We are at the top of the S curve for 4G. While the Fudsters talk about cell phone saturation, I don't buy it. 200 million replace their iPhones every year. When the 5G infrastructure is available, I would expect to see some years when that doubles. But that is 1-2 years out. In the meantime, I expect us to move sideways. I am going to continue selling covered calls, collecting dividends and investing both in accumulating AAPL shares. Don't take this as advice. I know nothing.
Edit after 12 hours of thinking about this:
I am guilty of the same tunnel vision that most analysts are guilty of, i.e. I projected forward based solely on iPhones. There is nothing to prevent Apple from blowing things open with entirely new products at any time in the next year and a half. Selling covered calls would cause you to miss out if this happened. Proceed at your own risk.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 30, 2019 10:20:36 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 10:34:52 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2019 10:44:17 GMT -8
For some reason the mantra, “always wrong, but never in doubt” comes to mind. Cramer is right about one thing; buy and hold, don’t trade AAPL. Just ride out all the 🐂💩 and over time you will be rewarded. BTW, Caterpillar had record earnings. And Harley’s problem was more from recalls than tariffs: www.marketwatch.com/story/harley-davidson-was-hurt-more-by-recalls-than-tariffs-2019-01-29I’m not saying there hasn’t been some short term pain in China, but PRC has been playing dirty back since Democrats were against Most Favored Nation status for them. 😜 And PRC is hurting right now. IMO, they’ll eventually capitulate. But only idjuts make predictions on public forums. 😂 If you aren’t following Mav on Twitter, you should: So Apple has 50M subscribers x >$10/mo with 63% GM’s. 💰 Happy Green After Earnings™ Day to all! 🍻📈
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Post by Lstream on Jan 30, 2019 10:53:05 GMT -8
I see that some of the stories are trotting out the tired old "Apple/iPhone needs a killer app" nonsense. Written by hacks that should be off cleaning toilets or selling lemonade.
The killer app is already here. It is wearables. With the runaway winner requiring an iPhone. Some day we all will be seen as primitive because we don't monitor our bodies at all. That will be seen as the dumbest thing ever. Wearables plus health is going to be massive. Who else does anyone see winning this, besides Apple.
And if that is not enough, wearables (like glasses, with AR) will also become ubiquitous. Not as big as health, but still huge.
The wearables market and use case maturity are in their infancy. Apple is far ahead of everyone in the enabling technology starting point. No one else is close.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 30, 2019 10:59:19 GMT -8
Good stuff. For once I actually agree w/ JC. Apple watch + health will be much bigger than many seem to anticipate. If insurance covers it, the cost will be much less of a factor for many. My opinion only FWIW. And bud777, I may start selling some covered calls on a portion of my AAPL holdings in my taxable account to generate some addition income. I've always been afraid that something big will happen and I'll loose my shares and regret it. FOMO I guess. I'm gonna look closely at this over the weekend. Any tips, suggestions or pointers are appreciated Cheers to the longs. 🍺
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Post by dmiller on Jan 30, 2019 11:06:32 GMT -8
+$9.19
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Post by mrentropy on Jan 30, 2019 11:52:41 GMT -8
We are back above the 50 day SMA, which I view as a good thing™️. I traded my lottery ticket calls for a few 160s out in March. (Don’t pat me on the back, I bought and lost on other calls pre-earnings.)
I hold a decent amount of TSLA bear spreads in March and June. I think Tesla is going to be having some serious cash issues in the next 6 months. Tonight’s earnings call should be interesting.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 30, 2019 12:04:01 GMT -8
+ $10.20....and changing by the second. The bigger thing is being up over $20 from the floor of $142 intraday/142.19 close back on 1-3-19. While I like Apple News, it does have it's flaws, like trying to find instantaneous news (looking for details half hour after earnings came out yesterday), and hunting down links of stories you read. Yesterday or the day before there was a good article on 5 or 6 things pre-market for the S&P, and one was from an investment company that was trying to look at risk differently. Instead of just looking at the bad things that potentially could happen, they were trying to also come up with risk to the upside, that things could turn out better than expected. Such as that US consumers could be resilient and continue spending, or that housing could uptick. Personally, like some here I'm at the point where the day to day or month to month movements don't matter much. While I find it a little tough to ignore the market, in a trend like this it is a little easier to be slightly pessimistic, thus being pleasantly surprised if things turn out better. AAPL will come back, though it could take a while. I've been invested in AAPL for over 21 years now, so while I still feel it may be unjust, I don't realistically expect AAPL's P/E ratio to ever be on par with some other company that may or may not seem similar. Each company is different, or rather each set of investors in a company is different, and their valuation of such varies. + 11.07 now. Not that it matters much. I don't expect AAPL to re-reach $230+ for a while, potentially over a year, unless they really shock and aww. At the same time, I would give over 50% odds on getting into a 170-195 range, and playing around in that for 4-13 months. But I also don't see AAPL's RSI going sub-30 again in the next year, partially because I don't see the economy or markets tanking. This last 4 months was the shock that the long uptrend that was getting overheated needed, all while the employment market continues to be great, which self-drives the economy and thus the market, even if there is some play in there to not always keep things in lock-step. While there are things in the market, in the US or globally, that could cause hiccups, IMO that wall of worry has really been absorbed in the past 4 months. $166 (got in 7 hours of skiing with my 9 year old yesterday, for 25k vertical (don't normally care, but Macster, your post got me curious). I checked in on news a couple times, but with having fun with my daughter on a weekday at a nearly empty mountain, the prevailing quote in my mind was "Life doesn't get much better than this" from 'Mater.)
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2019 12:39:24 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2019 13:01:12 GMT -8
WOW.
What a day. Didn't see this coming.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 30, 2019 13:03:53 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 30, 2019 13:48:35 GMT -8
4,745,398,000 shares of common stock were issued and outstanding as of October 26, 2018. here
84,528,000 share reduction 4,715,280,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.00001 per share, issued and outstanding as of January 18, 2019 here30,118,000 share reduction
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 30, 2019 13:52:10 GMT -8
WOW. What a day. Didn't see this coming. 60,634,345 volume.......
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2019 14:16:21 GMT -8
Interesting piece by Horace Dediu: www.asymco.com/2019/01/30/a-billion-users/“Apple stated in the latest conference call that very little of Services revenues depends on the any previous quarter’s unit sales confirming that Services is driven almost entirely from the user base. With almost a billion users, 90+% loyalty rate, 95% satisfaction, 120 million paid subscriptions and 75 million new users/yr, the analysis of Apple as a services company is becoming interesting” I think it would be wise to keep in mind the pitch that Steve first made to the carriers about why they should support iPhone: it’s a salesman for your data plans. Going forward, should we not look at our “software company,” as Tim likes to call it, the same way?
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 16:53:17 GMT -8
You know this market is nuts when the Fed confirms that the economy is slowing down and we go up 400 points. Further more FB goes up 15% in less then 8 hours.
Since we closed above 163 we should be ready to see 174 and then 184.
Let’s see if the Chinese are as successful as Nacy in getting Trump to cry Uncle this week. My money is that he will blink.
Thought he had guts but it is clear he can’t stand the heat and will fold quite easily.
The economy is still getting softer and little he does will change that at this point.
I see a big infrastructure bill passing by end of year.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 30, 2019 17:26:20 GMT -8
walterwhite : Not sure how long you've been a board member, but I've been around long enough to see a pattern of the Sponge's posts. That is, each and every day he's all over the place. He's always thrown out random predictions to the board and changes his mind on the direction of the stock almost daily. He was an uber bull until the 2013 crash. After admitting to the board that he lost a huge chunk of his portfolio I believe he changed his mantra a bit to understand that short term bear markets can, and do happen with AAPL. As such, I believe he is both bull & bear. Please note, this is not an insult or intended rude post to Sponge. Just trying to provide some historical context to his posts. @rhme1999 - thanks, i've been lurking since 2014, bought around $100... missed the 2015 tops and rode out the trip back to $100 (and below, to $90) in 2016. added quite a bit there, but again largely missed the top in 2018... collecting dividends, though, so that's nice. i try not to trade much and i don't really trust technicals, though occasionally read about them (mostly here on the board). i noticed sponge's often erratic posts, and i also absolutely don't mean it as an insult... just trying to understand the logic, honestly...
My strategy is mostly to stay passively long. i like the posts on this board that take the long-term perspective. wouldn't mind 'trading around' core position too; kicking myself for not selling more in summer/early fall last year.
Anyway, cheers to the longs! today was a good day.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 30, 2019 17:37:37 GMT -8
I hold no position in aapl. I do have spy puts expiring in March. The opportunity to make money in aapl is based on how volatile it is We will hit an RSI of 25 again. But I am waiting for 19. I may have to wait 12 months. The stock always moves 25% up after the lows of the summer. I don’t see that this year, however we move at least 15% into new iPhones release. So we could be in a bear market and still make money. I see most of my money being made being short this year. P/E has also dropped to 9. It will happen again. The p/e of 19 was much too high I am bullish and bearish based on where I believe the company is going. Their high prices is making me bearish in the next 12 months. I have been preaching that since Sept. world economies are making those high prices a bigger issue. However in the near term I think aapl will follow the market and not lead it. The move from 142 to 158 was market driven. All TA show a big crash coming in the S&P. I saw that back in Oct and did not quite believe it. I am seeing that in March and July.
ok so your buy point would be whenever aapl hits RSI of 19 or p/e of 9? so it's technical-driven or valuation-driven...
good luck, i guess... i personally would hate to sit on this much cash being unused...
i hope 4aapl is right and aapl doesn't go sub-30 RSI. sentiment was so low heading into yesterday, looks like it turned earlier this time than in the past.
your PE of 9 is an assumption that aapl would revisit lows similar to the past, but there may be a genuine change in market understanding of aapl, especially with services narrative, bubacks and warren buffett
anything can happen in a genuine recession of course, but i'm hoping 2019 is not the year.
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 17:47:59 GMT -8
A p/e of 9 is very possible. We did two times before. Last time was only only 3 years ago. The p/e of 19 was not sustainable.
Eps will drop in the next 12 months. First drop Apple just guided for this Q. Most are looking at 11.60 for the FY19. Apply a p/e of 9 and you get 104. I think we can overshoot it by 10% the same way we overshot to the upside this last summer.
So it is based on fundamentals. TA also indicate that.
People confuse my bullishness for the company with not being consistent.
I do think TC needs to go and prices have gotten to high. They won’t lower them enough and we will suffer.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 30, 2019 20:31:31 GMT -8
A p/e of 9 is very possible. We did two times before. Last time was only only 3 years ago. The p/e of 19 was not sustainable. Eps will drop in the next 12 months. First drop Apple just guided for this Q. Most are looking at 11.60 for the FY19. Apply a p/e of 9 and you get 104. I think we can overshoot it by 10% the same way we overshot to the upside this last summer. Looking at early 2013 on market watch which has a P/E graph, it shows the P/E getting down to under 9.0 for 3 trading days. Getting down to 55 (split adjusted), and using my notes of TTE of $44.10 (not adjusted), that gives 8.73. Ouch. But 3 days later earnings came out, dropping 18% YOY, and that P/E jumps to 9.6. Next Q, earnings were down YOY 20%. So 9ish was seen when earnings dropped about 20% YOY, for 6 months, though they were 10-10.5 most of that time (and jumping to above 11 after the 2nd decreasing Q was announced at the end of July) 2016 wasn't quite so bad, though the P/E dropped just below 10. The difference this time, so far, is that EPS are up. The 4.18 just announced is up 7.4% YOY. The resulting 12 month trailing number is 12.16 (my number, just adding up the 4 quarters....official number might be different), up 24% from a year ago. Yahoo shows analysts are expecting 2019 to be just barely up, at 11.95 vs 11.91 for 2018. And for 2020, they are currently listing 13.33, for an 11.5% increase over that 11.95 estimate. While we often have varying opinions of analysts and their estimates, and all of those numbers are averages using over 30 analyst numbers, including some that seem too low to me, while also some that might be too high. But tossing that aside, they aren't expecting a 20% decrease in earnings per share (at least on an annual basis), and so I don't see any reason to use an exceptionally low P/E from a past period where Apple's earnings did plummet that much. Like throwing around the term beleaguered, there might be a time and a place, but this doesn't seem to be one of them. Like my being slightly pessimistic in the extremely short term (days), vs cautiously optimistic in the short to medium term, it's all your own choice. Just remember that if you really do want to get into AAPL again while it's still near it's low end, it might not end up getting as low as you think it may. Even major bottoms like 2008/2009 went pretty quick, where it recovered out of the drop within 6 months, and was virtually clear of the whole drop 11 months later (july-sept avg, vs aug) Don't miss out if you really want back in. Drops this big are tough to beat...unless leveraging the farm, and really needing the absolute lowest price in a decade in order to make it worth it. (on that shaky data, that would be Yahoo's historical prices, which split adjusted the share price, but not the dividend. One that I looked at would give a dividend yield of something like 18%, but dividing by 7 knocked it down to the 2.6% range I remember. That results in their adjusted close being off, by a lot.
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